Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Heathsville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:48PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:21 PM EST (01:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:42AMMoonset 5:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 641 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 5 ft this late evening and overnight. Scattered showers after midnight. Numerous showers late.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 5 ft in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
ANZ600 641 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides farther out to sea this evening. A very strong and fast moving cold front crosses the waters Sunday morning. High pressure returns for early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Heathsville CDP, VA
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location: 37.84, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 190011
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
711 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold front moves across the area late tonight then pushes
off the coast Sunday morning. High pressure builds into the area
Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. The next cold front crosses the
area early Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Latest msas has a warm front located ivof the mason-dixon line. The
main low lifts across the gt lakes and into southern canada late
tonight with the trailing cold front not progged into the area until
after midnight. Latest data supports a dry evening across the fa
with pcpn not moving east of mts until around 04z. Expect rising
dewpoint temps as the low level s-sw flow quickly increases pw's
into the 1"-1.25" range. Thus, temps not falling much this evening
with readings between 55-60.

Latest data continues to support a quick-moving band of showers
along and ahead of the cold front just after midnight out in the
piedmont, reaching the coast by Sunday morning. The increasing pw,
along with a narrow axis of low-level convergence forcing, will lead
to a broken line of showers through the overnight period. Thus have
maintained likely to categorical pops, highest across the north. No
cape to speak of, so kept thunder out of the grids.

Breezy to windy conditions continue through the night. H92-850 winds
increase to 40-50 kt as gradient tightens just ahead of the front.

Expect strongest winds to be within a few hours of frontal passage
as subsidence behind the departing boundary mixes down some of that
wind. Mild most of the night east cooling off late across the west.

Lows upr 40s west to mid-upr 50s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
Cold front and any lingering shwr activity along the coast arnd 12z
quickly moves offshore by 15z. Tsctns show rather quick drying of
the column so expect skies to become mstly sunny. Blustery with
gusty w-nw winds and only a slow rise in temps despite the sun.

Winds diminish towards sunset. Highs in the mid 50s-lwr 60s.

Sfc high settles over the sern states Sun night and Mon then drifts
off the coast tues. Passage of an upr level system will usher in one
last surge of CAA Sun night. Otw, dry with a slow warming trend.

Lows Sun night in the upr 20s NW to mid 30s se. Highs Mon in the upr
40s-lwr 50s. Lows Mon night in the 30s to near 40 se. Highs Tue in
the upr 50s to lwr 60s.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Model differences make for a challenging mid week and holiday fcst.

The next cold front progged to cross the area tues nite. Challenge
comes from just how much moisture gets entrained ahead of the front
from a trof off the carolina coast and weak low progged to move ne
along it? GFS much more aggressive with the moisture than the ecmwf.

For now, elected to keep measurable rainfall east of i95 Tue nite
and Wed with slght chc pops across the east thurs. Lows Tue nite in
the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Wed 55-60. Lows Wed nite in the 30s to
lwr 40s se. Cool thurs with highs mid 40s-lwr 50s.

Dry and cool Fri and Sat as high pressure builds into the area.

Highs Fri 50-55. Lows mid 30s-lwr 40s. Highs Sat 55-60.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr conditions to start the TAF period with only mid high level
clouds overspreading the region. A cold front crosses the region
overnight, impacting the TAF sites mainly after 06z, bringing some
lower ceilings and a chance for showers. Am expecting ceilings to
primarily remainVFR with the passage of the front, but a few
pockets of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, the main
concerns of the forecast will be the potential for gusty winds and
wind shear tonight. Models continue to show 35 to 50 knots at 2000
feet, thus continued the mention of wind shear ahead of the cold
front in the forecast. The front exits the region by or shortly
after sunrise on Sunday with winds becoming w-nw post frontal.VFR
conditions are expected through the day on Sunday, but winds will
remain gusty out of the W NW with gusts as high as 30 to 35 knots.

Outlook: high pressure builds over the region later Sunday through
Monday and then tracks off the southeast coast Tuesday.VFR
conditions are expected during this time frame.

Marine
Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was cntrd off the mid atlc
coast, while sfc low pressure was cntrd over extrm WRN oh. A
cold front extended SW fm the low thru SRN in and down into the
lower ms valley. Ssw winds were 10-20 kt with gusts into the
upper 20s (kt) late this aftn over the waters. The pressure
gradient between the high offshore and the approaching cold
front will tighten this evening into early Sun morning,
resulting in SW winds increasing to 20-30 kt with gusts ranging
from 25-40 kt. The cold front will cross the waters generally
between 11z-14z Sun morning, with winds then shifting to the nw
behind the front. On the late this aftn fcst, have decided to go
ahead and hoist the gale warning (one headline) for the entire
coastal waters, due to gale conditions (gusts) expected within
the next 12 hrs. Also, for now, have kept sca's in effect for
all the other waters, even though there could be isolated gusts
to 35 kt at the mouth of the ches bay or the currituck snd.

Decent cold air advection, a persistent tight pressure gradient,
and rapid pressure rises (5-9mb) behind the front will all
contribute to a continuation of strong NW winds 20-30 kt with
gusts of 25-40 kt through sun. Breezy to windy conditions will
prevail over much of the area on sun, and generally uniform
with slightly stronger winds occurring over the warmer waters.

Winds should remain generally unchanged Sun night with NW winds
averaging 15-25 kt with gusts averaging 30 kt. Will still have
to monitor for possible gale gusts at the mouth of the ches bay
or the currituck snd during sun. A secondary surge in NW winds
may be possible Sun night, as the coldest part of the airmass
swings across the area. However, relaxing pressure gradient with
high pressure building over the gulf coast states into the tn
valley will likely prevent a very strong surge from happening.

High pressure continues to build over the southeast states into
the SRN mid atlc region Mon mon night, then sliding out to sea
on tue. Calmer sub-sca conditions anticipated Mon aftn into wed.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Monday for anz633-635>638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Monday for anz630>632-634.

Gale warning until 4 am est Monday for anz650-652-654.

Gale warning until 3 pm est Sunday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Ajz mpr mam
short term... Mpr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Ajb
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 35 mi51 min S 1.9 63°F 1005 hPa51°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi28 minS 15 G 2210.00 miFair62°F51°F67%1001.9 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3--------------S7S9S11S11
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1 day agoNW7
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W4E3CalmE3
2 days agoCalmW3CalmCalmW3W4W4W5W6W6W7SW8W6SW7W6W6W7W8W9W7W44NW6
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Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:00 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:06 PM EST     1.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:46 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.10.90.60.30.100.10.40.71.11.41.51.41.20.90.60.30.10.10.20.50.81.1

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:04 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:28 AM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:50 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:44 PM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.90.60.30.100.10.30.60.91.21.31.31.20.90.60.30.100.10.40.60.91.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.