Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deep Creek, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:50PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:16 PM EST (02:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 712 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Friday...
Tonight..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of drizzle. A chance of light rain early this evening, then a slight chance of light rain late this evening and overnight. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot. A chance of light rain and drizzle in the morning.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ600 712 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front over the waters will move south of the area this evening. The front will slowly return north as a warm front on Friday and stalls just north of the area Friday night into Saturday. Another cold front moves through the area Sunday into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deep Creek, VA
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location: 37.76, -75.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230104
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
804 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
A frontal boundary stalls across the region tonight, then lifts
back north as a warm front Friday. Another cold front crosses
the area late Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Dramatic drop in temperatures have occurred over SE and parts of
srn va the past couple of hours as backdoor cold front makes
push s. Readings... After being in the 70s... Down in the u40s to
50s while warm sector remains over far south central va and ne
nc. The shallow front to keep pushing S this eve... Eventually
through NE nc. Additionally... Lo CIGS (st) along and N of the
front... And will be adding fg near the coast. Patchy areas
of -dz overnight. NE winds now gusty to 20-30 mph as colder air
spreads s... Should wane a bit overnight.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
Models are fairly quick to move the boundary back north as a warm
front fri. Plenty of low level moisture noted to keep low chc
stratiformed pops across the north thru 18z, then the lower levels
dry out a bit as the fa becomes warmed sectored. Another tricky temp
forecast as the numbers will depend on how much Sun occurs. Highs in
the low-mid 50s north, upr 50s-mid 60s south, 65-70 across NRN nc.

Fa remains in the warm sectored Fri nite. Not much support for pcpn
but fog will be a good bet, especially after midnite. Lows 45-50
north, in the 50s south.

Offshore ridge builds back into the area sat. Moisture slowly incrs
with the best support for pcpn across the NW Sat aftrn and eve. Otw,
pt suny to mstly cldy and warmer. Highs in the low-mid 60s ERN shore
with the 70s west of the bay. Lows Sat nite in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s.

The next cold front approaches from the west Sun morning with the
fropa in the aftrn eve. Models depict a decent feed of moisture
across the mts but it weakens as it moves east into the piedmont.

Will keep the chc pops after 18z for now. Highs in the 60s ern
shore, 70s west of the bay.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
No major changes expected the the day 4-7 forecast. Still expecting
a cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. The front will be
slowing down as it approaches the area as it becomes nearly parallel
to the upper flow aloft. As such, will need to maintain chance pops
sun night into Monday for all locations. Am expecting everyone to
see some light rain at some point, and guidance pointed to likely
pops both Sun night into Monday. However, given that the rain will
be light and not continuous, we opted to just include chance of rain
showers for that period. Once the front moves south of the area, dry
canadian high pressure will build across the middle atlantic by
Tuesday, then offshore wed. The next chance for showers will be
Thursday as the guidance suggests strong warm advection ahead of a
deepening mississippi valley low pressure system.

Despite the cool down from this week, temperatures will still be
above normal with temperatures in the upper 50-mid 60s and lows in
the upper 30s mid 40s.

Aviation 01z Friday through Tuesday
Backdoor cold front now S of all sites except for ecg... That
will occur most likely by 03-04z. Period of st... Ifr lifr cigs
and -dz into through Fri morning beore CIGS slowly gradually
rise (to at MVFR - slowest to occur at sby) as front retreats
back N as warm front Fri afternoon eve. Region back into the
warm sector Fri night-sun (though there may be sct shras). The
next front will cross the area late sun... W another period of
cig vsby restrictions possible during that period.

Marine
Went ahead and put up a small craft advisory for all of the bay
and lower james until 06z. Winds are gusting out of the N NE in
excess of 20 knots with the surge behind the front. Winds should
begin to lighten up after 06z. Also went ahead and expanded the
small craft advisory in the ocean to include parramore island to
cape charles light as seas will likely build to 5 feet in
portions of the zone and a few gusts to 25 knots can't also be
ruled out. Finally, issued a dense fog advisory for the lower
bay, southern ocean zones, and currituck sound until 06z per
recent observations and cams.

Previous discussion: the front is currently bisecting the
marine area as it has been slow to move southward this afternoon
due to the strong ridge to the south. However, after sunset,
expect the front to rapidly move southward, reaching the
southern coastal waters by later this evening. All marine areas
should have northerly winds tonight. Will maintain small craft
conditions across the northern coastal waters tonight due to
wind and seas, however even the bay will will choppy with north
winds around 15kt.

Expect the front to surge back north of the waters on Friday Friday
evening , with southerly flow developing and continuing through the
weekend. By Saturday night into Sunday, southerly winds may allow
for small craft conditions again over the coastal waters ahead of a
cold front. This cold front will pass through the waters on Monday
with NW winds expected Tue Wed as canadian high pressure builds into
the ohio tennessee valley regions.

Climate
Record highs and record high mins were set at richmond,
salisbury, and elizabeth city Wed 2 21. At norfolk, the record
high was tied and the record high min was set. See rer products
for details. For today 2 22, record highs and record high mins
will be possible and these values are listed below.

**please note, record high mins like record highs are calendar
date values so the the records are not complete this morning
(temperature needs to stay up through midnight tonight).

* date: today Thu 2 22
* site: record high... Record high min
* ric: 73 (1985) 52 (1913)
* orf: 77 (1937) 55 (1878)
* sby: 70 (1997) 50 (1996)
* ecg: 77 (2003) 56 (1997)
very warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, record
highs are listed for Sat 2 24 and Sun 2 25.

* record highs
* site: Sat 2 24... ... Sun 2 25
* ric: 82 (1985) 83 (1930)
* orf: 82 (2012) 81 (2017)
* sby: 77 (2012) 80 (1930)
* ecg: 79 (1985) 78 (2017)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 1 am est Friday for anz632>634-656-
658.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Friday for anz630>632-634-
638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Alb mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajb mrd
aviation... Alb mpr
marine... Ajb mrd
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 11 mi47 min NE 21 G 31 44°F 58°F1033.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi47 min NNE 17 G 20 1034 hPa
44089 23 mi47 min 43°F5 ft
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi37 min SW 16 G 19 43°F 1033.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi47 min ENE 17 G 22 44°F 50°F1034.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi47 min ENE 14 G 17 44°F 49°F1034.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi47 min ENE 13 G 23 46°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 46 mi47 min NE 17 G 19 1033.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi47 min E 8 G 12

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA8 mi22 minNE 117.00 miOvercast45°F43°F94%1033.5 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA20 mi23 minNE 22 G 308.00 miOvercast and Breezy45°F42°F90%1033.9 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW3S8S6S5S6S7SW7SW5SW8SW7W3CalmSE3E3E3E6E4E4E4E8NE7NE10NE12
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1 day agoS7S7S9S8S8S7S8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS4S3SW5SW9SW5SW7SW6SW5SW5W6W7W5SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
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Thu -- 04:01 AM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:39 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:18 PM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:52 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.91.51.921.91.71.30.80.40.20.10.30.71.11.51.71.71.51.10.70.3-0-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:43 AM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:26 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:07 PM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:34 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.511.41.71.71.61.30.90.60.30.10.10.30.71.11.41.51.51.20.90.50.2-0-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.