Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:56PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 1:54 AM EDT (05:54 UTC) Moonrise 5:40AMMoonset 7:13PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 132 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Overnight..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will weaken as it moves up the mid-atlantic coast through morning. The low will move off to our north and east through today and a cold front will approach from the west Thursday night before dissipating on Friday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260203
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1003 pm edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks northeast along the mid atlantic coast
tonight... Then slowly moves offshore Wednesday. High pressure
builds into the area Thursday. A cold front stalls north of the
region Friday.

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/
Nearly vertically stacked lo pres making progress N INVOF coast
late this eve. Area of shras has been expanding over ERN va into
ne nc past few hours. Have kept pops 50-60% until after midnight
those areas. As lo pres continues N overnight... Area of pcpn
expected to pivot and progress nne... Thus have trended pops down
from ssw to nne late. Additionally... Kept mention of patchy
fog... ESP as ra winds down. Lows from the m50s to around 60f.

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/
The low is progged to be east of CAPE may nj by 12z Wed then slowly
pulls NE away from the region as an upper level ridge builds in from
the west. Thermal soundings cont to show some mid level moisture
trapped beneath a strong subsidence inversion aloft, which will help
keep clouds around most of the day across eastern zones. Even enough
lingering moisture around for sct showers through 15z or so along
the eastern shore. Appears enough subsidence across the west for
skies to become partly to mstly sunny after 18z. Highs 75-80 west of
the bay, upr 60s-lwr 70s along the coast.

Mostly clr / pt cldy Wed nite. Lows in the upr 50s to lwr 60s.

Ridge axis slides offshore ahead of an approaching cold front
Thursday. Increasing return flow and 850mb temps around +14 to +16c
(around +1 standard deviation) result in warm and dry conditions.

Highs in the mid 80s west of the bay, upr 70s-lwr 80s eastern shore,
cooler at the beaches.

Models differ a bit in returning moisture across the mts thurs nite.

Appears a weak trof moves east producing low chc shwrs after 06z.

Lows in the 60s. Weak trof pushes east Fri morning. Will keep slght
chc pops thru noon, then dry. Highs in the low to mid 80s except
remaining in the 70s at the beaches.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through
the weekend as an upper level ridge remains anchored over the
ern conus. 850mb temperatures ~18c will support highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 Saturday (75-80f at the immediate coast)
after morning lows in the mid/upper 60s. A weak front will knock
high temperatures down a few degrees Sunday over the ERN shore, with
low 80s expected and mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast. Meanwhile,
highs W of the bay will once again be into the upper 80s.

Aftn/evening chances for showers/tstms Saturday/Sunday will be low
and mainly AOB 20%. A cold front approaches from the W Monday.

Forecast highs Monday are in the low/mid 80s after morning lows in
the mid/upper 60s. 25/12z gfs/ecmwf/cmc support the best chc for
showers/tstms very late Monday aftn into Monday evening and shifting
to the coast late Monday night. Temperatures trend back toward
normal Tuesday with highs in the 70s.

Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/
Low pressure near va beach continues to move slowly north and
is expected to hug the coast as it moves off the DELMARVA and nj
coasts overnight. Widespread ifr ceilings will again develop
overnight across the cwa. Showers and a few tstms will affect
mostly the eastern portions of the cwa... Generally from caroline
county to richmond to emporia... During the overnight hours. Some
of these showers and tstms may produce periods of brief heavy
rain.

Stratus and widespread ifr ceilings are expected to redevelop
overnight as moisture wraps around the backside of the low pressure.

Guidance has also been persistent with the development of patchy fog
tonight and into tomorrow morning. Included MVFR visibilities for
tonight, but it is possible ifr visibilities may develop in a few
locations. Conditions will improve during the day on Wednesday,
returning toVFR Wednesday afternoon.

Light easterly flow is expected to continue through this
evening. Winds will shift to the w/nw as the low departs the
area tonight and Wednesday. Winds remain light on Wednesday,
generally 5-10 knots.

Outlook: aviation conditions improve through the day on Wednesday
withVFR expected to return to the area. A shower or thunderstorm
will be possible during the day on Friday, but otherwise,VFR and
dry conditions should dominate the extended period.

Marine
Latest sfc analysis shows strong sfc low pres near the va/nc coast.

With the low directly over the area, winds have diminished this
aftn to mainly sub-sca criteria. Waves and seas remain elevated
however, with 4 ft waves expected to continue over the mouth of
the bay for another few hours and seas AOA 5 ft through daytime
wed for southern coastal wtrs and through Wed night for
northern coastal wtrs. Also, a high surf advsry will remain in
effect for the lwr eastern shore beaches until early this eveng
as nearshore waves remain ~8 ft. The sfc low pulls NE of the
area late tonight into Wed with winds avgg AOB 10 kt and seas
slowly subsiding. Quieter marine conditions towards the end of
the week with persistent s/sw flow over the area until early
next week when the next cold front crosses the region.

Tides/coastal flooding
Current tidal departures continue to average around 1.0 to 1.5
feet, with strong low pressure pushing up the mid atlc coast.

With the high tidal anomalies and new moon tomorrow, expect many
areas to reach minor flooding tonight. Have hoisted several
coastal flood advisories and statements to account for this.

Think this tide will have the highest water levels this week,
but still cannot rule out some areas getting to minor again
wed/wed night.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for mdz024-
025.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until midnight edt tonight for
vaz084>086-523>525.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for vaz089-093-
095>097.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for vaz099-
100.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Thursday for anz650-652-
654.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Alb/mpr
near term... Alb
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajz
aviation... Ajb/jef
marine... Mas
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi54 min N 11 G 15 59°F 61°F1004.4 hPa (+0.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi54 min N 13 G 16
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi44 min N 12 G 18 58°F 1003.6 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi84 min NW 4.1 61°F 1006 hPa60°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi44 min N 12 G 14 60°F 1002.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi54 min NNW 8.9 G 13 57°F 60°F
NCDV2 39 mi54 min NW 1.9 G 5.1 58°F 61°F1005.5 hPa (-0.3)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi54 min NNW 15 G 16 1004.3 hPa (+0.4)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi54 min NW 14 G 17 61°F 63°F1004.5 hPa (+0.4)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi54 min NW 9.9 G 12 61°F 1003.9 hPa (+0.3)
44041 - Jamestown, VA 43 mi44 min NW 9.7 G 12 62°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi54 min N 15 G 20 56°F 1005.8 hPa (-0.5)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi54 min N 8 G 13 59°F 59°F1004.7 hPa (-0.4)
44072 48 mi44 min NW 9.7 G 14 61°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi59 minNW 57.00 miLight Drizzle59°F59°F100%1005.8 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi79 minNW 510.00 miOvercast60°F59°F97%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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E8NE7NE8NE7NE6NE3CalmN4N3NW4NW4NW5NW7NW6
1 day agoCalmCalmN3N5N7NE6NE7
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2 days agoN3N3CalmCalmNW3N4N4N4NE4N5N3E7NE8E8E6NE3NE3CalmNE5CalmCalmE6NE6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
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Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:03 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 01:38 PM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.42.321.40.90.3-0.1-0.2-0.10.41.11.72.12.11.91.50.90.4-0-0.2-0.10.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:18 AM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 01:48 PM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.32.321.50.90.4-0-0.2-0.10.30.91.622.11.91.510.4-0-0.2-0.20.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.