Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:54PM Monday April 23, 2018 10:50 PM EDT (02:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:15PMMoonset 1:44AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1032 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Diminishing to 5 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. An area of low pressure over the tennessee valley and southeast u.s. Will approach the region tonight and Tuesday, crossing the waters on Wednesday. High pressure will then move near the area Thursday. Another low pressure system may affect the waters by Friday and Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday and Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240026
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
826 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks across the tennessee valley tonight,
eventually lifting northeast up and along the carolina coast
Tuesday through Wednesday.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 830 pm...

fyi... Echoes moving north from the albemarle sound appear to be
chaff and not pcpn. Kakq cc scan seems to verify this.

Some -r across swrn zones this evening, with the latest high
res data holding off until after midnight before the pcpn
quickly spreads ne. Pops ramp up to categorical most areas
along and south of i64 by 12z, to slght chc across the lwr md
ern shore. Lows tonight upr 40s NW to mid 50s se.

Pvs dscn:
tue looks breezy and wet, courtesy of strong (albeit slightly
weakening) onshore flow and upper forcing. Still appears enough
lift moisture for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, with
greatest concern closest to best moisture flux pw along coastal
se va and NE nc. Longer-duration stratiform rainfall should keep
instability to a minimum, and thus concern for late-day
t-storms is relatively low, even as warm front lifts across se
tier of counties tomorrow afternoon. That said, some
convectively-driven heavy rainfall gusty winds are a concern
late tomorrow afternoon and evening, and will note this
potential in the hwo. Event total QPF 1-2". Highs Tue upr 50s nw
to mid 60s se.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

surface low will slide across NE nc SE va coastal plain Tuesday
night, with pcpn briefly tapering off as drier air nudges in
from the se. Will maintain shower wording overnight (categorical
to likely across the north), as the upper low opens up and
continues to slowly lift across the mid-atlantic region. Mainly
cloudy and mild with early morning low temps from upper 50s to
low 60s.

Drier, albeit with lingering clouds for Wednesday. The weakening
upper low lifts across the northeast, as a northern stream
shortwave drops in from the eastern great lakes. Certainly not
another washout of a day, but there should be enough remnant
lift moisture present to maintain shower wording, likely across
the north. Slightly milder with highs back into the u60s to low
70s.

Drying out Wednesday night and Thursday. Could sneak out a few
afternoon showers across the se, as yet another southern stream
shortwave drops across the tn valley. Majority of shower
activity should hold off until Friday, but a slight chance for
showers has been included for now across the southern tier of
the local area per decent model agreement. Highs Thursday to
range through the 60s.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 345 pm edt Sunday...

a couple of S w's progged to round the base of the long wave trof
and pass across the SRN mid atlantic states. Models differ a
bit with the first system late thurs night and fri. GFS wetter
and a bit farther north while the ECMWF has a more southerly
track with the best lift across the carolinas. Will split the
difference and go with chc showers for now. Second one appears
to be along a weak frontal passage sat. Limited moisture noted
here so went with slight chc late day pops for now. High
pressure builds into the area from the NW Sun into mon.

Highs mid 60s to lwr 70s except upr 60s to mid 70s mon. Lows mid 40s
to lwr 50s except 50 to 55 mon.

Aviation 01z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 8 pm...

vfr conditions start off the forecast period ahead of the system
approaching from the sw. Rain will overspread the region sw-ne
between 06z-12z with CIGS quickly lowering to MVFR along with
reduced vsbys in both rain fog. Ifr CIGS vsbys are a good bet
along with periods of mdt to lclly hvy rain bwtn 15z-21z before
the steadiest and heaviest pcpn moves ne. Gusty SE wind develop
along the SE coast with gusts btwn 20-30 kts tues. In addition,
models showing llws at 020 ft (btwn 40-50 kts) across sern taf
sites after 18z as the warm front tries to lift north.

Outlook...

reduced CIGS vsbys in rain fog cont across the region tues
night. Flight restrictions will likely last through ~15-18z wed
before conditions slowly improve during the day. Winds decrease
after 00z Wed and turn to the SW by Wed afternoon.

Marine
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

high pressure centered over southern new england this afternoon will
push further out to sea tonight and Tuesday. Meanwhile... Low
pressure slowly crosses the tn valley, with a secondary low
developing along the nc coast late Tuesday. East winds 10-15 kt this
afternoon will continue through tonight. Waves on the bay build to 2-
3 ft tonight; seas 2-3 ft this afternoon build to 3-4 ft north and 4-
6 ft south by late tonight. East to southeast winds ramp up quickly
on tues due to a tightening of the pressure gradient. Wind speeds 15-
25 kt with gust up to 30 kt. There could be a few gusts to 35 kt
across the southern waters nearest the coastal low. However, not
expecting 35+kt winds to be widespread enough to warrant a gale
warning. Seas are expected to reach 6-10 ft by tues evening; waves 3-
5 ft, except up to 6 ft at the mouth of the bay. Winds waves seas
diminish subside Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the
pressure gradient relaxes. Scas are currently in effect for all
local waters beginning late tonight and lasting through Tuesday.

Scas will last into Wednesday for the coastal waters due to seas
remaining elevated. Have also issued a high surf advisory for obx
currituck as nearshore waves expected to reach 8-10 ft.

Broad low pressure lifts north of the region during Wednesday with
ssw winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night into
thurs morning. Seas over the coastal waters should fall below 5 ft
Thursday morning. After a brief lull midweek the next low pressure
system then impacts the region Friday Saturday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... High surf advisory from noon Tuesday to 5 am edt Wednesday for
ncz102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am to 11 pm edt Tuesday for
anz635>638.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Tuesday to noon edt Wednesday
for anz634.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Tuesday to 1 am edt Wednesday
for anz630>633.

Small craft advisory from 5 am Tuesday to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 2 am Tuesday to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mas mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi50 min ESE 11 G 13 57°F 58°F1027.8 hPa (+0.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi50 min SE 15 G 16
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi50 min SE 14 G 16 56°F 56°F1028.6 hPa (+0.0)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi80 min SE 2.9 59°F 1029 hPa45°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi56 minENE 410.00 miFair58°F39°F50%1027.9 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi55 minE 510.00 miFair57°F35°F44%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE53--6S10--6SE7
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1 day agoE3E3SE5S53S4CalmE3CalmCalmS6S84Calm--S10Calm66E56
G17
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm36434433N4W63CalmCalmCalm3

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
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Mon -- 01:46 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:01 PM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:57 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.62.72.52.11.61.10.80.50.40.61.22.12.72.82.72.41.91.510.70.40.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
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Mon -- 01:25 AM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:21 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:40 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:12 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.82.82.521.410.60.40.511.82.6332.82.31.81.30.90.50.30.51.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.