Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:17PM Sunday May 20, 2018 10:09 AM EDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 731 Am Edt Sun May 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Isolated showers with patchy drizzle this morning, then scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 731 Am Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front approaching from the ohio valley will approach the waters today before passing through tonight. The boundary will stall to the south Monday before returning north as a warm front Monday night and Tuesday. Another cold front will pass through the waters later Wednesday and Wednesday night before high pressure possibly returns late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201226
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
826 am edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
Somewhat drier air will prevail today before another round of
increasing moisture returns Monday through Wednesday. A period
of dry weather looks promising by Thursday and Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am edt Sunday...

current analysis indicates a weakening flat upper level trough
over the great lakes oh valley (with a stronger upper level
trough now farther upstream over the southern plains). Sfc
frontal boundary resides N of the local area. Still enough moist
sw flow in place for scattered showers early this morning
across SE va NE nc while area of showers that had been ongoing
last evening closer to the mtns has genly diminished. Enough of
a low level ssw flow in place that fog will not be a concern
early this morning despite some low clouds. For today, pops will
remain in the forecast but will be much lower than the
widespread rain of the past few days as the upper level
trough weak shortwave energy aloft passes through the region.

After morning clouds, expect some partial sunshine this aftn and
this could lead to some isolated scattered late aftn evening
tstms. Highest pops this morning into the aftn over the se
(30-40%), but by the evening high res models are suggesting a
secondary area of showers tstms develops moves in from the wnw
and have 20-30% pops moving through all areas. Highs today will
avg in the mid- upper 80s over interior va and md, a little
cooler in NE nc and atlc beaches with highs mainly from 80 to 85
f. Partly mostly cloudy tonight with lows mainly from the mid
60s to around 70 f.

Short term Monday through Tuesday
As of 400 am edt Sunday...

on mon, will see some weak onshore NE flow develop for awhile
along the coast, but by aftn as the flow aloft shifts from the
w to the wsw... Expecting increasing moisture ahead of the next
approaching systems from the S and w. Partly sunny- mostly
cloudy W pops by afternoon rising to 30-50% inland in the
afternoon... 10-30% toward the ERN shore. SPC has marginal risk
svr now staying off to the NW of the local area. Highs in the
70s at the coast to the low- mid 80s inland.

Warm front pulls N of the region Mon night (w possible sct
shras-tstms)... And will have 40-60% pops all areas. Sfc high
pres off the SE CONUS coast remains in control tue. Low pres and
its accompanying cold front tracks through the midwest- oh
valley tue. Vrb clouds- partly sunny Tue W mainly diurnal pops
(20-40%) (tue) ahead of that system, but pops have been
increased later in the day W decent feed of moisture and lift
noted by latest nam GFS 00z runs. Lows Mon night in the low 60s
on the lower md ERN shore to the m-u60s elsewhere. Highs tue
from the m-u70s at the coast to 80-85f inland.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
As of 240 pm edt Saturday...

a respite from the wet wx pattern suggested by most extended
models for mid-late in the upcoming week. Just enough of a nw
flow aloft suggests that drying will take place after Wed and
last into next weekend. Lo pres passing by N of the region tue
night-wed will push a cold front (possibly accompanied by
shras tstms) E and S of the local area. Hi pres is then expected
to build into the region for thu-fri. By next sat... A return
flow from the ssw to set up potentially resulting in increasing
moisture gradual rise in pops.

Lows Tue night in the m-u60s. Highs Wed in the 70s-around 80f
at the coast to the m80s inland. Lows Wed night in the l-m60s.

Highs Thu from the u70s-m80s. Lows Thu night mainly 60-65f.

Highs Fri 80-85f... 70s at the immediate coast. Highs Sat in the
m-u80s inland... U70s-l80s at the coast.

Aviation 13z Sunday through Thursday
As of 800 am edt Sunday...

still some isolated scattered showers that may affect SE sites
through about 14 15z this morning, otherwise mainly MVFR cigs
early will lift scatter out toVFR conditions prior to noon most
areas. A SW of 8-12 kt is expected, with occasional gusts to
20kt possible. There is a 20-30% chc of showers tstms this aftn,
mainly towards the SE va NE nc coast. Another area of scattered
showers isolated tstms will be possible as a weak frontal
boundary drops through tonight. Still not really expecting
anything widespread but some brief flight restrictions will be
possible mainly from 00-06z N to 06-12z south. Could also see
some CIGS lowering towards sunrise on Mon but confidence in
that scenario is rather low at this time.

A chc of aftn evening showers tstms will continue Monday through
Wednesday. A moist airmass will remain over the region and a
potential will exist for patchy early morning fog and or
stratus. High pressure may build in from the N by Thursday.

Marine
As of 415 am edt Sunday...

ssw winds were mainly 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt early
this morning acrs the waters. Winds will become SW later this
morning into this aftn at 5-15 kt. Seas will be 3-4 ft, except
4-5 ft north of parramore island into this evening, where a sca
remains in effect. Waves 1-3 ft this morning, then 1-2 ft by
tonight. Another frontal boundary will drop into at least northern
portions of the area late tonight into Mon morning, but NE or e
winds will remain around 10 kt or less over the northern waters.

Thus, am expecting seas to remain between 2-4 ft on mon, with
waves fm 1-2 ft. The frontal boundary lifts back north of the
region Mon night into Tue morning, with winds becoming S 5-15 kt
during tue. SW winds 5-15 kt expected late Tue night into wed
morning. A cold front then drops through the region Wed night
into Thu morning, with winds turning northerly.

Hydrology
As of 530 am edt Sunday...

flood warnings have been cancelled for bremo bluff on the james
river, and rawlings on the nottoway river. Flood warnings continue
for the james and appomattox river basins. Warnings also continue
for the meherrin and nottoway rivers (at stony creek), as well
as portions of the chowan basin. Additional flood warnings
continue for the chickahominy, south anna and mattaponi rivers,
as well as the pocomoke river in md. See flwakq or flsakq for
more details.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 415 am edt Sunday...

a coastal flood advisory will remain in effect until 9 am for
areas adjacent to the potomac river on the northern neck, and
also for the chesapeake bay side of the lower md eastern shore
until 11 am for this morning's high tide cycle. Water levels
will run 1-1.5 ft above normal, resulting in minor tidal
flooding at lewisetta, bishops head and cambridge.

Climate
As of 200 am edt Sunday...

* ric monthly rainfall total through 5 19 is now 8.84" (already
ranks as 5th wettest may on record). (precipitation records
date back to 1880)
* sby monthly rainfall total through 5 19 is now 8.51" (already
ranks as 3rd wettest may on record). (precipitation records
date back to 1906)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for
mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 9 am edt this morning for vaz075-
077.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz650-
652.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Alb
aviation... Lkb
marine... Tmg
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi51 min WSW 12 G 15 74°F 70°F1017.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi51 min W 8.9 G 9.9
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi39 min WSW 12 G 14 73°F 1017.3 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi99 min SW 2.9 75°F 1020 hPa72°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi39 min W 16 G 19 73°F 1023.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi51 min WSW 15 G 21 74°F 68°F1017.6 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi51 min WSW 9.9 G 16 75°F 70°F1016.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi51 min SSW 12 G 13 1019.7 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi51 min SW 7 G 13 74°F 71°F1018.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi51 min WSW 16 G 18 74°F 1019.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi51 min WSW 11 G 19 74°F 1018.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi51 min SW 11 G 14 71°F 70°F1018.4 hPa
44072 48 mi39 min WSW 14 G 18 73°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi74 minSSW 8 G 1410.00 miOvercast76°F70°F85%1018.6 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi74 minSSW 9 G 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F68°F81%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4CalmS3N6NE6E10NE10
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2 days agoW5S5S4S3SE5SE8S7E6SE5E3CalmCalmE3E3E3E4SE5E3E3E5CalmE3SE5S3

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:29 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:29 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 PM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.20.81.31.82.12.11.91.51.10.60.2-0-00.30.81.31.71.81.81.51.10.70.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:39 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:35 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:13 PM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.20.71.31.82.12.221.61.10.70.2-0-00.20.71.21.61.81.81.51.20.70.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.