Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

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Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:26PM Monday July 23, 2018 11:39 AM EDT (15:39 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 1:43AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1032 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft. Showers likely with scattered tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will approach from the west today and stall just to our west early to mid-week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231502
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1102 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Synopsis
A moist southerly flow, coupled with a low pressure trough
aloft over the tennessee valley and southeast u.S., will result
in an unsettled pattern into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1100 am edt Monday...

this morning, deep upper trough remains fm the oh valley into
the SE u.S., with an upper ridge well out over the NRN atlc.

Moist sse flow persists in this pattern, and coupled with
energy lift in advance of the upper trough, periodic showers and
tstms continue to move S to N acrs the region.

This will continue to be the cast today into tonight, although
the pcpn will likely shift a bit westward into the cntrl and wrn
counties this aftn and evening, as the trough to the west
becomes even more negatively tilted, due to another short wave
moving around it. Will have 50-70% pops today thru this evening
acrs the region. Any heavier showers or stronger tstms will
produce locally heavy rainfall, as pw's will be near 2". In
addition, SPC has our cntrl and WRN counties in a marginal risk
for svr tstms, with isolated damaging wind gusts the main
threat. Highs today will be 80 to 85.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
As of 455 am edt Monday...

the wet and unsettled weather continues into Wed night, but the
upper level trough to the west looks like it will finally start
to weaken and shift eastward Wed into Wed night. High chc to
likely pops will continue acrs the area tonight through wed,
then pops begin to decrease fm the wnw Wed night.

Given the lack of a real low level focus, it does not seem like
there is a significant flooding threat. But, as the week goes
on, the more saturated the ground will become, so will the
potential for flash flooding will become simply due to the
water not being able to soak into the ground. Wed may be the
best day for any heavy rainfall given that the upper trough will
finally move eastward helping to allow for better upper
forcing. It will be very humid through the period, but not
terribly warm. Highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Lows in the 70s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 400 pm edt Sunday...

after two days of fairly good consensus between models, the
most recent 12z GFS euro runs have diverged in their solutions
days 5-7 and beyond. Thursday will start off wet, especially in
the northern neck and delmarva. The GFS initiates afternoon
convection across much of the area, especially along and west of
i-95 on Thursday... While the euro lingers a low-end rain chance
along and east of i-95. Went with a gfs-favored solution to
begin the day, but trended more towards the euro Thursday night
by tapering chance pops eastward along east of the i-95
corridor. Friday, the best opportunity for rain will be across
extreme SE va NE nc, with more isolated convection further
northwest. Saturday will feature scattered afternoon storms
across much of the area, with action waning after sunset once
again. Sunday has the potential of being the most unsettled day
of next weekend, with consistent signals in the models of a
developing low pressure over the ohio valley. This will send a
modest impulse of mid-upper level energy eastward into our area,
sparking thunderstorms across the piedmont that move towards
the coast during the afternoon and evening hours.

Ensembles indicate the potential for a continued pattern of
troughiness wet weather across much of the mid-atlantic through at
least the beginning of next week. The typical "oven-baked" july
temperatures that we can experience this time of year will not be an
issue for now... As 850mb remain a consistent 16-18 degc. In other
words, afternoon 2m temps will remain in the upper 80s around 90
degf for thurs-sun, so no extreme heat to worry about. Overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s carry us into the start of the next work
week.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
As of 200 am edt Monday...

a rather unsettled period of weather will continue into wed, as
a deep upper trough remains in place to the west of the area.

Broad southerly moist flow will allow for periodic showers and
tstms especially at ric phf orf ecg with brief MVFR conditions.

Otherwise, expect mainlyVFR conditions at the TAF sites when it
is not raining today into tue.

Unsettled weather continues into wed. ExpectVFR or MVFR conditions
at all sites with some isolated ifr conditions possible in heavier
showers tstms. Some improvement possible later in the week.

Marine
As of 420 am edt Monday...

low pressure is located over the SRN appalachians early this
morning with a sse wind averaging 10-20kt. Seas are 4-6ft S to
5-7ft N along with 2-3ft waves in the bay and up to 4ft at the
mouth of the bay. The wind for today into tonight and Tuesday is
generally expected to be 15-20kt for the bay ocean, and
occasionally 20-25kt. Seas will generally be 5-8ft N to 4-6ft s
today, and then mainly 4- 6ft into Tuesday, with 2-4ft waves in
the bay. Scas remain as is, with sub-sca conditions possible in
the bay by Tuesday night. Higher confidence of SCA conditions
continuing for seas in the ocean Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Otherwise, the wind is expected to average ~15kt for the
sound lower james today through Tuesday, with 10-15kt for the
remaining river zones.

The pattern persists through Tuesday night Wednesday with a sse wind
of at least 10-20kt continuing along with seas remaining AOB 5ft. A
cold front approaches from the northwest later in the week, with the
wind shifting to S then SW and diminishing to 10-15kt.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 1045 am edt Monday...

issued a coastal flood advisory for this evening for the
chesapeake bay side of the lower md eastern shore. The
persistent SE flow combined with the large waves near the mouth
of the chesapeake bay is starting to allow water to back up in
the bay, especially across the northern bay. As such, anomalies
are around 1.5 ft above astronomical tide. Anomalies will
likely go up today as the currents in the mouth of the bay will
struggle to ebb much during the day... Allowing water to stay in
the bay. In the same fashion, have issued a statement for the
potomac side of the northern neck as high tide levels will come
close to minor flood conditions. This area will need to be
monitored for a coastal flood advisory as well. See no reason
why anomalies will decrease much tomorrow into tomorrow night
either, so another round of coastal flood advisories will be
likely again for Tuesday night's high tide cycle.

A high risk of rip currents if forecast today for all beaches
along with the potential for dangerous shorebreak. More than
likely, there will be a moderate or high risk of rip currents
along the beaches for much of the week due to the persistent se
flow.

Equipment
As of 320 pm edt Saturday...

kdox radar is inoperable due to a failure of the motor. All
parts will not arrive until Tuesday july 24. Return to service
is unknown at this time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 4 am edt
Tuesday for mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for anz635-636-638.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Tuesday for anz630>632-634-
650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Mas tmg
short term... Tmg mrd
long term... Bms
aviation... Tmg
marine... Ajz
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi45 min S 11 G 14 76°F 78°F1015.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi45 min S 16 G 19
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi39 min S 18 G 21 77°F 80°F3 ft1014.4 hPa (+1.0)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi69 min SE 2.9 80°F 1015 hPa77°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi39 min S 18 G 21 78°F 80°F3 ft1014.8 hPa (+1.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi39 min SSE 13 G 17 78°F 80°F1015.2 hPa (+1.0)
NCDV2 39 mi39 min ESE 17 G 19 78°F 77°F1013.7 hPa (+0.9)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi39 min SE 16 G 18 1015.7 hPa (+0.9)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi45 min SE 14 G 22 78°F 80°F1013.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi39 min S 22 G 24 77°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.9)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi39 min S 22 G 27 77°F 1016 hPa (+0.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi39 min ESE 13 G 17 77°F 82°F1016.1 hPa (+1.3)
44072 48 mi39 min S 18 G 21 77°F 79°F3 ft

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi61 minE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F75°F89%1014.9 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi64 minSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F73°F85%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE12SE9SE11
G15
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E6SE4E4SE3E3CalmE5SE7SE6E4E5E8SE10E9E6E5SE6E10
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1 day agoN3E6E5E8E5E3NW8NW6W10W11
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W5CalmCalmCalmE5E7E3E4SE5
2 days agoE9S5S9SE9SE6E9E10
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SE8E7SE6E4E4E4E5NE4NE4NE4E7NE3NE3NE5NE6NE6N5

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:13 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:02 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:08 PM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.410.60.40.20.30.60.91.31.51.61.41.20.80.50.30.20.30.61.11.51.82

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:13 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:09 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:16 PM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.41.10.70.40.30.30.60.91.31.51.61.51.20.90.60.30.20.30.611.51.82

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.