Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:25PM Monday January 21, 2019 1:30 PM EST (18:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:10PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1238 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.gale warning in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain through the day.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1238 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Arctic high pressure will slowly build over the region into Tuesday, then shift off the mid atlantic coast late Tuesday. Low pressure crossing the central u.s. Will approach the region Wednesday, and along with its associated cold front will cross the waters on Thursday. A secondary cold front will pass over the waters Friday, as high pressure builds over the waters through the first half of the weekend. Small craft advisories may be required Tuesday night, while looking likely Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, VA
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location: 37.83, -78.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211805
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
105 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will build into the area today, then drift
overhead tonight through early Tuesday. This high pushes offshore
Tuesday night, allowing a milder air mass to overspread the
area by midweek. The next storm system impacts the area
Wednesday night through Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1250 pm est Monday...

current analysis indicates ~1039 mb sfc high pressure centered
over NW ohio with strong low pressure moving off to atlantic
canada. While the wind chill advisory has been allowed to
expire, temperatures remain well below avg this aftn with highs
only reaching into the lower 20s over the NE portions of the
cwa, to the upper 20s in southern va NE nc.

Opted against a wind advisory for the eastern shore where gusts
of 35-40 mph will persist through the next few hrs, with wind
gusts then dropping off to 30-35 mph. Elsewhere, winds will gust
to 25-30 mph and then diminish to 20-25 mph by late aftn. Skies
are sunny (and have become partly-mostly sunny over the portions
of the va eastern shore where it was mostly cloudy earlier).

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
As of 625 am est Monday...

the arctic high builds over the area tonight into Tuesday
morning when most numerical guidance depicts it as a 1040mb high
centered over the mid-atlantic, before it slides offshore in the
aftn. Tonight will likely be the coldest night with lows
ranging from the single digits over the NW piedmont, to the
low mid teens from central s-central va to the md ERN shore, and
upper teens for far SE va NE nc under a clear sky. Highs
Tuesday range from the mid 30s N to near 40f S under a sunny sky
with perhaps an increase in thin high clouds late.

The high remains near the coast into Tuesday evening, so
temperatures should cool quickly under a mainly clear sky. Lows
in the mid 20s to low 30s may be achieved in the evening,
before temperatures become steady or slowly rise overnight with
increasing clouds. A warm front will lift through the area
Wednesday. Becoming mostly cloudy, but milder with highs ranging
from the low 50s NW to the low 60s se. There is a 20-40% chc of
light rain from the piedmont and south-central va northeast to
the lwr md ERN shore. Depending on how quickly any light rain
arrives early Wed morning, there is a small window of
opportunity that temps may still be at or just below freezing
across the piedmont. This is something that bears watching. Best
opportunity for any light freezing rain may be just west & sw
of our fa.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 355 pm est Sunday...

a frontal boundary is expected to approach the region Wednesday
night before slowing down stalling across the region during the
day on Thursday. A wave of low pressure develops across the
southeast and will ride along this frontal boundary, leading to
high pops late Wednesday through Thursday. Rainfall could be
heavy at times at Thursday with model guidance showing an inch
or more of QPF for the region with this system. This will be
primarily a rain event for our region with mild temperatures,
but it is possible a few snow flakes mix in (especially across
our north and west) as the system departs late Thursday and
cooler air works into the region. Dry weather and falling
temperatures for the remainder of Thursday night as northwest
flow sets up across the region. Another front, this one arctic
in nature, approaches and crosses the region during the day on
Friday. The GFS hints at the potential of some light snow
showers with this front, especially across our north, but other
models remain less robust with this system. For now, just
limited pops to a slight chance across the northern half of the
region. Cold high pressure builds in behind the front Friday
night and Saturday which will allow for another period of well
below normal temperatures for the first half of the weekend.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 1250 pm est Monday...

vfr conditions will persist across area terminals through the
taf period. High pressure will gradually build into the area
later this aftn through tonight, with the gradient remaining
strongest over the eastern shore. A NW wind should generally be
15 kt, with gusts of 25 kt under a sunny sky inland, and a
little higher, especially at ksby through late aftn where gusts
of 30-35 kt will continue. High pressure builds over the region
tonight and pass across the area Tuesday,allowing the winds to
diminish to 5-10 kt tonight (remaining a little higher near the
coast). A NE wind 5-10 kt will prevail on Tue near the coast,
becoming light variable or shifting to the SE inland later in
the day. Skies remain mostly sunny with just some increasing high
clouds.

Outlook: high pressure moves offshore Wednesday, followed by
another low pressure system that affects the area Wednesday
night into Thursday. This system will likely bring more rain and
flight restrictions, especially from 06-18z thu. High pressure
briefly returns Thursday night, before another cold front sfc
trough crosses the area on Friday (conditions look to remainVFR
thu night and fri). A stronger system will be developing west of
the local area on Sat but is not expected to impact the region
until Sun or mon.

Marine
As of 100 pm est Monday...

winds diminishing across the ches bay so have dropped the gales
and replaced with strong SCA there (in addition to the sca's
across the rivers and currituck sound). Gusts continue to
exceed 35 kts across coastal waters (highest over the north) so
will continue the gale headlines there. Seas 5-8 ft with 3-5 ft
waves will slowly subside as well by tonight. Given current sfc
temps and wind speeds, freezing spray advisory remains in place
only across the northern coastal waters (though light freezing
spray will continue elsewhere across all waters except in nc
through this evening).

Winds seas continue to improve tonight into tues as high pressure
builds into the region, but SCA winds and seas AOA will likely
continue through 12z Tue over the bay ocean. High pressure becomes
centered over the waters by Tue aftn, slowly shifting the winds to
the south Tue night and Wed at speeds AOB 15 kts. Another area of
low pressure is progged to approach the waters Wed night. At this
time, it looks like winds increase out of the S and may reach sca
thresholds late wed-thu (coupled W increasing waves seas). Winds
turn to the NW in the wake of the low Thu night, but will remain
around or just below SCA thresholds.

Equipment
As of 340 am est Monday...

the kakq radar will remain down until further notice due to a
mechanical failure.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz633-635-
636-638.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz637.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Tuesday for anz630>632-634.

Freezing spray advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
anz630>632-634-654-656.

Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz650-652-654-
656-658.

Freezing spray advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
anz650-652.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Ajb
aviation... Lkb
marine... Eri mpr
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi61 min WNW 7 23°F 1028 hPa-6°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 98 mi37 min NNW 29 G 32

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA22 mi38 minNW 1010.00 miFair24°F-8°F24%1028.5 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA22 mi36 minNW 12 G 1710.00 miFair23°F-9°F23%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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NW6NW8NW3Calm4NW10NW103E4NW10
1 day ago--NE6N5NE8N7N4NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE8W3CalmCalmS4SW4S3W7NW12
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2 days agoCalmSE3CalmCalmN4N3NE6E4CalmCalmCalmNE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5SE3NE5NE6NE6NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 04:15 AM EST     3.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:26 AM EST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.51.72.63.132.41.710.3-0.2-0.5-0.40.41.72.93.53.63.12.41.70.90.3-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia
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Lower Rocketts
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 04:12 AM EST     3.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:20 AM EST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.61.82.73.12.92.41.60.90.3-0.2-0.5-0.40.41.833.53.53.12.41.60.90.3-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.