Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bloxom, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:50PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 12:39 PM EDT (16:39 UTC) Moonrise 4:56AMMoonset 5:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1019 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
.gale warning in effect until 1 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..E winds 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely in the evening. A slight chance of tstms late in the evening...then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1019 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure along the north carolina coast will slowly move up off the virginia coast later today. The low will weaken well offshore tonight and Wednesday. High pressure will become centered off the southeast and mid atlantic coast Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bloxom, VA
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location: 37.85, -75.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 251427
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1027 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks across the north carolina coastal plain
today... Then continues northeast along the mid atlantic coast
tonight and Wednesday. High pressure builds into the area
Thursday. A cold front stalls north of the region on Friday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Tropical moisture plume and associated showers now lifting
north northwest as the system continue to wrap around the
upr level low to the south. Of note is the dry slot noted by
sct-bkn mid level clouds across NE nc/sern va. Still have the
upr level systm to deal with this afternoon so will continue
with the cat to likely pops for the next few hrs slowly ramping
down toward evening. Thunder chcs continue across the south and
east as the system tracks ne, especially in areas that do get
some partial sunshine. Highs arnd 60 NW to mid 70s se.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Thursday/
Upper/surface low pressure lifts along the mid-atlantic coast
this evening, and then north of the local waters late tonight.

Wrap around moisture keeps chance to likely pops across the
northeast local area through late tonight. Given the recent
rainfall and saturated soils, have included patchy fog across
much of the region. However, cloud cover and light winds will
limit the overall coverage. Lows tonight generally in the mid to
upper 50's.

Low pressure lifts along the northeast coast Wednesday as an
upper level ridge builds over the region. Thermal soundings
indicate mid level moisture trapped beneath a strong subsidence
inversion aloft, which will help keep clouds around through the
day. However, given the late april sun, anticipate several
breaks in the clouds inland. Soundings also indicate very little
mixing, but given height rises and warming low level
temps/thicknesses, forecast highs are generally in the mid to
upper 70's. Cooler along the coast. Mild Wednesday night under a
partly clear to mostly clear sky. Lows forecast in the upper
50's to low 60's.

Ridge axis slides offshore ahead of an approaching cold front
Thursday. Increasing return flow and 850mb temps around +14 to
+16c (around +1 standard deviation) result in warm (and dry)
conditions with highs generally in the 80's. Cooler along the
coast. Plenty of sunshine expected.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
Long term period will feature above normal temps with mainly dry wx.

For Thu night/fri, deep swly flow continues across the eastern
seaboard as an upper-level ridge then builds in through the weekend
allowing for warm temps and dry wx as most of the energy aloft will
stay N and W of the local area. At most a 20% chance of a late day
shra/tstm Fri and sat. High temps Fri through Sun in the 80s,
pushing near 90 Sat and sun. Low temps in the mid/upr 60s.

Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/
Widespread ifr conditions observed over the region this morning
as low pressure lifts over eastern north carolina. Ongoing
showers over the region this morning lifts north of the region
by late morning/early afternoon as the upper level low lifts
along the southeast coast. Ifr visibilities are expected under
the heaviest showers. Areal coverage of the precipitation
decreases across the region mid to late morning, but still
expect light rain/drizzle and ifr conditions to persist.

Additional scattered to numerous showers expected across the
region this afternoon as the upper low lifts over the region. A
thunderstorm is possible across the southeast.

Easterly winds gust to 25 to 35 knots this morning, diminishing
at or below 10-15 knots this afternoon as the surface low lifts
over the region.

Outlook: precipitation lifts northeast of the region overnight,
but ifr conditions expected to persist through late tonight.

Conditions begin to slowly improve late tonight into Wednesday
as the system moves farther north. Dry weather is in store for
Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the southeast
states.

Marine
Current analysis indicating sfc low pressure centered just s/sw of
cape hatteras, with e/ne flow ongoing across the local marine
area. Thus far, winds have been at SCA levels but have remained
below gale criteria. Pressure falls have not been that
significant and therefore will be relying on mixing the stronger
winds aloft to the surface. High res models depict a short
period with gale force gusts possible for the lower bay and
southern coastal waters through mid morning, with higher winds
lingering across the northern coastal waters into early aftn.

Overall, this event looks marginal but will maintain continuity
and keep the gale warning in effect through 10 am S to 1 pm n.

Sca headlines remain in effect for the upper james/york/rappahannock
rivers where gusts up to 30 kt are expected. Seas up to 8-12
ft, with a high surf advisory remaining in effect for 8-9 ft
waves in the surf zone. No cold air surge in the wake of this
system later today and tonight, so aside from high seas
lingering for the coastal waters/mouth of bay, expect rapidly
improving conditions later today and tonight. Seas should fall
off to below 5 ft later wed/wed night. Winds begin to shift to
the S thu/fri w/ sub-sca conditions to prevail.

Tides/coastal flooding
Current tidal departures are averaging around 1.5 to 1.75 feet
in the lower bay and southern coastal waters due to ongoing
onshore flow, while departures farther N are genly 1 ft or
less. Have raised coastal flood advisories for zones adjacent to
the lower bay/james/york river, as well as the va eastern
shore. This will be for the upcoming high tide later this
morning. More uncertainty exists farther N in the bay up the
coast and have continued with another round of statements for
these areas for now. Surprisingly, despite continued onshore
flow, currents data from CAPE henry channel shows that water has
been exiting the bay at the same rate that it has been coming
in/ i.E. Piling of water into the bay has been fairly minimal
so far. Estofs and cbofs data suggest this will change later
today through tonight with the potential for water to become
trapped in the bay and for eventual minor flooding for the
mid/upper bay by tonight. May need to raise a coastal flood
advisory later today for some of these locations, but did not do
this yet because of how the winds associated with this system
have genly underperformed so far.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for mdz025.

Wind advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for mdz025.

Nc... High surf advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for ncz102.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz089-093-523>525.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for
vaz095>097-099-100.

High surf advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for vaz098.

High surf advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for vaz099-100.

Wind advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for vaz099-100.

Marine... Gale warning until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz650-652.

Gale warning until 1 pm edt this afternoon for anz630>632-634-
654-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
anz635>638.

Synopsis... Alb/mpr/sam
near term... Mpr/sam
short term... Sam
long term... Mas
aviation... Sam/jef
marine... Lkb/mas
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 17 mi51 min E 11 G 14 60°F 58°F1005.8 hPa
44089 20 mi69 min 53°F10 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 27 mi51 min E 12 G 13 1005.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 31 mi51 min NE 17 G 23 60°F 58°F1007.3 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi39 min ESE 9.7 G 12 62°F 61°F3 ft1005.2 hPa (-0.0)
44042 - Potomac, MD 36 mi39 min ENE 18 G 23 60°F 59°F2 ft1005.5 hPa (-0.8)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi51 min ENE 20 G 27 60°F 60°F1005.9 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 46 mi51 min E 16 G 23 56°F 54°F1008.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi51 min E 14 G 17

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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NE10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA14 mi44 minE 9 G 175.00 miOvercast with Haze63°F30°F29%1006.1 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA14 mi45 minENE 12 G 196.00 miFog/Mist60°F60°F100%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE10
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E12E8E10NE8NE6E5NE9NE8E8E8E9E10NE10NE12
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2 days agoNE9NE7NE9NE8NE10
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NE7NE8N6NE3NE6N3NE7N7N5NE8N4N4NE5NE7NE5NE7NE8
G15
NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Guard Shore
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:01 PM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.52.11.40.70.2-0.2-0.10.311.72.32.62.42.11.50.90.2-0.1-0.20.20.91.72.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:57 PM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.11.50.80.2-0.2-0.3-00.51.21.82.22.221.610.3-0.2-0.4-0.10.41.11.92.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.