Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:26PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 5:21 AM EDT (09:21 UTC) Moonrise 1:55PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 402 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Through 7 am..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming w. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely early in the morning.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 20 kt. Waves around 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ600 402 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. An area of low pressure moves off the coast early this morning, then canadian high pressure builds into the mid atlantic region from the north this afternoon into tonight. High pressure remains over the region Thursday and Friday. The next cold front crosses the local area Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 170826
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
426 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure moves off the coast early this morning,
then canadian high pressure builds into the mid-atlantic region
from the north this afternoon into tonight. High pressure
remains over the region Thursday and Friday. The next cold front
crosses the local area during Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 315 am edt Wednesday...

widespread low CIGS and -ra covering the local area attm. Weak
lo pres will be exiting the coast early this morning... Resulting
in the ra and low clouds to shift ese. Quick clearing is
expected from mid morning into midday as winds becomine wnw (a
little gusty at times to 20 mph ESP near the coast). Highs in
the u60s-l70s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
As of 320 am edt Wednesday...

tonight will likely be the coolest night of the season thus far
with cool hi pres building over the region and a clear sky.

Temperatures expected to drop fairly quickly shortly after
sunset. Lows from the m-u30s to l40s for the piedmont into
portions of the interior coastal plain and m40s-l50s at the
coast in SE va NE nc.

Sunny and cool Thu with hi pres settling over the fa. Highs
from the m50s N to around 60f far se... W dew points mainly in
the l-m30s. Even cooler Thu night into Fri morning as 1030mb
hi pres sits over the local area. Lows from the m30s for the
piedmont, interior coastal plain, and interior md ERN shore
(upper 30s for urban areas), and some colder locations
potentially could drop to 32f given ideal radiational cooling
conditions and a dry airmass. Added patchy frost for now... ESP w
of I 95. Elsewhere, lows expected to be in the u30s to l40s... W
locally m-u40s right at the immediate coast in SE va NE nc. Hi
pres gradually slides offshore by Fri aftn. Increasing clouds
(late) W highs in the l-m60s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

at the start of the extended period, a rather vigorous
shortwave trough drops southeastward from canada (along w
associated sfc low pressure coupled with a cold front). As the
cold front approaches the area Fri night-Saturday, subtropical
moisture will stream from the gulf coast to the carolinas srn
mid-atlantic as we briefly go under wsw flow aloft. The
combination of moisture returning, an approaching cold front,
and a series of mid-level disturbances moving from wsw to ene
along the front will allow rain chances to increase throughout
the region. Thus, will maintain pops of 40-50% increasing to
60-70% for much of central south-central va Fri night. As the
front crosses the region during the day on Saturday, the highest
rain chances will shift to the southeastern CWA by the early
afternoon. Maintained categorical pops across SE va NE nc from
12- 18z sat, as the 16 12z gfs ECMWF gem continue to paint a
widespread area 0.25-0.75" of rain south and east of an avc-akq-
mfv line. Lows Fri night in the low-mid 50s ahead of the front.

Forecast highs on Saturday range from the mid-upper 60s. Rain
chances rapidly go down after 17-20z 20 (sat) as the front
pushes southeast of the cwa. Skies quickly clear Sat night as
drier air moves in from the N nw. Lows will range from the low-
mid 40s NW to the low 50s in coastal SE va NE nc.

Expect dry weather to prevail for the remainder of the extended
period. Low-level CAA continues on Sunday (850hpa temperatures
will range from -1c to -4c by the end of the day. Sfc high
pressure moves overhead Sun night. Highs only in the mid-upper
50s on Sunday. With the high (nearly) overhead, expect a cold
night across the area, with mid-upper 30s inland 40s along the
immediate coast. Winds turn back to the south by Mon pm,
allowing for a very slight warm-up. Low pressure (sfc-aloft)
passes well to our north on Tue tue night. This will drag
another cold front through our area late tue-wed. However, this
will likely be a dry fropa. Highs in the upper 50s-low 60s on
mon rising into the mid 60s area-wide on tue, with morning lows
in the upper 30s-mid 40s on tue.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 150 am edt Wednesday...

widespread MVFR CIGS and an area of -ra cover the fa attm. As
weak sfc lo pres passes off the coast early this morning... Ra
and the lower clouds will shift ese. CIGS lifting toVFR after
11-14z 17... Then clearing out for the midday afternoon. Wnw
wind increasing to ~10 kt. There is the potential for winds to
gust to 15-20 kt at ric sby this afternoon. Cool and dry hi
pres prevails Wed night through fri. Another cold front pushes
through the region Sat bringing a high prob for -ra. High
pressure returns sun.

Marine
As of 420 am edt Wednesday...

have hoisted sca's for the entire waters except the upper james
(637) on this morning's fcst issuance, due to the next shot of
caa this evening thru thu. Early this morning, winds were
generally ssw or W 5-10 kt over the waters. Weak low pressure
moving acrs ERN nc, will track ene and out to sea later this
morning into this aftn, allowing winds to turn NW or W 5-15 kt.

Nw or N winds then quickly increase to 15 to 25 kt with gusts up
to 30 kt across most of the waters this evening and tonight, as
the center of strong high pressure builds fm the plains eastward
into the oh valley. Seas will quickly build to 4-6 ft over the
coastal waters, and 3-4 ft over the ches bay. Winds will slowly
diminish fm later Thu morning into Thu night, as the center of
the high moves over the mid atlc region. The high shifts offshore
late Fri and Fri night, allowing for increased ssw winds of
10-20 kt, before another cold front crosses the waters late sat
into Sat night.

Hydrology
As of 320 am edt Wednesday...

numerous river flood warnings continue on the appomattox
basin. Areal flood warning remains active for locations along
the mattaponi river where the level is still steady at
beulahville. See flwakq flsakq for site-specific details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt
Thursday for anz635-636-638.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm edt
Thursday for anz630>632-634-650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm edt
Thursday for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm edt
Thursday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Ajz alb
near term... Alb
short term... Ajz alb
long term... Eri
aviation... Alb
marine... Tmg
hydrology... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi31 min NNW 7.8 G 12 62°F 1018.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi33 min S 11 G 12 1017.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi39 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 57°F 68°F1017.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi31 min W 7.8 G 7.8 60°F 1016.7 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi51 min WNW 1 60°F 1018 hPa60°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi39 min NW 4.1 G 5.1
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi33 min WSW 7 G 8.9 64°F 1017.7 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi33 min Calm G 1.9 62°F 67°F1017.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi33 min WSW 5.1 G 7 62°F 74°F1016.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi33 min N 4.1 G 6 58°F 66°F1017.8 hPa
44072 37 mi31 min SSW 9.7 G 12 65°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi33 min NNW 5.1 G 6 57°F 71°F1017.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi39 min S 8.9 G 11 72°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi33 min NW 5.1 G 7 56°F 1018.5 hPa
44087 49 mi51 min 72°F1 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi46 minN 05.00 miOvercast58°F58°F99%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N3N4N3CalmNE4NE7CalmN3NW3E3E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3CalmCalmS3S4S3SW5SW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3SE3E4CalmS3SE5CalmE3E3E4CalmCalmSE4SE6S4S3CalmS3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:38 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:31 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.40.60.80.9110.90.80.60.50.40.40.50.60.811.11.21.110.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:04 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:19 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.40.50.60.80.910.90.80.70.50.40.40.40.50.70.911.11.110.90.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.