Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crisfield, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:14PM Monday October 23, 2017 9:56 PM EDT (01:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 8:03PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 836 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 3 ft. A slight chance of showers early this evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 836 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight, followed by a secondary cold front Wednesday. High pressure will return late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crisfield, MD
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location: 37.98, -75.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240149
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
949 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
A weakening cold front slowly push through the local area late
tonight into early Tuesday. A second cold front crosses the area
Tuesday night. High pressure builds across the gulf of mexico
Wednesday and Thursday... As low pressure lingers from the great
lakes to new england.

Near term through Tuesday
Current analysis indicates sfc high pressure well off the coast,
with low pressure deepening to the lee of the central
appalachians (this out ahead of parent sfc low over mi). Areas
of showers are overspreading much of the western piedmont this
evening. Earlier stronger line segments in vicinity of the blue
ridge in nc and va have weakened, with the stronger activity
now in central nc. Little overall change in thinking with the
scenario tonight, with a high shear low CAPE event expected,
which has prompted a tornado watch that extends into the ERN va
piedmont and runs through 06z. The best lift forcing for likely
to categorical pops (60-90%) looks to reach to areas west of
i-95 through midnight, then pushing E to the i-95 corridor from
03-06z, and to the coast from 06-12z. Strong low level jet and
effective shear values to 50-60 kt (and some directional shear
through 06z as sse sfc winds interact with ssw winds in the h85
to h7 layer. The last few runs of the hrrr depict the potential
for some stronger convection to push into s-central va prior to
06z, with a weakening trend thereafter. SPC has slgt risk svr
for SW parts of the local area (shifting to the ERN shore tue
morning). If it all comes together, an isolated severe TSTM with
damaging winds and even an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

However, more likely it will be just a narrow line of showers
with embedded convection with wind gusts staying below severe
limits (to 40-45 mph). Will continue the mention of locally
heavy rain and strong gusty winds in the hwo.

Expect skies to turn partly to mostly sunny by late morning w
and by late aftn e... And have continued W lowering pop trend
w-e. Still rather warm as winds remain from the sw, with highs
tues in the mid 70s W to the lower 80s SE as cold air lags well
behind off to the NW of the local area.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
Latest 12z 23 GFS nam ECMWF remain in good agreement Tue night
into wed, but then show some fairly significant differences
with respect to the strength of the upper low over the eastern
conus by late Wed thu. The ECMWF the deepest farthest south and
the GFS the weakest most progressive and the NAM somewhere in
between but genly a little more like the ecmwf.

Will side a little more to the nam ECMWF consensus, but not
quite to the extent of how deep the upper low digs south. Thus,
the sfc cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is
expected to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Any ra
tapers ends at the coast Tue evening. Lows will range from the
upper 40s west of i-95 to the mid upper 50s closer to the coast
by Wed morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower 50s NW to
lower 60s SE in the evening to 40-45f inland and 45f to around
50f by morning. On wed... Local area looks to remain in between
the sfc cold front well offshore and deeper moisture cold pool
aloft to our wnw. Some sct bkn CU will tend to linger due to
some shortwave energy aloft, but should be dry with highs
mainly in the m-u60s (staying a little below mav numbers as
they are based off the warmer gfs). For Wed night thu, siding to
the nam ECMWF allows for some digging SE of the upper level
shortwave energy from the great lakes through the carolinas by
thu morning. Will keep it dry for now, with partly cloudy
conditions. Lows Wed night mainly in the 40s and highs Thu 60-65
f under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Long term period starts off dry Thu night Fri with sfc high pressure
over the immediate area and W SW flow aloft. With light sfc winds
under a clear sky, expect low temps Thu night in the low mid 40s
most of the area, and highs in the mid upr 60s fri. Attention then
turns to an approaching deep upper-level trough sat. Although any
pcpn will likely hold off until after daytime sat, included a 20%
chance of a shower in case the faster ensemble member solutions pan
out. Better chance of rain (40-50%) arrives Sat night Sun as strong
sfc low pressure forms out ahead of the upper-level trough. There is
still plenty of uncertainty over the track of this low, but the
possibility is there for moderate to heavy rain sun. High temps in
the mid upper 60s Sat drop to the upr 50s to mid 60s sun.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
Low pressure and an associated cold front will approach fm the
west this evening, then the actual cold front will gradually
cross the region and move offshore later tonight into tue
evening. Increasing SE then S winds expected this evening thru
tue morning ahead of the front, with showers and possible tstms
moving thru the CWA later this evening into Tue morning. SE or s
winds 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt possible during this time
period, with higher gusts possible in stronger showers or tstms.

This front will bring the potential for MVFR ifr conditions in
showers and lower cigs. MainlyVFR conditions expected later tue
aftn evening through fri.

Marine
Previous marine headlines remain in place ahead of an approaching
cold front. Decided to put all headlines in effect with this package
with SCA conditions expected to commence over all wtrs within 12 hr.

The SCA is for 15-20 kt southerly winds over the rivers sound and 15-
25 kt winds with gusts up to 30 kt over the bay and ocean. Waves up
to 4 ft over the bay with seas over the ocean up to 7-8 ft. A trough
of low pressure ahead of the cold front slides through the area
early tue, with the pressure gradient relaxing a bit into the day
tue and winds decreasing to below SCA thresholds. Main cold front
crosses the area Tue night with sub-sca NW winds expected behind the
front into wed. Will maintain the SCA over the ocean through the day
wed due to a prolonged period of 5 ft seas. Lighter winds and sub-
sca conditions into Thu and Fri with sfc high pressure over the
area.

Tides coastal flooding
A modestly strong sse wind ahead of a cold front will
potentially push tidal anomalies to 1.0-1.5ft above normal late
tonight into early Tuesday morning. This could push some
locations near minor flooding thresholds (mainly cambridge and
bishops head) during high tide late tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Water levels at these locations potentially remain
elevated for the following high tide (aftn early evening), which
is the higher astronomical tide.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Tuesday for anz635>638.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Tuesday for anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Tuesday for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Mas
aviation... Lkb tmg
marine... Ajb mas
tides coastal flooding... Ajz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 19 mi39 min SE 19 G 24 71°F 69°F1012.9 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi37 min SSE 21 G 25 72°F 1011 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 27 mi39 min SSE 13 G 19 72°F 70°F1013.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 32 mi39 min SE 24 G 27 1013.3 hPa
44089 32 mi57 min 69°F4 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi39 min S 19 G 24 73°F 68°F1011 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi37 min S 21 G 25 72°F 1012.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi135 min SSE 21 G 24
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 39 mi39 min SE 19 G 26 71°F 70°F1011.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi39 min SSE 27 G 30 71°F 1012.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi39 min 1013.5 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 47 mi39 min S 13 G 18 70°F 69°F1015.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi37 min S 23 G 27 72°F 1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA21 mi63 minSSE 10 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F68°F93%1014.7 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA23 mi82 minSSE 13 G 2010.00 miFair72°F66°F85%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3SE3E3CalmSE4CalmSE3CalmSE4CalmS4SE7SE8SE10SE9SE10SE10SE10SE12SE11SE10SE13S13
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4--SE8SE7SE6SE7SE5E7E5SE3CalmCalm
2 days agoNW4CalmCalmCalmW3W5NW5NW4NW3NW4NW4NW3NW4CalmE4E4E5NE6----SE4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Crisfield, Little Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Crisfield
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:23 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:34 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:43 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:22 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.31.71.91.91.71.410.70.40.40.611.51.92.22.32.21.91.410.60.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Big Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Long Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:06 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:25 PM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:14 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.511.51.92.121.81.410.60.30.40.61.11.72.22.52.52.21.91.40.90.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.