Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:18PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 6:47 PM EDT (22:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:58PMMoonset 7:58AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 436 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight edt tonight through Thursday evening...
Rest of this afternoon..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore through tonight. A warm front will approach the waters late tonight before passing through Thursday and a cold front will pass through the waters Thursday night. The cold front will stall out nearby for the rest of the weekend into early next week. A small craft advisory will be needed for the waters Friday, and possibly into Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 222020
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
420 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure settles offshore into tonight. This area of high
pressure then shifts well off the southeast coast Thursday into
Thursday night as low pressure passes north of the region.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 330 pm edt Wednesday...

winds will become sse though this evening, as sfc high over the
region nudges offshore, and remains near the coast through
early Thursday. Becoming mostly clear with an increase in mid
and high clouds western sections late. Small chance of some
very light rain sprinkles over the i-85 corridor towards morning
in association with some very shallow overrunning moisture.

Chances of measuring pcpn are very low over this area through
12z, so have pulled out rain chances and just showed increasing
clouds in grids. One more cool, comfortable night... As temperatures
fall quickly (especially coastal sections) then stabilize
overnight, with early morning low temperatures to range from the
mid 50s over the interior ERN shore and interior SE va NE nc,
to the upper 50s around 60f elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday night
As of 330 pm edt Wednesday...

the mid upper level ridge axis will push offshore Thursday
morning as a shortwave trough tracks through ERN great lakes.

Meanwhile, the low-level flow will become sw, which will allow
for slow moistening of the low-level airmass. Warmer high
temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90f are expected across
our area, with low 80s for much of the ERN shore and coastal se
va NE nc, and upper 70s at the immediate atlantic coast of the
ern shore.

We are continuing to monitor the potential for some thunderstorms
thu aftn and evening. SPC has added a small area of slight risk
over the far northern quarter of the area (ric to sby and
north). Convective threat for Thursday remains conditional; and
is dependent upon the development of an MCS upstream from kstl
to ksdf late tonight early thu. Should this feature develop as
modeled by cams, the MCS would push across from WV pa into S pa
and nj Thursday aftn and evening. This is expected to trigger
convection N of the region in a zone of 40-50kt 500mb flow and
35-45kt 700mb flow. Must note that this shortwave will dampen
upper ridging to a degree... With resultant quasi-downslope flow
serving to lower areal coverage of tstms over the local area.

That said, there is the potential for isolated to widely sct
outflow- driven tstms from this feature, which could move off
the higher terrain into the NW piedmont after 20z 4pm later
Thursday aftn, and potentially pushing across the NRN neck and
md ERN shore by mid to late Thursday evening. Obviously, a lot
has to go "right" for this convection to develop as modeled, and
for that reason... We will continue to cap pops at 30%-40% for now,
highest in the slight risk area from the NW piedmont counties to
the md ERN shore, bordered by 20% for much of the area, and
less than 15% far SRN va NE nc. The potential for some stronger
storms does exist, given cooling drying aloft... With large hail
and damaging winds the primary threats in any convection that
can make its way toward the area tomorrow evening.

Heat then builds for Friday through the weekend. Good model
agreement continues with respect to building strong upper ridge
back to the north Fri sat, before the ridge flattens late in
the holiday weekend courtesy of northern stream shortwave
sliding across the upper great lakes and SE canada. Increasingly
hot, though remaining mainly dry. Some isolated (mainly
diurnally driven) convection possible along lee troughing to the
west Sun afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s to near 90 on sat, 80s
along the coast, l-m 90s inland on Sunday. Early morning lows
60s to near 70.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 250 pm edt Wednesday...

summerlike temperatures remaining above normal through the extended
forecast period. An upper level anticyclone remains centered along
the gulf coast early next week, putting our region in w-nw flow
aloft. Meanwhile... An anomalous deep trough aloft will continue to
largely remain out over the WRN conus. Weak frontal boundary crosses
the area Sun evening-sun night, but only isolated tstms are expected
attm (mainly N ne). Isolated-scattered aftn evening tstms are
possible on mon, but the chance of this is only ~20%. Drying out
from tue-wed as upper ridging amplifies over the us east coast as
the aforementioned deep trough aloft ejects out into the NRN plains.

Lows Sun night in the u60s-around 70f. Highs Mon in the 80s over the
lower ERN shore to the low 90s inland. Highs Tue from the low 80s
over the ERN shore to near 90f inland. Forecast highs on Wed are in
the low 90s in most areas, but there is the potential for it to be
even warmer.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
As of 145 pm edt Wednesday...

high pressure centered N of the region will slide offshore
through this evening. Light nne winds become sse 5-10kt at
ric sby by late this aftn, and ese 5-10kt and phf orf ecg under
a mostly sunny sky (sct-bkn high clouds over eastern shore
around ksby terminal). By tonight, a light SE wind will become
sw under a mostly clear sky.

Outlook: there is a 20-30% chc of showers tstms (primarily ric-
sby and points n) after 20z 4pm later Thursday aftn evening as
a trough slides across the region in NW flow aloft. Mainly dry
conditions are expected Friday through the weekend as weak high
pressure prevails over the region.

Marine
As of 345 pm edt Wednesday...

high pressure will move off shore tonight. Winds overnight will
be 5-10 kt and seas will come down to around 1 ft in the bay
and 2-3 ft in the atlantic. As a cold front approaches from the
north, southwesterly winds will increase tomorrow afternoon. Not
going with any SCA for tomorrow afternoon because conditions
will be marginal. Gust may exceed 25 kt for a short period of
time and waves will touch 5 ft off the eastern shore's atlantic
coast(mostly far offshore edge of our zones). Farther south in
the atlantic, winds will between 15-20 kt with waves 3-4 ft. In
the chesepeake bay and rivers, winds Thursday afternoon will be
10-15 kt and waves will be around 1-2 ft.

Behind the cold front on Friday, high pressure will build back
into the area for the holiday weekend. Looks like winds and seas
will stay below SCA criteria through Monday.

Climate
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Equipment
As of 330 pm edt Wednesday...

kakq 88d radar out of service until further notice. Techs are awaiting
parts to make needed repair. Return to service possible late thu
or fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz mam
near term... Mam
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Cp
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi48 min S 9.9 G 11
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi48 min SSE 9.9 G 12
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi54 min SSE 9.7 G 12 68°F 70°F1023.9 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi48 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 71°F1 ft1022.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi48 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 71°F1023.7 hPa (-1.0)
NCDV2 39 mi48 min ESE 8 G 9.9
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi48 min SE 6 G 8 1025.8 hPa (+0.0)
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi48 min
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi48 min ESE 9.9 G 12 68°F 73°F1024.5 hPa (-0.3)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi48 min S 9.9 G 11 66°F 1025 hPa (-0.9)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi48 min SE 9.9 G 12 66°F 1025.4 hPa (-0.3)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi48 min SSW 8.9 G 11 1024.8 hPa (-0.6)
44072 48 mi48 min 66°F 71°F1 ft

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi53 minE 1010.00 miFair71°F49°F46%1024.4 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi53 minE 810.00 miFair70°F50°F50%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E8E8E7E5CalmW4S5E9E8SE9
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N6N9N5N6NW8NW6N7NW4NW8N6N6
2 days agoS5S5S3S3S4S7SW6SW7S5S6SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
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Wed -- 04:02 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:59 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:27 PM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:52 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.511.61.92.121.71.30.80.40.100.20.611.41.71.71.51.20.80.40.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:11 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:07 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:36 PM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:00 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.91.51.92.121.81.40.90.50.200.20.511.41.71.71.51.20.80.50.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.