Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saxis, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:48PM Monday April 23, 2018 7:08 PM EDT (23:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:08PMMoonset 1:37AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 318 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Through 7 pm..SE winds 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Scattered showers late.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Tue night..SE winds 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot late. Rain.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ600 318 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered just off the new england coast through tonight. Low pressure will track northeast up and along the east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxis, VA
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location: 37.92, -75.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231948
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
348 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered just off the northeast and mid
atlantic coast through tonight. Low pressure will track across
the tennessee valley tonight, eventually lifting northeast up
and along the carolina coast Tuesday through Wednesday.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

latest sfc analysis shows ~1031+ mb high pressure centered just
offshore of the northeast new england coast. To the west, closed
upper low continues to gradually weaken as it drifts e-ne across
the mid-south toward the ohio river valley. A ~1010 mb low
pressure W tn SW ky. Pressure gradient continues to tighten
between these to features, and we're noting some breezy
conditions on e-se flow this afternoon. Regional radar mosaic
showing broad swath of light showers, owing to a narrow zone of
increasing moisture flux pw ahead of tn valley system. To this
point, dry low-levels have kept a lid on pops across the local
area. However, have allowed for some low pops this evening well
inland, as better lift moisture begins to nudge up into our sw
zones. Temperatures in the u60s to l70s have stabilized with
overcast mid-high clouds pushing in from the carolinas, and
temps should slowly drop off into this evening.

As upper low trundles east tonight, favorable low-level
moisture-transport axis nudges closer to the local area after
06z into Tuesday morning. This will result in showers becoming
more widespread late tonight across the local area from SW to ne,
eventually reaching the northern neck and eastern shore into
Tuesday morning. Pops ramp up to categorical south of i64
tonight Tuesday morning, with high end chc to likely pops to the
north. Lows tonight upr 40s NW to mid 50s se.

Tue looks breezy and wet, courtesy of strong (albeit slightly
weakening) onshore flow and upper forcing. Still appears enough
lift moisture for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, with
greatest concern closest to best moisture flux pw along coastal
se va and NE nc. Longer-duration stratiform rainfall should
keep instability to a minimum, and thus concern for late-day
t-storms is relatively low, even as warm front lifts across se
tier of counties tomorrow afternoon. That said, some
convectively-driven heavy rainfall gusty winds are a concern
late tomorrow afternoon and evening, and will note this
potential in the hwo. Event total QPF 1-2". Highs Tue upr 50s nw
to mid 60s se.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

surface low will slide across NE nc SE va coastal plain Tuesday
night, with pcpn briefly tapering off as drier air nudges in
from the se. Will maintain shower wording overnight (categorical
to likely across the north), as the upper low opens up and
continues to slowly lift across the mid-atlantic region. Mainly
cloudy and mild with early morning low temps from upper 50s to
low 60s.

Drier, albeit with lingering clouds for Wednesday. The weakening
upper low lifts across the northeast, as a northern stream
shortwave drops in from the eastern great lakes. Certainly not
another washout of a day, but there should be enough remnant
lift moisture present to maintain shower wording, likely across
the north. Slightly milder with highs back into the u60s to low
70s.

Drying out Wednesday night and Thursday. Could sneak out a few
afternoon showers across the se, as yet another southern stream
shortwave drops across the tn valley. Majority of shower
activity should hold off until Friday, but a slight chance for
showers has been included for now across the southern tier of
the local area per decent model agreement. Highs Thursday to
range through the 60s.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 345 pm edt Sunday...

a couple of S w's progged to round the base of the long wave trof
and pass across the SRN mid atlantic states. Models differ a
bit with the first system late thurs night and fri. GFS wetter
and a bit farther north while the ECMWF has a more southerly
track with the best lift across the carolinas. Will split the
difference and go with chc showers for now. Second one appears
to be along a weak frontal passage sat. Limited moisture noted
here so went with slight chc late day pops for now. High
pressure builds into the area from the NW Sun into mon.

Highs mid 60s to lwr 70s except upr 60s to mid 70s mon. Lows mid 40s
to lwr 50s except 50 to 55 mon.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
As of 140 pm edt Monday...

vfr conditions to begin the 18z TAF period, with bkn to ovc
high and mid level cloudiness ahead of the system approaching
from the sw. E-se 10-15 kt this aftn will diminish this evening,
before increasing early Tue morning. Bkn-ovc mid to high cloud
deck will eventually lower late this afternoon and evening as
rain approaches from the sw. Deteriorating conditions after 06z
tonight, W rain chances increase during the overnight period as
well as CIGS lowering into the MVFR range after midnight, first
across ric ecg, eventually reaching phf orf later Tue morning,
then sby by midday Tuesday.

Broad swath of rain pushes across the region Tuesday and Tuesday
night, with flight restrictions throughout the day at all
terminals. Restrictions will likely last through ~15-18z wed
before conditions slowly improve during the day.

East winds increase to between 15-20 kt (gusts to ~25 kt) at
orf phf sby ecg during Tue and last through 00z wed. Slightly
lower winds (e at 10-15 kt) expected at ric during this
timeframe. Winds decrease after 00z Wed and turn to the SW by
wed afternoon.

Marine
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

high pressure centered over southern new england this afternoon will
push further out to sea tonight and Tuesday. Meanwhile... Low
pressure slowly crosses the tn valley, with a secondary low
developing along the nc coast late Tuesday. East winds 10-15 kt this
afternoon will continue through tonight. Waves on the bay build to 2-
3 ft tonight; seas 2-3 ft this afternoon build to 3-4 ft north and 4-
6 ft south by late tonight. East to southeast winds ramp up quickly
on tues due to a tightening of the pressure gradient. Wind speeds 15-
25 kt with gust up to 30 kt. There could be a few gusts to 35 kt
across the southern waters nearest the coastal low. However, not
expecting 35+kt winds to be widespread enough to warrant a gale
warning. Seas are expected to reach 6-10 ft by tues evening; waves 3-
5 ft, except up to 6 ft at the mouth of the bay. Winds waves seas
diminish subside Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the
pressure gradient relaxes. Scas are currently in effect for all
local waters beginning late tonight and lasting through Tuesday.

Scas will last into Wednesday for the coastal waters due to seas
remaining elevated. Have also issued a high surf advisory for obx
currituck as nearshore waves expected to reach 8-10 ft.

Broad low pressure lifts north of the region during Wednesday with
ssw winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night into
thurs morning. Seas over the coastal waters should fall below 5 ft
Thursday morning. After a brief lull midweek the next low pressure
system then impacts the region Friday Saturday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... High surf advisory from noon Tuesday to 5 am edt Wednesday for
ncz102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am to 11 pm edt Tuesday for
anz635>638.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Tuesday to noon edt Wednesday
for anz634.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Tuesday to 1 am edt Wednesday
for anz630>633.

Small craft advisory from 5 am Tuesday to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 2 am Tuesday to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mas mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mas mam
marine... Jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 22 mi51 min ESE 11 G 16 56°F 60°F1029.7 hPa
44089 24 mi39 min 50°F2 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi51 min SE 14 G 16 59°F 62°F1029.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi51 min ESE 17 G 21 1029.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi39 min S 5.8 G 7.8 57°F 1030.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 37 mi39 min SE 12 G 14 57°F 1030.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 39 mi51 min S 8.9 G 13 60°F 57°F1029.1 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 44 mi51 min SSE 6 G 7 53°F 51°F1030.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi51 min SSE 12 G 13
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 47 mi51 min SSE 15 G 18 58°F 54°F1029.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi51 min S 15 G 17 57°F 1029.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi51 min 63°F 59°F1030.1 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA14 mi75 minSE 1210.00 miFair59°F37°F44%1029.6 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA19 mi74 minESE 610.00 miFair60°F39°F47%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE7SE6SE5S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE8E8SE11SE14SE13SE13SE16SE14SE14
G20
SE12SE13
1 day agoS9SW8SW7SW5S4SW4W3CalmCalmW4W5CalmCalmW3E9NE8E8SE9S12SE10SE9SE9SE8SE7
2 days agoN3CalmSE4S4CalmCalmNW4N6N5N6N6N4N4N4N4E73SE7S10S10S11S12S10S11

Tide / Current Tables for Saxis, Starling Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Saxis
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:02 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.30.71.322.42.52.42.11.71.20.70.30.20.40.81.41.92.22.221.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Ape Hole Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Ape Hole Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:26 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:26 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:23 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.20.51.11.72.22.52.42.21.81.30.80.40.20.20.51.11.622.22.11.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.