Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shepherdsville, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:53PM Monday May 21, 2018 11:12 AM EDT (15:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:49AMMoonset 1:03AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shepherdsville, KY
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location: 38, -85.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 211100
afdlmk
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
700 am edt Mon may 21 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 255 am edt Mon may 21 2018
largely a persistence forecast today as the ohio valley remains
under a warm and moist low-level air mass, weak flow aloft and weak
surface gradients. Ongoing convection over the mississippi valley is
on track to stay mainly to our north and west.

Expect at least scattered convection to fire later today, with hi-
res models pointing to the 18-20z time frame, but a strong enough
outflow from storms to our west could initiate earlier west of
interstate 65. Plenty of moisture and instability in place to
support typical pulse threats such as gusty winds and heavy
rainfall, but dynamics are too weak for organized severe weather.

Marginal risk in spc's day 1 outlook seems to be on the money.

Convective temps are a bit lower than Sunday, so expect more clouds
to develop earlier and limit MAX temps to the mid 80s. Showers and
storms will continue into the evening before mostly dissipating.

However, both GFS and NAM suggest a sfc boundary could hang up near
the ohio river, and continue to support precip chances through the
night.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 235 am edt Mon may 21 2018
a weak cool front is expected to be across central illinois and
central indiana Tuesday morning and will drop into southern indiana
and central kentucky by late afternoon and into the evening hours.

Scattered showers or storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across
parts of the area ahead of the front, and this could limit
destabilization for the afternoon. If skies do clear out by
afternoon ahead of the front, then modest instability would develop
on the order of 1500 to 2000 j kg. Surface convergence along the
front and weak but present deep layer shear (25 to 30 kts) may be
enough of a trigger to fire convection by late afternoon or early
evening. The better setup for stronger storms lies northeast of the
area, but couldn't rule out a stronger storm producing gusty winds
or hail north of i-64 and east of i-65.

The front then clears south of the tennessee border Tuesday night
and any remaining showers should dissipate by early Wednesday
morning. With high pressure nosing in from north, northeast east
flow will provide a couple of drier, slightly less humid, but still
warm days for the ohio valley. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday-
Friday.

Lower confidence going into the upcoming holiday weekend as the
suite of forecast models continue to show a complex pattern
featuring a couple of shortwave troughs moving through the flow but
also tropical moisture originating out of the gulf. Depending on how
these two systems come together, or not, will dictate coverage of
showers and storms. A trend in the model consensus from the previous
forecast is for less chances on Saturday as any moisture from the
gulf now looks to hold off until Sunday for the ohio valley.

Temperatures through this week and upcoming weekend will continue to
stay above normal with highs in the mid upper 80s and lows in the
60s.

Aviation (12z TAF issuance)
issued at 645 am edt Mon may 21 2018
vfr conditions with light winds and cirrus ceilings this morning
across central kentucky and southern indiana. Convection remains
well to the west over the mississippi valley, and does not figure to
even impact hnb until around midday.

Expect scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon, with
better coverage than Sunday given lower convective temps. Will
mention vcts and CB across the board starting early in the
afternoon, with the potential for a direct impact on all but lex
increasing enough to warrant a prob30 after 21-22z.

Confidence diminishes after sunset, but this pattern hasn't shown
signs of sustaining organized convection too deep into the night.

Will go dry after 02-04z with mid-level debris cloudiness.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Short term... Ras
long term... Zt
aviation... Ras


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisville, Standiford Field, KY13 mi17 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F64°F58%1019.7 hPa
Louisville, Bowman Field Airport, KY16 mi20 minS 510.00 miA Few Clouds79°F66°F65%1020.2 hPa
Fort Knox, KY16 mi77 minE 410.00 miFair75°F63°F69%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from SDF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NW12
G18
W8W9W54S6
G15
CalmSW7SW6S10SW9SW3SW7SW5CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmW4S5S4S6
1 day agoSW12SW12W12W7W9W11
G18
W11W13W8SW6SW5SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmS4SE5SE6W6CalmSW4SW5W8
2 days agoE3E53SE3CalmE6NE9CalmNE3NE3SE4SE5SE6S8S4SE6S5SE5S7S6SW9SW7SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.