Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crisfield, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:41PM Friday February 15, 2019 2:39 PM EST (19:39 UTC) Moonrise 1:23PMMoonset 3:17AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1240 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or snow likely through the night.
ANZ500 1240 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will pass through the waters this evening. Low pressure will track along the boundary overnight before passing by to our south Saturday. High pressure will briefly return Saturday night, but low pressure will pass by to the west Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will return early next week before stronger low pressure possibly impacts the waters during the middle portion of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crisfield, MD
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location: 37.98, -75.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 151824
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
124 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front crosses the area this evening, then stalls out
across north carolina late tonight while low pressure approaches
from the southwest. The low tracks east across north carolina
Saturday, then off the coast Saturday evening. Another low
pressure area approaches from the southwest Sunday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1115 am est Friday...

latest analysis indicates strong sfc low pressure (~990 mb)
centered over eastern canada south of james bay, moving ene.

Upper low lags behind this over ontario. Sfc high pressure is
situated well to the E over atlantic canada. Local area well
into the warm sector this morning and with the areas of low
pressure far removed from the cwa, no real chance for
precipitation today. Skies are currently mostly cloudy over much
of south central and central va, with an area of less cloud
cover to the NW and also to the se. Expect at least partial
sunshine for a few hrs this aftn for all zones (and partly-
mostly sunny for few hrs in the se). With a SW low level wind
flow, raised highs a few degrees over the SE with highs into the
low 70s expected for most of SE va NE nc away from the
immediate coast. Highs will avg 65-70 f most other places,
except for locally cooler temperatures along the coast of the
eastern shore.

The cold front crosses the area this evening, before stalling across
nc overnight. Mild this evening, then falling temps late with
lows in the upper 30s NW to the mid 40s se. Pops increase late,
but ptype would be all rain through 12z.

Short term Saturday through Monday
As of 1115 am est Friday...

latest 12z 15 model data filtering in continues
to support likely to categorical pops on sat, highest over the
south. Still evaluating the data, but this event will be one
that will require high precipitation intensity for accumulating
snow to take place. Best chance for this occurring looks to be
across central va where sfc temperatures would initially be in
the upper 30s to lower 40s at 12z, then would potentially fall
several degrees through the mid late morning and possible change
to all snow. Did a 1st cut in the gridded database of this, but
still do not anticipate temperatures falling to 32 f or colder.

Thus, accumulating snow for the time being will be confined to
metro ric on north (and not quite as far east as ches bay).

Mainly all rain or a rain to snow mixture elsewhere with no
accumulation.

Mstly cldy with some lingering lt rain across sern zones sat
eve, then dry with some partial clrg across the north as high
pressure builds into the area. Lows upr 20s north to mid 30s se
cstl areas.

High pres retreats Sun morning with some light moisture returning
during the aftrn ahead of the next system apprchg from the wsw. Kept
this pcpn in liquid form, but if does come in a bit faster it could
start out as a brief periof of fz rain across the piedmont before
temps get above 32. Highs low-mid 40s NW with upr 40s-lwr 50s se.

Rain overspreads the area Sun night with chc pops north and likely
pops south as yet another wave is slow to push offshore. Lows mid
30s north to low-mid 40s south. This wave pushes off the coast mon
with pcpn tapering off west to east thru the day. Mstly cldy with
highs upr 40s north to low-mid 50s south.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
As of 330 am est Friday...

very active pattern in store for the extended forecast period.

Amplification of the mean trough across the western CONUS will
induce downstream ridging across the caribbean and southeastern us
leading to a prolonged period of southwesterly flow aloft over the
local area. A series of kinks in this flow pattern will traverse the
region with associated chances for precipitation. Timing and
amplitude of these features has not been handled well by the models
in recent days and today is no exception.

Rain chances will become confined to the south Monday night. Another
more substantial area of low pressure will approach from the SW by
Tuesday morning. Chance to likely pops continue in the forecast
through at least Thursday with continued southwesterly flow aloft.

Details become murky regarding the potential for any p-type issues
into next week but did include areas of rain snow mix across the
climatologically favored far northern quarter of the region at
various times into the middle of next week. Confidence is very low
on the exact placement of these areas given the wild swings in model
solutions during this active period.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
As of 130 pm est Friday...

strong SW winds are present this afternoon ahead of a cold front
that is currently over the ohio river valley. Winds this
afternoon will remain between 15 kt and 20 kt with gust from 20
kt to 30 kt. As the cold front approaches and with the lost of
solar heating, winds will decrease below 10 kt after 00z. Mid-
level clouds will move in from the south ahead of the cold
front with CIGS 5k-10k feet overnight. A low pressure will
track along the nc sc border Saturday, spreading precip across
the entire area after 13z. Right now, thinking is that kric and
ksby will change over to snow during the event. Vis will be
further reduced after transitioning to snow. CIGS will drop to
ifr after 12z 13z for all TAF sites. Kric will possibly jump
back up to MVFR after 16z Saturday.

Outlook...

pattern becomes active through early next week. Periodic ifr
conditions are likely throughout this time frame. Next low
pressure will move across the area late Sunday night.

Marine
As of 330 am est Friday...

a cold front will be approaching the waters from the west today.

Ahead of the front, ssw winds will average 10-15 kt today, except up
to 20 kt for the northern coastal waters where seas should build to
4-5 ft for a time this afternoon and evening. Maintained SCA north
of chincoteague to account for this.

Models then in agreement that a cold front drops south over the
waters tonight into Saturday morning, turning winds from SW to nne
around 15 kt, and up to 20 kt south of CAPE charles and over the
currituck sound, as sfc low pressure moves ene along the stalling
cold front. Seems best chance of SCA conditions have shifted south
and out of the ches bay, so will only go with scas for south of cape
henry and including the currituck sound for Sat sat night. Seas
build to 4-5 feet south and perhaps up to 6 ft. Seas 2-4 ft north
with waves in the bay 2-3 ft. Unsettled pattern then brings another
low pressure system through the area by late Sun or Mon and again by
midweek. Scas may again be possible around wed.

Equipment
Akq radar is down for maintenance, ftm sent.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am Saturday to 4 am est Sunday
for anz656-658.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz650.

Small craft advisory from noon to 10 pm est Saturday for
anz633.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb mpr
long term... Rhr
aviation... Crp
marine... Jdm
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 19 mi45 min S 17 G 19 54°F 46°F1006.3 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 27 mi45 min SSW 8 G 9.9 57°F 49°F1007 hPa
44089 32 mi39 min 42°F3 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi45 min SW 12 G 15 62°F 43°F1005.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 32 mi45 min S 16 G 17 1008.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi45 min WSW 9.9 G 13
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 39 mi45 min SW 13 G 19 58°F 41°F1005.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi45 min SSW 17 G 21 61°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi45 min 61°F 39°F1005.6 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 47 mi45 min SW 15 G 19 47°F 42°F1007.5 hPa
OCSM2 49 mi159 min 3 ft

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA21 mi45 minSSW 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F45°F64%1007.2 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA23 mi44 minSW 15 G 2310.00 miFair66°F31°F27%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW10
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6W5W6W6W7W7NW3N3CalmSW3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW6NW43S10S9
2 days agoNE9NE6E6SE3S8S9S8SW6W17
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Tide / Current Tables for Crisfield, Little Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Crisfield
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:18 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:28 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:08 PM EST     1.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.1-000.30.81.31.722.11.91.61.10.70.30.10.10.40.71.21.51.71.61.3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Big Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Long Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:59 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:11 AM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:09 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:37 PM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.1-00.10.511.622.22.11.81.410.60.20.10.20.511.41.71.71.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.