Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:11PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:55 AM EDT (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 5:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 643 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight, then becoming nw late. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 643 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A weak warm front lifting north this morning as high pressure becomes anchored off the southeast and mid atlantic coast through early next week. The next cold front crosses the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. High pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191042
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
642 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
A warm front lifts north of the area later today as high pressure
becomes centered off the southeast coast. A cold front crosses the
region Monday night. High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 330 am edt Sunday...

first off, will keep chc pops across the lwr md ERN shore for the
next few hrs due to the weakening complex currently moving through
that area. In addition, may have some ptchy fog stratus in some
places toward sunrise.

Latest msas has high pressure off the new england coast as well
as near the fla panhandle. In btwn, a frontal boundary remains
nearly stnry just west of the ches bay. Models show the frontal
boundary slowly moving nne as a warm front later today as the
high moves farther off the new england coast. This will put the
area in the warm sector dominated by the SRN high.

Once again, short range high res data offer up different solutions
wrt any convection that develops today. Will be watching two areas,
the first one with the advancing warm front mainly E of i-95 where
data does show enough wind moisture convergence for sct storms to
fire up on aftr 18z. The second will be across the nwrn zones where
some of the convection that pops over the blue ridge drifts se. Will
maintain the low chc pops across the ERN two-thirds of the local area,
although coastal beach areas may be saved from the convection due to
local sea-breezes. The activity across the NW is where SPC has
issued a marginal slght risk for the ptntl for large
hail damaging wind gusts with any strong storm that dvlps.

Appears the best support for svr tstms today remains across nrn
va. Will highlight this in the hwo.

Another summer-like day under pt to mstly sunny skies. Highs upr 80s-
lwr 90s west of the bay, in the 80s near the water, 75-80 beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday night
As of 330 am edt Sunday...

any on-going convection weakens dissipates after sunset with loss
of heating. Will carry lw chc pops thru midnite across the ne, otw
a warm and humid nite ahead. Lows 65-70.

Monday starts off mstly sunny, then becomes pt sunny with chc late
day eve convection tracking nw-se ahead and along a cold front that
is progged to push offshore arnd 06z. Models show limited moisture
for this front to tap, so will carry low chc pops attm. Remaining
hot ahead of the front with highs upr 80s-lwr 90s except low-mid 80s
at the beaches. Decreasing clouds and turning cooler Mon nite. Lows
upr 50s NW to mid 60s se.

Sunny cooler Tue as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs
mid 70s north to lwr 80s south. Mstly clr comfy Tue nite. Lows low-
mid 50s north to upr 50s-lwr 60s south.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 330 am edt Sunday...

an upper-level ridge centered over the SE us will dominate the weather
pattern for much of the extended forecast, bring hot and dry conditions.

Wednesday will be the beginning of the warming as a high pressure NE of
the area moves well off of the new england coast. Areas near the coast
will remain in the 70s with an onshore flow, while inland areas will
reach around 80.

Pops of 20-30% we added for Thursday for an slight chance of a showers
or thunderstorms as a disturbance moves off the nj DELMARVA coast. Highs
will be near 90 inland and low mid 80s for hampton roads and the eastern
shore, with lows in the 60s.

Friday and Saturday will be the hottest days of the week. The upper-level
high will build northeast over the mid-atlantic and the sfc flow will be
out of nw. With the ridge and downsloping, highs will easily reach the mid
90s, especially in the richmond metro although heat index values may not be
much higher than the actual temp given dp temps in the low-mid 60s. Highs
will get to near 90 at the va and nc beaches and inland eastern shore.

Temperatures at night will not cool off much, lows will be around 70.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
As of 200 am edt Sunday...

vfr conditions are expected through the forecast period, although
kept some ptchy MVFR fog and sct st along coastal TAF sites toward
sunrise based on some increase in low-level moisture due to the
light onshore flow. Added vcsh at sby for the activity popping up
ahead of the complex moving across NRN va erly this morn. A warm
front lifts nne of the area later today. This could spark off an
isltd TSTM across the north east after 18z, but not enuf confidence
to include thunder at any TAF site attm. Winds become south 10-15 kts
today.

Outlook...

a stronger SW wind for Mon with late day nite tstms possible ahead
of a cold front. Winds shift to the N Mon night into tue... And will
be fairly strong for a brief period along the coast through midday tue.

Marine
As of 330 am edt Sunday...

clockwise flow around a surface high south of CAPE cod is leading to
south and southeast winds ~10 knots this morning across the marine
zones. Seas offshore are 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves in the bay.

The pressure gradient between high pressure offshore and strong low
pressure over the great lakes will allow southeast winds to increase
after noon today. Generally expecting sustained winds around 15
knots with gust approaching 20 knots in the bay, especially at
elevated sensors. Waves briefly build to 2-3 ft while seas offshore
are 2-3 ft S and 3-4 ft n. This event looks to be pretty marginal
and of relatively short duration so will hold off on any sca
headlines with this package. Winds become south and southwest 10-15
knots by Monday morning as a trailing trough cold front from parent
low pressure over the northeast approaches the local area. Ssw winds
10-15 knots in the bay and 15-20 knots offshore will stretch into
Monday evening before the cold front crosses the waters from NW to
se. Models continue to show general agreement regarding a
northwesterly surge of 15-20 knot winds behind the front early
Tuesday morning before decreasing to 10-15 knots by Tuesday
afternoon. Waves will build to 2-3 ft in the bay with 4-5 ft
seas N and 3-4 ft seas s.

Southerly flow returns for the second half of the week with strong
high pressure in control of the local weather.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 645 am edt Sunday...

a few spots in the bay may see water levels approach or slightly
exceed minor flooding (mainly bishops head) with the high tide
cycle tonight.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Cp
aviation... Mpr
marine... Rhr
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi56 min 62°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi38 min S 4.1 G 6 65°F 71°F1017.6 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi44 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 64°F1019.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi44 min ESE 12 G 13 67°F 69°F1017.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi38 min SE 12 G 14 1018 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi66 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 62°F 59°F2 ft1019.4 hPa (+1.5)61°F

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi62 minE 48.00 miOvercast66°F64°F93%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW5E7NE14E11E11E11E11E10E7E8E8E8SE5S5SE6SE6SE10S7SE4SE3S6SE6E4
1 day agoS6S7S8S8SW11
G19
S11S10S11S10S8S65W4CalmSW3CalmSW3W6W4NW6SW8W3W4W3
2 days agoW8W6W7N8NW4Calm4S9SE12S8S11S10S8S6S10S8S8S8S7S6S4S6S6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Island
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Sun -- 05:06 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:21 AM EDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:42 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.40.2-0-0.1-00.20.50.80.90.90.80.60.40.20.1-000.30.60.91.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for George Island Landing, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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George Island Landing
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Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:49 AM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:14 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-00.10.30.50.60.70.60.50.30.20-000.20.40.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.