Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:21PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 6:47 PM EDT (22:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:48PMMoonset 5:34AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 625 Pm Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 625 Pm Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through tonight before settling to the south Wednesday. Low pressure will move northward along the coast Wednesday night and it will pass through our area Thursday. High pressure will return for late in the week into the weekend. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters late Thursday through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191933
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
333 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains near the local area tonight then slides
offshore of new england Wednesday. The next low pressure system
impacts the region on Thursday. Drier weather expected Friday
through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 240 pm edt Tuesday...

sfc hi pres is currently settling over the local area... Providing
a cool but dry afternoon. Meanwhile... A frontal boundary remains
nearly stationary INVOF nrn fl. Expecting a mainly skc and chilly
night (w winds generally lgt vrb... Ne blo 10 mph at the coast
in SE va-ne nc). Lows around 30f N and W to the u30s- l40s at
the immediate coast in SE va-ne nc.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
As of 250 pm edt Tuesday...

sfc hi pres slides offshore of new england Wed W a coastal
trough sitting offshore of the carolinas. Mostly skc inland
(n and nw)... Partly cloudy or increasing clouds toward SE va-ne
nc by Wed afternoon evening. A strong trough digs through the
oh tn valleys Wed night then to the E coast by late thu... W sfc
lo pres developing off ERN nc. Lo pres is forecast to track nne
near the coast (nam farthest W more inland... GFS farthest E just
off the coast) late Wed night-thu... Spreading ra into the fa
from the s. Will increase pops to 60-80% after midnight wed
night and continue through Thu morning before beginning to taper
off from SW to NE late in the day. QPF 1 2 to 3 4 inch.

Drying clearing out by late Thu night and dry a bit breezy fri.

Highs Wed in the l-m50s at the coast... Around 60f inland. Lows
wed night from the u30s N and W to the m40s e. Highs Thu ranging
through the 50s. Lows Thu night from the u30s W to the l40s se.

Highs Fri in the l-m50s on the ERN shore to around 60f elsewhere.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 225 pm edt Tuesday...

sfc hi pres and dry wx settle over the local area for the
weekend (though a bit breezy Fri night into sat... ESP ern
portions). By mon... That sfc hi pres will be off the SE conus
coast while lo pres and its associated cold front will be
starting to take shape gather moisture from the oh valley to the
lower ms valley. The cold front will be pushing S through the
area Mon night into Tue morning W a trailing area of lo pres
tracking by to the S as colder sfc hi pres builds SE out of
canada. The 12z 19 GFS appears to be having low level sfc
temperature issues and is forecasting a winter storm (esp across
srn SE va-ne nc). Have thrown that scenario out right now due
to those issues (and the fact that each time cold air has chased
ra this winter... There was very little or no sn). Will increase
pops to 50-80% (for ra) across much of the fa Mon night into
tue morning then begin to taper the pops down from NW to SE into
tue night.

Lows Fri night from the l30s along-w of I 95 to the u30s along
coastal SE va-ne nc. Highs Sat in the l-m50s at the coast in
va-md to 60-65f inland. Lows Sat night in the m-u30s inland to
40-45f at the coast. Highs Sun in the u50s-l60s near the bay and
on the ERN shore to the u60s-l70s elsewhere. Lows Sun night in
the m-u40s. Highs Mon from 60-65f near the bay and on the ern
shore to the u60s-l70s inland. Lows Mon night in the u30s NW to
the m40s se. Highs Tue in the m-u40s N and NW to the m50s se.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 100 pm edt Tuesday...

vfr conditions are expected through the 18z TAF forecast period
as sfc hi pres INVOF fa ATTM drifts off the coast (into wed).

Flight restrictions due to lowering CIGS vsbys in ra fg late wed
night through Thu as lo pres initially off the nc coast tracks
nne near the coast. Drier conditions return (by) late thu
night Fri as winds shift to the nw.VFR conditions are expected
sat.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Tuesday...

afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered from ERN oh
to md, with a broad area of low pressure well off the southeast
us coast. Winds are mainly out of the N or NE at 10-15 kt
across the va md marine zones (highest S lowest n). Over the ne
nc coastal waters currituck sound, winds are in the 15-20 kt
range. Seas remain around 5 ft (even nearshore) over anz658,
while seas are mainly in the 2-3.5 ft range elsewhere as per
buoy obs (perhaps closer to 4 ft at the va nc border). NE winds
will remain in the 15-20 kt range through the night over NE nc,
while winds remain 10-15 kt range elsewhere (perhaps a bit
higher over the ocean from CAPE charles to the va nc border).

Cannot rule out a few gusts to 20 kt over the lower bay lower
james river overnight at the typical elevated sites. In
addition, seas will likely hover around 5 ft off the NE nc coast
through the day on wed.

Winds are progged to decrease Wed aftn-wed night as the
pressure gradient (briefly) relaxes. Low pressure develops off
the carolina coast early Thu then tracks NE toward the region
during the day before departing Thu night-early fri. While there
is still some disagreement in the 12z 19 models regarding the
exact track strength of the low, model consensus tracks the low
from nc to SE va to the DELMARVA region. This would bring a
period of marginal sca-level southeasterly flow during the day
on thu, so went ahead and increased the magnitude of SE winds
with this forecast package (although didn't quite go to sca
levels). Regardless, it is looking highly likely that scas will
be needed for elevated seas (and possibly winds). Continue to
expect at least some changes to this portion of the forecast to
change over the next couple of model cycles given the degree of
uncertainty in the forecast. As for headlines, scas have been
extended through midday Wed for the currituck sound due to 20 kt
gusts. Went ahead and extended the SCA to Thu am for anz658
(for persistent 5 ft seas). The SCA for anz658 will likely have
to be extended further in upcoming forecast packages, but did
not want to go beyond 4th period W headlines.

Robust west and northwesterly flow will follow in the wake of the
low pressure with high pressure approaching from the west, a
tightening pressure gradient, and modest cold advection as the low
deepens to our northeast. A stronger surge of CAA is progged to
enter the area Fri night-sat am. SCA headlines are looking
very likely for Friday into Saturday for most (if not all)
marine zones. Some of the guidance is hinting at the potential
for high-end scas Fri night-sat am.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Thursday for anz658.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Wednesday for anz633.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Alb
short term... Alb
long term... Alb
aviation... Alb lkb
marine... Eri rhr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi36 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 46°F 48°F1029.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi30 min SE 6 G 7
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi24 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 46°F 49°F1030.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi78 min N 1.9 52°F 1030 hPa24°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi24 min NE 12 G 14 46°F 48°F1026.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi30 min E 7 G 8 46°F 47°F1029.3 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi36 min N 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 1028.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi30 min N 8 G 8.9 1030.4 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi30 min ENE 11 G 13 46°F 50°F1029.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi30 min ENE 4.1 G 6 46°F 1030.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi30 min ENE 17 G 18 46°F 1029.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi30 min N 5.1 G 8 48°F 52°F1030 hPa
44072 48 mi28 min 46°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi73 minNE 510.00 miFair50°F20°F31%1029.1 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi73 minN 510.00 miFair51°F20°F31%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3NE7NW5NW4N6N4N4
1 day agoE8SE6E6E6E4CalmE3NE4CalmNE3CalmCalmSE4NE4NE5E9E5N7NE6NE8E7E8N9
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2 days agoCalmCalmE3N4NE5NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmNE6SW3SW3NW6CalmW9NW6N5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:14 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.81.510.50-0.2-0.300.61.31.82.22.21.91.50.90.4-0.1-0.2-0.20.30.91.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:06 AM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:37 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:22 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.81.51.10.50.1-0.2-0.3-00.51.21.82.12.221.510.4-0-0.2-0.20.20.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.