Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deep Creek, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:25PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:32 PM EDT (00:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:44AMMoonset 9:31PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 706 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am edt Friday through Friday evening...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers late.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers until late afternoon...then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms late.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the evening... Then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 706 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure pushes farther east of the delmarva the rest of today into tonight. Low pressure and an associated cold front will approach from the west on Friday...moving across the area Friday night. High pressure then returns for the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deep Creek, VA
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location: 37.76, -75.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 302013
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
413 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries track across the
region Friday. High pressure builds over the area for the
weekend. Another area of low pressure crosses the area Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
Latest msas has high pressure off the new jersey coast with a
warm front snaking it way across the mts. Kept the evening dry
except over extreme western zones where a few showers are
possible before midnite. High res data shows that overrunning
moisture pushes across the area after midnight ahead of the
leading warm front. Chc pops east to likely over the piedmont
late. Lows mid 40s north, lwr 50s south.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/
Will follow the premise that there will be two main areas of
convection Friday. First one comes during the morning hours as
the warm front lifts north across the fa. Mdt to hvy rainfall
will be the threat here and added locally hvy rainfall to the
grids. Expect to see a few hour "lull" in pcpn coverage in the
afternoon ahead of the triple point low progged to track east
but remain north of the fa late. Thinking is that the second
area of convection will be associated with the trailing cold
front as it crosses the region Friday afternoon and evening.

This is where/when the potential for strong to isltd severe
tstms will be but will be highly dependent on the amount of
heating that occurs in the warm sector. NAM is the more
"bullish" model with respect to a severe threat than the gfs.

Spc keeps the entire fa in a marginal risk with the threat being
large hail and damaging winds. Best instability progged across
the southern half of the fa. Went ahead and beefed up the
wording in the hwo for now. Will carry categorical pops all
areas given the amount of both atlantic and gulf of mexico
moisture entrained into the system. Average QPF around one inch.

Highs from the mid 50s-lwr 60s eastern shore, mid 60s-lwr 70s
west of the bay.

Low moves off the nj coast Friday evening. Dry slot behind it
will likely cut off the moisture after midnight. Thus, likely
pops during the evening tapers off to chc after midnight, ending
all areas prior to 12z sat. Lows Friday night in the upr 40s-lwr
50s.

Low pressure moves farther offshore Saturday with high pressure
building into the area from the west. This high tracks over the
area Saturday night then moves east Sunday. Upshot will be a dry
and rather mild weekend. Should see a large range in temps
Saturday with the coolest readings along the coast. Highs there
from the upr 50s- lwr 60s ranging to the upr 60s-mid 70s west of
the ches bay. Cooler Saturday night with lows 40-45. Highs
Sunday in the 60s except remaining in the 50s along the coast.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/
High pressure slides offshore Sun night/mon as the next low
pressure system deepens over the ARKLATEX region/lower ms
valley. The low is now expected to track across the southeast
states Mon night and into the mid atlantic region on tue...

exiting well east of the DELMARVA coast Tue evening/overnight.

Increasing cloudiness late Sun night into mon. Lows in the 40s
sun night, and highs in the 60s to around 70f south on mon
(upper 50s to lower 60s atlantic beaches). Sfc pressure gradient
tightens substantially late Mon night into Tue ahead of the
approaching cold front. S-w winds could become gusty but this
potential will be highly dependent on where the warm front
actually tracks. Given the swd track of the low with the most
recent 12z model run, do not want to commit to any particular
model solution yet. Overall, widespread rainfall is anticipated
in the Mon night to Tue timeframe. Timing is not favorable for
thunderstorms at this time, therefore limited precip wording to
showers. Warmer temperatures Mon night/tue as the associated
warm front lifts north through the region. Lows Mon night in the
50s. Highs Tue in the lower 70s (mid-upper 60s NRN neck and
md/va eastern shore). No hints of major cooling behind the
departing low pressure system, therefore expect lows in the
upper 40s north to lower 50s south Tue night. Brief/weak high
pressure for Wed with highs generally around 70f (low-mid 60s
immediate coast).

Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/
High pressure just off the mid atlantic coast will drift to the
east as low pressure over the middle mississippi valley moves
east through the ohio valley. A mostly overcast sky with
ceilings of around 5 to 7 k ft will prevail during the balance
of the afternoon with east and southeast winds of 6 to 12 knots.

Overnight... Winds turn more southerly and ceilings lower ahead
of an area of rain that will arrive Friday morning. Visibilities
and ceilings will lower to MVFR early Friday morning and to ifr
at times late in the morning.

Outlook... Low pressure will continue to move east through
northern parts of the mid atlantic states and eventually off the
new jersey coast by early Saturday morning. A trailing cold
front will cross the forecast area late Friday associated with
scattered thunderstorms. Precipitation and low conditions will
move off the coast early Saturday morning with high pressure
rebuilding back over the area for the weekend. There will be a
chance for showers western portions of the area by late Monday
as the next system develops over the mississippi valley.

Widespread precipitation and degraded aviation conditions are
likely Monday night and Tuesday.

Marine
High pressure continues to slide ewd off the DELMARVA coast
tonight as an approaching low pressure system tracks over the
great lakes states. E winds AOB 15kt become more SE overnight.

Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore swell. Waves 2-3ft. The sfc
pressure gradient tightens rapidly Fri morning as a warm front
lifts north across the area ahead of the approaching cold front,
which is expected to cross the waters Fri evening. Se-s wind
speeds are expected to increase to low-end SCA (15-25kt) fri
morning... Becoming sw-w and decreasing AOB 15kt Fri evening with
the cold frontal passage. Seas also build to 5ft Fri morning and
could reach up to 6ft NRN coastal waters Fri aftn... Primarily
due to continued onshore swell. Elevated seas around 5ft are
expected to linger through Fri night for NRN coastal waters
before subsiding below 5ft by sunrise Sat morning. Waves on ches
bay will average 4-5ft in areas south of new point comfort and
3ft north. SCA flags have been hoisted for all waters beginning
at 700am Fri morning except the upper james river where winds
will stay AOB 15kt.

Weak high pressure returns to the region sat/sun with northerly
winds AOB 15kt Sat and AOB 10kt sun. Seas average 2-4ft. However
once the exiting low moves far enough ewd, seas could re-build
to 5ft far NRN coastal waters Sat aftn into Sun as a result of
northerly swell. Waves generally 1-2ft. High pressure slides
offshore Sun night/mon as the next low pressure system deepens
over the ARKLATEX region/lower ms valley. The low is now
expected to track across the southeast states Mon night and into
the mid atlantic region on tue... Exiting well east of the
delmarva coast Tue evening/overnight. Next best chance for sca
conditions will be Mon night into Tue morning. Winds generally
se-s 15-25kt, seas building to 4-6ft, and waves averaging 3ft.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am to 7 pm edt Friday for anz635-
636-638.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 10 pm edt Friday for
anz630>634.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Friday to 7 am edt Saturday for
anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Friday to midnight edt Friday
night for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Ajz/mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Bmd
aviation... Lsa
marine... Bmd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 11 mi44 min E 12 G 16 46°F 56°F1019.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi44 min ESE 13 G 16 1020 hPa
44089 23 mi32 min 45°F4 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi32 min SSE 14 G 18 47°F 51°F2 ft1019.4 hPa (-1.5)
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi32 min SSE 16 G 19 47°F 48°F2 ft1018.3 hPa (-1.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi44 min ESE 15 G 17 47°F 55°F1019.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi44 min SE 12 G 14 48°F 55°F1018.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi44 min ESE 11 G 17 52°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 46 mi44 min SE 20 G 22 49°F 1018.3 hPa
44072 47 mi32 min SE 18 G 19 48°F 50°F2 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi44 min SSE 20 G 21

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA8 mi37 minE 710.00 miOvercast46°F37°F70%1019.6 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA20 mi38 minESE 1010.00 miOvercast45°F37°F74%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3NE4NE6NE7NE8E8E11E9E10E7E8E10E7E7E7E6E9SE7
1 day agoW4NW4NW3NW6N8N10
G15
N8N5N4N6N4N6N6N10NW8NW8NW7NW10
G15
NW6N7SE6E4SE5S3
2 days agoS9S9S8S7S6S6S6S5S6S5S5S6S7SW8SW9SW5SW12SW17
G22
W13
G17
SW10W11SW4W5W5

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
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Thu -- 02:00 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:24 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:45 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.82.42.62.421.40.6-0-0.4-0.4-0.10.51.31.92.32.21.91.40.70.1-0.3-0.4-0.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:42 AM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:08 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.12.221.610.40-0.2-0.20.20.71.31.821.91.51.10.50.1-0.2-0.20.10.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.