Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:52PM Thursday April 27, 2017 2:43 PM EDT (18:43 UTC) Moonrise 6:17AMMoonset 8:20PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1240 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..S winds 10 kt...increasing to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers late in the evening. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms until late afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1240 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A weak cold front will approach from the west this afternoon. The front dissipates as it slides into the northern waters Friday morning. High pressure becomes centered off the southeast and mid atlantic coast Friday into the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, VA
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location: 37.88, -75.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 271830
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
230 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches the mid atlantic region today, stalling
near the mountains tonight. High pressure prevails off the
southeast coast the rest of Friday through the weekend. The next
cold front pushes across the region early next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Update... Based on webcams and observation trends, any fog on the
md lower eastern shore has lifted into low stratus and will
continue to lift and scour out over the next hour or so as
south winds increase. Meanwhile, stratocumulus is moving
offshore as of 900 am with high cirrus pushing in from the west.

Additional mid to high level clouds expected to push into the
eastern piedmont this afternoon as a cold front approaches the
ohio valley. This may hamper full warming potential in these
areas and adjusted high temps down a degree or two as a result.

Also adjusted atlantic beaches down 5-10 degrees for highs with
temps starting out in the upper 50s this morning and an onshore
wind component over colder waters. Otherwise, today will be warm
with fair weather cumulus development by this afternoon.

Previous discussion...

latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a broad/anomalous upper
trough encompassing much of the western/central conus, with an
upper level ridge over the east. At the surface, weak area of
low pressure is located offshore the northeast coast with high
pressure well offshore extending westward over the southeast. A
cold front associated with the upper trough is located along the
mississippi river valley. A dense fog advisory remains in
effect for the lower maryland eastern shore, with an area of
dense fog visible in the obs and on satellite. Otherwise, only
some patchy fog inland as light southerly flow and relatively
dry low levels have kept widespread fog at bay.

Fog expected to erode/lift shortly after daybreak in response to
quickly warming temperatures. The upper level ridge axis slides
offshore late morning as the central us trough de-amplifies and
lifts over the ohio valley and into the great lakes region. An
associated cold front will reach the central appalachians late
today. Increasing return flow ahead of the front (southwest
gusts of 20-25 mph) and 850mb temperatures around +14 to +16c
(+1 standard deviation) results in a warm day, with temperatures
generally 10+ degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs generally in
the mid 80's. Cooler along the coast. Increasing mid to upper
level clouds late today may keep some of the far western
piedmont in the low to mid 80's. Otherwise, outside of some high
clouds spreading over the region today from a decaying line of
showers, a mostly sunny sky is expected.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Saturday/
Showers and thunderstorms progged to develop along the cold
front this afternoon from the ohio valley to the southeast. Hi-
res guidance pushes a weakened version of the convective line
into the piedmont early this evening as the upper level forcing
becomes displaced from the deepest gulf moisture. Short term
guidance indicating better moisture return compared to 24 hours
ago thanks to a developing 30-40 kt low level jet. Good moisture
flux advects anomalous precipitable water values into the
region ahead of the line/pre-frontal surface trough. Thermal
soundings indicate elevated instability as height falls and cold
air advection aloft steepen mid level lapse rates. Showalters
range from -1 to -2. Deep layer shear progged around 30-40 knots
due to increasing winds aloft. However, given the lack of
overall forcing and the convective line outracing the front,
have kept pops in the chance category tonight. Main threat from
thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall. Mild tonight, with
lows generally in the mid to upper 60's.

Weak surface trough/convergence boundary stalls near the coast
Friday morning as the deepest moisture pushes offshore. Even
though the best moisture pushes offshore, enough moisture and
instability near the coast will keep mention of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
early-mid afternoon. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge amplifies
off the southeast coast Friday. Early morning clouds and
convection will temper temperatures from reaching their full
potential Friday afternoon. Highs similar to today, generally in
the mid (possibly upper) 80's. Cooler near the coast.

Heights continue to build into Sunday as 850mb temps warm to +16
to +18c (+2 standard deviations). The result will be the warmest
day of the season with widespread readings in the low 90's.

Dewpoints in the 60's will push heat index values into the mid
90's inland. A backdoor front progged to drop into the northern
mid-atlantic region late Saturday, but models indicate large
spatial and timing differences. While the models indicate a
great deal of instability, soundings indicate a cap just above
850mb. Moisture is also limited with precipitable water values
at or below 1.25 inches. Will maintain slight chance pops across
the north near the dropping front, but believe sea-breeze
boundaries will struggle to overcome the lack of moisture and
warm temperatures aloft.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through
sun as an upper level ridge remains anchored just off the east
coast. A backdoor cold front could affect NRN portions of the
area Sat night thru Sun morning with a slgt chc of showers, then
a slowly approaching cold front from the west could produce
isolated or widely sctd showers or tstms Sun aftn into sun
evening, especially WRN half of the region. Lows Sat night in
the mid 60s to near 70. Highs on Sun in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

That cold front will push thru the mts by late mon, then cross
the area and move off the coast Mon night into Tue morning. Have
high chc to likely pops for showers/tstms during this period.

Highs on Mon in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Mon night mainly
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Weak high pressure will provide dry
wx for later Tue morning thru at least most of wed, as it
slides from the gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Highs on
tue in the 70s, and mainly in the mid to upper 70s on wed.

Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/
Vfr conditions expected through the evening hours with scattered
afternoon CU inland around 4-6kft agl. Weakening line of
convection expected to push across the region this evening
through late tonight. Lower ceilings/visibilities will be tied
to convection, then some lingering MVFR to locally ifr
conditions possible through 15z fri.

Outlook... Mainly dry weather expected over the weekend. Next
frontal boundary expected late Monday into Tuesday with
possibility of shwrs and tstms.

Marine
A cold front approaches the waters today resulting in an
increase of south and southwest winds through tonight. Deep low
pressure over the upper great lakes will move north into canada
which will relax the pressure gradient by Friday.

Southeast to south winds were generally 10 knots or less early
this morning. Seas subsided overnight but remain 4 to 5 ft north
of parramore island. While there may be lull in 5 foot seas late
this morning... They are expected to build once again late today
and into tonight as winds increase.

Replaced SCA for hazardous seas with a sca. This is to avoid
confusion with winds increasing today. The SCA was also expanded
to anz654 (parramore island to CAPE charles) where sca
conditions are expected to develop by this afternoon. There is
indication the SCA may be needed for the rest of the coastal
zones for a short period this evening but will let the day shift
assess the need. Elsewhere conditions are expected to stay below
sca. Although winds over land are expected to gust over 20 knots
today... The cool water will inhibit mixing over the marine area.

The cold front that approaches the waters today will dissipate
over the area Friday morning. A disorganized pressure pattern
will produce light winds over the waters Friday. Seas are
forecast to subside to below 5 feet by midday Friday. Benign
conditions are indicated for the marine area through the
weekend. Another deep low pressure system will move through the
upper midwest early next week. This along with an approaching
cold front will increase the pressure gradient locally and
another SCA may be needed starting Monday.

Tides/coastal flooding
There is gradual improvement in water levels that have been
elevated by a new moon and long period swells. Some locations
will continue to have high tides get within a few tenths of a
foot of minor flood. At this time... The high tide cycle early
Friday morning at bishops head maryland touches minor flood.

Climate
It appears likely that richmond and norfolk will end the month
with the warmest april on record. Warm temperatures during most
of the month combined with an unseasonably warm period to end
april are expected to push the average temperature above that
which occurred in 1994. At richmond, the previous record was
63.2 and at norfolk it was 64.7. Both were set in 1994. This
month's temperatures could be around a degree above those
values.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Friday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Alb/bmd
near term... Bmd/sam
short term... Sam
long term... Tmg
aviation... Jdm/sam
marine... Lsa
tides/coastal flooding... Akq
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 12 mi133 min 54°F4 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 21 mi43 min SSE 8.9 G 12 71°F 69°F1011 hPa (-1.2)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 36 mi43 min S 13 G 13 1011.3 hPa (-1.8)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi43 min SSE 11 G 12 65°F 65°F1010.7 hPa (-1.8)
OCSM2 39 mi163 min 3 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 46 mi33 min S 9.7 G 9.7 67°F 1010.9 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi33 min SSE 14 G 14 66°F 1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA4 mi49 minS 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F64°F67%1011.2 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA21 mi48 minSW 12 G 2110.00 miFair81°F56°F43%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W7W6NW8NW5E5SE4SE4S3S3S6S5S4S3CalmS3S5SE4S5S4SE4S7S10S11
1 day agoE6SE4NE7NE11NE11NE9NE6E10
G19
E10E6SE6CalmNE5N5N4N4NW8NW8NW8W8W8
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2 days agoNE19
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Tide / Current Tables for Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Virginia
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Bogues Bay
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Thu -- 04:13 AM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:51 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:15 PM EDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.71.80.8-0.1-0.5-0.30.41.42.43.13.43.12.51.70.80.1-0.4-0.30.41.52.63.64.14

Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:35 AM EDT     -0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:20 AM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:43 PM EDT     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:44 PM EDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.2-0-0.8-0.9-0.212.33.54.143.42.41.30.2-0.7-0.8-0.21.12.53.94.95.14.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.