Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:21PM Saturday July 22, 2017 4:39 PM EDT (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 4:07AMMoonset 6:45PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 344 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Through 7 pm..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers and tstms likely after midnight.
Sun..W winds 15 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 344 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains over the western atlantic as a persistent trough lingers over central virginia through the weekend. A weakening cold front pushes across the waters Tuesday. Weak troughing persists along the mid atlantic coast the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 222000
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
400 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
Very hot and humid conditions will continue over the region
through Sunday. A weakening cold front will gradually push
across the area late Sunday night through Monday and stall
across the carolinas through the middle of the upcoming week.

Temperatures will cool down to near normal levels Monday
through Thursday.

Near term through Sunday
Latest analysis indicates a weak sfc lee trough lingering over
the mid- atlantic region from nj down ssw into the piedmont of
the carolinas. Wnw flow prevails aloft and in combination with
the hot unstable airmass, convection has overspread the local
area. Some fairly weak isolated storms have developed near the
va nc border along the low level theta-e ridge where sfc dew pts
along SE of this are near 80 f. More significant, an area of
storms is moving into the eastern shore and will pass through
over the next few hrs. Upstream, more scattered tstms are
developing across the va piedmont. With shortwave energy moving
through the wnw flow aloft this evening overnight, expect a good
chc for redeveloping storms and with decent shear especially
over the N NE zones, there will be at least some threat for
strong to severe storms well into the evening overnight. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threat, though steepening mid-
level lapse rates could portend to some strong updrafts and the
potential for some large hail (best chance over the northern
neck eastern shore). Have maintained a general likely pop 60% ne
with 30-50% scattered coverage most other areas through after
midnight. Otherwise, heat adsy remains in effect through 8pm
for most of the cwa, heat indices on avg are 100-105 f central
va where dew pts are not as high (though actual temperatures are
in the upper 90s to near 100 f). Across the SE especially ne
nc, a few spots have seen heat indices to 110 f+.

Lows most areas 75 to 80 f, slightly "cooler" across the north,
especially in areas the do receive rain.

Continued hot and humid with additional heat headlines now
issued for about the southern 2 3 of the CWA (along S of wal to
ric to lunenburg co. Line) where heat indices of 105 to 109 f
expected. Could potentially reach to 110+ along for NE nc but do
anticipate highs a little cooler than today so have held off on
this for now. Sunday remains a bit of a conditional convective
threat. Numerous convective boundaries are likely to be in
place, which would serve as a focusing mechanism for afternoon
and evening convection. However, uncertainty exists regarding
the extent and degree of cloudiness from convective debris which
hangs around into Sunday, thereby serving to dampen
destabilization. Models are still split on extent of cloudiness
through the early afternoon and have therefore elected to keep
pop in chance range (40-50%) for now, highest over the NE cwa.

Should convective debris clear out in a timely way on Sunday,
it's easy to visualize a scenario in which more widespread
convection occurs, given better lift lapse rates courtesy of the
approaching upper trough and the strong heating destabilization
that would result from quicker clearing. Once again, damaging
winds again the primary threat with storms on Sunday.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
Cold front slated to pass through while weakening late sun
night through mon. Will maintain high chc pops all zones sun
night, and favor highest pops Mon shifting south across SE va &
ne nc with 20% pops for the n. Slightly less humid Monday over
the NW cwa. Not quite as hot, with highs Mon 90 to 95 f. Front
stalls in nc tue, with mainly diurnal tstms possible again over
the s, 15-20% n. Seasonable highs upper 80s to lower 90s.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
High pressure moves off the coast Wed with any support for pcpn
across southern half of fa closer to a stalled frontal boundary.

Highs in the mid-upr 80s. Lows in the upr 60s-lwr 70s.

This boundary begins to drift north thurs resulting in slght chc
pops across the region. Highs in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. Lows 70-75.

Next boundary approaches from the north, then stalls across the
region Fri and sat. Chc pops each day though pcpn may tend to
concentrate across the southern half of fa Sat depending on how far
south the boundary actually gets. Highs Fri in the upr 80s- lwr 90s.

Lows in the upr 60s-mid 70s. Highs Sat in the mid-upr 80s.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
Vfr conditions expected through most of the forecast period as
high pressure remains off the coast. Sct convection possible
across northern TAF sites after 22z as a series of convective
complexes ride SE along a stalled front well north of the fa.

First complex tracking across northern va md ATTM is progged to
continue SE across the lwr md eastern shore towards 00z. Given
decent agreement in high res data, added vcts to sby's forecast
for a few hours beginning at 22z. Otw, kept thunder out of the
other tafs as any storms that do develop are not expected until
after 00z. Convection may not make it to the sern TAF sites
until late tonight if at all. Expect LCL MVFR CIGS vsbys in any
storm with the potential for ifr vsbys in any one downpour.

Expect a repeat performance Sunday as the persistant pattern
continues early in the week.

Outlook: convection slowly shifts south into south central va
and nc for Monday.VFR should dominate through this period, with
periods of periods of sub-vfr possible in heavier showers tsra.

A weak cold front pushes into the area for the mid week period.

Marine
No headlines expected as a SW wind AOB 15 kt prevails into the early
week. There could be a few gusts to 20 kts Sun aftrn, but duration
is not expected to be long enough to justify a SCA headline. Seas 2
feet nearshore to 4 ft out near 20 nm. Sct tstms possible in the
afternoon eve hours.

The next frontal boundary crosses the area tues with a wind shift
into the e-ne. At this point, winds are expected to remain below sca
levels (aob 15 kts). Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Weak onshore flow continues for the rest of the week as a frontal
boundary stalls across the area. This will also act as a trigger for
sct late day convection as well.

Climate
Heat wave is expected to continue through Sunday. The 2nd half
of july is climatologically the hottest few weeks of the year,
so we still may not set any daily records at our main climate
sites. For reference, record highs for today and Sunday are
listed below:
* date: sat(7 22) sun(7 23)
* ric: 103 1952 103 1952
* orf: 102 2011 103 2011
* sby: 104 1930 103 2011
* ecg: 104 1952 104 1952

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mdz021>024.

Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz012>017-
030>032.

Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Sunday for ncz012>017-
030>032-102.

Va... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-511>525.

Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Sunday for vaz065>068-
078>090-092-093-095>100-512>516-518-520-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Ajb mpr
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi40 min W 7.8 G 9.7 91°F 88°F1010.6 hPa (-1.8)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi52 min SSE 7 G 8 1010.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi52 min N 7 G 8 89°F 86°F1009.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi40 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 90°F 87°F1 ft1008.7 hPa (-2.0)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi70 min W 2.9 98°F 1011 hPa70°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi52 min N 8 G 8
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi52 min WNW 11 G 12 92°F 1010.3 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi52 min WSW 5.1 G 11 94°F 89°F1010.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi52 min W 13 G 16 95°F 85°F1009.6 hPa
44072 37 mi40 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 91°F 86°F1 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi52 min WSW 5.1 G 7 87°F 1010 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi52 min WNW 5.1 G 9.9 91°F 85°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi52 min WNW 5.1 G 7 83°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 44 mi40 min WNW 5.8 G 9.7 89°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi52 min NW 8.9 G 12 89°F 1011.1 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi45 minWSW 9 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy98°F63°F32%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4SE7SE5E3SE3S7SW4SW3SW5SW5SW3W3W3W5W5SW5W6W6NW4SW7W8W7W9
1 day agoSW10SW5S4S4S4S4S4S3S5SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW6S6SW3S5
2 days agoSE5SE5SE7SE6SE4E3CalmCalmS3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW3W3W5CalmS3S4SW4SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:30 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:29 AM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:29 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:56 PM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.711.11.110.70.40.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.81.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:49 AM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.20.90.60.2-0-0.1-00.20.50.811.110.80.50.2-0-0.1-00.20.611.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.