Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Heathsville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:13PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:34 PM EST (17:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:02PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 944 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.gale warning in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
.freezing spray advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming sw late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Light freezing spray in the morning.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..S winds 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 944 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Dry and windy conditions continue today as arctic high pressure builds into the area. The high moves off the coast Tuesday. Another area of low pressure approaches the region Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Heathsville CDP, VA
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location: 37.84, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211412
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
912 am est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will build into the area today, then drift
overhead tonight through early Tuesday. This high pushes offshore
Tuesday night, allowing a milder air mass to overspread the
area by midweek. The next storm system impacts the area by
Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 850 am est Monday...

current analysis indicates ~1038 mb sfc high pressure centered
over lower mi and in with strong low pressure moving off to
atlantic canada. Temperatures remain in the mid upper teens over
much of the northern and central portions of the cwa, with lower
20s over the south. Extended the wind chill advisory through 11
am for sections of the CWA mainly N of i-64 from fluvanna louisa
east through the northern neck and eastern shore where obs are
still indicating wind chills from zero to -5 f.

12z raobs have 850 mb temperatures -24 c at kiad, -20 c at
kwal, and -16c at krnk. 12z 21 nam12 and 06z GFS have these
temperatures modeled fairly well and show these readings rising
only a few degrees by late aftn, with the coldest values
shifting to the NE sections of the cwa. The arctic high will
continue to build in from the NW with breezy conditions most
areas (and downright windy over the eastern shore). Opted
against a wind advisory for the eastern shore where some gusts
to around 40 mph will persist through midday, with wind gusts
then dropping off to 30-35 mph. Elsewhere, winds will gust to
25-35 mph through early aftn and then diminish to 20-25 mph by
late aftn. Skies will be sunny except for morning clouds
downwind of the bay over the eastern shore (especially accomack
co.) aftn highs will range from the lower 20s md eastern shore
to the upper 20s southern va and and NE nc. Wind chills this
aftn will likely only rise to 5-10 f NE and to about 15 f sw.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
As of 625 am est Monday...

the arctic high builds over the area tonight into Tuesday
morning when most numerical guidance depicts it as a 1040mb high
centered over the mid-atlantic, before it slides offshore in the
aftn. Tonight will likely be the coldest night with lows
ranging from the single digits over the NW piedmont, to the
low mid teens from central s-central va to the md ERN shore, and
upper teens for far SE va NE nc under a clear sky. Highs
Tuesday range from the mid 30s N to near 40f S under a sunny sky
with perhaps an increase in thin high clouds late.

The high remains near the coast into Tuesday evening, so
temperatures should cool quickly under a mainly clear sky. Lows
in the mid 20s to low 30s may be achieved in the evening,
before temperatures become steady or slowly rise overnight with
increasing clouds. A warm front will lift through the area
Wednesday. Becoming mostly cloudy, but milder with highs ranging
from the low 50s NW to the low 60s se. There is a 20-40% chc of
light rain from the piedmont and south-central va northeast to
the lwr md ERN shore. Depending on how quickly any light rain
arrives early Wed morning, there is a small window of
opportunity that temps may still be at or just below freezing
across the piedmont. This is something that bears watching. Best
opportunity for any light freezing rain may be just west & sw
of our fa.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 355 pm est Sunday...

a frontal boundary is expected to approach the region Wednesday
night before slowing down stalling across the region during the
day on Thursday. A wave of low pressure develops across the
southeast and will ride along this frontal boundary, leading to
high pops late Wednesday through Thursday. Rainfall could be
heavy at times at Thursday with model guidance showing an inch
or more of QPF for the region with this system. This will be
primarily a rain event for our region with mild temperatures,
but it is possible a few snow flakes mix in (especially across
our north and west) as the system departs late Thursday and
cooler air works into the region. Dry weather and falling
temperatures for the remainder of Thursday night as northwest
flow sets up across the region. Another front, this one arctic
in nature, approaches and crosses the region during the day on
Friday. The GFS hints at the potential of some light snow
showers with this front, especially across our north, but other
models remain less robust with this system. For now, just
limited pops to a slight chance across the northern half of the
region. Cold high pressure builds in behind the front Friday
night and Saturday which will allow for another period of well
below normal temperatures for the first half of the weekend.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
As of 625 am est Monday...

vfr conditions will persist across area terminals through the
taf period. High pressure will gradually build into the area
today, with the gradient remaining strong near the coast. A nw
wind should generally be 15-20kt, with gusts of 25-30kt under a
sunny sky.

Outlook: high pressure builds over the region tonight and
passes across the area Tuesday and the wind will diminish. High
pressure moves offshore Wednesday, followed by another low
pressure system that affects the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. This system will likely bring more rain and flight
restrictions. High pressure briefly returns Thursday night,
before another cold front approaches Friday.

Marine
As of 340 am est Monday...

winds diminishing west of the ches bay dropped the gales and
replaced with strong SCA across the rivers and currituck sound.

Gusts continue to exceed 35 kts across the ches bay and coastal
waters so will continue the gale headlines there. Models show the
gradient slowly diminishing thru the day and expect the rest of the
gales to be replaced with sca's by 00z. Seas 5-8 ft with 4-5 ft
waves will slowly subside as well by tonight. Given current sfc
tmps and wind speeds, freezing spray advsry remains in place.

Winds seas continue to improve tonight into tues as high pressure
builds into the region, but SCA winds and seas AOA will likely
continue through 12z Tue over the bay ocean. High pressure becomes
centered over the waters by Tue aftn, slowly shifting the winds to
the south Tue night and Wed at speeds AOB 15 kts. Another area of
low pressure is progged to approach the waters Wed night. At this
time, it looks like winds increase out of the S and may reach sca
thresholds late wed-thu (coupled W increasing waves seas). Winds
turn to the NW in the wake of the low Thu night, but will remain
around or just below SCA thresholds.

Equipment
As of 340 am est Monday...

the kakq radar will remain down until further notice due to a
mechanical failure.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Wind chill advisory until 11 am est this morning for
mdz021>025.

Nc... None.

Va... Wind chill advisory until 11 am est this morning for vaz048-
064-075>078-085-099-509>512-517>522.

Marine... Freezing spray advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
anz630>632-634-654-656.

Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz650-652-654-
656-658.

Freezing spray advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
anz650-652.

Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz633-635-
636-638.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz637.

Gale warning until 10 am est this morning for anz630>632-634.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm lkb
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Ajb
aviation... Jdm
marine... Mpr
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 12 mi40 min NW 25 G 30 19°F 36°F1027.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 13 mi104 min NW 29 G 29 19°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi40 min NNW 27 G 32
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 27 mi40 min W 23 G 29 1027.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 31 mi40 min NW 21 G 28 19°F 31°F1026.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 34 mi40 min NW 17 G 31 19°F 39°F1026.4 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 35 mi64 min WNW 6 22°F 1028 hPa-4°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi40 min NNW 28 G 36 18°F 1026.8 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 39 mi40 min NW 6 G 16 22°F 34°F1025.3 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 41 mi40 min NW 21 G 25 22°F 1028 hPa
44072 44 mi34 min 23°F 41°F4 ft
NCDV2 49 mi40 min NW 17 G 24 19°F 35°F1027.8 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW5W4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4NE4E4E6NE9E7E4E6
2 days agoE6SE6SE5SE6E5E4E6E4E4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5SW7SW9W6

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 06:07 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:17 PM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:01 PM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.10.80.40.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.511.41.51.51.30.90.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:11 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:39 AM EST     1.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:05 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.200.40.81.11.31.41.20.90.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.20.10.40.71

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.