Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:58PM Friday November 16, 2018 9:15 PM EST (02:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:41PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 637 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Saturday...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 637 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley today through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and a weak cold front may pass through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 170026
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
726 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over new england will accelerate away from the area
through tonight. High pressure resumes control behind the
departing low and remains over the region through the weekend
and into next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 245 pm Friday...

latest upper level analysis reveals strong upper level
shortwave in the process of ejecting NE across coastal new
england. This feature offshore of the E ma coast will
accelerate off to the northeast to atlantic canada tonight, with
the associated (and still deepening) potent sfc low reaching
newfoundland labrador by late tonight. Resultant w-sw downslope
flow has allowed for a mainly sunny, breezy and cool fall
afternoon across the region. Temperatures at 20z mainly in the
upper 40s to mid 50s across the area.

Continued mainly clear tonight. Surface high pressure currently
over the mid-south gulf coast regions will build across the
region tonight into Saturday, with winds slowly diminishing this
evening. Clear sky, drying airmass and diminishing winds should
allow for quickly falling temps this evening. Look for early
morning lows in the 30s inland (some upper 20s far nw) to low
40s for coastal SE va NE nc early Saturday morning.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
As of 245 pm est Friday...

sensible weather over the weekend into early next week
characterized by gradually moderating temperatures, as
previously referenced sfc high pressure builds overhead.

Progressive, quasi-zonal will bring a quiet, pleasant weekend.

Despite the modest warm up, temperatures remain at or just
below climo norms. Highs in the 50s to near 60 each day. Early
morning lows ranging through the 30s to near 40.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 253 pm est Friday...

fairly quiet weather expected through at least Thu night, as the
large-scale pattern will be characterized by a longwave trough
centered over ERN canada. This will put us in NW flow aloft through
thu. At the sfc, weak low pressure tracks from the great lakes to
new england from Mon night-tue. This will drag a cold front through
the region during the first part of the day on tue. While moisture
will be lacking with this fropa, there is a slight chc of light rain
over the northwestern half of the CWA from Mon night-tue. Dry
weather will prevail from Tue aftn-thu night as sfc high pressure
settles over the region. The latest gfs ECMWF gem are in agreement
that an area of low pressure develops over the central ERN gulf of
mexico late next week and then moves nne ne. However, the models
differ on the evolution of this feature. The GFS is fastest as it
tracks it to just off the nc coast by late Fri night. This solution
would bring rain to the eastern half of the CWA as early as late
Friday am. Both the ECMWF gem are slower with the NE movement of the
low, as they keep our entire CWA dry through next Saturday am. At
this time, am leaning slightly toward the ECMWF gem solution. Went
ahead and introduced slight chc pops over SE va NE nc on fri
increasing to between 15-30% over southern eastern parts of the cwa
by Sat am.

Highs in the 50s on Tue will drop into the mid-upper 40s
north around 50 south on wed. Warming back up into the 50s area-wide
on Thu fri. Lows Tue Wed night mainly in the low 30s inland upper
30s to around 40 in coastal SE va-ne nc. Slightly warmer on thu
night with lows ranging from the low 30s NW to the low-mid 40s over
the far se.

Aviation 01z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 625 pm est Friday...

vfr conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF period as hi
pres builds across the southeast and mid-atlantic states. Hi
pres prevails for the latter half of the weekend into next week
with continuedVFR conditions expected.

Marine
As of 720 pm est Friday...

cancelled the SCA headline for the coastal waters S of parramore
island where seas have settled in to 3-4 ft. Only remaining
headlines are for the coastal waters N of parramore island for
seas up to 5 ft.

The coastal low continues to lift northeast toward the canadian
maritimes and high pressure over the southeastern us continues
to push into the region with winds slowly diminishing across the
region and at the same times the seas wave heights continue to
fall as well. This trend should come to an end this evening as
the winds should level off for a period time through the early
morning hours at 10 - 15 kts as another weak surge of cold
advection kicks in briefly. By Saturday morning however, expect
to see the surface high moving over the waters and the winds and
seas should again drop. The surface high will slide off the
coast by Sunday evening with a light east to SE flow developing
for Sunday night into Monday. An approaching cold front will
reach the waters late Monday into Monday night turning the winds
westerly and eventually northwesterly Tuesday into Wednesday
before a large sprawling canadian high pressure system arrives
on Wednesday. As the cold air arrives, could see another period
of SCA conditions with the northerly flow Tuesday night into
wed.

Hydrology
As of 1150 am est Friday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Palmyra on the rivanna.

Richmond westham on the james.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Saturday for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Alb mam
marine... Ess lkb
hydrology... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi34 min W 7 G 8.9 46°F 49°F1017 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi34 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi26 min WNW 12 G 14 48°F 1016.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi46 min SSW 1 42°F 1018 hPa39°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi26 min W 12 G 14 49°F 1018.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi28 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 53°F1017.2 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi34 min N 1.9 G 4.1 39°F 47°F1016.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi28 min W 18 G 20 1017.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi28 min SW 8.9 G 11 47°F 54°F1017.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi28 min W 12 G 14 48°F 1018 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi28 min N 14 G 16 47°F 1018 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi28 min N 5.1 G 8 45°F 48°F1017.5 hPa
44072 48 mi26 min W 12 G 16 50°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair40°F35°F83%1017.6 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair42°F37°F85%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW3N4N5N4N6N3N5N3N5N4N5N4N4N4N6NW8N5N4N5CalmN3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:25 AM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     1.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:33 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:16 PM EST     1.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.50.711.31.51.61.61.41.20.90.70.60.60.711.41.61.81.71.61.31

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:33 AM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     1.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:25 PM EST     1.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.50.60.91.31.51.61.61.41.210.70.60.60.711.31.61.81.71.61.41.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.