Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:03PM Monday September 24, 2018 3:18 AM EDT (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:11PMMoonset 5:16AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 136 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. A chance of rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 4 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 4 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A frontal boundary will stall south of the waters through Monday. The front will return northward as a warm front Tuesday. A cold front will then approach the waters from the ohio valley Wednesday, and may stall near or south of the waters Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240700
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
300 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

Synopsis
Strong high pressure builds over new england through tonight. A
warm front pushes north across the area Tuesday. Low pressure
approaches the mid atlantic coast from the southeast Tuesday
night, then pushes offshore Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 300 am edt Monday...

latest msas shows high pressure across ERN canada nosing down the
ern seaboard resulting in a cad wedge. The frontal bndry has now
pushed south of the local area as both orf ecg have gone with a
broken stratus deck and light wind. Plenty of moisture is keeping
the insitu-wedge in check with areas of light rain drizzle and
fog this morning. In addition, weak impulse along the coast is
keeping sct shwrs going along the ERN shore.

High res data showing a "status-quo" scenario through mid morning.

Pcpn is progged to expand in coverage and become more showery in
nature this afternoon as the wedge begins to erode somewhat across
the ERN half of the fa. This should lead to some partial Sun across
sern coastal sections. However, expect the piedmont to remain socked
in all day. Likely pops will be maintained across the north today
where the best lift will be. Chc pops south. Kept thunder out of
fcst based on little if any instab north of the bndry. Temps tricky
with highs from the upr 60s NW to the lwr 80s se.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
As of 300 am edt Monday...

the frontal boundary remains south of the fa tonight, then lifts
back north as a warm front Tuesday as the high moves farther east.

Plenty of low-level moisture in combination with the front should
result in widespread low clouds. Pops taper off south to north
tonight with lows ranging from the mid 60s NW to the low 70s se.

Clouds will be slow to lift Tuesday, with variably to partly cloudy
conditions by aftn as the warm front lifts north of the area. This
brings back the late summer heat and humidity. In addition, tropical
moisture approaches from the SE late due to a low offshore. This
will bring a chc of afternoon convection. Highs from the upr 70s
nw to the mid 80s se.

Models continue to show a tropical low approaching the nc coast late
tue aftrn, tracking nne along the outer banks Tuesday night, pushing
offshore into the vacapes Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.

Very humid Tuesday night into Wednesday with the tropical influence.

Lows Tuesday night range from the upper 60s NW to low mid 70s se.

Increased pops across the WRN zones Wed aftrn as the models are
showing a quicker increase in moisture along and ahead of the
front. Highs Wednesday in the mid upper 80s with dewpoints in
the low mid 70s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 400 pm edt Sunday...

unsettled conditions to persist through the first half of the
extended period with a stalled frontal boundary lingering across
southern portions of the region. A cold front slowly crosses the
region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage from northwest to southeast
Wednesday night. Both the GFS and ECMWF have this front lingering
across southeastern portions of the area during the day Thursday
into Friday allowing for the continued threat of showers and
thunderstorms. A secondary cold front makes its way through the area
on Friday with high pressure building back north of the area Friday
night into Saturday. There still remains some uncertainty with the
timing of this secondary front and a few showers may try to linger
across the far southeast Friday night into Saturday. Cooler and
drier conditions Saturday and Sunday with high pressure building
over the region. There should be a big spread in temperatures across
the region on Thursday with another wedge trying to set up. Highs
will range from the lower 70s NW to the low mid 80s se. Highs will
then generally range from the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday through
Sunday with dewpoints dropping off slightly late Friday into the
weekend. Lows generally upper 50s to low 60s inland and upper 60s to
low 70s at the coast.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
As of 130 am edt Monday...

wedge firmly in place with the frontal boundary as far SE as the
nrn outer banks. NE flow along with deep moisture is keeping ifr
conditions across most sites except orf ecg where CIGS vary from
MVFR toVFR the farther south one goes. In addition, areas of
light rain drizzle and fog results in reduced vsbys as well.

These conditions will continue through most of this forecast
period as yet another wave of low pressure tracks north of the
area keeping the ifr conditions in place. Exception will be at
orf ecg where MVFR toVFR CIGS will prevail. NE winds become
gusty (btwn 15-20 kts) along the ERN shore southern ches bay.

Outlook: st reduced vsbys cont into Tuesday morning, with
conditions improving Tuesday aftrn as the front gradually lifts
n through the region. The front remains N of the area Wednesday,
with another cold front approaching from the NW Thursday and
into the area Friday.

Marine
As of 250 am edt Monday...

frontal boundary remains INVOF nc coastal waters attm... It is
expected to drift S a bit today. Ene winds have thus far not
increased as much as expected N of that boundary. Most models
do indicate an increase to at least marginal low end SCA takes
place today... Lasts into this eve early tonight as sfc hi pres
remains INVOF new england. Waves seas are expected to build as
well. Winds slowly become SE (late) tonight into Tue W speeds
generally lower to AOB 15 kt. Prolonged onshore fetch will
likely result in seas AOA 5 ft into midweek.

Raised today's rip risk to high for atlantic beach on the va md
ern shore.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 250 am edt Monday...

onshore winds do increase across the entire region later today
as strong sfc hi pres remains centered INVOF new england. Tidal
anomalies will once again increase at bit for much of the area,
with possible shallow minor flooding late tonight through tue
(esp for counties in va md INVOF middle and upper ches bay).

Equipment
Kdox is offline due to an equipment issue. Parts are on order
and technicians hope to have radar online after parts are
received. However, no return to service time is available at
this time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for anz635-
636-638.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz630>632-
634.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr ajz
long term... Ajb
aviation... Mpr
marine... Alb tmg
tides coastal flooding... Alb
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi36 min 68°F 74°F1022.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi66 min ENE 8.9 G 11
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi28 min ENE 16 G 19 68°F 1021.7 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi48 min NNW 2.9 69°F 1023 hPa69°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi28 min E 14 G 18 73°F 1021.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi30 min 65°F 77°F1023.1 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi30 min 64°F 74°F1022.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi30 min 1021.7 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi36 min 69°F 79°F1021.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi30 min 71°F 1021.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi30 min 1023.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi30 min 66°F 72°F1022.9 hPa
44072 48 mi28 min NNW 14 G 16 72°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi43 minN 45.00 miLight Drizzle65°F64°F99%1023 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi23 minN 05.00 miOvercast65°F64°F100%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmN4NE6NE4CalmE6E4NE7NW5N5NE9N6NW4N4N3N4NW3CalmN3NW4CalmN4
1 day agoCalmS3S4S4S3W4W5N4NE6NE5N5N5E3NE3NE4CalmNE4NE4N4N3N4NE4N5N4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SE4SE4SE8SE6SE7SE5SE7S5CalmCalmCalmS4CalmS4SW3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.