Saturday, December15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crisfield, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:44PM Saturday December 15, 2018 12:10 AM EST (05:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:38PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 938 Pm Est Fri Dec 14 2018
Rest of tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..N winds 5 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt...becoming sw. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 938 Pm Est Fri Dec 14 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will approach the waters through Saturday, bringing unsettled weather. Conditions will remain unsettled into Sunday as another low slowly pivots across the area. High pressure will build over the waters early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters late Saturday, and will likely be needed Sunday night into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crisfield, MD
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location: 37.98, -75.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 150359
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1059 pm est Fri dec 14 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight, then tracks
across the local area Saturday. An upper level trough will
remain over the area Saturday night through Sunday. High
pressure returns Monday through Wednesday. The next cold front
approaches from the west Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 1045 pm est Friday...

with a break in the rain to just very light rain or drizzle
across portions of south central va where the melting snowpack
is interacting with rising dew pts, have received some reports
of near zero vsbys in some areas. Have issued a short-fuse dense
fog advisory to account for this (through 2 am Sat for now).

Would expect to see vsbys improve a bit as the rain fills back
in so will re-assess closer to 2 am the need for an expansion in
time and possibly areal coverage.

Latest high res data continues to indicate the heaviest and
steadiest rainfall overnight will be mainly east of i-95 as the
low approaches from the SW late. Can't rule out some elevated
thunder across the SE late as that area is progged to get warmed
sectored as the triple point low crosses the area. Min temps
for the night have been reached as readings have steadied out or
risen over the past few hrs. In addition, areas of fog will
accompany all this making for a rather messy night ahead. Thus,
adjusted the grids based on the current radar and model trends.

Temps by morning should range btwn 40-45 across the piedmont to
the upr 50s-lwr 60s along the sern coastal areas. Flood watch
remains in affect through late Saturday.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
As of 215 pm est Friday...

small area of lo pres along the coastal front will be exiting the
va capes Sat morning while main occluded lo pres tracks into the
tn valley. The coastal lo pres will push a frontal boundary
back S (invof the coast) by afternoon. Otherwise... Models
showing nebulous sfc pres pattern over the fa sat... Which
suggests keeping conditions cloudy. Pops will remain quite high
in the morning... Then ra will begin to shift to the ene (and
pops lowering in the afternoon). Will keep flood watch for the
balance of the day... But it will likely be allowed to end sooner
once ra coverage intensity lowers Sat afternoon. Will continue
w patchy areas of fg in the morning. Highs around 50f W to the
l-m60s in far SE va-ne nc (though temperatures likely drop off
during the day).

Upper level system approaches from the W Sat night... W most
models showing steady pcpn having ended for most areas. Will
maintain low chance pops (~30%) S and high chance to likely
pops (far N (50-70%). Cooler, with highs ranging from the m-u40s
n NW to the m50s se. Area of shras may linger across the E and
ne Sun night... As low pressure departs the region. 12z 14 NAM a
bit stronger W the departing lo pres just off the SRN nj de
coasts Sun evening night. At this time... Appears cold enough
air behind the storm likely arrives after pcpn exits so no
change in ptype expected (late Sun sun night) on the ERN shore.

Highs Sun in the m-u40s N to the l-m50s se.

Dry wx returns Mon under NW flow aloft as sfc hi pres moves
through midwest. Highs in the u40s N to m50s in NE nc.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 130 pm est Friday...

hi pres will be sliding across the region Mon night into tue
night... Then offshore wed. Dry seasonable wx is expected.

Amplification of trough aloft through the great lakes Thu then
to the E fri... Pushes a cold front into across the local area by
the end of next week. Will increase clouds pops Thu into fri.

Lows Mon night from the u20s W to the l-m30s at the coast. Highs
tue ranging through the 40s. Lows Tue night in the m20s inland
to the l30s along the coast in SE va-ne nc. Highs Wed in the
m-u40s N to the l50s s. Lows Wed night ranging through the 30s.

Highs Thu in the l-m50s N to the m-u50s s. Highs Fri mainly
50-55f.

Aviation 04z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 645 pm est Friday...

rain continues to overspread the area this evening ahead of an
apprchg low from the sw. CIGS quickly drop to ifr in rain and
fog. Areas of lifr fog is possible as well. The low tracks
across nern nc sern va Sat morning. Thus, rain fog continue
through the morning hrs. Thunder was left out of the forecast
attm, but thunder is psbl early Sat morning at ecg orf as the
low tracks across the area. The rain becomes more sporatic in
nature Sat aftrn, but ifr CIGS remain. Wind shear was added to
rcg forecast after midnight. Otw, e-ne winds tonight, become
s-se along the coast late tonite then W behind the low sat. Ric
stays NE through the forecast period.

Outlook...

an upper level trough lingers over the area into sun... Ifg cigs
along with periodic rain fog likely to continue. Drier wx with
improving conditions arrive late Sun night into Mon and will
then persist through midweek.

Marine
As of 1015 pm est Friday...

went ahead and hoisted an SCA for the lower bay south of new
point comfort and the currituck sound until 6am Saturday. Quick
surge of onshore winds as gradient ramps up ahead of approaching
low pressure overnight. Hrrr and new 00z nmm arw each show a
brief 3-5 hour window of marginal SCA winds.

As of 310 pm est Friday...

a pair of low pressure systems will impact the local waters
tonight through the weekend. E-se winds of 5-15 kt (up to 20 kt
ocean)are expected thru tonight. Seas are expected to increase
to 5-6 ft across all ocean zones tonight, and scas remain in
place to account for this. Winds remain below SCA levels for
the most part, but a brief period of gusts to ~20 kt is possible
tonight over the SRN bay mouth of the bay. Since wind gusts
will be right around advisory criteria and relatively short
lived, opted to not issue an SCA for the bay attm.

Winds decrease and become more variable over most areas by sat
pm as the aforementioned sfc low becomes elongated and moves
offshore and a second low pressure center (coupled W a closed upper
low) moves over the mountains of wv. However, winds are expected
turn to the NE over the northern ocean zones and remain in the
10-20 kt range through out much of the day on Sat due to the
w-e oriented area of (elongated) sfc low pressure center
centered from WV to SE va. Therefore, seas likely remain
elevated over the coastal zones through the weekend, but may
drop below 5 ft from late Sat night-sun S of CAPE charles. Winds
then become more W NW by Sun evening (and increase to 15-20 kt)
as the secondary area of low pressure moves offshore. Winds
turn more to the NW on Mon evening through Tue am and increase
to ~20 kt over the bay ~25 kt over the ocean as an upper trough
moves from SE canada to new england and a shot of colder air
moves into the mid-atlantic from the nw. Seas increase to sca
levels over the SRN ocean zones Sunday night, and remain
elevated over northern areas. Elevated seas could potentially
continue through tue, so current scas that go thru 6am Sun may
need to be extended additional scas may need to be issued in the
coming days.

Hydrology
As of 1015 pm Friday...

ra runoff will eventually pose river flood threat along the
james... Appomattox and chowan rivers late in the weekend into
early next week. Our latest multimedia briefing at
weather.Gov wakefield contains the latest information. Please
also refer to the latest river and lake summary (wbcrvdakq).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Flood watch through Saturday afternoon for ncz012>017-030>032-
102.

Va... Flood watch through Saturday afternoon for vaz048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.

Dense fog advisory until 2 am est Saturday for vaz065>068-079-
080-513.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Sunday for anz650-652-654-
656-658.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Saturday for anz632>634.

Synopsis... Alb lkb
near term... Lkb mpr
short term... Alb
long term... Alb
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jdm
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 19 mi40 min NE 8.9 G 11 47°F 43°F1021 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 27 mi40 min E 6 G 8.9 51°F 43°F1020.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 32 mi40 min E 13 G 16 1020.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi46 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 42°F1020.5 hPa
44089 32 mi40 min 47°F3 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi40 min E 7.8 G 9.7 47°F 1021.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi46 min E 8 G 9.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 39 mi40 min NE 5.1 G 8 50°F 43°F1020.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi40 min N 8 G 8.9 43°F 1021.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi46 min 48°F 41°F1021.9 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 47 mi46 min NE 1 G 1.9 50°F 46°F1023 hPa
OCSM2 49 mi190 min 3 ft

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA21 mi16 minENE 79.00 miLight Rain53°F51°F93%1020.8 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA23 mi15 minESE 610.00 miLight Drizzle56°F54°F97%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE5E5NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE4NE5NE5NE5NE5--NE4NE5NE34SE3NE4NE7
1 day agoS5S7S4CalmCalmN3S3S6SE5SE4SE9S6S10S8S6S7SE3E3CalmCalmNE4NE3NE3Calm
2 days agoW7W5NW4N43NW9NW4W4W5NW7N7N10N8NW6
G16
5N5CalmS5CalmS3SW5SW4S7S7

Tide / Current Tables for Crisfield, Little Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Crisfield
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:11 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:11 AM EST     1.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     First Quarter
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:27 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:21 PM EST     1.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.60.91.31.61.71.71.51.20.90.60.40.40.611.31.61.81.81.61.30.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Big Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Long Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:52 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     1.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     First Quarter
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:08 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:50 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.40.71.11.51.71.81.61.41.10.80.50.40.50.81.21.51.81.91.81.51.20.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.