Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deep Creek, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:47PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 2:38 PM EST (19:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1238 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers late in the evening. Showers likely after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
ANZ600 1238 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves father off the mid atlantic coast this afternoon. Weak low pressure moves northeast along the coast tonight ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday morning. High pressure builds back into the area for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deep Creek, VA
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location: 37.76, -75.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211733
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1233 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure develops along the southeast coast tonight,
and tracks northeast and off the mid atlantic coast on Wednesday
as a cold front pushes through the local area. High pressure
builds back into the region Wednesday afternoon through Friday
as low pressure lingers from florida to south carolina.

Near term through tonight
Current forecast on track with only minor changes made to the
grids late this morning. Cirrus will continue to overspread the
area from the ssw along with sct-bkn sc developing over the next
few hrs. Look for skies to become pt sunny. Highs 60-65.

Pvs dscn:
a quick moving NRN stream wave lifts into the northeast wed
with the trailing cold front crossing the local area by 12z wed.

Meanwhile, a weak sfc low progged to lift n-ne along the mid-
atlantic coast wed. Where the models continue to differ is just
how far west any measurable pcpn gets. GFS is closer to the
coast with the NAM sref ECMWF favoring some light pcpn as far
west as the piedmont. Best lift progged east of i95 between 06z-
12z wed. Thus, expect a period of showers mainly along and east
of i-95 after midnight... Quickly shifting toward the coast
around 12z then offshore by 15z wed. Kept likely pops east of
i95 with chc pops to the west for now. Lows tues night in the
40s to lwr 50s se. Little QPF west of i95, .10 to .25 east.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
Given the spread in the models between the drier GFS and
slower wetter nam, have bumped pops up a bit along the coast
through 15z Wed morning to high chance (40-50%) with low-end
likely pops just off the coast. Dry farther inland. Skies clear
out around sunrise west of i-95 and by late morning along the
coast. Mostly sunny all areas Wed aftn as much drier air filters
in on nnw low level flow and sfc high pressure building in from
the nw. Lagging CAA and sunshine should allow for highs in the
upper 50s north to the lower-mid 60s se. Mostly clear colder wed
night Thu am with lows in the mid 20s NW to the mid 30s se.

Gfs is more aggressive than the ecwmf NAM at allowing for deeper
moisture to linger and lift back N in the vicinity of the nc
coast for thanksgiving. Increased clouds a bit over SE va NE nc
but stayed with a dry forecast for now even in these areas.

Overall mostly sunny N to partly sunny s. Chilly for thanksgiving
day with high in the mid-upper 40s to lower 50s (genly going on
the cold side of mav met guidance due to shallow mixing as the
sfc high settles over northern 1 2 of the cwa). Partly cloudy
thu night and mostly sunny and turning a little milder Fri with
highs in the lower-mid 50s after lows mainly in the 30-35 f
range.

Long term Friday night through Monday
The next front pushes across the region sat. It will be
moisture starved as any support for pcpn stays north. Highs sat
in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. Dry colder Sun and Mon as canadian
high pressure returns. Highs Sun upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Sun night
in the mid 20s-mid 30s. Highs Mon only in the low-mid 40s.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions to start the forecast period as high mid level
clouds increase through 00z. Latest guidance suggests cigs
continue to lower (but still remain avove 3k ft) across the
region this evening with pcpn holding off until 03z. Moisture
ahead of a cold front will combine with low pressure moving
ne along the coast to produce MVFR CIGS vsbys in shwrs between
06z-14z, pushing offshore around 15z. Some of the guidance is
showing LCL ifr CIGS around 12z but confidence not high enough
that will occur. Drying of the column will result in decreasing
clouds through the day with all TAF sites becomingVFR by 18z.

The ssw winds today at 10-15kts shift to the nnw behind the cold
frontal passage Wed morning.

Outlook...

vfr conditions return for the rest of the week as high pressure
builds into the region from the west.

Marine
High pressure over the area this morning will slide offshore by
midday and move further out to sea this afternoon. Expect winds to
remain s-sw 10 to 15 kt (15-20 kt over NRN coastal waters) thru
today. Seas 2 ft south and 2-4 ft north; waves 1-3 ft. A canadian
low pressure system will drag a cold front through the oh valley
late today, approaching the waters Wed morning. Also, low pressure
will develop off the SE coast tonight, then lifts NE just off the
mid atlc coast Wed morning into Wed aftn. Expect s-sw winds 5-15 kt
tonight to become wnw around daybreak wed. Winds then increase to 15-
25 kt all waters by late Wed morning afternoon (highest southern
coastal waters where gusts may reach 30 kt). Winds become N and
gradually diminish Wed night as cool high pressure builds into the
region. Scas will likely be needed for most, if not all, of the
marine area for Wed wed night. After coordination with neighboring
offices, plan to hold off on issuance of SCA this morning as start
time is still 3rd period. Seas expected to reach 5-7 ft; waves 3-4
ft on wed. Sub-sca conditions then expected thanksgiving day and
Friday with high pressure nearby.

Equipment
Kdox remains down. Parts are on order and are expected to arrive wed.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb mpr
short term... Lkb mpr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 11 mi50 min S 9.9 G 14 56°F 50°F1021 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi50 min S 18 G 19 1021.1 hPa
44089 23 mi38 min 58°F3 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi48 min S 14 G 18 55°F 1020.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi48 min SSW 12 G 16 58°F 1018.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi50 min S 16 G 20 54°F 48°F1019.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi50 min SW 14 G 17 60°F 50°F1018.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi50 min S 11 G 12 53°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 46 mi50 min SSW 9.9 G 12 59°F 1020.9 hPa
44072 47 mi48 min S 7.8 G 9.7 57°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi50 min SW 14 G 17

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA8 mi68 minS 710.00 miFair62°F40°F45%1021 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA20 mi44 minS 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F39°F51%1020 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6SW4S3S4S6S4S5S5S5S5S5S5S6S6S6S4S3S3SW8SW13
G19
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1 day agoNW9
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2 days agoS10
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Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
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Tue -- 01:04 AM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:22 PM EST     2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:28 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.81.81.51.20.80.40.30.30.61.11.622.22.221.61.20.70.40.30.40.71

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:46 AM EST     1.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:04 PM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:29 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.61.51.20.90.50.20.10.30.611.51.821.91.61.30.90.50.30.20.30.71.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.