Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:54PM Saturday February 23, 2019 7:54 PM EST (00:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 604 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight, then becoming sw late. Waves 1 foot. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less late this evening and overnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late. Vsby 1 nm or less until late afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 604 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides by north of the region as a frontal lingers over the southeast states. The front will lift back north as a warm front tonight into Sunday morning. A cold front will then cross the region late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. High pressure builds in from the west late Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 232352
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
652 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will move north along the DELMARVA peninsula this
evening, before moving northeast and away from the region later
tonight. A warm front approaches from the south Sunday morning
with a strong cold front crossing the area in the afternoon.

Dry and cool weather expected Monday through Tuesday.

Near term through Sunday
As of 645 pm est Saturday...

latest msas has a zipper low apprchg the albemarle sound from
the south and is progged to lift nne along the ERN shore this
evening then off to the NE overnight. The first batch of steady
rain with varying intensities is now shifting toward the coast
with much lighter returns over the piedmont. High res data
supports categorical pops ERN third of the fa this evening as
this low moves up the coast. Although there is a "lull" in the
pcpn west of i95, expect this to fill back in with light rain
and drizzle as abundant moisture remains trapped in the low levels.

All this before the second batch of overspreads the area towards
sunrise ahead of an apprchg warm front from the south and cold
front from the west.

Had to adjust temps down a bit given readings dropped to or just
below forecasted mins during the mdt-hvy rain this aftrn. In
addition, as the zipper low moves north, it will turn the winds
to the north again on its back side basically locking in the cold
air wedge already in place. Thus, temps remain close to their
current values thru the night expect near the coast where some
fluctuation will occur due to the movement of the low.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
As of 225 pm est Saturday...

the warm front will struggle to push north across the fa fa sun
morning... But still expecting significant widespread coverage
of clouds and an area of ra to be hanging around. Lo pres
tracking towards SE canada will push its associated cold front
across the mountains early... Then through the local area early-
mid afternoon. Ssw winds a bit gusty... ESP near the coast sun
morning as temperatures dew points continue to rise. Clearing
and lowering pops Sun afternoon as SW winds become gusty to
30-40 mph. Going a bit lower than guidance for high temperatures
(in case clearing begins a tad later)... Though readings should
still reach well through the 60s into the m70s.

Rainfall totals into Sun afternoon will range from 1-1.5"... Except
0.5-1" near S of the va-nc border. River flood warnings continue
for the james, nottoway, and meherrin rivers due to this extended
period of precip. See the hydro section below for further
details.

Drying out... Cooling down and remaining breezy (highest speeds
near the coast) Sun night W lows from the l30s far NW to the l40s
se. Sunny and cool Mon W breezy W winds... Gusty to 30-40 mph
still on the ERN shore. Highs in the l-m50s at the coast to the
u50s-around 60f elsewhere. Clear W calming winds Mon night. Lows
in the u20s-l30s inland... M-u30s along the coast in SE va-ne nc.

Partly sunny N mostly sunny S Tue W highs from the u40s-l50s
near the coast to the u50s-l60s inland.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
As of 130 pm est Saturday...

zonal flow aloft w-e across the CONUS will dominate the
extended forecast period. Blend of the guidance shows a few
potential pcpn events... Late Wed into thu... Late Thu night into
fri... Then again next sat. 00z 23 ECMWF was drier than most other
models but given the strong wly flow aloft through the period... Can't
count on any extended period of dry wx during the next week. There
will also be a gradual pressing of colder air ese from the plains
states canada... Resulting in temperatures average near to slightly
blo normal.

Lows Tue night from the u20s N to the m-u30s se. Highs Wed from
the m-u40s near the coast to the m-u50s inland. Lows Wed night
in the l-m30s N to the u30s-around 40f se. Highs Thu from 45-50f
near the coast to the m-u50s inland. Lows Thu night from the
l-m30s N and NW (where there might be a ra sn mix late) to the
l40s se. Highs Fri from the l-m40s N to around 50f in NE nc.

Lows Fri night in the l30s NW to the l40s se. Highs Sat from the
u40s to m50s.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 645 pm est Saturday...

low pressure quickly lifts north along the DELMARVA peninsula
this evening then NE of the region late tonite. Widespread ifr
conditions continue across the region along with areas of rain,
fog and drizzle. Ifr conditions continue into Sun morning as a
second batch of rain overspreads the area late tonite and sun
morning ahead of an apprchg warm front from the south and cold
front the west.

Rapid drying occurs Sun afternoon behind the cold front. Low
clouds quickly scour out with the remaining of the column drying
after 18z. Tightening pressure gradient results in a quick ramp
up in winds Sun afternoon. SW winds become W at 20-30 kts with
locally higher gusts possible. In addition, some llws up to 45
kts will develop in the lowest 2k ft due to the gusty winds.

Outlook...

vfr conditions expected Mon and Tue as high pressure builds into
the area. Gusty winds continue Sun night and Mon morning before
slowly diminishing Mon afternoon and evening.

Marine
As of 235 pm est Saturday...

strong sfc high pressure centered north of the area will move east
off the northern mid-atlantic southern new england coast late this
aftn, before pushing well offshore tonight early Sunday.

Meanwhile, a sfc trough of low pressure extends east across the
southern states and ene off the SE coast. The models generally keep
sub-sca conditions in place late this aftn eve, except south of the
va nc border where NE winds will continue to gust to 25 kt and seas
will maintain 4-5 ft through early eve. SCA currently in effect to
address this. As the boundary to the south continues to lift n
later tonight, winds will come down a bit, while shifting to the sse
then ssw overnight early Sunday morning. Once the winds lessen this
evening and overnight, expect the potential for some fog to develop
over the coastal waters south of parramore, the lower bay, lower
james river and currituck sound. Have issued a marine dense fog
advisory from 00z-09z Sun to account for this. There is some
indication that marine fog may spread north overnight and this is
something we will continue to monitor for further expansion of the
advisory.

With the approach of a cold front from the west on Sunday and a
significant tightening of the pressure gradient, expect sca
conditions to develop over all zones by late morning or aftn (sw
winds sustained to 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt). Scas now in
effect for this. The front is expected to move across the region
late Sun aftn into Sun evening, with a brief surge of potentially
higher winds possible in the immediate wake of the front with
pressure rises of 7-9 mb 6hr for the period ending Sun evening. A
gale watch has been upgraded to a warning for the coastal waters n
of parramore island for Sun eve through Mon where a prolonged period
of W to NW winds gusting to ~40 kt is expected. For the remainder of
the area, opted to stay with an SCA given only the brief period of
potentially higher winds with the front late Sat aftn evening. The
offshore flow will keep seas from building much above 5-6 ft. For
mon, a gradual diminishing of the winds seas is expected, with the
strongest winds over the northern coastal waters. By Monday night,
high pressure is building into the area and with the cold advection
weakening, should see conditions relaxing below SCA levels. This
area of high pressure will slowly track across the region through
the mid week time period with generally benign conditions expected
through midweek.

Hydrology
As of 645 pm est Saturday...

flood warnings cont portions of the james, nottoway and meherrin
rivers into early next week. Richmond westham now expected to
go to moderate flooding. Potential for mottoax on the appomattox
and cartersville on the james to reach minor flooding as well.

See flwakq flsakq for details.

Climate
As of 330 am est Saturday...

very warm temperatures are expected on Sunday but record highs
are currently not forecast. For reference they are listed below:
* site: record high for Sun 2 24
* ric: 82 (1985)
* orf: 82 (2012)
* sby: 77 (2012)
* ecg: 79 (1985)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am Sunday to 1 pm est Monday for
anz633-635>638-654-656.

Dense fog advisory until 5 am est Sunday for anz632>634-638-
654-656-658.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Sunday to 4 pm est Monday for
anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory from 10 am to 7 pm est Sunday for anz650-
652.

Gale warning from 7 pm Sunday to 4 pm est Monday for anz650-
652.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Monday for anz658.

Synopsis... Tmg rhr
near term... Mpr
short term... Alb
long term... Alb
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jdm lkb
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi54 min ENE 22 G 25 1021.4 hPa (-3.5)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi54 min E 7 G 9.9 41°F 41°F1021.6 hPa (-3.5)
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi36 min E 5.8 G 7.8 39°F 40°F1022.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi60 min NNE 7 G 9.9
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi84 min NE 1.9 42°F 1022 hPa41°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi54 min E 22 G 25 44°F 1019.9 hPa (-4.3)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi54 min ENE 16 G 20 43°F 45°F1020.9 hPa (-2.9)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi54 min E 13 G 16 44°F 45°F1020 hPa (-3.5)
44072 37 mi44 min 44°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi54 min ENE 12 G 15 41°F 43°F1022.3 hPa (-3.5)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi54 min E 14 G 21 44°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi54 min N 7 G 9.9 40°F 40°F1022.7 hPa (-2.6)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi54 min NNE 12 G 14 40°F 1023.8 hPa (-2.4)
44087 49 mi54 min 43°F4 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi59 minE 610.00 miOvercast42°F41°F100%1021.3 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmN3CalmNE5E5E6NE5NE7E6NE5NE7E11E7Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE4N3E3N3NE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW7SE7NW6N3W5W8SW5W6SW3SW5SW4SW4W5SW5W5SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:19 AM EST     1.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:34 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:42 PM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:52 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.11.21.210.70.30-0.2-0.2-00.30.60.91.11.110.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:40 AM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:07 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:03 PM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:25 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.11.210.80.50.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.40.811.110.80.50.2-0-0.2-0.20

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.