Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:22PM Friday March 24, 2017 8:03 PM EDT (00:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:57AMMoonset 2:49PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 708 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Tonight..SW winds 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
ANZ600 708 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains off the mid atlantic coast through the weekend. A weak backdoor front will drop across the northern waters late Saturday night before returning north as a warm front on Sunday. A cold front will cross the waters late Tuesday night...with light onshore flow developing for late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 241956
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
356 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains offshore the mid-atlantic coast through
Saturday. An upper level disturbance lifts over the region
Sunday. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday night.

Near term /through Saturday/
Upper level height continue to build across the region this
afternoon and the initial shortwave and warm advection that
brought clouds and a little light rain to the area continues to
move NE away from the area. Meanwhile at the surface high
pressure remains anchored off the SE us coast which is allowing
southerly to southwesterly flow to develop. With this set
up... Seeing much of the cloud cover that existed earlier in the
day begin to scatter out and the the low level moisture is
quickly recovering with dew points surging into the 40s this
afternoon. This pattern will persist through tonight and
Saturday with southwest flow and the low level moisture
continuing to increase with sfc dew points climbing into the
upper 40s and lower 50s. So expect dry weather both periods with
much warmer readings tonight in the lower 50s and highs tomorrow
in the low to mids 70s for most areas.

Short term /Saturday night through Monday/
The period begins on the dry side the upper short wave ride and
sfc high still in control of the region weather. The southerly
flow will continue to keep the mild air in place with another
night with lows in the 50s. The one except to this could be a
back door front that slides into the DELMARVA late Saturday
night. The NAM was much more aggressive with this feature and
allowed cooler air to make its way into the lower md eastern
shore. Have cooled temperatures there toward morning and added
some additional clouds. Did not add any pops however.

The next upper level shortwave is progged to move through the
ohio valley into the great lake states late Sunday into Monday
morning. The best forcing with this wave will remain north and
west of the area with no real surface reflection as the initial
boundary weakens and dissipates as the next trough begins to
lift out of the southern plains. Have dropped pops back to
chance values with the best forcing being so far to the north
and west of the area. The GFS is a bit quicker to pull the
chances of rain out compare to the NAM so have held on to some
pops early Monday in the DELMARVA but went dry there after as
the shortwave ridge between the two systems builds over the
area. For temperatures, see very little change as the air mass
remain the same. So expect highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
each day and lows Sunday night in the low to mid 50s.

Long term /Monday night through Friday/
Medium range period will remain mild, courtesy of warm southerly
flow from lingering high pressure just offshore of the mid-atlantic
coast. Other main weather feature of note will be a rather
progressive mid-level shortwave traversing the western/central conus
late sat-Monday, before lifting e-ne across the mid-south toward the
local area on Tuesday. High end chance pop remains in place for
showers and sct t-storms. While the system will be weakening, given
decent instability and favorable diurnal timing, will continue
thunder wording for all but far NE zones (later timing). Shortwave
ridging behind the wave will bring slightly cooler, albeit still
mild, and drying wx Wed and thu. Forecast highs mainly in the 60s to
near 70 far north and along the immediate coast... 70s to near 80
west of the bay on Tuesday, 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday... With temps
trending back to around climo normal for the latter half of next
week. Next chance of rain comes by the end of the period late next
week in association with another weakening southern stream upper low
traversing the southern tier of the country. For now, rain chances
are re-introduced by late on thu/fri.

Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/
Vfr conditions are expected to continue through the forecast
period. Mid level clouds have worked into portions of the
region this afternoon with bases at or above 9000 feet.

Satellite imagery has shown a decreasing trend in cloud cover
with clouds expected to continue to dissipate through the
afternoon and evening. Winds have turned to the southwest and
increased to 10-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots at times
this afternoon. Winds are forecast to diminish later this
evening and overnight. High clouds work into the area late
tonight and into Saturday.

Outlook: periods of sub-vfr ceilings/visbilities due to fog will
be possible on both Sunday and Monday morning. Scattered showers
are expected to develop late in the day on Sunday. Unsettled
conditions are forecast to continue through early next week with
the highest potential of showers on Tuesday.

Marine
Latest obs reflect increasing ssw flow across the waters this
afternoon, courtesy of tightening pressure gradient between surface
high pressure just offshore and developing low pressure over the
plains. As expected, nearshore winds have been gusty today, and have
noted some gusts to near SCA thresholds in the lower james river and
nearshore along the western shore of the bay. However, given still
cool water temps, gusts have been largely unable to mix down to the
water surface. Thus, will carry winds around 15kt for the balance of
the aftn, dropping off slightly this evening. Similar setup for
tomorrow, albeit with mixing a bit more shallow. Ssw flow 10-15 kt,
a few gusts to near SCA possible in the rivers and northern bay
zones. A weak backdoor front will drop across northern waters
tomorrow night, with winds shifting around to the nne post-frontal
mainly north of parramore island and eventually reaching the upper
bay north of new point comfort into early Sunday morning. Farther
south, s-sw flow persists AOB 15 kt.

Southerly flow resumes across northern waters by later Sunday as the
weak front lifts back north/washes out. Relatively benign marine
persist Sunday night and Monday, with ssw winds mainly AOB 15 kt.

Next front crosses the waters on Tuesday evening into Wednesday,
with winds veering nnw before becoming onshore for the late week
period. Seas averaging 2-3 ft nearshore... Waves 1-2 ft. However, a
brief period of 4-5 footers possible on Tuesday near offshore zones
with increasing SW flow.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ess
near term... Ess
short term... Ess
long term... Mam
aviation... Ajb
marine... Alb/mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi34 min SW 9.7 G 9.7 56°F 1024.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi46 min S 19 G 20 1024.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi46 min WSW 11 G 16 65°F 48°F1022.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi34 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 1022.1 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi94 min SSW 2.9 68°F 1025 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi46 min SW 7 G 8
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi46 min SW 16 G 18 61°F 1023.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi46 min SW 7 G 8.9 52°F 50°F1024 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi46 min SW 9.9 G 15 66°F 47°F1024.3 hPa
44072 37 mi34 min SW 9.7 G 9.7 56°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi46 min S 9.9 G 11 51°F 49°F1023.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi46 min SW 8.9 G 14 62°F 45°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi46 min SSW 9.9 G 12 47°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 44 mi34 min SSW 9.7 G 12 65°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi46 min SW 13 G 17 64°F 1022.7 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi69 minSSW 810.00 miFair66°F44°F45%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5SE5E4SE5SE7SE9
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1 day agoN6CalmN4N3N3NE3NE3CalmNE3CalmNE4N3NE3E8E5
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2 days agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW3CalmN3N14
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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
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Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:36 AM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:58 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:59 PM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.20.10.20.30.50.811.11.110.80.60.40.20.10.20.40.60.811.11

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:01 AM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:26 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:21 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.50.30.10.10.20.30.60.81110.90.70.40.20.10.10.20.40.70.911

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.