Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saxis, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:17PM Friday July 28, 2017 1:01 PM EDT (17:01 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1236 Pm Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tstms likely. Showers likely.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers, tstms.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt late in the morning, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft. Showers with tstms likely in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1236 Pm Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front approaches from the northwest today, and slowly pushes across the waters on Saturday. An area of low pressure moves along the front and slides off the coast Sunday into Monday. High pressure slowly builds in from the west Monday afternoon through the mid week period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxis, VA
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location: 37.92, -75.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 281115
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
715 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure affects the region today through Saturday... With a
cold front slowly pushing across the region tonight into
Saturday morning. The front pushes southeast of the area by
Sunday with an upper low sitting overhead through at least
Monday night.

Near term through tonight
Lee trough tightens and develops into a meso-low late in the day
as a cold front drops down from the nnw. Ongoing convection
early this morning should primarily move offshore shortly after
sunrise with pockets of showers lingering through mid morning.

After which, daytime heating within the warm sector ahead of the
front will destabilize the atmosphere and allow more storms to
develop this aftn; initially where shortwave energy interacts
with the lee trough and then as conditions become more unstable.

Meanwhile, an open trough over the upper great lakes will dig
into the ohio valley today and help to slowly push the cold
front across the area from late this aftn through tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms should be anticipated tonight. Slow
movement of the front, weak sfc-upper level winds, small mbe
vectors, and pwats increasing from roughly 1.50 inches to around
2.00 inches (or 150-175 percent of normal) by this evening, all
indicate that heavy rainfall will impact the region.

Additionally as the upper low interacts with the sfc meso-low, a
deformation zone will develop and enhance rainfall rates in an
already moisture- laden atmosphere... Primarily across the
maryland lower eastern shore, northern neck, middle peninsula,
and accomack county in va. Have really ramped up 6hr QPF amounts
in these areas (00z model guidance in better agreement) and
expanded the flash flood watch to include the aforementioned va
areas. While there is still some uncertainty about how far south
the deformation axis will set up, the general trend keeps the
best area for enhancement across the north. Storm total qpf
amounts from today through 18z Sat range from 2.00 to almost
3.50 inches within flash flood watch area. Convective processes
will be capable of pushing these amounts higher locally under
stronger, slow-moving storm cores. SPC now has the mid atlantic
region within a marginal risk for severe storms today tonight.

As such, any thunderstorms that develop in this timeframe will
be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, locally strong wind
gusts, frequent lightning, and localized flooding.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
The cold front is expected to stall over far SE va NE nc on
Saturday before shifting southeast of the area late Saturday
night. Overall, sfc high pressure builds across the midwest as
the upper low opening trough sits over the mid atlantic coast
through at least Monday night before shifting ewd and away from
the coast. Showers storms will be focused along the coast with
more widely scattered storms possible farther inland due to
elevated lift present with the upper low. Precip chances
expected to wane late Saturday night into Sunday as the front
gets shunted farther se. Once again, primary threats from any
thunderstorms Sat sat night will be moderate to heavy rainfall,
locally strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning.

Widespread precipitation, cloud cover, and cooler canadian air
with the upper trough will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below
normal Saturday. Highs Sat in the mid-upper 70s NW to
lower 80s se. Low temperatures cool off nicely with lows each
night in the lower 60s NW to mid-upper 60s se.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Low confidence forecast early next week as the models continue to
offer up different solutions on just how slow and far off the coast
the cut off low tracks. Rather breezy over eastern sections with
continued marine issues early next week. Otw, high pressure over
the mts keeps the rest of the fa dry. Highs Mon in the upr 70s-
lwr 80s except mid 70s at the beaches. Lows in the 60s to near
70 sern beach areas.

High pressure builds across the region for the mid week period.

Highs Tue in the mid-upr 80s except upr 70s at the beaches. Lows
in the mid 60s-lwr 70s. Highs Wed Thu 85-90. Moisture returns
from the west Thu afternoon. Added slight chc diurnal pops to
the piedmont.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
A lee trough tightens and develops into a meso-low late in the
day as a cold front drops down from the nnw. Ongoing convection
early this morning should primarily move offshore shortly after
sunrise with pockets of showers lingering through mid morning.

After which, scattered storms will develop this aftn and become
more widespread tonight as the cold front slowly tracks across
the area. Storm movement will be slow, therefore the main
impacts to airfield operations today will be very heavy
rainfall, locally strong wind gusts, frequent lightning,
localized flooding (best potential at ksby), and ifr CIGS vis
(brief periods of lifr possible under stronger storm cores).

The cold front is expected to stall over far SE va NE nc on
Saturday before shifting southeast of the area late Saturday
night. Overall, sfc high pressure builds across the midwest as
an upper low sits over the mid atlantic coast through at least
Monday night before shifting ewd and away from the coast.

Showers storms will be focused along the coast with more widely
scattered storms possible farther inland due to elevated lift
present with the upper low. Precip chances expected to wane late
Saturday night into Sunday as the front gets shunted farther se.

Once again, primary threats from any thunderstorms Sat sat night
will be moderate to heavy rainfall, locally strong wind gusts,
and frequent lightning. With rainfall intensity waning, any
brief cig vis reductions will likely be MVFR.

Marine
Relatively quiet in the near term for the marine area, some
enhancement of the winds with showers tstms with brief gusts to
20-25 kt, but outside of any convection winds are mainly 15 kt
or less. Similar conditions through today into this evening
with S SW winds mainly 10-15 kt outside of convection, slowly
shifting to the W NW late tonight early sat. Seas avg 2-4 ft and
bay waves up to 2 ft.

The main story continues to be a strong cold frontal passage
sat Sat night (by mid summer standards). Latest nam GFS ecwmf gem
have now trended much closer with respect to timing and the
overall position of the primary features, lending to increasing
confidence in the marine forecast. At least SCA headlines will
be needed, but given that it will be a late 3rd 4th period (and
beyond) event, its too early to issue any SCA headlines with the
morning package. Did issue a gale watch for coastal waters N of
cape charles for late Sat sat night given an area of 850 mb
u-anomaly (easterly) winds of 4 std dev from nj to the delmarva.

If it does occur this would be of the marginal gale variety
(i.E. Sustained winds 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt). In any
event, a decent surged noted to develop by Sat aftn from N to s
across the waters as sfc low deepens along just off the delmarva
coast, followed by strong caa, especially Sat night. Seas build
to 7-10 ft for coastal waters by Sat night sun, with 4-5 ft
waves for the bay.

Conditions slowly improve Sun night Monday, but ongoing sca's
will persist due to lingering NE swell will likely result in
marine issues through at least late Mon or tue.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels have slowly diminished with no additional
statements needed. However, at least minor flooding may be
possible Sunday Mon along the coast and in the lower bay with
the strong N NE flow behind the departing sfc low and associated
cold front.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for mdz021>025.

Nc... None.

Va... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for vaz064-075>078-084>086-099-517>522.

Marine... Gale watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd
short term... Bmd
long term... Mpr
aviation... Bmd
marine... Lkb
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 22 mi44 min S 12 G 13 80°F 80°F1009.4 hPa
44089 24 mi62 min 74°F2 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi44 min SSE 7 G 8.9 79°F 80°F1009.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi44 min S 14 G 17 1010.1 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 37 mi32 min S 9.7 G 12 81°F 1009.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 39 mi44 min S 4.1 G 6 80°F 82°F1008.9 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 44 mi44 min S 7 G 9.9 77°F 73°F1009.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi44 min S 7 G 8.9
OCSM2 45 mi182 min 2 ft
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 47 mi44 min ENE 7 G 8 79°F 83°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi44 min S 6 G 8 78°F 1009.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi44 min 85°F 84°F1009.9 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA14 mi68 minSW 68.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F82%1009.4 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA19 mi67 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F75°F81%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13S11S14S15
G21
S13S13S11S8S10S9S8S8N8
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SE6SE6SW6SW9S5SW4S5S6W3S12SW6
1 day agoE10E11E9E9E9E7E8E7SE7E6SE7SE7S6S7SE5S5S6S6S3S8S9S9S12S12
2 days agoNW9NW10N9NE9E9NE8E12NE10NE11E9E8E5E6E4E3CalmE4E5CalmCalmE3NE5--SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Saxis, Starling Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Saxis
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:22 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:21 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:55 PM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:54 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.81.52.22.52.42.21.81.30.70.30.10.10.51.21.92.42.52.42.11.71.20.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ape Hole Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Ape Hole Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:25 PM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.61.21.92.32.52.31.91.40.80.3000.30.91.62.22.52.52.21.81.20.70.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.