Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bloxom, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:53PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 2:16 PM EDT (18:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 10:09PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1248 Pm Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Rest of today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Thu..N winds 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 1248 Pm Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered north of the area through today...as hurricane maria moves northward to a position about 150 miles east of cape hatteras by Wed morning. Maria will then recurve out to sea through Friday. SEe the national hurricane center advisories for details. SWells and increasing seas from hurricane maria will impact the coastal area through most of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bloxom, VA
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location: 37.85, -75.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 261750
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
150 pm edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
Maria will track northward off the north carolina coast while
gradually weakening today through Wednesday. Maria will then
push east northeast and out to sea Wednesday night and Thursday.

High pressure will build into the region later Thursday through
Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of late this morning, hurricane maria was located about 175
miles SE of hat moving north at 7 mph. Latest radar showed a few
bands of light showers well ahead of maria, rotating onshore
acrs portions of SE va and NE nc. Otherwise, NE winds were
spreading low level moisture across much of the cwa.

Maria will continue to push N during today, and perhaps
slightly W of due n, as an upper low drops sewd acrs fl.

Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result
in a continuation of 20-50% pops,mainly along and E of i-95
(though will have 20% pops into the southern piedmont as well).

Qpf will be minimal for most areas, with highest amounts over
extreme SE va and NE nc where highest pops are fcst. Highs today
will range mostly from the upper 70s to lower 80s under a
mostly cloudy sky (except for partly sunny conditions over the
far W nw). Breezy along the coast with a NE wind 15-20 mph,
with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Maria reaches about 160mi ese of CAPE hatteras by this evening 00z
wed, around 140-150 miles E of CAPE hatteras by 12z wed, and
then 150-180 miles ene of CAPE hatteras by 00z thu, as some
spread remains in the guidance. NHC has maria weakening to a
tropical storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will
result in minimal rainfall acrs SE va NE nc (and coastal md to a
lesser degree), generally 0.50" or less, with the highest
amounts over extreme SE va and NE nc. There is now a good
possibility for strong wind gusts south of CAPE charles on the
coastal waters, and along the immediate coast from orf va beach
to the currituck county beaches (including the currituck sound).

Therefore, we have upgraded tropical storm watch to a tropical
storm warning for CAPE charles light to the va nc border (656).

High seas and minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will
also occur along the coast. Will maintain pops of 20-40% east of
i-95 Wed (40-50% coastal NE nc Tue night wed), with slight chc
pops into the piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from
around norfolk va beach southward into coastal NE nc. The
biggest impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach
erosion along near the coast. Highs on Wed will range fm the
upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast, to the mid 80s inland,
after morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

By 12z thu, maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles
ene of CAPE hatteras, then pushing well out to sea by late in
the day. Will carry lingering slight chc pops (~20%) along the
coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day. Highs on Thu will range fm the upper 70s
to lower 80s along the coast, to the lower to mid 80s inland.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted
upper trough swings across the great lakes and northeastern us
Friday and Saturday. This trough will serve to escort maria away
from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through
the region on Thursday night. This will allow drier and cooler air
to move back into the region. Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A
secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will
slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off
the coast on Saturday. But moisture will be limited with the front
and the best chance for any showers will be over the delmarva. By
Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across new
england and down the eastern seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This
will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the
low. To mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Scattered showers have been moving in from the coast
periodically affecting orf phf ecg. Mainly ifr CIGS continue
across SE va, while they have genly lifted to MVFR ~1500 ft at
ric sby ecg. Gusty NE winds prevail across the SE through
tonight Wed (gusts to 30-35 kt possible at orf ecg). Skies
become variably cloudy inland on Wed (stay mostly cloudy through
midday near the coast). Winds diminish and skies become mostly
clear Wed night into early Thu though N winds stay gusty at the
coast.

Outlook: generally dry and quiet from Thu into the upcoming
weekend. Will probably see a brief period of clouds Fri night
with a secondary cold frontal passage, but conditions look to
remainVFR.

Marine
Update as of 1030am edt... Upgraded to gale warning for the
mouth of the bay and anz654 from CAPE charles to parramore
island.

Given the track of maria and the broadening wind field... Tropical
storm warnings remain in effect from CAPE charles light to
currituck beach light. With the track staying far enough
offshore... It still does not look like sustained TS winds will
be in the bay... But there should be frequent gusts to 35 kt for
a period tonight into Wed at the mouth of the bay. As such... Have
upgraded to gale warnings for the mouth of the bay, as well as
marine zone anz654 from north of CAPE charles to parramore
island thru 7pm & 10pm Wed respectively. Winds seas will start
to improve Wednesday night as maria rapidly moves east. Scas are
in places for the rivers and northern 2 zones over the bay.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of hurricane maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures currently 0.5 to 1 ft today as northeast to
east winds begin to increase. Expect the departure to slowly
steadily increase as maria moves N through wed. Expect
departures of 2 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday across the southern bay
and areas south of CAPE henry along the ocean... W 1-1.5 ft
departures northern bay into the northern coastal waters. These
values are similar to what we saw last week in jose. However...

the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft less this week than last
week in jose. This may keep any coastal flooding confined to
minor during the time of high tide (through wed).

As with jose... The main concern may end up being high surf and
potential coastal erosion. Will issue a high surf advisory for
the entire coastal waters starting tomorrow as the swell
associated with maria moves into the region. Am still thinking
that nearshore waves of 8-11 ft are possible starting Tuesday
and continuing into Wednesday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for mdz025.

Nc... Tropical storm warning for ncz017-102.

Va... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for vaz098>100.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz630>632-
635>638-650-652.

Gale warning until 7 pm edt Wednesday for anz634.

Tropical storm warning for anz633-656-658.

Gale warning until 10 pm edt Wednesday for anz654.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Lkb tmg
short term... Jdm tmg
long term... Jdm jef
aviation... Lkb
marine... Alb jdm
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 17 mi47 min NE 20 G 24 74°F 75°F1012.3 hPa
44089 20 mi47 min 74°F11 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 27 mi47 min N 19 G 20 1012.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 31 mi47 min N 8 G 14 76°F 77°F1014.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi27 min NNE 19 G 23 75°F 1012.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 36 mi27 min NNE 14 G 18 74°F 1013.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi47 min NNE 8 G 11 75°F 78°F1014 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 46 mi47 min NNE 8 G 11 72°F 74°F1014.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi47 min NNE 11 G 13

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA14 mi22 minNE 14 G 1810.00 miOvercast78°F73°F85%1012.5 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA14 mi23 minNE 1510.00 miOvercast77°F73°F88%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE6NE7E3NE4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmNE4E3E7NE10E7NE7E8NE9
2 days agoNW5NW6N5N3SE5S3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4CalmNW4N3N4E10E10
G14

Tide / Current Tables for Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Guard Shore
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:46 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:28 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:12 PM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.81.21.72.12.221.81.51.10.80.60.60.91.31.82.32.52.52.321.61.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:24 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:43 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:50 PM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:39 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.21.51.71.91.91.81.61.31.10.90.911.21.61.92.22.22.221.71.41.21

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.