Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:50PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 6:45 AM EST (11:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 9:41PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 635 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Today..NW winds 15 kt, diminishing to 5 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot late.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ600 635 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds over the area during the day today. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the southwest on Friday and crosses the area this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 120902
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
402 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail over the mid-atlantic through
Thursday. Low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday
night into Friday, and tracks across the region Friday afternoon
through early Saturday. An upper level trough will remain over
the area through Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 400 am est Wednesday...

current GOES wv data shows an upper trough pushing off the new
england and mid-atlantic coasts, ahead of a ridge over ohio
valley. A NRN stream trough is digging across the midwest, with
a SRN stream trough lagging back over the NRN baja peninsula and
desert sw. At the surface, 1027mb high pressure is centered
over the NRN gulf coast, with low pressure E of CAPE cod. There
was some light mixing earlier in wsw flow, but most locations
away from the coast are now decoupling, and temperatures are
dropping into the low 20s where snow cover is present under a
clear sky. Closer to the coast, temperatures are holding in the
low mid 30s.

High pressure gradually slides off the southeast coast today.

Sunny this morning with some high clouds arriving this aftn.

High temperatures today range from the low mid 40s inland, to
the mid upper 40s toward the coast, with a light W or NW wind
this morning becoming SE in the aftn.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
As of 400 am est Wednesday...

a weak trough (the one over the midwest early this
morning) clips the NRN mid-atlantic Thursday, with high pressure
building across new england in the wake of this system. Temperatures
will be slow to moderate Thursday, although dewpoints rising into
the low mid 30s should hasten snow melt. Remaining dry tonight to
Thursday with lows in the upper 20s low 30s Thursday morning,
followed by highs in the mid 40s inland, to the low mid 50s in se
va NE nc.

The aforementioned SRN stream trough will reach ERN tx la by late
Thursday night, with a moist frontal band emerging from the gulf
into the deep south ahead of the low. Continued dry Thursday night
with lows in the low 30s inland to the upper 30s low 40s at the
coast.

The upper level system traverses the deep south Friday into Friday
night, as the moist frontal band pushes toward the mid-atlantic
Friday aftn into Friday night. 12 00z models remain in good
agreement with a warm and wet pattern prevailing Friday aftn into
Friday night. Storm total QPF of 0.75-1.5" is expected, with up to
2.0" possible through 12z Saturday. This combined saturated ground
from snowmelt will bring potential flooding. A flood watch will
certainly be worth consideration with later forecast packages if
current setup remains in place in modeled data, and will continue to
make a mention in hwo, given pops in the 70-90% range. Mmefs still
depicts minor river flooding with moderate flooding possible.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 355 pm est Tuesday...

Saturday's low pressure system departs offshore by Sunday morning
with residual showers possible across far southern va and northeast
nc as the upper level low swings across the region. Still some
disagreement between the models on this feature, decided to go
closer to the ecm fv3. Ecm is still consistent with showing low
pressure redevelop off the nc coast Sunday night into Monday.

This would allow for rain showers to linger across the east into
Monday morning. The operational GFS is more progressive with
the upper level low, thus has dry weather by Sunday afternoon.

Introduced chance pops across the south and southeast Sunday
afternoon into Monday morning to take into account both model
solutions. Dry weather Monday and Tuesday as high pressure
builds back across the region. Temperatures moderate by this
weekend with southerly flow ahead of the next low pressure
system, currently have highs in the lower 50s NW to the low mid
60s across the SE for Saturday. Sunday will feature highs in the
low to mid 50s across the region. Temperatures trend cooler
early next week as cool high pressure builds across the area.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 1230 am est Wednesday...

high pressure is centered over the deep south early this
morning, and it will gradually slide across the southeast coast
today and move offshore tonight. Clear early this morning, with
some high clouds arriving later this aftn into tonight. A light
wsw wind early will become nw, and then become sse (locally ene
at orf) as high pressure slides off the coast later this aftn.

High pressure continues to prevail Thursday into Thursday night.

Low pressure approaches from the SW Friday and moves across the
area Friday night into Saturday bringing rain and degraded
flight conditions. An upper level trough lingers over the area
into Sunday.

Marine
As of 400 am est Wednesday...

latest sfc analysis indicates low pressure well offshore of the
mid- atlantic northeast coast, with weak sfc troughing over wrn
va. Winds are out of the NW nnw at 10-15 kt over the bay 15-20
kt over the ocean. Since buoy 44009 is reporting ~4 ft seas ~20
nm offshore of the md de border (w only 3.3 ft seas at the
wallops buoy), opted to cancel all scas north of CAPE charles. A
weak shortwave trough aloft will be passing just to our NE from
now through around mid-morning. This will bring weak cold
advection to the region (mainly north), but wind gusts will
likely stay just below SCA thresholds over the bay and ocean
zones. Cannot rule out a few gusts to SCA thresholds in elevated
areas (mainly N of parramore island), but these will be
infrequent short-lived. Left scas as is south of CAPE charles
(mainly for areas close to 20 nm offshore), but may need to
cancel with the 7 am update if buoys continue to show decreasing
seas.

Tranquil marine conditions are in store for the mid week period
as high pressure builds into the area from the west. Longer
term model guidance shows low pressure (sfc-aloft) approaching
the area on Friday. The latest 00z 12 gfs ECMWF gem are in
relative agreement that sfc low pressure develops near or just
south of the region late fri-sat as an upper low slowly moves
eastward across the deep south. This first area of sfc low
pressure likely moves offshore by late in the day on sat. The
upper low may approach the region late this weekend as a
secondary area of low pressure deepens offshore. However, the
timing placement of the upper low vary substantially among the
latest gfs ECMWF gem. Will continue to show increasing
winds seas beginning Friday with the potential for sca
conditions (most likely across offshore zones) through Sunday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ajz
marine... Eri


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last
24hr
N15
N16
N19
N16
N15
N15
NW13
G17
NW15
NW15
N7
W8
W11
W10
SW15
SW14
SW14
SW13
G16
W13
G16
NW13
NW12
NW9
NW6
NW10
NW13
1 day
ago
N26
N23
N24
N24
N25
N26
N23
N22
N21
N19
G23
N20
G25
N17
N18
N19
N19
N17
N16
N18
N15
N16
N17
N17
N19
N17
2 days
ago
NE16
NE16
N18
NE15
NE15
NE16
N21
NE25
NE29
NE27
NE29
NE29
N29
N32
NE30
G37
N29
N29
N28
N28
N31
N27
G33
N29
G35
N27
N27

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair20°F19°F97%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last 24hrNW4CalmNW3CalmNW4N6CalmW7W5W4CalmCalmCalmS4S4SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN5N4N5N6N5N5N5N4N5N3NW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNW3
2 days agoN3N4N3CalmN4N6N5N6N4N4N3N4NE4N8N6N8
G14
N7N6N6N6N4N8N5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:36 AM EST     0.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:31 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:50 PM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:21 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.60.80.90.90.80.60.40.20.10.10.20.40.70.91.11.110.80.60.40.20.10.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Fleet Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:57 AM EST     0.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:04 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:11 PM EST     1.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:41 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:54 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.50.70.80.90.80.70.50.30.20.10.20.30.50.81110.90.70.50.30.10.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.