Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:50PM Friday April 26, 2019 1:50 AM EDT (05:50 UTC) Moonrise 1:02AMMoonset 11:03AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1231 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt this morning through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late in the evening, then becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W late. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1231 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A warm front will slowly lift north across the area overnight. A strong cold front crosses the region late Friday. High pressure builds into the area on Saturday, with another area of low pressure passing by to the north on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260527
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
127 am edt Fri apr 26 2019

Synopsis
A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A strong cold
front crosses the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure
builds into the area on Saturday, with another area of low pressure
passing by to the north on Sunday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 350 pm edt Thursday...

frontal boundary remains situated from SE va wnw through the
piedmont. Winds onshore N of the boundary... Ssw to the s. That
front will be slow to lift nne overnight. Shras will accompany
the front moving nne... Highest pop across the wnw portions of
the fa. St will be problematic over the lower md eastern shore
as the onshore flow persists. Otw... Partly to mostly cloudy
overnight W lows in the m-u50s on the ERN shore to the l-m60s
elsewhere.

Short term 6 am this morning through Sunday
As of 350 pm edt Thursday...

for fri, the main issue will be with the potential for severe wx
as a strong cold front pushes across the area during the
aftn early evening hrs. Overall, the 12z models today are in
better agreement regarding the timing of the front and
associated pops and severe wx potential. Latest SPC day 2
outlook now has the entire CWA into a slight risk for severe
with wind damage the primary threat. The pattern features a
strong upper low centered over canada, but with strong
shortwave energy rotating south through the tn valley and across
the carolinas by aftn. There will be some backing of the low
level winds to a near due south direction, with strong SW winds
in the h85 to h7 layer. Thus, shear will be impressive though
certainly not to the extent of last Friday's event. Instability
will tend to be modest given a decent coverage of
showers isolated tstms through the morning hrs (though most of
the guidances suggest a few hrs with a lull during the mid late
morning early aftn). While an isolated tornado will be possible,
the main threat will be straight line winds, primarily from
early aftn through early evening (will mention this in the hwo).

Overall, with slightly higher temperatures and instability,
think areas of SE va NE nc have the greatest risk for severe wx
even though the entire CWA is in a slight risk. Highs around 70
f NW to the upper 70s around 80 f far se.

The front clears the coast shortly after 00z sat, taking most
pcpn with it. Evening pops most areas with lingering shower chc
along the coast through midnite. Otw, decreasing clouds west
and turning cooler. Lows Fri night lower 40s NW to mid 50s
se.

High pressure builds into the sern states Sat behind the departing
low. Mostly sunny with lower humidity. Highs mid-upr 60s near the
water, lwr 70s inland. Mstly clr Sat eve with increasing clouds
after midnite. Lows in the 50s. Weak system passing by N of the
area will bring a period of more clouds and a 20% pop to nrn
areas early Sunday. Highs in the 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 330 pm edt Wednesday...

decent CAA will move into the area Sunday afternoon behind a cold
front. With high pressure moving in, most inland locations will drop
into the mid 40s by Monday morning. High pressure will move off the
coast Monday and winds will turn out of the south. A frontal
boundary will stall just north of the area wed-fri. A few waves of
low pressure will move along the boundary bring a chance of rain and
showers, mostly north of the cwa. With the uncertainty of the
location of the boundary, slight pops (20-30%) were added with iso
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Current forecast has high in the low
80s each day and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
As of 130 am edt Friday...

latest msas shows a warm front across va which is progged to lift
north of the local area later this morning. This puts the area in
the warm sector ahead of a strong cold front that will cross the
area between 18z-00z.VFR conditions to start off the period but
will have to watch sct-bkn st along the ERN shore thru 12z.

South winds increase after 12z and become gusty btwn 25-30 kts as
the pressure gradient increases ahead of the cold front. Shwrs will
be sct out ahead of the front this morning but expect CIGS to remain
in theVFR category, although vsbys may lower for a short time during
any heavier rainfall.

The latest models continue to show a line of convection as the cold
front crosses the area. SPC has the entire area in a slght risk for
damaging wind gusts with this line. Given this scenario, confidence
high enough so that I went ahead and tried to time this line of tstms
across the area this aftrn with a few hr tempo group first starting
at ric (18-21z), phf (19-22z), sby orf (20-23z) and ecg (20-24z).

MVFR cigs, ifr vsbys in hvy rain along with gusts over 30 kts psbl.

Sct shwrs linger behind the front for a few hrs before drier air
filters in from the west after midnight.

Outlook...

vfr dry with high pressure returning Sat along with gusty wnw winds.

MainlyVFR conditions continue Sun mon.

Marine
As of 350 pm edt Thursday...

a warm front is currently located just south of a majority of the
waters. North of this boundary winds are generally out of the east
around 10 knots. South of this boundary over the southern coastal
waters, winds are out of the south at around 10 to 15 knots. The
warm front gradually lifts north this evening and overnight, turning
the winds to the S and SW by early Friday morning for all of the
waters. Meanwhile, low pressure and the associated cold front will
approach the region tonight into Friday before crossing the region
Friday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this front, SW winds will be
on the increase, becoming 15 to 25 knots over a majority of the
waters by the afternoon hours. As a result, a small craft advisory
is now in effect for all of the waters beginning Friday late morning
and continuing through Saturday. In addition to the breezy
conditions out ahead of the front, a line of showers and
thunderstorms (some strong to severe) will develop and cross the
waters by Friday evening. These storms may produce damaging wind
gusts and special marine warnings may be needed Friday evening into
the overnight hours.

The front crosses the waters late Friday into Saturday morning with
winds shifting to the W and NW behind the boundary. Winds will
increase late Friday and remain gusty through much of the day on
Saturday. Wind gusts to 30 knots will likely be common, especially
during the Friday overnight hours into early Saturday morning. Winds
may briefly gust to 35 knots over the northern most coastal waters
early Saturday morning, however these will likely be brief and
confined to mainly out 20 nm, thus no gale headlines at this time.

Expect a slow diminishing trend in winds from south to north through
the day Saturday as low pressure departs and high pressure builds
back over the southeastern states. All small craft advisories should
be allowed to expire by Saturday evening.

Sub-sca conditions are expected late Saturday into Sunday with high
pressure influencing the weather pattern. A weak disturbance passes
to the north of the region during the day on Sunday, dragging
another cold front across the region. This may bring another period
of SCA conditions Sunday into Monday with winds turning to the nw
behind the front. Calmer marine conditions are anticipated for next
week.

In additions to the gusty conditions Friday evening into Saturday,
waves seas will also be on the increase. Seas build to 4 to 7 feet
with seas as high as 8 feet across the north and out 20 nm. Waves in
the bay build to around 3 to 4 feet. Seas diminish through the day
on Saturday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt
Saturday for anz635>637-650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 pm edt
Saturday for anz630>632-634-638.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 pm edt
Saturday for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 pm edt
Saturday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Alb lkb
short term... Lkb mpr
long term... Cp
aviation... Mpr
marine... Ajb tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi32 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 64°F1007.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi38 min ESE 5.1 G 7 62°F 66°F1009.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi32 min E 2.9 G 4.1
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi32 min SSE 7 G 8 63°F 1010.1 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi38 min E 7 G 8 60°F 67°F1009 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi32 min SE 5.1 G 6 64°F 66°F1009.4 hPa
44072 37 mi30 min 63°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi44 min E 6 G 8 60°F 67°F1010 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi38 min E 4.1 G 5.1 62°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi38 min E 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 62°F1009.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi32 min SE 5.1 G 6 60°F 1010.6 hPa
44087 49 mi20 min 64°F1 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi75 minN 0 mi60°F57°F93%1010.2 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3NE3E6E9SE5NE9NE8NE5E5NE3NE7NE5NE6NE6E5E5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW8SW5SW3CalmSW3CalmCalmSW4W5W8W11
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W8W7W9N5NE6NE3CalmE3E4NE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmS5S6S6SW8S7S9SW8S9S7S6S5S7S4SW6SW9
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
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Fri -- 02:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:44 AM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:14 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:13 PM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.50.70.911.110.80.60.50.30.20.20.40.50.70.90.90.90.80.60.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
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Fri -- 02:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:05 AM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:47 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 06:34 PM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.40.60.81110.90.70.50.30.20.20.30.40.60.80.90.90.80.70.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.