Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Shepherdsville, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 5:50PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:23 PM EST (01:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:31AMMoonset 5:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shepherdsville, KY
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location: 38, -85.7     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 162321
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
621 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Updated aviation discussion...

Forecast update
Updated 410 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
updated products to expire the last portion of the winter storm
warning as accumulating snow has moved east of the area. Flurries
and light snow showers may still occur tonight. Also roadways may
remain hazardous through the overnight hours.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 252 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
the snow is nearly out of the forecast area this afternoon and
should be out of here by 21z or shortly thereafter. The current
headlines expire at 21z and at this time it looks like we should be
able to let them go by then.

Skies have been clearing across the region in the wake of the snow
this afternoon. However, satellite and observations show a stratus
deck beginning to sink in from the north across in. These clouds
will spread across the area late this afternoon into this evening.

Looking at soundings and time height sections, the low level
moisture tonight will stretch into the dendritic growth zone. This
will result in flurries and or snow showers from this evening into
the overnight hours. Some light snow accumulations up to a few
tenths of an inch will be possible in areas that do see the snow
showers. Snow and flurries should taper off through the morning
tomorrow with dry conditions expected into tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will fall back into the single digits. Winds
will be much lighter than they were last night, but will be enough
that wind chill values will fall into the 0 to -10 degree range.

Highs tomorrow will be warmer than today, but still top out in the
lower 20s at the most. Lows tomorrow night will once again fall back
to the single digits again.

Given the potential for some light snow accumulations tonight and
the continued very temperatures and wind chills, will be issuing an
sps this afternoon. Roads may worsen overnight as well as the
sunshine has likely allowed some of the snow to melt and this could
refreeze as the Sun GOES down.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 303 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
main theme for the long term will be a warming trend as surface high
pressure slowly slips off to the southeastern us and warm, southerly
flow returns to the lower ohio valley. Temperature forecasts will be
tricky during the long term period as we're not anticipating getting
above the freezing mark until Thursday, and the deep snowpack will
act to deflect much of the sun's energy until it is melted down.

Will knock temperatures down a few degrees from what most guidance
has for Thursday and Friday to account for this potential.

Lee cyclogenesis will begin Saturday across the central plains in
advance of a strong shortwave trough. Meanwhile, across the lower
ohio valley, models show WAA and weak isentropic lift along
295k 300k surfaces starting Saturday ahead of a warm front. This
will result in increased cloudiness as well as some isolated showers
across portions of the region.

The trough and associated surface low will deepen and begin to wrap
up on Sunday over the plains and midwest. Long range models show a
nice "comma head" signature associated with a mature midlatitude
cyclone. The surface low will track off to the northeast and take
aim toward the great lakes region, leaving our region well within
the warm sector.

By late Sunday night, a cold front with the aforementioned surface
low will be knocking on the front door of our western-most counties.

Models indicate a healthy line of precipitation along the front, and
while there are some timing differences, it looks like the best
chance for precipitation will be Sunday after midnight for western
portions of the cwa, with it ending Monday afternoon near the
bluegrass lake cumberland plateau areas. While deep layer shear will
be strong with this system, models show hardly any mucape, and this
should limit any severe weather potential. Given the strong forcing,
can't rule out a some isolated thunderstorms, though confidence to
include them this far out is too low.

Unlike the past few cold fronts the lower ohio valley has had to
deal with, the air mass behind the FROPA Monday will not be of
arctic origins. High temperatures Monday and beyond will generally
range in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Aviation (00z TAF issuance)
issued at 616 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
vfr to high-end MVFR stratus deck currently moving in from indiana
and illinois. Regional radars reveal light snow showers within this
stratus deck, and various observations have reported visibilities
ranging from +10 miles to 2 1 2 miles in these snow showers. Expect
to see similar conditions this evening into tomorrow morning across
all TAF sites. Drier air will filter in tomorrow morning after
sunrise and scour out the stratus first starting in hnb sdf lex
before reaching bwg.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Update... Ams
short term... Eer
long term... Dm
aviation... Dm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisville, Standiford Field, KY13 mi88 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast11°F0°F58%1037.1 hPa
Louisville, Bowman Field Airport, KY16 mi31 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast10°F0°F63%1037.5 hPa
Fort Knox, KY16 mi28 minW 810.00 miOvercast7°F-2°F67%1036.9 hPa

Wind History from SDF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW14NW10W10NW10W9NW9NW9NW9NW10W11W11NW10W8W12NW9W7NW8W7W6W7W10W9W10W11
1 day agoE4E5SE4SE5SE7SE5SE5SE7SE8SE8SE9S7S8S7SW11SW10
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN3CalmN3N3SE3CalmCalmSE3SE3SE4E6SE5S6SE5SE6SE6SE7E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.