Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:30PM Monday June 18, 2018 1:06 PM EDT (17:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:02AMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1107 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of today..S winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 kt late. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..W winds 10 kt, becoming ne late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Mainly S swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt, becoming W late. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1107 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will linger offshore through midweek. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest by later Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, VA
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location: 37.88, -75.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181632
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1232 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the coast through Tuesday.

A frontal boundary drops into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, then stalls across the region through the end of the
week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1230 pm edt Monday...

the fog has dissipated with the low sc scattering out early this
aftrn. A weak sfc trof is located across the se. Sct-bkn cu
developing across the area with the high res data showing some
sea-breeze convection developing in combo with the weak trof.

Thus, pops confined to the sern zones. Temps already in the upr
80s-lwr 90s and should top out in the low-mid 90s. Heat index
values btwn 100-104 so no advsry needed.

Dry wx for tonight with low temps mainly in the mid 70s.

The heat will peak tomorrow, with at least some SRN areas
needing an advsry.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday
As of 345 am edt Monday...

a frontal boundary will be approaching from the north tue,
leading to better chances for rain over the short term period
than previous days. Pops are in the 30-50% over northern areas
during the aftn tue. Some strong to severe storms are psbl as
well given the already high CAPE environment and increasing 0-6
km bulk shear to 25-30 kt. With similar temps Tue as today and
slightly higher dewpoints, a heat advisory may be need
especially over southern areas with heat indices reaching around
105. Rain chances increase into Tue night, with a more
widespread shra TSTM scenario shaping up for Wed with the
aforementioned sfc boundary stalling over the area. Heat indices
expected to MAX out in the 100-104 range most areas wed.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 400 pm edt Sunday...

the upper level ridge is forecast to shift southward and break
down late Wednesday through the end of the work week with a
weak cold front potentially sliding through the region late
Thursday into Friday. Model guidance also continues to show
abundant moisture will be in place throughout the region with
gfs pw values around 2.0" late Wednesday into the Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into at least
Thursday in this setup. It is still too early to pin down the
exact timing rain amounts, so maintained high end chance pops
Wednesday night and Thursday.

The frontal boundary moves just to the south of the region by
Friday leading to drier and slightly cooler conditions. An upper
level low tracks across the central us to the great lakes by
next weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as this
system tracks to the north.

Above average temperatures will continue throughout the extended
period. Highs are expected to top out in the middle to upper 80s
on Thursday Friday and will be dependent on any rain chances.

Slightly warmer for the second half of the extended period with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for Saturday and Sunday.

Overnight lows will also remain mild through the period with
temperatures generally ranging from near 70 to the mid 70s.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 630 am edt Monday...

lifr conditions to start off the 12z TAF period over the lwr
eastern shore, with improving conditions at ksby later this
morning. Elsewhere, low CIGS vsbys psbl for another hr or two
at kric and kphf, again improving thereafter. Winds turn to the
s SW but remain below 10 kt today and Tuesday. Isolated
afternoon showers tstms are possible over mainly SE va NE nc
today, with a better chance of tstms late Tuesday through
Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region.

Marine
As of 1105 am edt Monday...

winds become sse this afternoon and linger ~10kt. Winds veer
around from s-se to the SW and increase to 10-15 kt tonight and
Tuesday, in response to tightening gradient as front approaches
from the north. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-3 ft.

Weakening frontal boundary sags south over the waters late Tuesday
into Wednesday morning, briefly turning winds to the nne. The
meandering front slowly lifts back north on Wednesday, with onshore
flow gradually becoming ssw late Wednesday and early Thursday. Front
drops back south across the waters on Thursday, with a longer
duration of ne-e winds looks to occur for much of Thursday into
Friday, but with winds no higher than 10 kt.

Climate
As of 345 am edt Monday...

hottest airmass of the season so far is expected today tue. Record
highs are listed below for reference:
* site today 6 18 Tue 6 19
* ric: 100 (1970) 103 (1944)
* orf: 99 (1944) 101 (1944)
* sby: 98 (2014) 96 (1993)
* ecg: 100 (2011) 100 (1944)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mas
near term... Mpr
short term... Mas
long term... Ajb
aviation... Mas
marine... Mam
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 12 mi37 min 74°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 21 mi49 min NE 4.1 G 6 75°F 80°F1017.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 36 mi49 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 1018.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi49 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 80°F 82°F1018 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 38 mi49 min S 4.1 G 6 72°F 70°F1018 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 46 mi37 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 77°F 1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA4 mi73 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F85%1017.3 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA21 mi72 minENE 410.00 miFair84°F69°F61%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE9SE9SE9SE9SE9SE9SE6SE9SE6SE7SE8S6S3CalmCalmE4E4E3CalmE44SE6SE4
1 day agoS13S12S13S11S12S12S10S7SW7S7S11S10S8S8S7S4S3CalmS3CalmSE5E5E6E8
2 days agoS11S5W9NW15
G22
NE8E8SE5E4CalmS4SW6SW4SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmW4W4W7W3CalmSE8S11

Tide / Current Tables for Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Virginia
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Bogues Bay
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Mon -- 12:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:38 AM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:08 PM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.63.73.42.821.20.4-0.1-0.10.311.82.52.92.82.41.81.20.50-0.10.31.11.9

Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:07 AM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:37 PM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.74.43.82.91.80.7-0.1-0.4-00.71.72.73.43.53.22.51.80.90.2-0.20.10.91.93

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.