Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tangier, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:10PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 1:21 PM EST (18:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:35AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1230 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
This afternoon..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of snow early in the evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft... Subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 1230 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure tracks northeast along the coast as a cold front settles over the waters this afternoon and tonight. A second surge of arctic air pushes across the area tonight into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tangier, VA
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location: 37.84, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 171753
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1253 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
A strong cold front has pushed just off the coast late this
morning. Weak low pressure will track northeast just off the mid
atlantic coast this afternoon and tonight. A second surge of
arctic air pushes across the area tonight into Thursday before
temperatures moderate into next weekend and drier conditions
return.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Late this morning, cold frontal boundary has moved just
offshore, with latest radar indicating the leading edge of snow
extending fm the va NRN neck SW to near akq, then contined sw
into cntrl nc. So far, we have received snow reports ranging fm
near 1 inch over NRN portions of the area to near 4 inches over
scntrl va counties. The latest hrrr rap models indicate this
area of snow will gradually shift to the ese this aftn into this
evening, as the upper level shortwv energy vorticity advection
and associated vertical motion, lifts fm ERN ga and sc northeast
twd the mid atlc coast. It still looks like higher snow amts
will occur over scntrl va into interior NE nc and SE va. Believe
portions of coastal NE nc will have to be monitored closely this
evening into tonight for possible higher amts, as more energy
and lift gets transferred into this area. Otherwise, do not plan
any adjustments on advisory or warning ending times, but
depending on trends, may have to extend warning ending times in
the scntrl va zns. Temps will be falling into the mid 20s to
lower 30s later this aftn into early this evening.

Previous discussion:
17 00z suite once again have trended slightly slower and upward
with QPF as the system becomes closed placing a narrow zone
from central nc to south central va into optimal placement for
deformation and f-gen banding within a deep upper level
diffluent zone, with negative Sat epv values suggesting some
convective processes and strong uvv. Model consensus supports
qpf of 0.35-0.5" across the piedmont and s-central va and
northampton nc, bordered by ~0.1 to 0.2" from central va to E va
and NE nc, with 0.1" or less over the lower eastern shore.

Expect some variability in slrs, but generally ratios of 12-15:1
are expected during the highest pops, which supports 5-7" of
snow across the SW piedmont in the aforementioned ideal
location, bordered by 3-5" from the fvx area to s-central va and
northampton nc, with 1-3" for the i-95 corridor of central va
sewd to hampton roads. Coastal NE nc will need to be monitored
for this evening as deepening low pressure off the coast could
result in f-gen banding and the potential for warning criteria
for coastal NE nc. The winter storm warning has been expanded
for the SW piedmont and s-central va. Have opted to maintain a
high-end advisory for hampton roads, with the remaining
advisories remaining as is.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
The sky will clear quickly tonight as the well-advertised quick
shot of arctic air surges into the region. Shallow mixing is
expected to persist overnight, which should inhibit temperatures
from plummeting too far. Still cold nonetheless with lows in
the teens inland to the upper teens low 20s for coastal SE va ne
nc. Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly Thursday with 850mb
temperatures of -2 to -4c at 12z warming to +4-6c by 21z. A cold
start to the day, limited mixing, and mid-level WAA should
result in rather stable lapse rates and surface high
temperatures Thursday should only reach the mid 30s to low 40s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Pattern change looks to occur during the medium range period with a
significant warmup expected through the upcoming weekend early next
week. It will still be on the cold side early Fri morning with sfc
high pressure centered across the deep south, and one last upper
trough moving ese to the new england coast. Latest gfs ECMWF cmc
depict the upper trough moving well off the new england coast fri
with a broad upper level ridge building over the eastern CONUS fri
aftn through the weekend. Expect continued dry conditions with
warming temperatures, highs in the upper 40s lower 50s fri, rising
well into the 50s (possibly near 60f) sat, and into the upper 50s to
lower 60s for sun. Lows Fri night Sat am in the mid 20s to mid 30s,
and Sat night Sun am in the 30s to around 40f. Minor timing
differences arise by Mon between the models, but the overall trend
is for a slower arrival of the cold front and with the upper pattern
amplifying quite a bit this makes sense. Expect increasing clouds
ahead of the next front Sun night but have genly slowed down the
main chance for for showers until Mon aftn Mon night. Mild with lows
in the 40s Sun night Mon am and highs Mon mainly in the 60s (could
even be near 70f in the SE if more Sun develops and the precip is
slower to arrive). High chc pops for now 40-50% all zones Mon night.

The ECMWF is slower by this time than the GFS cmc so will linger
pops through 12z. Drying out becoming partly-mostly sunny Tue with
highs mainly in the 50s.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Slow moving cold front is pushing through the region accompanied
by a broad area of light to moderate snow. Widespread MVFR ifr
conditions perists as the area of precipitation moves eastward.

Sby may experience a brief period of light snow but MVFR ifr
clouds will prevail through the afternoon and early evening. The
snow has not reached orf and ecg at 18z and is expected to start
anytime now at phf. Warmer temps will likely see precip start as
light ra at ecg later this afternoon before turning into snow.

Winds will generally be n-ne with gusts 15-25 kt through the
early evening.

Outlook:clearing tonight with a breezy N wind near the coast.

PredominateVFR after midnight then likely Thursday through
Sunday as the trough departs well to the NE and a ridge builds
across the region.

Marine
Marine dense fog advisory has been cancelled. Any patchy fog will
continue to dissipate through the morning.

A surface cold front crosses the coast this morning with strong caa
lagging behind until the upper trough arrives later this evening
into Thursday. Nnw winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots this
afternoon evening with gusts to around 30 knots possible later this
evening and tonight. Scas have been into Thursday evening for the
coastal waters where elevated seas and gusts to 25 knots may linger.

Scas for the bay, lower james, and currituck sound remain in effect
from this morning into Thursday morning. High pressure settles over
the area for the end of the week allowing for diminishing winds and
sub-sca conditions through the weekend.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for ncz013-
014-030.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm est this evening for ncz012.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for
ncz015>017-031-032-102.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
vaz048-061-062-069-509-510.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for vaz064-
075>078-081>086-089-090-093-096-511>525.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm est this evening for vaz060-
065>068-079-080-087-088-092.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for vaz095-
097-098-100.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Thursday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Thursday for anz630>633-
638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Thursday for anz634.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Ajz tmg
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Lkb
aviation... Ajb jef
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 15 mi41 min NE 14 G 18 28°F 1026.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi51 min N 11 G 15 28°F 33°F1027.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 19 mi41 min N 16 G 19 28°F 1028.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi51 min NNW 23 G 28 1026.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 26 mi51 min NNE 12 G 13
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 28 mi51 min NW 13 G 17 28°F 32°F1027 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 33 mi51 min NNW 5.1 G 8 32°F 36°F1025.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi51 min NNW 12 G 16 27°F 34°F1026.9 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 39 mi51 min NNW 6 28°F 1028 hPa24°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi51 min N 17 G 21 26°F 1027.8 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 41 mi51 min N 18 G 20 30°F 1026.5 hPa
44072 44 mi41 min NNE 16 G 19 31°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 45 mi51 min N 12 G 14 30°F 35°F1026.2 hPa
44089 47 mi51 min 37°F4 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 48 mi51 min N 17 G 20 35°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD24 mi28 minNW 57.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F16°F60%1026.5 hPa

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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW33CalmNW4NW5NW6NW7NW8NW866NW5
1 day agoNW6NE7NW44N4N3NW3CalmN3NW3CalmNW3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3
2 days agoN75NE86NE5N4NE5N6NE3NE4N4NE4NE34N8N6N10
G17
NE4N6N8N763N5

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:02 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:17 PM EST     1.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:55 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:47 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.80.60.40.2-0-0.1-00.20.40.70.91.110.90.70.40.1-0-000.20.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:11 AM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:32 PM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:55 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:14 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
110.80.60.30.1-0.1-00.10.50.81.11.31.31.20.90.60.30.1-000.20.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.