Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 8:54 PM   Moonset 5:51 AM

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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 319 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Through 7 pm - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Sat night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft after midnight. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sun night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Mon - SW winds 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.

ANZ600 319 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
last night's cold front is well south of local waters this afternoon. High pressure builds north of the local waters today into Friday before moving offshore this weekend with elevated winds, waves, and seas expected.

FXUS61 KAKQ 251925 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 325 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Strong high pressure will anchor itself over the Northeast through Friday, before shifting offshore this weekend. A significant warm up begins Sunday and last through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Strong 1031mb high pressure is centered over Lake Ontario this afternoon. Meanwhile, what remains of the cold front that passed through the area yesterday and last night is now well off the Southeast coast. What we are left with is decent onshore winds across the mid-Atlantic this afternoon, which has caused considerable cloud cover from roughly the I-64 corridor on north and east to the coast. In addition, temps are much lower today than they were yesterday, generally in the 50s near the coast to nr 70 over south-central VA. For the most part, am expecting this onshore flow to persist tonight although it will be weakening. Clouds will be stubborn to break up overnight and am expecting low clouds to persist into Friday morning. The only exception may be the lower MD Eastern Shore where clouds should begin to break prior to sunrise. It will be a chilly night with lows in the low/mid 40s inland, with mid to upper 40s at the coast. Inland portions of the lower Maryland Eastern Shore should see clearing overnight and with decoupling winds, could see lows in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning. This could result in patchy frost in typically cooler, more sheltered areas, but don't think it will be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure will settle over New England on Friday, keeping a weaker onshore flow regime in place. This portends another cool day Friday, with highs similar to those of today (50s at the coast, low to mid 60s inland). Look for a mostly sunny sky near the coast and a partly to mostly cloudy sky across the Piedmont. It will be a little bit milder Friday night as the airmass modifies, with lows staying in the mid 40s inland.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

A high amplitude upper ridge axis will be in place over the eastern seaboard to begin the day on Saturday, with surface high pressure settling in just off the New England/northeast coast.
Meanwhile, a low pressure center will weaken as it drifts north across the upper midwest, sending a warm front across the Ohio River Valley and into the northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning. It may extend just far enough south to give us a slight chance of a rain shower, particularly across the northwest section of the CWA Elsewhere, expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky and slightly higher temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees inland, and in the low to mid 60s along the coast.

As high pressure builds offshore and settles in the western Atlantic late in the weekend through early next week, expect temperatures to quickly trend back up above normal through the period; highs jump into the 70s along the coast to low 80s inland on Sunday, with highs in the mid to upr 80s for most locations away from the immediate coast on Monday through Wednesday, before the upper ridge finally starts breaking down by the middle of next week. The next front approaches from the west Mon/Tue next week. Our next chance for showers and isolated storms will be possible with the frontal passage itself by Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Onshore flow will cause low stratus (MVFR CIGS) to linger at all terminals through tonight. However, the lower CIGS should begin to lift/clear at KSBY after 07z. Due have a period of IFR CIGS at KECG from 00Z-10Z Fri as model guidance indicates the worst conditions to be there. MVFR stratus is expected to persist through late Fri morning (14-15z) before lifting. ENE winds will continue to gust 20-25 kt KSBY/KORF/KECG through 22Z before lessening.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals Friday afternoon through the weekend.

MARINE
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect for the lower bay, lower James, Currituck Sound, and all coastal water zones

- A prolonged period of elevated seas/waves due to onshore flow is expected into Friday night.

Large high pressure situated over the NE CONUS is building in over the local area this afternoon as last night's cold front pushes south and away from the area. There is enough of a pressure gradient between these features to allow for gusty onshore winds today.
Latest obs show NE winds of 10-15kt in the upper bay and upper rivers with 15-20kt elsewhere. Buoy obs show seas N of the NC/VA border in the 5-7ft range and 4-5ft off the NC coast. Winds will gradually diminish to 10-15kt in the bay/rivers and ~15kt over the coastal waters through the evening and overnight as the pressure gradient slackens. These conditions are expected to continue through the day Friday, then diminishing further Friday night. Continuous onshore flow means that seas will be slow to comes down under 5ft.
Therefore, SCAs for the coastal waters (and mouth of the bay) likely continue into late Friday evening.

Regarding the rest of the forecast period, high pressure will build into the area this weekend before being suppressed to the south later in the week. Onshore flow persists through Sat as the high will be centered to the N. As the high pushes offshore and then south, the winds become southerly Sun, then SW Mon-Wed, at 10-15kt.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to last into the weekend. Mainly nuisance flooding is possible across the lower bay, James River, VA Atlantic- facing beaches, eastern Currituck County, and Dorchester County with tonight's high tide. As such, Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for these locations. Locally minor flooding is possible along the S/W portion of the James River during this evening's high tide due to a favorable fetch of swell given NE winds. Smithfield will likely reach minor flood stage (potentially high-end minor) with Sewell's Point also showing the potential for reaching minor flood stage. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for these areas. Additionally, will need to monitor Lewisetta as the NE winds may allow the tidal anomalies to rise higher than expected (current forecast keeps them below minor flood stage).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ089-093-095>097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.

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Saxis, Starling Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Ape Hole Creek
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Thu -- 01:56 AM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:52 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:40 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ape Hole Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

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