Wednesday, August22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

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Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:48PM Wednesday August 22, 2018 1:51 AM EDT (05:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 1:51AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1248 Am Edt Wed Aug 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1248 Am Edt Wed Aug 22 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will cross the area on Wednesday. High pressure will build into and across the region from the west Thursday through Saturday, before sliding offshore late in the weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220159
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
959 pm edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north of the local area this evening. A cold
front will cross the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Dry
and pleasant weather is expected Thursday through
Saturday... Then becoming warmer and more humid for Sunday
through Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 1000 pm edt Tuesday...

a warm front has pushed N of the region late this evening, with
most of the convection now N of the area or offshore. Some
additional showers and perhaps a TSTM will drift into the
piedmont late this evening and some additional showers tstms
overnight in NE nc near the albemarle sound. Pops in these
locations are 20-30%, and AOB 20% elsewhere overnight. Partly to
mostly cloudy, warm, and humid with lows in the low mid 70s.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
As of 320 pm edt Tuesday...

latest models continue to support that there is a (significant)
wx change on the way... But not until thu. A
secondary... Stronger cold front approach cross the local area
wed as trough aloft sharpens into the ERN conus. After a
period of only about 20% pops Wed morning... Will have pops back
to 40-60% Wed afternoon evening with that second cold front
crossing the local area. Partly-mostly sunny Wed morning... Then
becoming partly mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs m80s W to
u80s e.

Substantial drying wx expected by Thu on N winds (which become
gusty for a period by Thu morning). Dew points to drop into the
50s N and central areas... L60s SE on thu. Will hang onto slight
chc pops early Thu right near the coast then there may be isold
convection near the albemarle sound Thu afternoon. Mostly
sunny... Except partly sunny SE va-ne nc Thu W highs in the
l80s. Pleasant and dry cool Thu night with lows 55-60f inland
to the m60s SE va NE nc coast. Mostly sunny Fri with highs
80-85 f.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 305 pm edt Monday...

dry pleasant wx expected to continue Fri night sat... Then
becoming warmer for sun-tue. A trough aloft crossing the area
sun (as the warmer air spreads into the region) may kick off
isold sct shras tstms. After that... Strong hi pres sfc-aloft
sets up from the SRN plains to the SE CONUS through early next
week.

Lows Fri night in the u50s in the far W to around 70f along the
coast in SE va-ne nc. Highs Sat in the l80s at the coast to the
m80s inland. Lows Sat night in the m-u60s... Except the l70s
along the coast in SE va- NE nc. Highs Sun in the m80s E to the
u80s w. Lows Sun night in the u60s-l70s. Highs Mon in the u80s
at the coast to around 90f inland. Lows Mon night in the l-m70s.

Highs Tue in the l-m90s... Except the 80s at the immediate
coast.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 800 pm edt Tuesday...

the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms will continue to move off
to the northeast, with the majority of the showers coming to an end
by 02z. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out, especially at
ecg, through the night. Due to the moist airmass, stratus may try to
develop later tonight at locations that received rainfall
earlier today. There is still uncertainty on the extent of any
stratus development, so mainly left it out of the forecast for
the time being.

A cold front approaches the region during the day on Wednesday
before crossing the region late Wednesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop Wednesday afternoon along and ahead
of the frontal boundary.

Outlook: high pressure builds back into the region late Wednesday
into Thursday allowing for mainlyVFR conditions into the weekend.

Marine
As of 430 pm edt Tuesday...

a warm front has been making progress northward through water
this afternoon and at 4 pm is locate near the potomac river and
stretches eastward across the DELMARVA peninsula between melfa
and wallops island. The models show that the front should
continue to the north and clear the region between 00z and 3z
wed. This will put the region in the warm sector as a cold front
is making progress through the appalachian mountains this
evening. As the pressure gradient tightens overnight expect the
south to southwest winds to increase to 15 to 20 kt over the
waters which will kick waves up to 2 to 4 ft on the bay and 4 to
6 ft over the coastal waters. The initial cold front should
slide through the waters around 12z - 15z. This will help reduce
the chance for showers and tstorms and reduce the winds below
sca levels. For now have left the SCA headlines for tonight into
Wednesday although the seas may stay up near 5 ft through wed
afternoon in the northern coastal zones.

A secondary cold front will sweep through the region on wed
evening and behind this front will be a shot of cooler and drier
air. Expect a surge of northerly winds that should reach sca
levels with winds of 15 to 25 kt Wednesday night. High pressure
will then quickly build over the region on Thursday, helping to
calm the winds and seas. This high will settle over the region
through Friday before sliding off the coast on Saturday and
allowing a light south to southwest flow to return for the
weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
Tides will average 1.0-1.5ft above normal during high tide late
this evening through the early overnight early morning for the
nrn neck along the tidal potomac and dorchester, md along the
bay. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for dorchester and a
statement is in effect for northumberland westmoreland.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 4 am edt Wednesday for mdz021.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Wednesday for anz630>636-
638-650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Alb lkb
near term... Ajz alb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajb
marine... Ess
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi32 min W 16 G 18 80°F 1013.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi40 min SW 21 G 23 1011.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi46 min WSW 8 G 8.9 78°F 81°F1010 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi32 min SW 12 G 16 79°F 1009.2 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi82 min SW 1 78°F 1013 hPa78°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi40 min WSW 11 G 15
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi40 min WSW 18 G 21 81°F 1011.5 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi40 min SW 5.1 G 7 78°F 81°F1010.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi40 min SW 12 G 15 80°F 82°F1010.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi40 min SSW 15 G 17 79°F 82°F1010.3 hPa
44072 37 mi32 min WSW 18 G 21 80°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi34 min SW 12 G 14 78°F 82°F1009.3 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi40 min WSW 17 G 20 80°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi40 min SW 13 G 20 78°F 1010.1 hPa
44087 49 mi82 min 82°F2 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi82 minSSW 710.00 miFair77°F76°F97%1011.8 hPa

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Last 24hrE4NE4E5E5E3E4E5SE7S6S7SW8S6SW6S6NW7S5E3SE3S5S5S7S5SW5SW7
1 day agoNE6NE4NE3N3N3NE4E6NE4NE8NE7NE7E4S5CalmNE4E10CalmNE4NE8E5CalmCalmE5NE3
2 days agoSW4SW7SW6W7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmNE4N3CalmCalmNE3CalmNE3N3CalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:49 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:43 AM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:39 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:11 PM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.40.30.20.30.50.70.9110.90.80.60.40.30.20.30.50.811.21.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:30 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:16 AM EDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:38 PM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.50.30.20.20.30.50.70.90.90.90.80.60.40.30.20.20.40.60.811.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.