Monday, December18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 4:58PM Monday December 18, 2017 4:10 AM EST (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:27AMMoonset 5:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 331 Am Est Mon Dec 18 2017
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
ANZ500 331 Am Est Mon Dec 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will control the weather pattern through Tuesday before a cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. High pressure will build to the north Wednesday into Thursday as a front stalls to the south. A small craft advisory may be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday for portions of the waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, VA
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location: 37.83, -78.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180034
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
734 pm est Sun dec 17 2017

Synopsis
The mid atlantic region will reside in between weak low
pressure along the gulf coast and strong low pressure over
canada tonight through Tuesday as high pressure becomes centered
off the southeast coast. A cold front pushes through the region
Tuesday night then stalls over the carolinas on Wednesday. Low
pressure moves along the front Wednesday and pushes off the
southeast coast Wednesday night.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Updated the forecast earlier this evening adding just a slight
chance for some light sprinkles rain which will end form west
to east through 10 pm as the shortwave moves off the coast. Some
areas of light rain were falling out of a 6 to 8 kft cloud
deck. Also slowed the falling of temperatures this evening
though overnight lows still look on track.

A weakening shortwave trough will continue to track ene this
evening and tonight while largely shearing apart. This system
has managed to pull some mid level SRN stream moisture newd
resulting in mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with S few
areas of light rain. Drier air arrives from the wsw after 06z
and rapid clearing is expected from SW to NE late tonight.

Temperatures this aftn are primarily in the mid 40s to around
50f, and should only gradually drop through the 40s this evening
with cloud cover. There should be a few hours for radiational
cooling once the sky clears (especially inland), so have trended
lows on the cool- side or slightly below guidance. Forecast
lows range from the low mid 30s well inland to the upper
30s around 40f at the coast.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Wednesday
High pressure remains offshore Monday as the flow aloft remains
zonal. Mostly sunny Monday with only a few high clouds
streaming through strong westerly flow aloft. Mild with highs in
the mid upper 50s N to the low 60s s. High pressure continues
to prevail in vicinity of the southeast coast Monday night and
Tuesday. Partly cloudy to mostly clear sunny with above normal
temperatures. Forecast lows Monday night range from the upper
30s N to mid 40s se. A wsw low level flow will make for quite
warm conditions on Tuesday with highs well into the 60s, and
potentially be close to 70f over SRN half of the area if enough
mixing occurs.

Progressive split zonal flow will continue over the central and
ern CONUS Tuesday night and Wednesday. A NRN stream wave passes
across new england Tuesday night, which will push a cold front
through the mid-atlantic. Meanwhile, a SRN stream wave will
track across the tennessee valley Tuesday night and across the
carolinas Wednesday. 17 12z gfs ECMWF cmc generally keep the
deeper moisture along and S of the va nc border with the NAM a
nrn outlier. Forecast pops for Wednesday are 30-50% for ne
nc 20-30% for SRN va, with a slight chc up to roughly a fvx-ric-
mfv line. Lows Tuesday night are generally in the low mid 40s
(upper 30s far ne) and highs Wednesday range from the upper 40s
ne to the low mid 50s central and s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Drier air pushes in from the NW late Wednesday night into
Thursday as high pressure builds N of the region. Lows Wednesday
night range from the upper 20s around 30f N to the mid upper
30s se, followed by highs Thursday in the mid 40s N to low 50s
se. The large scale trend by Friday Saturday is for a trough
over the great lakes and a ridge off the southeast coast. Only a
gradually warming trend is expected Friday with limited mixing
and forecast highs range from the low 50 NW to low 60s SE after
morning lows in the 30s. The 12z model consensus keeps a cold
front well NW of the area Saturday with high pressure off the
southeast coast and southerly flow over the region. Forecast
highs are in the upper 50s to mid 60s at this time, but there is
the potential for higher values if enough Sun and mixing occur.

For the christmas eve christmas day timeframe there remains
run-to-run differences with respect to the location of the cold
front. Temperatures could be well above normal if the front
remains to the nw, while near to slightly above normal
temperatures along with a chc of rain would be expected if the
front settles over the region. Pops are trended toward or
slightly above climo for this time period.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions are expected for all sites through the 00z taf
period. Mid-level clouds with bases generally between 6000 to 9000
feet have moved into the region this evening. A few sprinkles light
rain showers will be possible through the evening, but restrictions
are not expected. Skies clear later tonight and Monday morning with
mainly sunny skies anticipated for Monday afternoon.

Outlook: high pressure remains near the southeast coast Monday night
through Tuesday withVFR conditions prevailing along with occasional
high clouds. Low pressure passes south of the region Wednesday, with
a 20-30% chance of light rain across southern va and a 30-50% chance
of light rain over northeast nc. High pressure builds north of the
region Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure slides offshore
by Friday.

Marine
No headlines in the short term tonight thru tue. Late this aftn,
high pressure was cntrd just off the mid atlc coast, with a
frontal bndry laying west to east acrs the oh valley into pa.

That front will lift nne into thru new england tonight thru tue,
as high pressure again will build in fm the west. Strong low
pressure over canada will then drag a cold front through the
waters Tue night Wed morning, with low pressure passing just
south of the area Wed into Wed night. High pressure will build
in fm the north late Wed night and thu, then pushes into the
atlc late Thu night and fri.

Climate
Have gone with missing data for ric temperatures Sat dec 16th
as ASOS was unrepresentative (being too warm by 5-10 degrees).

Observers at airport will be augmenting data as necessary today.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz jao
short term... Ajz lkb
long term... Ajz
aviation... Ajb
marine... Tmg
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi40 min Calm 42°F 1021 hPa37°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 92 mi30 min SW 7.8 G 12
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 98 mi40 min SW 1 G 1.9

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA22 mi35 minSW 310.00 miFair32°F30°F94%1021 hPa
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA22 mi17 minSW 410.00 miFair39°F33°F79%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmS4S3SW5CalmCalmS3S4SW4CalmSW4
1 day agoSE3S3S4S5SW7S11S12S12SW10
G15
SW8S11S10S7S8S11S8S7SW7S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE5N3N4N4CalmCalmCalmN4CalmW3S3S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S3S4SW5SW5S5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:31 AM EST     New Moon
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:23 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM EST     3.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.51.52.32.82.82.41.81.10.50.1-0.1-0.10.61.72.63.13.22.92.31.610.50.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia
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Lower Rocketts
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:31 AM EST     New Moon
Mon -- 04:28 AM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:17 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:37 PM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.61.62.32.82.82.41.71.10.50.1-0.100.81.82.73.13.22.82.31.610.50.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.