Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:22PM Friday May 26, 2017 1:33 AM EDT (05:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:48AMMoonset 8:21PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1032 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers late this evening.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure and its associated cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure will build overhead Friday through Friday night before moving off the mid-atlantic coast Saturday. A warm front will stall out near the waters later Saturday and Sunday before a stronger cold front moves through Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260202
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1002 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will move off to the northeast of the region
overnight, with improving conditions on Friday. Warmer
temperatures and chance for showers and thunderstorms will
return over the weekend. A cold front will approach from the
west on memorial day.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Current analysis indicating sfc low pressure centered over
southern nj, with upper level low hanging back over
western central pa. Some scattered convection still pushing
through far NE sections of the cwa, with mainly dry conditions
elsewhere though will keep ~15% pop going through midnight with
a few spotty light showers still possible. Overnight... As drier
air continues to filter into the area and upper cold pool slides
farther off to the N ne, skies will avg partly cloudy most areas
(more clouds linger over the far n). Lows from the mid 50s W to
low 60s at the immediate coast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
Other than possible isold shras and vrb clouds far nne locations
early Fri as upper level low is slow to reach new england... Drying
out W deep layered wnw flow. Expecting a return of temperatures
back to or above normal W partly-mostly sunny conditions. Highs
mainly 80 to 85f... Except u70s at (most of) the beaches.

Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the wsw Fri night
into sat. Models in a bit better consensus W the arrival of
weak S W tracking into the fa by Sat afternoon. Combination of
daytime heating and that S W in wnw flow aloft will likely result
in at least sct convective development. Will have pops
increasing to 30-50% over most of the fa. SPC has outlooked
wrn central areas of fa slgt risk svr... Other areas marginal
svr. Otherwise... Partly cloudy Fri night- Sat morning... Then
becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon. Lows from the u50s NW to
the low 60s se. Highs Sat from the m-u70s- around 80f on the
eastern shore to the m-u80s inland.

Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into sun. Another S w
aloft expected to arrive during sun... Which again combined w
daytime heating likely results in sct convective development.

Lows Sat night ranging through the 60s. Partly sunny Sun w
highs mainly in the l-m80s (70s at the beaches).

Will highlight possible strong to severe tstms in hwo for the
weekend.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
The somewhat unsettled weather will continue into Monday with the
baroclinic zone nearby and a strong upper jet just north of the
area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms once again on
Monday in the cyclonic flow. It will be a warm day with highs in the
mid-upper 80s. The front will stall out over north carolina on
Tuesday and may allow for additional showers and storms Tuesday
across NE nc and south va. High pressure builds across the
region for Tue night-Thursday with dry and seasonable conditions
expected.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have mostly ended over the
cwa except for the eastern shore where it should end before
midnight. A few scattered showers still linger over portions of
central va and nc but should be ended in another hour or so.

Winds are mostly se-sw 10-15 kt and gusty. The winds will
diminish inland but will likely be 10-20 kt near the coastal
areas.VFR conditions will take hold tonight as drier weather
moves into the region.

Friday should be dry withVFR conditions, then sct showers and
storms return for Saturday into early next week as the pattern
remains somewhat unsettled.

Marine
Latest sfc analysis shows a broad area of low pres across the
mid atlc - oh valley with its main cold front already pushing
offshore. SW flow continues tonight behind the front, and still
looks to be enough of a gradient for 15-20 kt winds over most
waters... So headlines over the bay sound lwr james extend
through at least Fri morning. The SCA over the ocean is for seas
up to 5 ft out 20 nm. Weak high pres then builds in for late
fri Fri night leading to improving marine conditions. Sub-sca
conditions expected to continue into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
Previous onshore flow combined with high astro tides will
result in elevated water levels through Friday. Have issued
several coastal flood products to account for this. See cfwakq
for more details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for mdz024-
025.

Coastal flood warning until 6 am edt Friday for mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for vaz099-
100.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Friday for anz630>632-634-
650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Friday for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Friday for anz638-656-658.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb jdm
long term... Mrd
aviation... Mrd jef
marine... Mas
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi46 min W 9.9 G 14 62°F 68°F1001.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi46 min W 12 G 14
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi34 min W 16 G 19 64°F 66°F2 ft1000.8 hPa (+1.9)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi64 min Calm 59°F 1004 hPa56°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi34 min W 18 G 19 64°F 67°F2 ft1001.7 hPa (+2.1)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi46 min W 5.1 G 7 61°F 67°F
NCDV2 39 mi46 min WSW 6 G 9.9 60°F 67°F1000.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi46 min WSW 23 G 27 1002.7 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi46 min WSW 11 G 14 63°F 69°F1002.8 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi46 min W 18 G 20 64°F 1002.3 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 43 mi34 min SW 9.7 G 14 62°F 71°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi46 min WNW 8 G 12 60°F 1001.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi46 min WSW 20 G 23 65°F 68°F1001.7 hPa
44072 48 mi34 min W 18 G 21 65°F 67°F2 ft

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi59 minSW 610.00 miFair61°F51°F72%1002.4 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi59 minSW 810.00 miFair62°F55°F79%1003 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7
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W9CalmS9SW8SW9
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1 day agoN4N3CalmNE3CalmN3CalmNE5E7E7E6E4E4E7E7E8E9E10E10E11E11E9E9E11
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E3NE5NE7NE7E7E6NE5E7
G15
E8NE6NE6NE6NE4NE5NE5CalmN5NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:41 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:38 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:10 PM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:38 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.42.52.31.81.20.60-0.3-0.300.61.31.821.91.61.10.50-0.3-0.300.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:49 AM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:44 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:18 PM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:45 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.92.32.52.31.91.30.70.1-0.2-0.3-00.51.21.721.91.71.20.60.1-0.2-0.3-00.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.