Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:00PM Saturday April 29, 2017 1:38 AM EDT (05:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:06AMMoonset 10:43PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1031 Pm Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain centered over bermuda into Tuesday. A cold front will cross the mid-atlantic Monday night with canadian high pressure then building over the area through Wednesday. A small craft advisory is likely Monday into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 290528
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
128 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure prevails off the southeast coast through the
weekend. A backdoor cold front will drop south across the northern
delmarva peninsula tonight then lift back north as a warm front
Sunday. The next cold front pushes across the region Monday night.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
Adjusted grids overnight based on the ifr stratus moving north
along the outer banks and the pesky stratus and fog at oxb.

Otw, high clouds will overspread the area from the north
associated with the convection along the frontal boundary ivof
mason dixon line. Lows in the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

Short term /6 am this morning through Monday/
Bermuda sfc high retrogrades towards the southeast coast over
the weekend, with stacked mid-high level high pressure
amplifying over the mid-atlantic region through Saturday.

Factoring in increasing dewpoints and decent south to southwest
winds during this time, warm temperatures can be expected. Highs
Saturday in the lower 90s inland (85-90f beaches). Local
climate sites may tie or break records tomorrow. See climate
section below for more detailed information. With the stacked
high overhead, precipitation will be very limited due to
downslope drying from south-southwest winds and strong
subsidence aloft, which will limit lift/instability potential
for convection or anything other than few-sct fair weather
cumulus clouds in the afternoon.

The warm front, which is associated with the southern plains
low, is expected to stall INVOF nrn va/mason-dixon line Saturday
night into Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will be
possible along/north of a line from caroline county to wallops
island Saturday evening. Any threat for rain ends thereafter due
to the boundary shifting northeast and lack of daytime heating
to support lift/convection. Meanwhile, mid-upper level high
pressure shifts eastward and away from the southeast coast late
Saturday night into Sunday, and temperatures will continue to be
very warm. Expect lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s (mid 60s
beaches), and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland (low-
mid 80s beaches due to a slightly more onshore wind direction).

Temps still in ballpark to tie or break records for maximum low
temperatures and could fall a few degrees short for high temp
records on Sunday. Again, see climate section below for more
detailed information.

The SRN plains low tracks nne into ia/mn/wi Sunday night into
Monday, and the strong cold front associated with it is expected
to track across the ohio valley on Monday... Approaching the mid
atlantic region. Slightly cooler Sunday night as high cirrus
streams into the area from the sw-w in southwest flow aloft.

Expect lows generally in the upper 60s (low-mid 60s beaches).

Winds ramp up by mid-late morning on Monday ahead of the
approaching front. South to southwest winds of 20-25 mph with
gusts of 30-35 mph should be anticipated. Models have
precipitation progged to arrive in far WRN portions of the cwa
in the afternoon. In reality, the orientation of the front and
subsequent upper level jet are oriented north to south, which
will likely result in a slower arrival time sometime Monday
evening. Can shore up better timing potential over the next few
model runs. Overall, the front is not expected to cross the
region until Monday night with more widespread showers/storms
anticipated. Pwats approach 1.50 inches by the time rain begins
and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall should occur. Wind
profiles are fairly unidirectional from southwest with low-level
veering with height. This would suggest that strong to locally
severe wind gusts will also be possible. Again, can shore up
details as Monday nears. Temperatures could prove to be tricky
as mid- high clouds increase from the sw-w as Monday progresses,
however ample mixing could negate any cooling effects from the
expected cloud cover. Kept temperatures warmer than model
guidance with highs in the mid-upper 80s (low-mid 80s beaches).

Long term /Monday night through Friday/
Cold front will move across the region then off the coast Mon night
into Tue morning, with at least sctd showers and tstms in
advance of the front. Weak high pressure will provide dry wx for
later Tue morning thru wed, as it slides fm the gulf coast
states to off the SE coast. Lows Mon night in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Highs on Tue in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows tue
night ranging thru the 50s into the lower 60s. Highs on wed
ranging thru the 70s to near 80. Low pressure will approach fm
the wsw late Wed night thru thu, then lifts just wnw of the area
during Fri while pushing a cold front into the region. Pops
will increase to high chc on thu, then high chc to likely pops
for Thu night and fri. Highs on Thu will range fm the upper 60s
to upper 70s. Lows Thu night will range fm the lower 50s to
lower 60s. Highs on Fri will range fm the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/
Watching MVFR-ifr st move north along the nc/va coast early this
morning. Thus, will have bkn-ovc CIGS at ecg/orf/phf through
12z or so. Otw, extensive ci shield spreading south across the
fa from convection to the north. South winds avgg arnd 10 kts
will likely prevent much fog development but guid does show some
MVFR vsbys at ric/sby towards daybreak.

Vfr conditions expected after 12z as the st burns off with only
sct-bkn ci and sct CU throughout the day. Ssw winds gusts btwn
15-20 kts.

Outlook... Mainly dry weather expected through the remainder of
the weekend, although some convection is possible across delaware
tonight along a backdoor cold front. Next frontal boundary late
Monday into Tuesday with possibility of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
No headlines in the short term tonight thru sun. High pressure
will set up off the SE coast for tonight into mon, providing ssw
winds 15 kt or less thru sun. A cold front will then approach fm
the west during mon, then moves acrs the area and off the coast
mon night into Tue morning. Stronger ssw winds expected late sun
night into Mon night, resulting in sca's over the waters. SW or
w winds and below SCA conditions expected behind the front for
tue and wed.

Hydrology
Cashie river at windsor dropped below flood stage early this
evening... And flood warning has been dropped. Have continued
flood advisory in mecklenburg county through tomorrow, with
vdot continuing to report numerous roads closed in the kerr dam
area, creating ongoing navigation concerns.

Climate
It still appears likely that richmond and norfolk will each end
the month with the warmest april on record. Very warm temperatures
expected through Sunday and an unseasonably warm april to date
should combine to push the april 2017 average temperature above
that which occurred in 1994. As noted below, both of the
previous records on the books were established in 1994. This
month's temperatures look to end up around one degree above
those values.

Average temperatures / record average temperature
through today 4/28/17:
apr 2017
avg temp record
location to date avg temp year
-------- -------- ------ ----
richmond 63.1 63.2 1994
norfolk 65.3 64.7 1994
*********************************************
record lows/highs for Saturday 4/29:
forecast record
location low low year
-------- -------- ------ ----
richmond 72 67 1956
norfolk 70 66 1981
salisbury 69 65 1974
forecast record
location high high year
-------- -------- ------ ----
richmond 93 93 1974
norfolk 91 92 1974
salisbury 90 89 1974
*********************************************
record lows/highs for april 30:
forecast record
location low low year
-------- -------- ------ ----
richmond 72 63 2014
norfolk 70 67 1994
salisbury 68 63 1983
forecast record
location high high year
-------- -------- ------ ----
richmond 91 94 1942
norfolk 88 93 1888
salisbury 86 86 1974

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Bmd
long term... Tmg
aviation... Mpr
marine... Tmg
hydrology... Akq
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi56 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 71°F1015.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi50 min SSE 7 G 7
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi50 min SSW 7 G 8 73°F 69°F1016.9 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi68 min S 1.9 78°F 1019 hPa71°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi44 minS 68.00 miFair74°F66°F79%1017.1 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi43 minS 810.00 miFair74°F68°F80%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6
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SW6SW3S3Calm--SW3W6CalmCalmE44SW5--S7S11S10S6CalmCalmCalm33S6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S46S7S8S11S11S10
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2 days ago45NW4NW6NW3NW3NW4NW53NW6W7W43CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
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Sat -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:53 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:54 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:38 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.510.60.30.10.41.32.43.13.43.12.621.40.90.50.1-00.41.32.32.82.9

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:15 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:32 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:09 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:17 PM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.30.80.40.10.30.9233.53.53.12.51.81.20.70.2-00.2122.73.13

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.