Sunday, June16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

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Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:28PM Sunday June 16, 2019 12:43 PM EDT (16:43 UTC) Moonrise 6:57PMMoonset 4:13AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1004 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1004 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure settles off the southeast coast today and remains anchored there into the middle of next week. A weak frontal boundary approaches from the northwest Monday and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 161553
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1153 am edt Sun jun 16 2019

Synopsis
High pressure anchored off the southeast coast for most of the
upcoming week. A weak frontal boundary approaches from the
northwest Monday and Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1150 am edt Sunday...

midday surface analysis shows high pressure off the southeast
coast. Meanwhile, to the west, still watching decaying MCS mcv
over the lower oh tn river valleys. Upper air analysis reveals
quasi-zonal flow aloft, as dampening upper trough over the ohio
valley slides e-ne this aftn.

Past few hrrr runs and the 12z cams are a bit less bullish on
convective chances... With capping inversion looking to stay in
place at least through 19-20z (3-4 pm edt). As such, have
scaled back pops a bit later into the day. Slight chance pops
remain confined mainly along and north of fvx-ric-sby line from
late aftn into the evening hours. Given the dampening weakening
vort MAX and warming mid-levels, did nudge pops down slightly
this evening as well, with the thinking that forcing will remain
maximized north of the local area. However, we have kept high
chance pop confined mainly over the northern neck north of
us360 and over the md eastern shore (held on to likely in
dorchester for now and will re-evaluate as hrrr gets better
handle on convection upstream).

Breezy south-southwest winds this aftn, W highs generally in
the upper 80s and low 90s with a few mid 80s possible near the
coast and along the eastern shore. A few lingering showers
possible late tonight in the piedmont. Otherwise, tonight will
average partly cloudy to mostly clear with low temperatures in
the upper 60s and low 70s.

Short term Monday through Wednesday night
As of 345 am edt Sunday...

a weak frontal boundary will sag slowly southward on Monday and
Tuesday and a gradual increase in shower storm coverage can be
expected as a series of kinks in the westerly flow aloft
traverse the region. Strong daytime heating and seasonally
robust low-level moisture will lead to the potential for a few
strong to severe storms on Monday, especially along and north of
the i-64 corridor closer to enhanced mid level westerly winds.

Spc has outlined a marginal risk for the whole CWA on Monday
with a slight risk area stretching generally from louisa ese to
the eastern shore where the potential for more organized
convection is greatest. The main threat will come in the form of
strong straight-line winds and locally heavy rainfall. Daytime
high temperatures will continue to be quite warm with low 90s
expected on Monday. Overnight low temps will be mild, in upper
60s and low 70s.

Tuesday will be much like Monday with the front inching closer
the area. Slightly increased shower and storms chances are
forecast with the potential for a few strong storms across the
region once again. Highs Tuesday will continue in the upper 80s
and low 90s. Unsettled weather pattern continues for Wednesday
with moist SW flow and strong daytime heating allowing for
scattered showers and storms. Highs in the upper 80s and low 90s
with overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
As of 330 pm edt Saturday...

flow aloft will remain mostly zonal throughout next week, with the
main flow just north of the area. However, several shortwaves aloft
will track from the central plains to the mid atlantic. As the
shortwaves move across the mountains, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop across the area. Highest pops (60-70%)
will be from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning as a trough
moves through the area. A subtle NW flow will return between each
shortwave bring slightly drier air. Temperatures will be near
average for late june. Days with less rain will see highs
approaching 90 (near 80 for md beaches and low-mid 80s for va nc
beaches), while days with more rain coverage will see highs
remaining in the low 80s. Lows will remain near 70 throughout the
extended.

Aviation 16z Sunday through Thursday
As of 640 am edt Sunday...

expecting mostlyVFR conditions through the 16.12z TAF period.

Southwesterly winds 10-15 knots will continue today with some
gusts to ~20 knots possible from mid morning through early
evening. Slight chance of showers and storms across the far
northern tier later this afternoon, generally north of ric but
may impact sby this evening. Not confident enough in placement
or coverage to include in the TAF at this point.

Outlook: sct diurnal convection psbl mainly north of a ric-sby
line thru most of the week.

Marine
As of 345 am Sunday...

surface high pressure is anchored off the southeast coast
early this morning. The pressure gradient has tightened in vicinity
of the mid-atlantic coast, and this is resulting in a 15-25kt ssw
wind N of new point comfort in the bay and N of parramore is. In the
ocean. This is also resulting in 4-5ft seas N of parramore is., and
highest 10-20nm out from the coast. SCA flags remain in effect for
these areas. Otherwise, the wind in ssw 10-20kt with seas of 2-3ft
and waves ~2ft. The gradient will slacken some today, especially
during peak heating. However, there is enough confidence to extend
the SCA in the NRN bay through 10 am, while the SCA for the nrn
ocean zones will continue through 6 pm. There is a potential that
this may need to be extended into tonight, but confidence remains
low.

High pressure remains anchored off the southeast coast Monday
through Thursday, as a stationary boundary remains to the nw. At
this time, sub-sca conditions are expected to prevail with a SW wind
averaging 10-15kt, and seas waves averaging 2-3ft 1-2ft. There is an
increasing chc of aftn evening showers tstms Monday through
Thursday, and there is a potential for nocturnal wind shifts to N nw
(especially across the NRN portion of the marine area) in the wake
of any organized convective systems.

Hydrology
As of 640 am edt Sunday...

the river flood warning remains in effect for the nottoway
river near sebrell. See flsakq for details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz650-
652.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for anz630-
631.

Synopsis... Rhr
near term... Mam rhr
short term... Rhr
long term... Cp
aviation... Rhr
marine... Ajz
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi37 min WSW 14 G 16 78°F 73°F1012.7 hPa
44072 37 mi43 min 78°F 74°F2 ft
44041 - Jamestown, VA 44 mi37 min 80°F 76°F1015.3 hPa
44087 49 mi43 min 73°F2 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi48 minSW 10 G 1510.00 miFair83°F69°F63%1015.2 hPa

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W8NW7SW3CalmCalmS3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E4SW5SW7SW8SW8S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:53 AM EDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.20.90.50.2-0-0.100.20.50.81110.70.50.2-0-0.10.10.30.611.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:14 PM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:20 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.210.70.30.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.70.9110.80.60.30.1-0-00.20.50.81.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.