Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:26PM Thursday March 23, 2017 6:00 PM EDT (22:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:21AMMoonset 1:54PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 431 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect Friday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Showers likely through the night.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 431 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure overhead this afternoon will slide offshore tonight, allowing a warm front to lift through the area on Friday. A low pressure system will then approach the area Sunday, and move through Sunday night into Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Friday night and again Sunday and Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 232007
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
407 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure overhead will slowly slide offshore
tonight and shift farther eastward on Friday. A gradual warming
trend then begins Friday through the upcoming weekend. A more
active weather pattern is anticipated Sunday night into the
first half of next week.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
Canadian sfc high pressure sits overhead late this aftn and is
expected to slowly drift offshore tonight. Continued clear skies
overnight with light onshore winds. Lows below freezing inland
areas/md lower eastern shore (28-31f) and in the mid 30s far
se va/ne nc coastal areas.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/
Dry with a gradual warming trend Fri through Sat as canadian
high pressure continues to push ewd/offshore. A warm front lifts
nw of the area overnight... Allowing warm air advection to
commence on Fri with winds becoming more s-sw. Temperatures are
expected to rebound to readings at to slightly above normal due
to breezy SW winds gusting to around 20-25 mph inland va/ne nc
and up to 25-30 mph md/va eastern shore. Expect highs in the
mid 60s most inland areas (mid 50s to lower 60s beaches and
md/va eastern shore). Overall conditions will be dry as
mid-upper level ridging and decent subsidence aloft dominates
(i.E. Best shower chances are along/north of the mason-dixon
line INVOF the warm front). Otherwise, mid-high clouds should
stream across the region (especially north) within relatively
flat, upper level flow through Fri night. Lows around 50f.

Meanwhile, low pressure exits the intermountain west Fri and
tracks into the WRN midwest Fri night. As the low struggles to
cross the mid-mississippi valley sat/sat night, a secondary warm
front extending from the low is expected to lift north through
the area Sat aftn. This will allow for additional warming in
continued SW sfc winds and a noticeable influx of moisture as
dewpoints increase to around 50f. Although clouds should clear
out briefly across the SE half of the area during the day (as is
typical with a warm frontal passage), aftn cumulus development
and increasing cirrus from the west will keep partly sunny
wording in the forecast... Mostly cloudy far NRN counties invof
the warm front. Maintained highs for Sat in the in the mid 70s
inland (upper 60s to lower 70s beaches). Continued warm sat
night with lows running about 10-15 degrees above normal. Lows
in the lower 50s most areas (upper 40s possible atlantic beaches
of md/va eastern shore).

Weakening sfc low in the great lakes finally gets kicked ene by
another low pressure system exiting the intermountain west on
sun. Negative tilting of the mid-upper lows will slow the
advancing (and weakening) sfc cold front associated with the
great lakes low. This will also slow the arrival of incoming
precip into the eastern piedmont until late Sun aftn (or even
possibly not arriving until early evening). High temps expected
to reach the lower 70s most inland areas (60s beaches). A
combination of instability parameters are not lining up for
favorable/widespread thunderstorm development Sun aftn/early
evening. Best factors to overcome the meager instability will be
the presence of weak seabreeze boundaries with se-s sfc winds,
and a veering wind profile with height (albeit weak 0-6km shear
of roughly 30kt). Taking this into consideration and knowing
that the region will be well within a warm sector, cannot
completely rule out diurnally-driven thunderstorms in the aftn.

Have therefore added a slight chance for thunder into the
forecast.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/
Medium range period features a mild period, courtesy of surface
high pressure oriented just off the mid-atlantic/southeast
coast. Main weather features of note a couple of mid/upper level
lows, which will bring scattered light precipitation late in the
weekend and again by Tuesday. The first of these disturbances
traverses across the central/southern plains on Saturday,
dampening as it crosses e- NE into the ohio valley and eastern
great lakes on Sunday and into the northeast on Monday. This
feature will allow for some isolated to scattered showers Sunday
night into early on Monday. QPF will be limited with this
feature. Despite increasing pw values, minimal instability and
steadily weakening dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off
to our n-nw. Therefore, high end chc to likely pop is in place
for Sunday night over our western/nw tier of the area for
sct/numerous showers. Region remains mild in the warm sector
with southerly flow bringing highs in the upper 50s to 60s
northern neck and md lower eastern shore... With upper 60s to
low 70s inland for early next week.

For the middle of next week... Attention turns to a second
southern stream disturbance, which is expected to track
east/northeastward from the ca coast... Across the plains and
mid-south late sat-early Monday. There remains some significant
disagreement with the gfs/ecmwf, with the ECMWF and its member
ensembles remaining more progressive and flatter. Will lean in
the ECMWF direction with the GFS parallel and GEFS seemingly
trending in this quicker direction as well. Still, this system
will be a bit stronger than the weekend system but it too will
weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the CONUS Monday
through early Tuesday. So while would translate to another
period of showers late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon,
system will again be progressive. Given the timing, will mention
slight chance of thunder Tuesday afternoon west of the bay.

Remaining mild, with highs in the 60s to near 70 eastern
shore... Mid 70s to near 80 south central va/interior NE nc.

Shortwave ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday.

Highs remain mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the
northern neck of va into md, with highs well into the 60s to mid
70s inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s
southern sections.

Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/
Canadian high pressure overhead will slowly slide offshore
tonight and shift farther eastward on Friday. Clear skies and
light, variable winds will be common areawide through tonight.

South to southwest winds on Friday become breezy with afternoon
gusts around 20-25 mph across inland va/ne nc and 25-30 mph
across the md/va eastern shore. Winds are expected to diminish
around sunset Friday evening. Breezy again on Saturday, however
afternoon gusts should only average around 20 mph. A warm front
lifts northwest of the mountains late tonight and another one
lifts through the region Saturday afternoon. Although weather
conditions will be dry, mid to high level clouds may stream
across the area (especially north of kric in vicinity of the
warm fronts).

A weakening low pressure system in the great lakes is expected
to bring a weakening surface cold front and associated showers
to the region late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Isolated,
diurnally-driven thunderstorms may be possible in this
timeframe. A more active weather pattern is anticipated during
the first half of next week.

Marine
Latest obs reflect northerly flow across the waters this
afternoon, with surface high pressure in place over the region.

Sca headlines have been dropped for all waters except for anz658
south of the va/nc border to currituck beach light through
23z/7pm edt. Seas have fallen off to 2-3 ft north, 3-4 ft
central waters, and 4-5 ft across the far southern coastal
waters.

Sfc high pres slides off the coast tonight through Friday...

with winds becoming SW Fri and lingering through sat. Pressure
gradient tightens tomorrow afternoon, with developing low
pressure over the plains. Southerly flow increasing to ~15 knots
by Friday afternoon. While nearshore winds will be elevated and
gusty tomorrow and Sat afternoons, given still cool water
temps... Will undercut guidance slightly and keep waters below
any SCA thresholds for now. The next front crosses the waters
early next week... W/ relatively benign marine conditions
expected over the weekend in ssw winds mainly AOB 15 kt. Seas
averaging 2-3 ft... Waves 1-2 ft.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd
short term... Bmd
long term... Mam
aviation... Bmd
marine... Mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi43 min E 5.1 G 6 45°F 47°F1033.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi43 min S 8 G 8.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi43 min SE 9.9 G 11 38°F 47°F1035 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi91 min E 2.9 47°F 1036 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair49°F10°F21%1034.9 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi66 minSSE 310.00 miFair50°F13°F23%1033.9 hPa

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
G16
N64N43N53CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE764--W7SE5SW44Calm
1 day agoNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5W3W3NW6NW5N8
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2 days agoSW4S3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE3S7S4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm6N85N734N3

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
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Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:58 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:19 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:50 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.21.82.22.42.321.51.10.70.40.40.51.11.82.32.52.52.21.81.30.90.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:48 AM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:13 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:58 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:05 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.72.22.52.62.41.91.40.90.50.40.50.91.62.22.62.72.62.21.71.20.70.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.