Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:27PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 12:29 AM EST (05:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:37AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 931 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Wednesday through Wednesday evening...
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely through the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers through the night.
ANZ500 931 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through Thursday before moving offshore Friday and Saturday. Small craft advisories may need to be extended Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240250
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
950 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
A cold front pushes farther offshore tonight. High pressure
becomes centered over the south central states Wednesday and
builds east into the local area for Thursday and Friday. The
highs slides off the coast for the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
The current surface analysis places 993mb low pressure over me,
with the surface cold front now pushing off the DELMARVA coast,
but still trailing back into far ERN nc. The center of the upper
level system is located over the saint lawrence valley of srn
qb. Temperatures this evening have dropped into the mid 40s to
low 50s from the piedmont to the lower md ERN shore, with
temperatures still in the mid 50s to near 60f for far SE va and
ne nc. Low pressure will continue to lift to the NE tonight and
the cold front will move farther offshore, with high pressure
over the central plains building into the deep south. The sky
will be clear overnight with temperatures steadily falling. Lows
by morning range from the lower 40s SE coast to the lower-mid
30s along west of i-95 and across the eastern shore.

Dry cooler for Wed with sfc high pressure centered over the
south central conus, building east to the gulf coast region by
aftn. Sunny in the morning, then some increase in clouds in the
aftn (though still partly-mostly sunny). Low level thicknesses
and 850mb temps support highs from the upper 40s near 50 f on
the ERN shore and mainly lower- mid 50s elsewhere. This matches
up well with met ecs guidance (mav appears too warm).

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
Gfs NAM continue to depict a fast moving upper trough swinging
through the region Wed night, and this will bring a few hrs of
partly mostly cloudy skies, with clearing after midnight. Lows
in the upper 20s-low 30s. Mainly sunny and a few degrees cooler
thu W highs from the low 40s NE to around 50 f south central
va interior NE nc. Lighter winds clear Thu night as the sfc high
becomes centered over the local area and will go on the cold
side of guidance with lows mainly in the 20s. Sunny, and turning
warmer Fri with highs upper 40s around 50f NE to the mid 50s w
of ches bay.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Overall the models continue to advertise a decent chance for more
significant rain on the coming weekend, but there are still some
pretty decent differences on timing and storm development that the
confidence on the amount of rain and the timing is still not
extremely high.

The extend period begins with high pressure in place across the
region, but the high has moved off the coast with the flow turning
more southerly to southwesterly. This should allow for modification
of temperatures Friday night with most locations staying above
freezing with readings in the mid to high 30s. The 12z GFS has
slowed compared to yesterdays forecast so it appears that dry
weather will persist with a good warm up in place. Have trended the
forecast a little warmer than much of the guidance toward the mex
values which are mainly in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

From Saturday night into Monday time frame, the models vary greatly
as far as timing and how much moisture is available based upon
whether the system phases or not. The GFS has kept the two stream
separate until the low is well out to sea, but the trend with it has
been to slowing. On the other hand the 00z ECMWF has been strong
and phased the low with the upper trough actually briefly getting a
negative tilt over the mid-atlantic states late on Sunday. Now the
12z ECMWF is not as strong and the phasing is weaker with the trough
remaining positively tilted. So this makes for quite a bit of
uncertainty with how much moisture and rain is possible. Right now
have the highest pops on Sunday into Sunday night as this is the
time period where the models do agree it will rain. The question
would be does it start earlier on Sat night or how long does it
linger into Monday. So have tried to hold on some lower pops on
both ends as the timing is uncertain. Have kept the mild
temperatures for the period however with the SW flow with lows in the
u40s - l50s and highs in the u50s - l60s.

By Monday night, cooler and drier weather is expected to return as
high pressure builds eastward into the region and this should
persist through mid week. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday
with highs in the mid - upper 40s and lows getting toward freezing
in the u20s- l30s.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Skies have mostly cleared out behind the front andVFR
conditions prevail at all the TAF sites. Some gusty w-nw winds
will continue for a couple of hours but should diminish through
the night. Sfc high pressure builds into the region through thu.

Marine
Late this aftn, a cold front was pushing to just west of the
ches bay. Southwest or west winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to
25 kt were still occurring right in advance of the front, and
scas will continue until 7 pm over the rivers ches bay and
currituck snd, and until 10 pm or midnight for the coastal
waters. Front will move out to sea during this evening early
tonight, with winds becoming west 5-15 kt.

West winds 5-15 kt on wed, will become northwest Wed night.

There is another surge of colder air late Wed night into thu
aftn, which will result in NW winds 10-20 kt with higher gusts
possible. Waves and seas may increase by a foot to 2 to 4 ft
with this surge thu. Conditions improve by fri, as high
pressure builds into and over the area.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz650-652-
654.

Synopsis... Lkb ajz
near term... Lkb ajz
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Ess
aviation... Lkb jef
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi42 min Calm G 1.9 41°F 38°F1011.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi42 min WNW 7 G 8
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi42 min WNW 5.1 G 6 46°F 40°F1011.9 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi60 min WSW 1 47°F 1013 hPa29°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi36 minW 410.00 miFair43°F27°F53%1012.8 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi55 minWNW 610.00 miFair40°F31°F72%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S10
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NW8NW5NW8NW10W4
1 day agoS6S6S4S4S3S5S6S6S7S6S7S7S11S7S8SE8S8S8S11S9S7S64S7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5S6S11S8S9S63SE4S6S6S6S7S5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:55 AM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:35 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.221.61.10.60.2-0.1-0.10.10.71.62.22.42.31.91.410.50.20.10.10.311.8

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:00 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:34 AM EST     2.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:50 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.321.40.90.3-0-0.1-00.41.22.12.52.62.31.81.20.70.30.100.20.71.52.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.