Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday June 21, 2018 10:09 AM EDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 1:21PMMoonset 12:51AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 959 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Rest of today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 959 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will drop through the area during today, then stalls over north carolina tonight into Friday. This front lifts back north as a warm front Friday evening into Saturday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211106
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
706 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the region from the north this
morning. The front pushes south through the area this afternoon,
then stalls over north carolina tonight into Friday. This front
lifts back north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

current WV imagery depicts a trough over the eastern seaboard,
with an upper low over the central plains, with a narrow ridge
over the ohio valley. At the surface, high pressure is located n
of the great lakes, with a cold front aligned w-e near the
mason- dixon line, and another area of high pressure over the
gulf coast and fl. Most of the showers tstms from last evening
have dissipated with only a few lingering showers. Some patchy
fog is possible over the piedmont, but overall fog is rather
limited in coverage with light SW flow in the warm sector.

Temperatures are mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s. Partly
sunny, rain-free, and humid this morning with temperatures
rising through the 80s and dewpoints in the 70s.

The cold front drops into the region this aftn triggering
showers tstms. The highest pops (40-60%) will mainly be along
and SW of the i-64 corridor, with 20-30% for mainly sea-breeze
convection farther ne. The mid-level flow will mainly be
25-30kt, and this combined with modest instability could result
in some localized stronger tstms capable of producing strong
wind gusts, again mainly along and SW of i-64. High temperatures
range from the low mid 80s ne, to around 90f from central va to
se va and NE nc where heat indices reach 95-100f.

The cold front settles into nc tonight with onshore flow
developing across the region at the surface. Meanwhile,
shortwave energy and upper level divergence arrive ahead of the
upper low to the w. 21 00z GEFS depicts pw values ~2.2" across
the region, which are around +2 st dev. The lift combined with
rich ambient moisture will result in the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. 21 00z href shows some pockets of 1.5-3.0" of
rain mainly from central va to SE va and NE nc. These higher
amounts will likely be confined to heavy showers and embedded
tstms, and will be localized, so a flood watch was not issued at
this time. Humid with lows in the 70s.

Short term Friday through Saturday
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

by Friday, the highest pops will be inland (50-70%) where some
embedded tstms are possible, to 30-40% along the coast. Guidance
is starting to settle toward a consensus on high temperatures
Friday, ranging from the mid 70s far NW to the low 80s ric metro
to the mid upr 80s SE va NE nc. The meandering frontal boundary
lifts back N as a warm front Friday night into Saturday
morning. The highest pops will shift N with the front during
this time. By Saturday, expecting temperatures to warm up again.

A shortwave trough is progged to cross the region in the
afternoon that could touch of a line of mainly diurnally driven
tstms. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, after morning lows in the
low mid 70s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 400 pm edt Wednesday...

shower thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night-Sunday morning
for the eastern third of the CWA as a surface trough continues to
linger across the region. A potent shortwave dives southeastward
from canada to the northeastern us on Monday. The associated surface
low pressure system will drag a cold front southward across the
region late Sunday into Monday bringing another chance for showers
and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary pushes south during the day
on Monday with a few lingering showers t-storms possible across
mainly southern portions of the cwa. The latest 20 12z ECMWF has
only isolated-scattered showers t-storms Sunday night-Monday while
the GFS has more widespread t-storms. Thus, opted to maintain no
higher than 50% pops Sunday night-Monday. Behind the cold front,
high pressure builds in north of the area bringing drier and cooler
conditions to the region from Tuesday through the middle of next
week.

Sunday will likely be the warmest day of the extended period with
with highs in the lower 90s for most areas. Highs will cool to the
mid-upper 80s on Monday with low-mid 80s expected on Tuesday.

Warming up slightly on Wednesday with highs between 83-87. Expect
morning lows between 70-75 on Sunday and Monday cooling into the 60s
for Tuesday Wednesday.

Aviation 11z Thursday through Monday
As of 705 am edt Thursday...

a weak cold front remains situated w-e near the mason-dixon
line with light SW flow across the local area this morning. The
cold front will drop into the region this aftn with the wind
shifting to N NE through the aftn. Iso-sct showers tstms are
expected once again during the aftn with sct-bkn CIGS of 5-6kft.

An area of low pressure tracks along the front tonight
resulting in likely showers and embedded tstms. Pockets of
heavier rain could produce MVFR or ifr vsby along with MVFR
cigs, then ifr possible late tonight into Friday morning.

High pressure settles over new england Friday resulting in
onshore flow. Remaining unsettled as an upper level trough
approaches from the SW with a 20-40% chc of showers along the
coast, and 40-60% farther inland. The potential for aftn evening
showers tstms will continue Saturday and Sunday. Drier
conditions potentially arrive by Monday.

Marine
As of 430 am edt Thursday...

early this morning, a cold front was just north of the area.

Winds were SW or W 10 kt or less, with waves 1 foot and seas
1 to 2 feet. That front will drop thru the area during today,
then stalls over nc tonight into fri. The front will lift back
north as a warm front Fri evening into Sat morning. Winds will
shift to the nw, n, then NE during today, as the front moves
south of the region by this evening. NE or E winds 5-15 kt
expected tonight. The gradient strengthens a bit more on fri
into Fri evening with E winds 10-20 kt, with the strongest
winds over the NRN half of the region. Seas will build to 4-6 ft
over the NRN coastal waters, and thus have issued a SCA for zns
650-652 fm Fri morning thru late Fri night. The flow will then
become SE then S Fri night into Sat morning, as the warm front
lifts thru the waters. Stronger ssw winds expected Sat aftn into
sat night, sca's may be needed for both winds and seas.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to 4 am edt Saturday
for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Ajz jdm
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Ajb eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi39 min N 3.9 G 5.8 78°F 1011 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi51 min W 2.9 G 4.1 1009 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi51 min WNW 4.1 G 6 76°F 81°F1008.4 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi99 min W 1 80°F 1009 hPa78°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi57 min WNW 5.1 G 6
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi51 min W 1.9 G 2.9 80°F 1008.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi51 min WNW 2.9 G 7 82°F 83°F1008.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi57 min W 5.1 G 6 79°F 80°F1007.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi51 min WSW 7 G 8.9 76°F 82°F1008.8 hPa
44072 37 mi39 min Calm G 0 79°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi51 min WNW 4.1 G 6 76°F 79°F1008.1 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi57 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 79°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi51 min N 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi74 minW 410.00 miFair77°F74°F91%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3S3S3SE3SE6S3NW4W3S3SE3SW4W3W6SW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5
1 day agoW6W5W4W6W5W6W6W5--W6CalmW5W3CalmCalmNW3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4CalmSW5SW3W4W3SW3CalmSE4S4SE5SE3S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W3W4

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.100.10.30.60.811.110.80.60.30.1-000.20.50.711.11.210.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:34 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:53 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.10.20.40.70.9110.90.70.40.20.100.10.30.60.911.11.10.90.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.