Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Heathsville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 20, 2017 6:33 PM EDT (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:11AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 407 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Through 7 pm..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft...subsiding to 1 foot after midnight. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 407 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains over the western atlantic as a persistent trough lingers over central virginia through the weekend. A weakening cold front approaches the waters Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Heathsville CDP, VA
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location: 37.84, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 202028
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
428 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds toward the mid atlantic today into the
weekend, bringing increasingly hot and humid conditions to the
area. The hottest weather can be expected from Friday through
Sunday.

Near term through Friday
Current analysis indicates a weak sfc lee trough of low
pressure located from nj... Ssw to south central va and central
nc. The trough of low pressure aloft is now situated south of
the CWA and centered along the sc ga coast. Skies avg partly to
mostly sunny across the area this aftn with temperatures
generally ranging from 90 to 95 f along and near the coast with
mid to upper 90s over metro ric. Dew pts have again mixed out
enough over the hottest locales such that heat indices this aftn
are genly only around 100 f or slightly higher overall. Seeing a
few isolated showers tstms across mainly the far N and will keep
20% pops there through 7pm, otherwise mainly dry overnight
(earlier convection over oh in has weakened and seems unlikely
to hold together as a weak wave aloft crosses N of the area
overnight in the wnw aloft. Warmer than last night with lows
staying 70-75 f or higher tonight.

Model consensus has the upper ridge axis centered from the tn
valley to nc on Fri into early sat, with an upper trough over
the eastern great lakes and NE states. The core of the highest
850 temperatures on Fri (21-22c) will be over much of the local
area of Fri and with dew pts expected to be higher (only mixing
out to around 70 f inland and to the lower-mid 70s near the
coast). Expect heat indices to be more solidly into advisory
criteria (105 to 109 f) and have therefore issued a heat
advisory for most of the CWA (left coastal worcester nc outer
banks out for now with cooler temperatures as well as much of
the far SW where it will be slightly drier). Actual highs will
be around 100 f metro richmond to the mid upper 90s elsewhere
(locally cooler lower 90s immediate coast). As far as precip
chances, airmass appears too stable overall for much in the way
of pop-up storms during the day, but with wnw flow aloft and
some weak shortwave energy moving into the area by late aftn,
will have ~20% pops by mid late aftn over the NW 1 2 of the cwa.

Enough shear moves into the far NW for a marginal risk for
severe with wind being the main threat is any type of convective
complex can hold together upon crossing the mtns.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
Ramped pops up a bit more for Fri night especially N NE zones
closest to upper level shortwave energy tracking through the wnw
flow aloft. Very warm humid Fri night with lows mainly 75 to 80
f. Slightly cooler most areas for Sat due to potential for more
clouds and as core of 850 mb heat shifts a bit s. However, it
will be even more humid so expect at least southern portions of
the CWA to need a heat advisory even with highs on avg only in
the mid 90s. As airmass destabilizes more by Sat aftn early
evening, and as heights aloft drop, convection developing from
the NW will be more likely to hold together for at least 30-50%
pops across most areas (20% NE nc) from late Sat aftn through
sat night. Far N NE portions of the CWA are in a slight risk
where higher shear will reside with marginal risk for the
remainder of the cwa. Again wind will be the primary threat.

Lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s Sat night and continued hot
an humid with additional heat headlines likely needed for some
of the region on Sunday. Highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s
Sunday.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Long term period will feature near normal temps on avg and
occasional chances for rain. In general expect lwr temps than this
weekend as the broad upr-level ridge across the eastern CONUS breaks
down in response to an approaching upr-level trough. The trough and
associated low-level front will bring an increasing chance for rain
mon, but will cap pops at 40% for now due to uncertainties regarding
timing and available moisture. Further model divergence occurs tue
and wed, with the 12z ECMWF keeping the low-level boundary in the
vicinity and the 12z GFS pushing things offshore, so will maintain
low end pops (20-40%) through midweek, with the best chance over far
se areas. As for temps, after one more hot day Mon with highs up to
the mid 90s, expect mid upr 80s for Tue through thu.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions will persist today into Fri morning. Some
scattered CU between 4-5kft this afternoon then clear this
evening with a few high clouds. Any fog tonight will be this and patchy
at best and left out of forecast for now. S-sw winds below 10
kts.

Outlook... MainlyVFR conditions expected Fri and sat. But, isolated
storms Fri aftn into Fri night acrs NW or NRN counties, and isolated
to sctd storms Sat aftn into Sat night could produce MVFR
conditions.

Marine
Extended period of sub-sca conditions continues this week into the
weekend. Pattern is stagnant with bermuda high pres centered well
offshore and typical summertime late day thermal troughs with S sw
winds averaging 5-10 kt, occasionally up to 15 kt especially tonight
due to a slight increase in the pressure gradient. Waves over the
bay 1-2 ft with seas over coastal wtrs 2-3 ft. The next (weakening)
cold front approaches the region late mon, dropping into the area
mon night tue. Mainly sub-sca conditions expected to continue
however with weak CAA behind the front, and just some 4-5 ft seas
psbl out 20 nm. Flow becomes N nely then Tue through Thu as the frnt
slides offshore and dissipates.

Climate
Heatwave is expected to develop, mainly Friday through Sunday.

The 2nd half of july is climatologically the hottest few weeks
of the year so we still may not set any daily records at our
main climate sites. For reference, record highs today through
Sunday are listed below:
* date: today(7 20) fri(7 21) sat(7 22) sun(7 23)
* ric: 103 1930 104 1930 103 1952 103 1952
* orf: 102 1942 101 1926 102 2011 103 2011
* sby: 104 1930 106 1930 104 1930 103 2011
* ecg: 104 1942 102 1987 104 1952 104 1952

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for mdz021>024.

Nc... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for ncz012>017-
030>032.

Va... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for vaz048-061-062-
064-068-069-075>078-080>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb tmg
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb tmg
long term... Mas
aviation... Tmg jao
marine... Mas mam
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 12 mi46 min SSW 13 G 16 81°F 88°F1013.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 13 mi34 min SSW 14 G 18 84°F 85°F2 ft1012.5 hPa (-1.4)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 19 mi34 min S 16 G 18 86°F 85°F2 ft1014.1 hPa (-1.8)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi46 min SSW 12 G 13
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 27 mi46 min SSE 11 G 13 1014.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 31 mi46 min S 14 G 17 86°F 1013.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 34 mi46 min S 8.9 G 11 88°F 83°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 35 mi64 min S 1 94°F 1015 hPa72°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi46 min SSW 12 G 14 87°F 1013.6 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 39 mi46 min S 13 G 15 84°F 86°F1014.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 41 mi46 min SSE 11 G 12 85°F 1014.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 43 mi46 min SSW 8 G 11 91°F 84°F1013.3 hPa
44072 44 mi124 min SSE 9.7 G 12 85°F
NCDV2 49 mi46 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 1012.1 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 49 mi34 min SSW 7.8 G 12 88°F1 ft

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi41 minS 1010.00 miFair85°F75°F75%1013 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE4SE4S4S7S6S5SW4SW5SW5SW4SW5SW7SW6SW6W43SW5S3S6SW4S5SE9
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1 day agoSE9SE5S5SE5S4S3S4S4CalmS3S3S3SW4W4SW4SW4334S4SE66S6SE6
2 days agoE7SE6SE7S6S7S6S5S8S7W4SW3CalmCalmCalmS4S4SW56S5SE4S7S7S9SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:31 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:08 AM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:27 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:41 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.80.50.2000.20.50.81.11.21.210.70.40.1-0-00.20.50.91.31.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:35 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:30 AM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:03 PM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.50.2000.20.40.70.91.11.10.90.70.40.1-0-00.10.40.71.11.31.41.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.