Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:18PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:00 AM EST (13:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:53AMMoonset 5:03PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 631 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 631 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach from the west today and cross the waters tonight. Low pressure will develop offshore Wednesday. High pressure will return for late in the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for the waters Wednesday night through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 161207
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
707 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will slide offshore today into tonight. A cold
front crosses the area Wednesday morning with low pressure
moving northeast along the coast Wednesday afternoon and night.

A second surge of arctic air pushes across the area Wednesday
night into Thursday before temperatures moderate into next
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Current WV imagery and model analysis depicts a potent upper
trough digging across the midwest, with broad SW flow aloft from
the gulf coast across the mid-atlantic and into coastal new
england. At the surface, 1040+ mb high pressure is retreating to
the NE over ERN canada, but the surface ridge axis still
extends well to the SW into the mid-atlantic. Meanwhile, an
inverted trough is located off the coast, and light NE flow
associated with this feature has pushed a marine layer inland
with fog and stratus covering much of the area with the
exception of the far WRN piedmont. Temperatures early this
morning range from the upper teens over the piedmont to the low
30s along the coast.

High pressure will gradually erode today with the inverted
trough still lingering off the coast. Therefore, fog and stratus
will be slow to erode this morning, and mixing will be limited
today. This will offset modest mid-level WAA and high
temperatures today will only rebound to the low mid 40s, which
are near seasonal averages.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
The potent upper trough will pivot sewd tonight across the ohio
valley and into the cumberland plateau, with the cold front
pushing across the mountains and into the piedmont by 06-12z
Wednesday. The vigorous upper level feature will continue to
trundle ewd across the region Wednesday as the cold front
gradually pushes through the region with snow overspreading the
region and affecting the commute Wednesday morning across wrn
and central portions. Pcpn could briefly begin as rain,
especially toward the coast. 16 00z gfs ECMWF nam cmc
demonstrate decent agreement with this feature, with some slight
timing differences in the latter stages, mainly 18-00z
Wednesday with the ECMWF cmc slightly slower. Given this, pops
have been increased to categorical across the piedmont after 06z
tonight into midday Wednesday, and for central and s- central
va Wednesday morning. Likely pops have been maintained for se
va NE nc, with likely pops for the middle peninsula northern
neck lower ERN shore tapering to chc for the lower md ERN shore.

Model consensus supports QPF of 0.2-0.3" across the piedmont
and s-central va and northampton nc, bordered by 0.1-0.2" from
central va to SE va and NE nc, with 0.1" or less farther ne.

Expect some variability in slrs, but generally ratios of 12-15:1
are expected during the highest pops, which supports 2-4" of
snow across the piedmont, with 1-3" for the i-95 corridor of
central and s-central va into northampton nc. Given this, a
winter weather advisory has been issued for these locations
generally beginning late tonight and extending into Wednesday
aftn. There is the potential for a narrow band of negative epv
over the SW piedmont and there could be a very narrow corridor
of 4-6" of snow. This would be very localized and hard to pin-
down, so there is no need for a watch or warning at this time.

We will need to watch for sharpening axis of f-gen oprh depicted
by the high-res NAM as it may portend to a period of moderate
snow even into hampton roads Wednesday aftn. No advisories have
been issued yet for hampton roads, but may eventually be
necessary as it could affect the aftn commute. High temperatures
will generally be 30-35f, but will likely fall into the
mid upper 20s across the NW half of the area during the aftn.

The sky will clear quickly Wednesday night as a quick shot of
arctic air surges into the region. Shallow mixing is expected to
persist overnight, which should inhibit temperatures from
plummeting too far. Still cold nonetheless with lows in the mid
teens inland to the upper teens low 20s for coastal SE va NE nc.

Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly Thursday with 850mb
temperatures of -2 to -4c at 12z warming to +4-6c by 21z. A cold
start to the day, limited mixing, and mid-level WAA should
result in rather stable lapse rates and surface high
temperatures should only reach the upper 30s to low 40s.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Pattern change looks to occur during the medium range period with a
significant warmup expected through the upcoming weekend early next
week. It will still be on the cold side Thu night with sfc high
pressure centered across the deep south, and one last upper trough
moving SE through the great lakes and off the new england coast fri
morning. Mostly clear skies will prevail over the local area with
lows mainly in the 20s though depending on remaining snow cover,
some upper teens will be possible across interior southern va.

Latest gfs ECMWF cmc depict the upper trough moving well off the new
england coast Fri with a broad upper level ridge building over the
eastern CONUS Fri aftn through the weekend. Expect continued dry
conditions with warming temperatures, highs in the upper 40s lower
50s fri, rising well into the 50s (possibly near 60f) sat, and into
the 60s (except at the immediate coast eastern shore) for sun. Lows
fri night Sat am in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and Sat night Sun am in
the 30s to around 40f. Some timing differences arise by sun
night mon, but overall expect increasing clouds ahead of the next
front Sun night and will carry a chc for showers Mon mon night. Mild
with lows in the 40s and highs Mon mainly in the 60s.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Wide variety of conditions this with primarily ifr to lifr ceilings
for the eastern half of the CWA and mainly clear skiesVFR west of i-
95. Fog continues to linger mainly along and east of i-95 across the
area of low ceilings, fog may be locally dense at times. Conditions
slowly improve through day today with lower ceilings visibilities
expected to linger near the coast through the early afternoon.

Conditions will deteriorate once again Tuesday night as a potent
upper level trough brings thickening and lowering clouds. Light
winds will average 5 knots or less for the most part which will tend
to keep an onshore flow at the immediate coast, but shifting to the
s well inland.

Outlook: expect flight restrictions on Wed with snow showers as
clipper and associated cold front crosses the region. Clearing wed
night with breezy N winds near the coast. PredominateVFR then
likely Thu Fri as the trough ejects NE offshore.

Marine
Marine dense fog advisory is in effect until 10 am est for all
the waters minus the northern ocean zones. Cams sfc obs continue
to show visibilities under 1 nm. Fog will slowly dissipate
through the morning.

High pressure centered over eastern canada and ridging to the
ssw along the piedmont has resulted in nne winds of 10 to 20
knots across the waters this morning. Seas range generally range
from 4 to 7 feet and waves range from 1 to 2 feet (up to 3 feet
at the mouth of the bay). Scas have been extended for the
coastal waters as seas will remain at or above 5 feet,
especially out 20 nm, today. Winds are expected to diminish this
afternoon as a weak surface ridge settles near the coast. A
surface cold front crosses the the coast Tuesday night with
strong CAA lagging behind until the upper trough arrives
Wednesday evening into Thursday. Winds become NW Wednesday and
increase to 15 to 25 knots by Wednesday evening. Scas were
extended over the coastal waters through Thursday due to current
seas and anticipated wind seas with the next event. Scas will
likely be needed for the bay as well Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure settles over the area by Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night, and then slides off the southeast
coast Friday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
ncz012.

Va... Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 3 pm est
Wednesday for vaz048-060>062-069-509-510.

Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
vaz081-087>089-092.

Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
vaz065>068-079-080-511>516.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz630>638-
654-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Thursday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Synopsis... Ajz mam
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Lkb
aviation... Ajb
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi43 min NNW 1 G 1.9 30°F 32°F1032.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi49 min Calm G 1
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi31 min E 1.9 G 1.9 31°F 1031.9 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi91 min N 1.9 30°F 1033 hPa29°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi31 min N 3.9 G 7.8 30°F 1034.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi43 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 30°F 34°F1032.2 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi43 min SSE 2.9 G 6 29°F 32°F1031.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi43 min NNW 11 G 13 1032.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi43 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 30°F 35°F1032.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi43 min NNW 8 G 9.9 31°F 1032.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi43 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 29°F 1033.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi43 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 30°F 31°F1032.9 hPa
44072 48 mi31 min N 5.8 G 7.8 30°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi66 minN 010.00 miOvercast31°F28°F94%1032.5 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi66 minN 010.00 miOvercast31°F28°F92%1033.2 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW6N4NW4NW5NW4NW6N6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm
1 day agoN5NW11
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N8N5NE5N8N8N8N6N4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3N5N3N5N5N5N4
2 days agoNW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:08 AM EST     1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:34 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:33 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:25 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.41.20.90.50.1-0.1-0.10.20.61.11.61.81.91.71.40.90.50.2-000.30.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:15 AM EST     1.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:43 PM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:27 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.41.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.10.10.511.51.81.91.71.40.90.50.1-0.1-00.20.71.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.