Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sanford, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:22PM Friday July 21, 2017 12:29 AM EDT (04:29 UTC) Moonrise 3:03AMMoonset 5:45PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1031 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Light flow is expected with high pressure to the south through the weekend. Tranquil weather expected although daily scattered Thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and evening mainly Saturday and Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sanford, VA
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location: 37.98, -75.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 210135
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
935 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds toward the mid atlantic today into the
weekend, bringing increasingly hot and humid conditions to the
area. The hottest weather can be expected from Friday through
Sunday.

Near term through Friday
Current analysis indicates a weak sfc lee trough of low
pressure located from nj... Ssw to south central va and central
nc. The trough of low pressure aloft is now situated south of
the CWA and centered along the sc ga coast. The sky is partly
cloudy this evening under thin cirrus with some patches of
8-12kft altocu. Very warm and humid this evening with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. A few
isolated showers tstms from earlier have now dissipated. Mainly
dry overnight. Earlier convection over oh in has weakened and
seems unlikely to hold together as a weak wave aloft crosses n
of the area overnight in the wnw aloft. Warmer than last night
with lows staying 70-75 f or higher tonight.

Model consensus has the upper ridge axis centered from the tn
valley to nc on Fri into early sat, with an upper trough over
the eastern great lakes and NE states. The core of the highest
850 temperatures on Fri (21-22c) will be over much of the local
area of Fri and with dew pts expected to be higher (only mixing
out to around 70 f inland and to the lower-mid 70s near the
coast). Expect heat indices to be more solidly into advisory
criteria (105 to 109 f) and have therefore issued a heat
advisory for most of the CWA (left coastal worcester nc outer
banks out for now with cooler temperatures as well as much of
the far SW where it will be slightly drier). Actual highs will
be around 100 f metro richmond to the mid upper 90s elsewhere
(locally cooler lower 90s immediate coast). As far as precip
chances, airmass appears too stable overall for much in the way
of pop-up storms during the day, but with wnw flow aloft and
some weak shortwave energy moving into the area by late aftn,
will have ~20% pops by mid late aftn over the NW 1 2 of the cwa.

Enough shear moves into the far NW for a marginal risk for
severe with wind being the main threat is any type of convective
complex can hold together upon crossing the mtns.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
Ramped pops up a bit more for Fri night especially N NE zones
closest to upper level shortwave energy tracking through the wnw
flow aloft. Very warm humid Fri night with lows mainly 75 to 80
f. Slightly cooler most areas for Sat due to potential for more
clouds and as core of 850 mb heat shifts a bit s. However, it
will be even more humid so expect at least southern portions of
the CWA to need a heat advisory even with highs on avg only in
the mid 90s. As airmass destabilizes more by Sat aftn early
evening, and as heights aloft drop, convection developing from
the NW will be more likely to hold together for at least 30-50%
pops across most areas (20% NE nc) from late Sat aftn through
sat night. Far N NE portions of the CWA are in a slight risk
where higher shear will reside with marginal risk for the
remainder of the cwa. Again wind will be the primary threat.

Lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s Sat night and continued hot
an humid with additional heat headlines likely needed for some
of the region on Sunday. Highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s
Sunday.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Long term period will feature near normal temps on avg and
occasional chances for rain. In general expect lwr temps than this
weekend as the broad upr-level ridge across the eastern CONUS breaks
down in response to an approaching upr-level trough. The trough and
associated low-level front will bring an increasing chance for rain
mon, but will cap pops at 40% for now due to uncertainties regarding
timing and available moisture. Further model divergence occurs tue
and wed, with the 12z ECMWF keeping the low-level boundary in the
vicinity and the 12z GFS pushing things offshore, so will maintain
low end pops (20-40%) through midweek, with the best chance over far
se areas. As for temps, after one more hot day Mon with highs up to
the mid 90s, expect mid upr 80s for Tue through thu.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
High pressure will prevail off the southeast coast tonight into
Friday, with a trough to the lee of the appalachians. This will
promote light SW flow of 5-10kt. Thin high clouds tonight, with
sct aftn CU Friday. Mainly dry with only a minimal chc (15-20%)
of showers tstms Friday aftn evening. Similar conditions persist
into Saturday with a 20-40% chc (highest n) of late aftn evening
showers tstms. A low probability of late aftn evening
showers tstms continues Sunday Monday, but overall primarily
dry. A weak cold front approaches from the NW Tuesday.

Marine
Extended period of sub-sca conditions continues this week into the
weekend. Pattern is stagnant with bermuda high pres centered well
offshore and typical summertime late day thermal troughs with S sw
winds averaging 5-10 kt, occasionally up to 15 kt especially tonight
due to a slight increase in the pressure gradient. Waves over the
bay 1-2 ft with seas over coastal wtrs 2-3 ft. The next (weakening)
cold front approaches the region late mon, dropping into the area
mon night tue. Mainly sub-sca conditions expected to continue
however with weak CAA behind the front, and just some 4-5 ft seas
psbl out 20 nm. Flow becomes N nely then Tue through Thu as the frnt
slides offshore and dissipates.

Climate
Heatwave is expected to develop, mainly Friday through Sunday.

The 2nd half of july is climatologically the hottest few weeks
of the year so we still may not set any daily records at our
main climate sites. For reference, record highs today through
Sunday are listed below:
* date: today(7 20) fri(7 21) sat(7 22) sun(7 23)
* ric: 103 1930 104 1930 103 1952 103 1952
* orf: 102 1942 101 1926 102 2011 103 2011
* sby: 104 1930 106 1930 104 1930 103 2011
* ecg: 104 1942 102 1987 104 1952 104 1952

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for mdz021>024.

Nc... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for ncz012>017-
030>032.

Va... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for vaz048-061-062-
064-068-069-075>078-080>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb tmg
near term... Lkb ajz
short term... Lkb tmg
long term... Mas
aviation... Ajz
marine... Mas mam
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 22 mi29 min 73°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 26 mi41 min SSW 7 G 8.9 81°F 86°F1014.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi41 min SSW 12 G 14 85°F 87°F1013.8 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 37 mi41 min SW 9.9 G 11 73°F 69°F1014.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 37 mi41 min S 12 G 13 1015 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 38 mi29 min SW 12 G 16 84°F 84°F1 ft1012.9 hPa (+0.5)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 44 mi29 min WSW 14 G 16 85°F 85°F1 ft1014.4 hPa (+0.5)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 44 mi41 min SW 8.9 G 11 83°F 86°F1013.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 47 mi41 min 83°F 87°F1014.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi41 min SW 14 G 16

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA9 mi35 minSSW 610.00 miFair77°F75°F96%1014.1 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA24 mi34 minSSW 710.00 miFair80°F74°F83%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW4W4W5SW4SW4W3W44W5SW5SW5S9S11S11S13S16S11SW12SW8S7S11S8S6
1 day agoSW4S4S4SW6SW4S5S5SW3SW44CalmSE7S10S10S12S12S11S10S11S9S7SW8SW8SW5
2 days agoS10SW8SW5CalmCalm--CalmS4S5SE6SE8S7SE9SE8S11S9S12S10S7S8S6S6SW6S4

Tide / Current Tables for Shelltown, Pocomoke River, Maryland
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Shelltown
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:04 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:23 AM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:05 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:55 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.51.91.20.50.1-0.10.10.61.422.42.32.11.71.10.4-0.1-0.2-00.61.42.33

Tide / Current Tables for Saxis, Starling Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Saxis
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:27 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:46 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:18 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.11.40.70.2-0.1-0.10.311.72.22.32.11.81.20.60.1-0.3-0.20.211.92.73

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.