Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:00PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 7:08 AM EDT (11:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:55AMMoonset 10:13PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 525 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers this morning. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 525 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will weaken overhead through Wednesday as hurricane maria drifts north to northeast off the north carolina coast. A cold front will pass through the area Thursday and a reinforcing cold front will pass through late Friday into early Saturday. High pressure will return for the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday night and gale force winds are possible Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed again Friday night into Saturday. Refer to the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260843
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
443 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
Maria will track northward off the north carolina coast while
gradually weakening today through Wednesday. Maria will then
push east northeast and out to sea Wednesday night and Thursday.

High pressure will build into the region later Thursday through
Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Early this morning, hurricane maria was located about 225 miles
se of hat moving north at 7 mph. Latest radar showed a few bands
of light showers well ahead of maria, rotating onshore acrs
portions of SE va and NE nc. Otherwise, NE winds were spreading
low level moisture and stratus (3-10 kft) into much of the cwa.

Maria will continue to push N during today, and perhaps
slightly W of due n, as an upper low drops sewd acrs fl.

Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result
in 20-40% pops along and E of i-95. QPF will be minimal for
most areas, with highest amts over extrm SE va and NE nc where
highest pops are fcst. Highs today in the upper 70s to lower
80s under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming breezy along the coast
with a NE wind increasing to 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-35
mph possible.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Maria reaches about 160mi ese of CAPE hatteras by 00z wed,
around 150 miles E of CAPE hatteras by 12z wed, and then
140-180 miles ene of CAPE hatteras by 00z thu, as some spread
remains in the guidance. NHC has maria weakening to a tropical
storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will result in
minimal rainfall acrs SE va NE nc (and coastal md to a lesser
degree), generally 0.50" or less, with the highest amts over
extrm SE va and NE nc. There is now a good possibility for
strong wind gusts south of CAPE charles on the coastal waters,
and along the immediate coast from orf va beach to the currituck
county beaches (including the currituck sound). Therefore, we
have upgraded tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning
for CAPE charles light to the va nc border (656). High seas and
minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will also occur
along the coast. Will maintain pops of 20-40% east of i-95 wed
(40-50% coastal NE nc Tue night wed), with slight chc pops into
the piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from around
norfolk va beach southward into coastal NE nc. The biggest
impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion
along near the coast. Highs on Wed will range fm the upper 70s
to lower 80s along the coast, to the mid 80s inland, after
morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

By 12z thu, maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles
ene of CAPE hatteras, then pushing well out to sea by late in
the day. Will carry lingering slight chc pops (~20%) along the
coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day. Highs on Thu will range fm the upper 70s
to lower 80s along the coast, to the lower to mid 80s inland.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted
upper trough swings across the great lakes and northeastern us
Friday and Saturday. This trough will serve to escort maria away
from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through
the region on Thursday night. This will allow drier and cooler air
to move back into the region. Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A
secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will
slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off
the coast on Saturday. But moisture will be limited with the front
and the best chance for any showers will be over the delmarva. By
Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across new
england and down the eastern seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This
will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the
low. To mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
Expect MVFR ifr CIGS for mainly sby, orf, phf, and ecg today
into tonight, due to increasing NE winds and low level moisture
in advance of maria. Expect MVFR ifr CIGS at ric mainly into
this aftn. Best chc for showers will be over ecg and orf.

Outlook: increasing moisture from maria will result in a
continued 20-40% chc for showers tonight thru wed. Locally
stronger wind speeds gusts are expected at orf ecg tonight and
wed. A cold front approaches fm the NW thu, and pushes maria
farther out to sea Thu night into fri.

Marine
Given the track of maria and the broadening wind field... Have
expected tropical storm warning to CAPE charles va. Given that
the track stays far enough offshore... It still does not look
like sustained TS winds will be in the bay... But there could be
a few gusts to near 35 kt for a period tonight into wed. As
such... Will maintain the SCA for this area, as well as areas
north of CAPE charles. Winds seas will start to improve
Wednesday night as maria rapidly moves east. Added scas for
rivers and northern 2 zones over the bay.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of hurricane maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures currently 0.5 to 1 ft today as northeast to
east winds begin to increase. Expect the departure to slowly
steadily increase as maria moves N through wed. Expect
departures of 2 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday across the southern bay
and areas south of CAPE henry along the ocean... W 1-1.5 ft
departures northern bay into the northern coastal waters. These
values are similar to what we saw last week in jose. However...

the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft less this week than last
week in jose. This may keep any coastal flooding confined to
minor during the time of high tide (through wed).

As with jose... The main concern may end up being high surf and
potential coastal erosion. Will issue a high surf advisory for
the entire coastal waters starting tomorrow as the swell
associated with maria moves into the region. Am still thinking
that nearshore waves of 8-11 ft are possible starting Tuesday
and continuing into Wednesday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for mdz025.

Nc... Tropical storm warning for ncz017-102.

Va... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for vaz098>100.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz630>632-
634>638-650-652-654.

Tropical storm warning for anz633-656-658.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Tmg
short term... Jdm tmg
long term... Jdm jef
aviation... Tmg
marine... Alb
tides coastal flooding... Alb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi50 min NE 8.9 G 13 71°F 78°F1014.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi50 min ENE 6 G 8
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi38 min ENE 12 G 16 71°F 1014 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi98 min NNE 2.9 72°F 1014 hPa69°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi38 min ENE 16 G 18 72°F 1014.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi50 min NE 7 G 8 69°F 77°F1014.7 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi50 min NE 1.9 G 6 69°F 79°F1014.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi50 min NNE 17 G 19 1013.9 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi38 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi50 min NNE 12 G 18 72°F 77°F1013 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi50 min NE 20 G 23 72°F 1013.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi50 min ENE 12 G 15 69°F 1015.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi50 min NE 11 G 14 69°F 76°F1014.8 hPa
44072 48 mi38 min NE 18 G 21 73°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi73 minN 310.00 miOvercast71°F71°F100%1014.9 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi72 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast72°F68°F88%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE5NE4NE5NE7NE7E13
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1 day agoCalmCalmN3N4N3NE6E9NE8E7NE5E7NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3NW4NW3N5N3N5NE5N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:34 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:03 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:00 PM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.81.21.61.81.81.71.41.10.80.60.50.60.91.31.722.121.81.51.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:14 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.81.11.51.71.71.61.41.10.80.60.40.50.81.11.51.821.91.71.51.10.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.