Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:35PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:59 PM EDT (16:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:11AMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1031 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of today..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers through the night.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain positioned in the western atlantic today. A cold front will approach from pennsylvania Tuesday, then stall over the waters during the middle of the week. The front may finally push to the south Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181632
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1232 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the coast through Tuesday.

A frontal boundary drops into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, then stalls across the region through the end of the
week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1230 pm edt Monday...

the fog has dissipated with the low sc scattering out early this
aftrn. A weak sfc trof is located across the se. Sct-bkn cu
developing across the area with the high res data showing some
sea-breeze convection developing in combo with the weak trof.

Thus, pops confined to the sern zones. Temps already in the upr
80s-lwr 90s and should top out in the low-mid 90s. Heat index
values btwn 100-104 so no advsry needed.

Dry wx for tonight with low temps mainly in the mid 70s.

The heat will peak tomorrow, with at least some SRN areas
needing an advsry.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday
As of 345 am edt Monday...

a frontal boundary will be approaching from the north tue,
leading to better chances for rain over the short term period
than previous days. Pops are in the 30-50% over northern areas
during the aftn tue. Some strong to severe storms are psbl as
well given the already high CAPE environment and increasing 0-6
km bulk shear to 25-30 kt. With similar temps Tue as today and
slightly higher dewpoints, a heat advisory may be need
especially over southern areas with heat indices reaching around
105. Rain chances increase into Tue night, with a more
widespread shra TSTM scenario shaping up for Wed with the
aforementioned sfc boundary stalling over the area. Heat indices
expected to MAX out in the 100-104 range most areas wed.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 400 pm edt Sunday...

the upper level ridge is forecast to shift southward and break
down late Wednesday through the end of the work week with a
weak cold front potentially sliding through the region late
Thursday into Friday. Model guidance also continues to show
abundant moisture will be in place throughout the region with
gfs pw values around 2.0" late Wednesday into the Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into at least
Thursday in this setup. It is still too early to pin down the
exact timing rain amounts, so maintained high end chance pops
Wednesday night and Thursday.

The frontal boundary moves just to the south of the region by
Friday leading to drier and slightly cooler conditions. An upper
level low tracks across the central us to the great lakes by
next weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as this
system tracks to the north.

Above average temperatures will continue throughout the extended
period. Highs are expected to top out in the middle to upper 80s
on Thursday Friday and will be dependent on any rain chances.

Slightly warmer for the second half of the extended period with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for Saturday and Sunday.

Overnight lows will also remain mild through the period with
temperatures generally ranging from near 70 to the mid 70s.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 630 am edt Monday...

lifr conditions to start off the 12z TAF period over the lwr
eastern shore, with improving conditions at ksby later this
morning. Elsewhere, low CIGS vsbys psbl for another hr or two
at kric and kphf, again improving thereafter. Winds turn to the
s SW but remain below 10 kt today and Tuesday. Isolated
afternoon showers tstms are possible over mainly SE va NE nc
today, with a better chance of tstms late Tuesday through
Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region.

Marine
As of 1105 am edt Monday...

winds become sse this afternoon and linger ~10kt. Winds veer
around from s-se to the SW and increase to 10-15 kt tonight and
Tuesday, in response to tightening gradient as front approaches
from the north. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-3 ft.

Weakening frontal boundary sags south over the waters late Tuesday
into Wednesday morning, briefly turning winds to the nne. The
meandering front slowly lifts back north on Wednesday, with onshore
flow gradually becoming ssw late Wednesday and early Thursday. Front
drops back south across the waters on Thursday, with a longer
duration of ne-e winds looks to occur for much of Thursday into
Friday, but with winds no higher than 10 kt.

Climate
As of 345 am edt Monday...

hottest airmass of the season so far is expected today tue. Record
highs are listed below for reference:
* site today 6 18 Tue 6 19
* ric: 100 (1970) 103 (1944)
* orf: 99 (1944) 101 (1944)
* sby: 98 (2014) 96 (1993)
* ecg: 100 (2011) 100 (1944)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mas
near term... Mpr
short term... Mas
long term... Ajb
aviation... Mas
marine... Mam
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi41 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 82°F 80°F1016.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi47 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi41 min E 2.9 G 4.1 77°F 80°F1017.6 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi89 min N 1 93°F 1019 hPa91°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi65 minVar 39.00 miFair87°F72°F61%1017.9 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi64 minSW 410.00 miFair88°F72°F60%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4W8W6W75W6CalmNE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE33
1 day agoS454SW7NW6NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago565N63CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm44SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
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Mon -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:28 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.41.91.40.90.50.30.20.71.72.6332.72.21.71.10.70.300.20.91.92.5

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:07 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:34 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:52 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.31.71.20.70.30.20.51.42.333.23.12.62.11.50.90.40.10.10.61.52.42.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.