Monday, June17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic, VA

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Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:29PM Monday June 17, 2019 5:28 PM EDT (21:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:53PMMoonset 4:54AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 403 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Through 7 pm..S winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Scattered showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 403 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure anchored off the southeast coast for most of the upcoming week. A weak frontal boundary approaches from the northwest today into Tuesday bringing a chance for showers and storms to the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, VA
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location: 37.88, -75.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 172001
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
401 pm edt Mon jun 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure anchored off the southeast coast for most of the
upcoming week. A weak frontal boundary approaches from the
northwest today into Tuesday bringing a chance for showers and
storms to the region.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 215 pm edt Monday...

latest analysis reveals sfc high pressure anchored in place off
the coastal carolinas this morning. Weak sfc cool front lingers
over the northeast, just north of the mason-dixon line at
midday. Aloft, quasi-zonal flow continues over the region, with
some weak upper level disturbances riding SW to NE along the
periphery of the southeast upper ridge.

Strong heating and and a mainly clear sky have allowed temps to
rise well into the 80s to low 90s this afternoon (some cooler
low to mid 80s md beaches). Msas analysis indicating some weak
capping hanging on from the ric metro over to the eastern shore,
but we should see this cap break over the next few hours as
temps increase a bit more.

While a belt of enhanced westerly flow will generally stay
north of the local area today, the subtle perturbations in the
flow aloft have allowed some sct showers and storms to fire up
along developing lee trough off to the west. Past few runs of
the hrrr and the wrf-arw continue to show this activity spilling
e-ne across our northern tier of virginia piedmont counties
after 4pm, eventually reaching the northern neck and md eastern
shore after 7pm, closer to the enhanced winds aloft. The nrn
neck eastern shore area remains in a slight risk area, with a
marginal risk extending south to roughly the highway 460
corridor. Strong straight line winds and a few isolated
instances of large hail are more likely in these areas.

Areas to the south of the marginal risk will be well removed
from the stronger flow aloft and severe weather is
correspondingly less likely in this region, though a few of the
stronger thunderstorm cores this afternoon will be capable of
generating briefly gusty winds and heavy rain.

Given weak (south) to marginal (north) effective shear, rain
chances will wane quickly after sunset, and become relegated to
the northern tier by midnight, with no pops carried overnight.

Early morning lows in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday night
As of 300 pm edt Monday...

similar weather story for Tuesday, as the sfc front drops a bit
closer to the area. A bit more in the way of showers and storms
are expected Tuesday aftn and evening, with the potential for a
few more strong storms across the region. SPC has continued the
marginal risk for severe storms over the entire area, with
strong gusty winds remaining the mostly likely severe hazard.

Highs Tuesday will be modestly cooler than Monday due to greater
chances for rain and increased cloud cover with expected highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Unsettled weather pattern continues for Wednesday with
continued moist SW flow, strong daytime heating, and a continued
series of transient shortwave disturbances bringing additional
(mainly diurnally-driven) scattered showers and storms. 12z model
guidance continues to lean toward a better defined system
traversing the region Thursday with another shot at strong to
severe storms, clearing by late Thu night. Highs each day in the
upper 80s and low 90s with overnight lows remaining in the
upper 60s and low 70s.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 300 pm edt Monday...

high pressure builds into the area from the north Fri and sat.

This generally keeps it dry although some late day convection
may fire up over the WRN piedmont sat. Highs both days in the
low-mid 80s, a bit cooler at the coast. Lows in the 60s to nr 70
se.

Srn ridge establishes itself early next week. NW flow along
with a lee trof will result in sct mainly diurnal convection
each day. Warmer and more humid. Highs Sun 85-90 inland, low-mid
80s near the water. Lows Sun nite upr 60s-lwr 70s. Highs mon
upr 80s-lwr 90s except low-mid 80s along the coast.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
As of 215 pm edt Monday...

vfr conditions across area terminals through this evening, with
some brief flight-restrictions possible in sct showers and
storms (mainly ric-sby). Have included vcts at sby in the taf
at this time, but will hold off at ric for now due to expected
lower coverage. SW winds generally at or below 10 knots this
aftn, except variable and gusty in and around thunderstorms.

Outlook: sct diurnal convection conditions continue through
most of the week. Greatest chcs will remain north of a ric-sby
line.

Marine
As of 400 pm edt Monday...

south to southwesterly flow continues across the waters as the
bermuda high remains entrenched over the western atlantic and
southeastern us. Winds speeds vary during the day with lower winds
through the afternoon hours and some increase during the evening and
overnight hours. At this point however those winds seem to range
between about 5kt - 15 kt. That is expected to continue through
Tuesday evening when a weak cold front tries to slide into the mid-
atlantic states. This wave should back the winds more to the south
and might kick things up more into the 15 kt range through Wednesday
morning when the shortwave moves through and off the coast.

Behind this wave, the flow weakens and turns back to the SW for
Wednesday night but thing begins to increase again on Thursday into
Friday as a stronger cold front approaches the area. The wind shift
with the front on Friday will flip the winds to the NW and they
might briefly get a bit strong but at this point don't think winds
during the next 4 to 5 days will reach SCA levels.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam rhr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mpr rhr
marine... Ess


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 12 mi58 min 73°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 21 mi40 min S 8.9 G 13 83°F 84°F1014.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 36 mi40 min ESE 7 G 7 1015.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi46 min SE 4.1 G 6 80°F 79°F1014.8 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 38 mi46 min SSW 4.1 G 8 77°F 76°F1015.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi34 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 77°F1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA4 mi34 minS 910.00 miFair88°F71°F57%1014.2 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA21 mi33 minSW 1110.00 miFair90°F73°F58%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------S7S9S11SE7S9S9
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Wishart Point, Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Wishart Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:28 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:57 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:29 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:14 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.90.3-0.1-0.10.41.21.92.42.62.421.40.90.40.10.10.61.42.22.93.23.12.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, USCG Station, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Island
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Mon -- 03:27 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:09 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:28 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.2-0.1-00.30.71.11.51.71.61.30.90.60.30.10.10.40.91.41.8221.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.