Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saxis, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:54PM Monday September 25, 2017 1:13 PM EDT (17:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:58AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1251 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
This afternoon..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 2 to 3 ft late.
Tue..NE winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves around 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 4 ft. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 ft.
ANZ600 1251 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered north of the area today, as hurricane maria starts to move north well off the southeast coast. Maria will move slowly northward this afternoon through Tuesday to around 150 miles east of cape hatteras by Wednesday morning. SEe the national hurricane center advisories for details. SWells and increasing seas from hurricane maria will begin to impact the coastal area today and persist through most of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxis, VA
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location: 37.92, -75.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 251114
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
714 am edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the mid atlantic today.

Meanwhile, hurricane maria will gradually track north well off
the southeast coast. Maria is forecast to approach the outer
banks Tuesday into Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front late in the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A mid upper level high remains anchored from the ERN great
lakes through the northeast CONUS early this morning, with
rather weak (~1020mb) high pressure at the surface. Hurricane
maria (presently a category 1) is situated near 31n and 73w as
of 5 am, which is about 350mi sse of CAPE hatteras. Mostly
clear early this morning, with some thin cirrus, and some bands
of stratocumulus approaching coastal NE nc. Temperatures range
through the 60s early this morning, with some low 70s for
coastal SE va NE nc.

The high will remain anchored N of the region today as
hurricane maria gradually tracks nwd. The current 25 00z model
consensus depicts maria about 300mi sse of CAPE hatteras at 18z
today. Becoming mostly cloudy along the coast today as model
cross-sections show moisture thickening below 900mb. Farther w,
conditions should be partly to mostly sunny. Remaining
unseasonably warm today with high temperatures ranging from the
upper 70s to around 80f at the coast, to the mid to locally
upper 80s farther inland. Mainly dry today with only a ~15% pop
for coastal NE nc this aftn.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
There is good model agreement showing maria reaching about
200mi SE of CAPE hatteras by 12z Tuesday, and the 25 00z ecmwf
has joined the remainder of the guidance with an ewd shift in
the track. Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps
slightly W of due N as an upper low drops sewd across fl.

Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result
in 20-30% pops along and E of i-95 Tuesday, but the ewd shift in
the guidance places the deeper moisture offshore. QPF will be
minimal for most areas. Lows will generally be in the mid 60s to
low 70s tonight, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday
under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming breezy along the coast with
a NE wind increasing to 15-25 mph along the coast Tuesday, with
gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

Maria reaches about 180mi ese of CAPE hatteras by 00z
Wednesday, around 150mi E of CAPE hatteras by 12z Wednesday, and
then 140-180mi ene of CAPE hatteras by 00z Thursday as some
spread begins to show up in the guidance. NHC has maria
weakening to a tropical storm during this time-frame. The
slight ewd shift will result in less rainfall across SE va NE nc
(and coastal md to a lesser degree), but there is still a
potential for modestly stronger wind gusts at the coast, higher
seas, and at least minor to localized moderate coastal flooding.

At this time, still don't anticipate heavy rain along the
coast, generally less than two inches, given maria's offshore
track. Will have pops of 20-40% east of i-95 Wed (40-50% coastal
ne nc), with slight chc pops into the piedmont. Wind gusts
could reach 30-45 mph from around norfolk va beach southward
into coastal NE nc where tropical headlines are in effect. The
biggest impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach
erosion along near the coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast
to the low mid 80s inland, after morning lows in the 60s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
First part of the extended, Wednesday night through Thursday,
will be predicated on future track of hurricane maria. Have
utilized superblend for tangible weather during this period,
given potential uncertainty in the track. Again, will stress
that the 12z ECMWF is ~50 miles closer to the coast than the gfs
and have weighted the forecast more toward its solution for the
extended. This would linger maria closer to the nc obx through
Thursday before eventually taking maria fairly quickly
northeastward away from the area on Friday in advance of an
upper trof dropping southeastward from canada. This trof and
associated cold front move into the region next Saturday.

Above normal temperatures continue on Thursday, with highs from
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures cool into the 70s
Friday Saturday in the wake of hurricane maria. Lows Wednesday
night range from the mid 60s to around 70f, then mid 50s NW to
mid 60s SE Thursday night, and in the 50s to low 60s
Friday Saturday nights.

Aviation 11z Monday through Friday
High pressure remains anchored N of the region this morning,
with maria gradually lifting nwd off the southeast coast. MVFR
cigs are pushing onshore, and will slowly push farther inland
later today into this evening, and potentially falling to ifr
tonight. A NE wind of 5-10 kts this morning will increase to
10-15kt today, with gusts of 20-25kt possible at orf ecg this
aftn. Increasing moisture from maria will result in a 20-40% chc
for showers Tuesday Wednesday. Locally stronger wind
speeds gusts are expected at orf ecg Tuesday night Wednesday. A
cold front approaches from the NW Thursday Friday and pushes
maria farther offshore with conditions improving Thursday Friday.

Marine
Hurricane maria is located about 380 miles sse of CAPE hatteras
nc as of 500 am. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered
north of the area. The hurricane is forecast to track northward
well off the SE coast today into this evening, then moves to
well east of the nc outer banks by early Wed morning. The storm
will then start to track northeast Wed aftn and evening, then
accelerate ene out to sea late Wed night into Thu night. Ne
winds and waves seas will start to increase build over the
waters, esply SRN waters, this evening into Tue morning, as the
storm moves northward to well off the SE nc coast. NE winds will
increase to 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt by Tue morning,
with waves building to 2-5 ft (near 6 ft mouth of the bay), and
seas building to 6-10 ft.

Strongest NE winds and highest waves and seas will affect the
waters Tue night into Wed night with gusts to 35-45 kt a good
bet over the SRN ches bay, currituck sound, and va nc coastal
waters. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the currituck
sound, and SRN waters from the va nc border to currituck beach
light until 12z 800 am Thu morning. Aforementioned areas above
may be added to the watch this aftn, since impacts farther
north of the watch area are not anticipated to begin until tue
evening. Elsewhere, strong solid SCA conditions (20-30kt) will
occur. Seas will build as high as 14-15 ft south and 10-14 ft
north. N winds will then diminish west to east late Wed night
thru thu.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of hurricane maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Only expecting nuisance or minor flooding at the tidal gage
sites fm later today thru tue, then minor to possibly moderate
tidal flooding could occur at many sites in the middle to lower
bay, and SRN va and NE nc coastal waters Wed into Thu morning.

High surf advisories likely will be needed by tue, and lasting
into thu. The combination of storm surge and large waves could
result in some coastal erosion and damage to dune structures
later Tue into Wed night.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues through today, as 4-5 ft nearshore waves and
13-15 second swell persists.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Tropical storm watch for ncz015>017-102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for anz632-634-638.

Tropical storm watch for anz633-658.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Tuesday
for anz650-652-654-656.

Synopsis... Ajz jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Ajz jdm
aviation... Ajz
marine... Bmd tmg
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 22 mi43 min NE 16 G 18 72°F 76°F1016.4 hPa
44089 24 mi43 min 74°F7 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi43 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 77°F 78°F1016.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi43 min N 13 G 15 1016.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi33 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 1016.1 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 37 mi33 min ENE 12 G 14 74°F 1016.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 39 mi43 min E 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 78°F1016.8 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 44 mi43 min ENE 4.1 G 7 71°F 74°F1017.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi43 min SE 7 G 7
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 47 mi43 min S 1.9 G 1.9 78°F 77°F1016.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi43 min N 9.9 G 12 76°F 1017.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi43 min 85°F 78°F1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA14 mi19 minNE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1016.5 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA19 mi38 minENE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F70°F79%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9NE9NE6E7NE3E5NE3N3CalmN3N4CalmCalmN4CalmCalmN5N3E9E8E9E8NE9NE11
1 day agoE7SE6SE8SE7SE5--SE3S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmW4W3NW5NW5N3NE8NE7NE9
2 days agoNW9NW10NW9NW7NW8--NW4CalmW3W6NW5W5W7NW6NW6NW5NW6NW4N4N5N6NE7N7E6

Tide / Current Tables for Saxis, Starling Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Saxis
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:52 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:17 PM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:26 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.31.82.22.32.221.61.30.90.70.70.91.31.92.42.72.62.42.11.71.310.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ape Hole Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Ape Hole Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:26 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:54 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:50 PM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:45 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.11.62.12.42.42.11.71.30.90.60.50.61.11.72.22.62.72.52.21.81.30.90.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.