Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
San Rafael, CA

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:04PM Monday September 24, 2018 11:10 AM PDT (18:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:18PMMoonset 5:26AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 857 Am Pdt Mon Sep 24 2018
Today..SW winds up to 10 kt...increasing to 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Thu..W winds up to 10 kt.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
PZZ500 857 Am Pdt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Split wind flow with light winds along the coast and breezy northwest winds in the outer waters. Winds will continue to diminish through the day but will remain locally breeze in the outer waters north of point reyes tonight. Light mixed swell, with a predominate short period northwest swell.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Rafael, CA
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location: 37.98, -122.47     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 241747
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1047 am pdt Mon sep 24 2018

Synopsis Warm high pressure will last at least through
Wednesday and possibly into Thursday. Cooling trend starts Friday
into Saturday as an upper low approaches.

Discussion As of 08:28 am pdt Monday... As noted on the
previous forecast discussion, the biggest weather impact to the
region today and Tuesday will be critical fire weather conditions
due to low humidity and increasing winds. Observations across
higher terrain this morning shows many locations in the single
digit relative humidity. Fortunately, winds are not overly strong
this morning, but still seeing some higher gusts. For what it's
worth the koak balloon sounding measured 3% at 850mb further
emphasizing the dry air mass. Red flag warnings remain in effect
through Tuesday 5 pm.

Completely on the flip side, morning visible satellite shows
widespread low clouds along the coast and locally inland,
especially monterey bay region. Ft ord profiler puts the marine
layer depth near 1k feet. Both monterey and salinas airports are
reporting vsby of 1 4 to 1 2 mile due to fog. We've also received
some reports of a chilly start to the day with lows in the mid to
upper 30s.

Lastly, the other weather impact for the week will be warmer
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Inland valleys will warm well
into the 90s, which is several degrees above normal for late
september.

Prev discussion As of 3:44 am pdt Monday... Red flag warning has
been posted for the north and east bay hills. Getting numerous
reports of rh values in the single digits and even below 5%.

Luckily winds remain fairly light but when rh values are this dry
it doesnt take much wind to get us into red flag territory.

Outside of our area but a new fire started overnight up in butte
county as the initial shot of north winds works their way down the
state and into the bay area. To be clear the conditions this
morning are mainly focused on the very low humidity. Tonight the
gradients tighten and we do expect a stronger burst of moderate
north to northeast winds in the hills. This will occur with more
widespread drying with the NAM model showing some 20 kt wind barbs
during the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday morning. This is not a
strong wind event. However the other factors such as fuel dryness,
low humidity and quite frankly climatology warrant the red flags.

In addition we match up with the other red flags across the
state.

In terms of the public forecast, this just all means sunny and
seasonably warm late sept weather for the bay area. Expecting
widespread readings in the 80s today and even some 90s well inland
and in favored downslope regions. Marching forward if anything
expect continued warming trend Tuesday and weds with warm days,
mild nights, offshore winds and little or no marine influence.

Most populated areas will see mild overnight lows with night time
radiative inversions setting up that will allow for night time
cooling.

A cut-off low will approach by late Thursday or Friday and at the
very least induce a noted cooling trend. MOS guidance and model
output has been oscillating on potential shower chances over the
north bay as this feature moves through. Believe its prudent at
this point to lean towards climatology. 00z ECMWF backed off big
time on precip into the bay area. 06z GFS is offering some even
more far-fetched scenarios with the secondary trough bringing rain
to norcal while the remnants of tropical systems steer towards
baja. Point been is there is very low confidence in the long range
details at this time. Latest euro builds another strong ridge by
early october so if the troughs stay dry and to our northeast the
dry spell will continue.

Aviation As of 10:45 am pdt Monday... Compressed marine layer scoured
by unfavorable dry airmass this morning. This has prevented much
of an inland intrusion of the marine layer and kept the marine
stratus instead banked along and just inland of the immediate
coastline. The marine layer had more leeway farther south around
the monterey bay due to slightly more favorable air masses wind
flow where it pushed inland over kmry ksns kwvi. Expect to see
locally patchy dense fog and vlifr-lifr CIGS linger around lip of
the monterey bay through late morning into the very early
afternoon. Otherwise, expect similar setup for tonight with
unfavorable offshore flow farther north and patchy dense fog
around the monterey bay.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR.

Sfo bridge approach...VFR.

Monterey bay terminals... Patchy dense fog and very low ceilings
linger through remainder of morning and possibly into the very
early afternoon along lip of the bay, thenVFR. Low ceilings
return tonight through late morning Tuesday.

Marine As of 10:41 am pdt Monday... Split wind flow with light
winds along the coast and breezy northwest winds in the outer
waters. Winds will continue to diminish through the day but will
remain locally breeze in the outer waters north of point reyes
tonight. Light mixed swell, with a predominate short period
northwest swell.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday Sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm until 3 pm
public forecast: mm rww
aviation: drp
marine: drp
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 5 mi41 min 63°F
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 6 mi48 min SE 9.9 59°F 1012 hPa
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 8 mi41 min S 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 1012.3 hPa
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 12 mi47 min WSW 8 G 11 54°F 61°F1012.2 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 12 mi41 min NW 5.1 G 5.1 62°F 1011.5 hPa
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 13 mi41 min N 1.9 G 2.9 57°F 1011 hPa
PXSC1 13 mi41 min 59°F 57°F
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 14 mi41 min SW 5.1 G 6 60°F 1011.9 hPa
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 14 mi41 min SW 6 G 6
OBXC1 14 mi41 min 59°F 57°F
LNDC1 16 mi41 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 62°F 1011.9 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 16 mi41 min 58°F4 ft
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 17 mi47 min SSW 1 G 2.9 60°F 65°F1012.2 hPa
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 19 mi41 min W 8 G 8 64°F 67°F1011.5 hPa60°F
PCOC1 - 9415144 - Port Chicago, CA 23 mi41 min W 5.1 G 6 67°F 66°F1011.4 hPa
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 25 mi31 min SE 7.8 G 12 52°F 55°F1012.7 hPa
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 27 mi41 min E 6 G 7 55°F1012.1 hPa
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 28 mi86 min SW 1.9 67°F 1011 hPa55°F
PSBC1 - 9415115 - Pittsburg (Suisun Bay), CA 31 mi41 min Calm G 2.9 71°F 1011.2 hPa
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 35 mi41 min E 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 69°F1012.3 hPa
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 48 mi31 min SE 3.9 G 7.8 52°F1012.3 hPa

Wind History for Richmond, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Novato / Gnoss Field, CA12 mi36 minN 09.00 miFair68°F53°F60%1011.5 hPa
Napa, Napa County Airport, CA19 mi17 minSSW 510.00 miFair66°F53°F63%1010.9 hPa
Petaluma Municipal Airport, CA20 mi16 minN 010.00 miFair70°F50°F50%1011.8 hPa
Concord, Buchanan Field, CA22 mi18 minVar 410.00 miFair79°F37°F23%1010.1 hPa
Oakland, Metro Oakland International Airport, CA23 mi18 minS 39.00 miA Few Clouds62°F55°F78%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from DVO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE45SE7SE85SW7CalmS7E4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalm3SE354NW13N13N7
G13
N7N6N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE4SE4E5SE8SE7NE7N12N12N14N11N10N6NW5N9NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Point San Quentin, San Francisco Bay, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point San Pablo Midchannel, San Pablo Bay, California Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.