Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:26PM Saturday July 22, 2017 10:35 PM EDT (02:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:09AMMoonset 6:47PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 732 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with scattered tstms this evening, then widespread showers with a chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 732 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Light winds are expected with high pressure to the south through the weekend. Scattered Thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230213
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1013 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
Very hot and humid conditions will continue over the region
through Sunday. A weakening cold front will gradually push
across the area late Sunday night through Monday and stall
across the carolinas through the middle of the upcoming week.

Temperatures will cool down to near normal levels Monday
through Thursday.

Near term through Sunday
Latest analysis indicates a weak sfc lee trough lingering over
the mid- atlantic region from nj down ssw into the piedmont of
the carolinas. Energetic wnw flow prevails aloft. The initial
batch of strong to severe thunderstorms has now pushed off the
coast of the va ERN shore, with additional development
occurring across central NRN va to the md ERN shore. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threat through the early
overnight hours, though steepening mid-level lapse rates could
portend to some strong updrafts and the potential for some hail
across the NRN tier of the area, and frequent lighting is
expected with strong updrafts. Pops should generally be 30-50%
for scattered coverage for the NRN half of the area and AOB 20%
for most other areas overnight. Still very warm and humid for
areas that have not been "cooled" by rain. Lows most areas 75
to 80 f, slightly "cooler" across the north, especially in areas
the do receive rain.

Continued hot and humid with additional heat headlines now
issued for about the southern 2 3 of the CWA (along S of wal to
ric to lunenburg co. Line) where heat indices of 105 to 109 f
expected. Could potentially reach to 110+ along for NE nc but do
anticipate highs a little cooler than today so have held off on
this for now. Sunday remains a bit of a conditional convective
threat. Numerous convective boundaries are likely to be in
place, which would serve as a focusing mechanism for afternoon
and evening convection. However, uncertainty exists regarding
the extent and degree of cloudiness from convective debris which
hangs around into Sunday, thereby serving to dampen
destabilization. Models are still split on extent of cloudiness
through the early afternoon and have therefore elected to keep
pop in chance range (40-50%) for now, highest over the NE cwa.

Should convective debris clear out in a timely way on Sunday,
it's easy to visualize a scenario in which more widespread
convection occurs, given better lift lapse rates courtesy of the
approaching upper trough and the strong heating destabilization
that would result from quicker clearing. Once again, damaging
winds again the primary threat with storms on Sunday.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
Cold front slated to pass through while weakening late sun
night through mon. Will maintain high chc pops all zones sun
night, and favor highest pops Mon shifting south across SE va &
ne nc with 20% pops for the n. Slightly less humid Monday over
the NW cwa. Not quite as hot, with highs Mon 90 to 95 f. Front
stalls in nc tue, with mainly diurnal tstms possible again over
the s, 15-20% n. Seasonable highs upper 80s to lower 90s.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
High pressure moves off the coast Wed with any support for pcpn
across southern half of fa closer to a stalled frontal boundary.

Highs in the mid-upr 80s. Lows in the upr 60s-lwr 70s.

This boundary begins to drift north thurs resulting in slght chc
pops across the region. Highs in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. Lows 70-75.

Next boundary approaches from the north, then stalls across the
region Fri and sat. Chc pops each day though pcpn may tend to
concentrate across the southern half of fa Sat depending on how far
south the boundary actually gets. Highs Fri in the upr 80s- lwr 90s.

Lows in the upr 60s-mid 70s. Highs Sat in the mid-upr 80s.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr conditions expected through most of the forecast period as
high pressure remains off the coast. Sct convection possible
across northern TAF sites after 22z as a series of convective
complexes ride SE along a stalled front well north of the fa.

First complex tracking across northern va md ATTM is progged to
continue SE across the lwr md eastern shore towards 00z. Given
decent agreement in high res data, added vcts to sby's forecast
for a few hours beginning at 22z. Otw, kept thunder out of the
other tafs as any storms that do develop are not expected until
after 00z. Convection may not make it to the sern TAF sites
until late tonight if at all. Expect LCL MVFR CIGS vsbys in any
storm with the potential for ifr vsbys in any one downpour.

Expect a repeat performance Sunday as the persistent pattern
continues early in the week.

Outlook: convection slowly shifts south into south central va
and nc for Monday.VFR should dominate through this period, with
periods of periods of sub-vfr possible in heavier showers tsra.

A weak cold front pushes into the area for the mid week period.

Marine
No headlines expected as a SW wind AOB 15 kt prevails into the early
week. There could be a few gusts to 20 kts Sun aftn, but
duration is not expected to be long enough to justify a sca
headline. Seas 2 feet nearshore to 4 ft out near 20 nm. Sct
tstms possible in the afternoon eve hours.

The next frontal boundary crosses the area tues with a wind shift
into the e-ne. At this point, winds are expected to remain below sca
levels (aob 15 kts). Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Weak onshore flow continues for the rest of the week as a frontal
boundary stalls across the area. This will also act as a trigger for
sct late day convection as well.

Climate
Heat wave is expected to continue through Sunday. The 2nd half
of july is climatologically the hottest few weeks of the year,
so we still may not set any daily records at our main climate
sites. For reference, record highs for today and Sunday are
listed below:
* date: sat(7 22) sun(7 23)
* ric: 103 1952 103 1952
* orf: 102 2011 103 2011
* sby: 104 1930 103 2011
* ecg: 104 1952 104 1952

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Sunday for ncz012>017-
030>032-102.

Va... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Sunday for vaz065>068-
078>090-092-093-095>100-512>516-518-520-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb ajz
short term... Lkb mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Ajb mpr
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi54 min SSE 6 G 8 75°F 86°F1009.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi60 min SE 14 G 15
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi46 min SSE 14 G 16 79°F 1008.9 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi66 min SSE 1 81°F 1010 hPa75°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi46 min E 12 G 16 78°F 1009.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi54 min SSE 13 G 17 77°F 84°F
NCDV2 39 mi54 min S 5.1 G 6 77°F 87°F1007.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi60 min NE 8.9 G 20 1012.2 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi46 min SSW 9.7 G 14
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi54 min Calm G 4.1 83°F 83°F1009.7 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi54 min NE 22 G 25 81°F 1010.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi54 min S 14 G 16 78°F 1009.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi54 min SE 9.9 G 12 79°F 87°F1010 hPa
44072 48 mi46 min S 5.8 G 7.8 85°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi41 minE 310.00 miFair77°F72°F88%1010.2 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi41 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F90%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4S3S5SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW6S6SW3S5CalmSE4SE7SE5E3SE3
2 days agoCalmCalmS3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW3W3W5CalmS3S4SW4SW7SW10SW5S4S4S4S4

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:16 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:44 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.321.510.40-0.2-0.10.30.91.51.81.91.71.40.90.4-0-0.2-0.10.30.91.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:22 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:16 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:49 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:17 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.32.321.610.50.1-0.1-00.30.91.51.81.91.81.40.90.4-0-0.2-0.10.30.91.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.