Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deep Creek, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:17PM Thursday May 25, 2017 4:09 PM EDT (20:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:53AMMoonset 7:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 347 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Through 7 pm..SW winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 347 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slowly builds in from the southwest Friday. A weak area of low pressure affects the area over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deep Creek, VA
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location: 37.76, -75.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 251937
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
337 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
Unsettled conditions will continue through this evening as an
upper level trough crosses the local area from the west.

Conditions improve on Friday. Warmer temperatures and chance
for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the west on memorial day.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Dry slot continuing to fill up W bkn CU and developing (sct)
tstms as an upper level trough enters the region... Steepening
lapse rates. Fa remains under marginal risk svr from spc... Main
threats from any stms will be gusty winds hail. Otherwise... Vrb
clouds partly sunny into this evening. For the
overnight... Becoming partly cloudy S W any lingering shras
waning... Mostly cloudy N W possible additional isold-sct shras.

Lows from the m50s W to l60s at the immediate coast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
Other than possible isold shras and vrb clouds far nne locations
early Fri as upper level low is slow to reach new england... Drying
out W deep layered wnw flow. Expecting a return of temperatures
back to or above normal W partly-mostly sunny conditions. Highs
mainly 80 to 85f... Except u70s at (most of) the beaches.

Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the wsw Fri night
into sat. Models in a bit better consensus W the arrival of
weak S W tracking into the fa by Sat afternoon. Combination of
daytime heating and that S W in wnw flow aloft will likely result
in at least sct convective development. Will have pops
increasing to 30-50% over most of the fa. SPC has outlooked
wrn central areas of fa slgt risk svr... Other areas marginal
svr. Otherwise... Partly cloudy Fri night- Sat morning... Then
becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon. Lows from the u50s NW to
the low 60s se. Highs Sat from the m-u70s- around 80f on the
eastern shore to the m-u80s inland.

Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into sun. Another S w
aloft expected to arrive during sun... Which again combined w
daytime heating likely results in sct convective development.

Lows Sat night ranging through the 60s. Partly sunny Sun w
highs mainly in the l-m80s (70s at the beaches).

Will highlight possible strong to severe tstms in hwo for the
weekend.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
The somewhat unsettled weather will continue into Monday with the
baroclinic zone nearby and a strong upper jet just north of the
area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms once again on
Monday in the cyclonic flow. It will be a warm day with highs in the
mid-upper 80s. The front will stall out over north carolina on
Tuesday and may allow for additional showers and storms Tuesday
across NE nc and south va. High pressure builds across the
region for Tue night-Thursday with dry and seasonable conditions
expected.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
A line of showers and thunderstorms over the piedmont will move
eastward late this afternoon, affecting ric btwn 20-22z. The storms
may affect phf and orf after 21z, and sby around 22z. Some gusty
winds and small hail are possible with these storms, as well as
brief ifr conditions. Otherwise,VFR conditions should dominate as
the associated cold front passes through this evening allowing for
drying conditions under westerly flow.

Friday should be dry withVFR conditions, then sct showers and
storms return for Saturday into early next week as the pattern
remains somewhat unsettled.

Marine
Latest sfc analysis shows a broad area of low pres across the
mid atlc - oh valley with its main cold front already pushing
offshore. SW flow continues tonight behind the front, and still
looks to be enough of a gradient for 15-20 kt winds over most
waters... So headlines over the bay sound lwr james extend
through at least Fri morning. The SCA over the ocean is for seas
up to 5 ft out 20 nm. Weak high pres then builds in for late
fri Fri night leading to improving marine conditions. Sub-sca
conditions expected to continue into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
The continued onshore flow combined with high astro tides will
result in elevated water levels through Friday. The sse winds
continue to pile up the water across the middle ches bay so
based off the latest data, went ahead and extended the coastal
flood advisory for the bay side of the lower md eastern shore
for the next high tide cycle. Also issued coastal flood statements
for the va northern neck and atlantic coastal waters from oxb-cape
charles for levels approaching minor flood levels. See cfwakq
for more details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
mdz021>023.

Nc... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Friday for ncz102.

Va... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Friday for vaz525.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Friday for anz638-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Friday for anz630>632-634-
650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Friday for anz633.

Synopsis... Alb jdm
near term... Alb
short term... Alb jdm
long term... Mrd
aviation... Jdm
marine... Mas
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 11 mi52 min SSE 7 G 9.9 73°F 71°F998.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi52 min SSE 7 G 7 998.8 hPa
44089 23 mi40 min 61°F4 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi40 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 998.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi40 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 73°F 996.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi52 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 69°F 68°F998.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi52 min SW 11 G 13 76°F 67°F997.3 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi52 min SSE 15 G 17 67°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 46 mi52 min SSW 12 G 14 75°F 997.3 hPa
44072 47 mi40 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 73°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi52 min S 8.9 G 9.9

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE13
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N11
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NE13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA8 mi75 minSW 510.00 miOvercast76°F60°F59%999 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA20 mi76 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F64°F74%998.6 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E6NE11
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S8SW12
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SW8W6SW5
1 day agoE11NE10E7NE5NE9NE7NE8NE8E10NE11
G17
NE6N7N4N5NE5CalmN4NE3NE8NE9E5E8E5E8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE8N4N4CalmNW4NW7N6NW3NW5N3NE3CalmNE4NE7E8E9
G14
E10E11E13E10
G14
NE8
G14

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:06 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:21 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.41.91.20.4-0.2-0.5-0.400.71.422.22.11.71.10.4-0.2-0.5-0.5-00.71.62.3

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:49 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:08 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.321.50.90.3-0.1-0.2-0.10.30.91.41.81.91.71.40.80.3-0.1-0.3-0.10.30.91.62.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.