Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:59PM Sunday September 24, 2017 4:44 AM EDT (08:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 8:52PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 417 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Through 7 am..NW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot...building to 2 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 417 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered north of the area today into tonight, while the remnants of jose eventually dissipates well off the southern new england coast. Hurricane maria will move slowly northward off the southeast coast tonight through the middle of next week. SEe the national hurricane center advisories for details. SWells from hurricane maria will begin to impact coastal area tonight.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240805
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
405 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the mid atlantic today
through Monday. Meanwhile, hurricane maria will gradually track
north over the atlantic between the southeast coast and bermuda.

Maria is forecast to approach the outer banks Tuesday into
Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front.

Near term through tonight
Current WV imagery shows a broad mid upper high extending from
the mid-mississippi valley across the great lakes and into the
northeast conus, with surface high pressure co-located with the
upper anticyclone. Hurricane maria is gradually pushing nwd N of
the bahamas and well E of the fl coast. Additionally, an upper
low is near the NRN gulf coast. Locally, the sky is mostly clear
early this morning under the influence of high pressure. There
is some patchy shallow ground fog. Temperatures generally range
through the 60s, with some upper 50s over the NW piedmont. The
high will remain nearly stationary today and tonight as maria
slowly moves nwd. Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm (+1-1.5 st
dev) this afternoon, with high temperatures in the upper 80s
inland, with low mid 80s at the coast. The SRN fringe of the
high will begin to break down late tonight as maria continues to
move nwd resulting in some increasing clouds across SE va ne
nc. Elsewhere, patchy fog is possible where the sky remains
mostly clear. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s.

Short term Monday through Tuesday
Maria continues to trundle nwd Monday with the deep layer high
remaining anchored N of the region. Some outer bands of the
tropical cyclone will result in partly to mostly cloudy
conditions along the coast, with partly to mostly sunny
conditions farther inland. Deep layer moisture remains limited
with only a slight chc pop for coastal NE nc. A modest
tightening of the pressure gradient will result in a ~15 mph ne
wind across coastal SE va NE nc with gusts to ~20 mph. High
temperatures will remain above normal ranging from the upper 70s
to around 80f at the coast to the mid upper 80s farther inland.

There is decent model agreement showing maria reaching about
200mi SE of CAPE hatteras by 12z Tuesday. Maria continues to
push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of due N as the upper low
drops sewd across fl. Increasing moisture and some outer banded
features will result in 20-40% pops along and E of i-95
Tuesday, with 40-50% for coastal SE va NE nc. QPF will be
minimal for most areas, but there could be some localized
0.25-0.5" amounts for coastal SE va NE nc. Lows will generally
be in the mid 60s to low 70s Tuesday night, with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming
breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to 15-20 mph
along the coast Tuesday, with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
First part of the extended, Tuesday night through Thursday,
will be predicated on future track of hurricane maria. Latest
nhc track is a bit further west than 24 hours ago, which
increases the potential for some rainfall near the bay ocean,
somewhat stronger winds, higher seas, and some coastal
flooding. Have utilized superblend for tangible weather during
this period, given potential uncertainty in the track.

Models quite consistent after the daytime hours Thursday in
taking maria fairly quickly northeastward away from the area. In
advance of upper trof dropping southeastward from canada. This
trof and associated cold front move into the region next
Saturday day 7 .

Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday, with highs
from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures cool into the 70s
Friday Saturday in the wake of hurricane maria. Lows Tuesday
night through Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to around
70f, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night, and in the
50s Friday night.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure remains situated over the ERN great lakes early
this morning, with hurricane maria tracking nwd N of the
bahamas. Mostly clear early this morning with some bands of thin
cirrus. Shallow ground fog is possible through 12z (primarily
sby phf) with weak flow and decent radiational cooling. Any fog
will dissipate quickly after 12z with sunny conditions expected
today with a NE wind of 5-10kt. High pressure remains anchored
n of the region tonight as maria continues to track nwd. Mostly
clear this evening, with increasing clouds later tonight across
se va NE nc with some MVFR CIGS possible. Otherwise, patchy fog
is possible where the sky remains mostly clear overnight.

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy Monday with a 10-15kt NE wind.

Increasing moisture and some distant banding from maria will
result in a 40-50% chc of showers for orf ecg and 20-40% for
ric sby phf. Conditions Tuesday night Wednesday Wednesday night
will largely be dictated by how close maria gets to the outer
banks. A closer approach will result in breezy to windy
conditions, especially at orf ecg along with an increased chc of
rain and degraded flight conditions. A cold front approaches
from the NW Thursday and pushes maria farther offshore.

Marine
Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with
seas generally 4-6 ft and the current small craft for hazardous
seas will continue in effect through Mon night (after that
winds will increase and the headlines will likely be converted
to the more usual small craft advsy). Overall, expect seas of
4-6 ft to persist today tonight, then build more significantly
mon-wed, as ese swell and increasing NE winds arrive from slow
moving maria. The bulk of the forecast guidance (as well as the
official NHC forecast) still keeps maria offshore of the
carolinas Tue into thu, before it gets kicked quickly ene out to
sea Thu night into Fri night. Based on the latest guidance,
have maintained increased winds and seas fcst for tue-thu, with
at least SCA conditions expected all areas and the potential
for gales over the lower bay coastal waters (or tropical
headlines). Either way, seas over the coastal waters should
easily reach 10 ft or greater from tue-thu. Monitor the nhc
forecast for the official forecast track of maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures this aftn avg 1.0 to 1.5 ft across the entire
area. Minor flooding continues mainly across the upper bay from
lewisetta to bishops head through this evening. The following
high tide overnight early Sunday will tend to be slightly lower
than the one this evening but will be close enough to just
extend the coastal flood advisory through Sun morning. Elsewhere
over the mid lower bay, the water levels peaked a few tenths
below minor flood thresholds earlier today, with the overnight
tide expected to be slightly lower so did not issue any
headlines for these areas. Water levels will tend to remain
elevated sun-mon, but overall most places should remain below
any minor flood thresholds. Will need to watch for additional
flooding next week, especially by later Tue and Wed (and
perhaps thu). This will depend on the exact track of maria, but
the potential for significant tidal flooding exists (especially
over locations adjacent to the lower bay and southern va NE nc
waters. High surf advisories likely will be needed by late mon
or Tue as well.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues through today, as 3-5 ft nearshore waves and
13-15 second swell persists.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 9 am edt this morning for
mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 7 am edt this morning for vaz075-
077.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Tuesday
for anz650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Ajz bmd
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz bmd
long term... Ajz alb wrs
aviation... Ajz
marine... Lkb tmg
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi34 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 1017.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi44 min WSW 5.1 G 5.1 1017.5 hPa (-0.7)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi44 min W 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 77°F1017 hPa (-0.4)
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi34 min N 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 1016.3 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi74 min WSW 1.9 66°F 1018 hPa65°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi44 min NNW 8 G 8.9
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi44 min W 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 1017.5 hPa (-0.6)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi44 min Calm G 1.9 67°F 76°F1016.8 hPa (-0.8)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi44 min W 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 77°F1016.7 hPa (-0.6)
44072 37 mi34 min W 3.9 G 3.9 74°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi44 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 77°F1017.3 hPa (+0.0)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi44 min NNW 5.1 G 6 70°F 76°F1016.9 hPa (+0.0)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi44 min Calm G 1 76°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 44 mi34 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi44 min NW 4.1 G 7 73°F 1018 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair63°F60°F94%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW4NW3N5N3N5NE5N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW3W4CalmNW5NW3N5CalmW6CalmW4W3CalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N6N3N7CalmN6N3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:56 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:58 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:19 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:42 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.711.11.21.10.90.70.40.20.20.20.40.711.21.31.31.20.90.70.40.30.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:16 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:32 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:38 PM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:16 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.811.11.110.80.50.30.20.20.30.50.81.11.21.21.210.70.50.30.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.