Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Shepherdsville, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:29PM Saturday November 18, 2017 12:30 PM EST (17:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 6:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shepherdsville, KY
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location: 38, -85.7     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 181727
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
1227 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Updated aviation discussion...

Mesoscale update
Issued at 1115 am est Sat nov 18 2017
the surface cyclone continues to deepen and race to the northeast,
with a recent analysis showing a 992 mb low in east-central il (near
the in border). Stark wind shift shows the front well, extending
from central il into southern mo. Radar mosaic and visible satellite
also show a very thin convective band forming along the boundary,
with reflectivities blossoming between springfield il and st. Louis.

A narrow corridor of roughly 500 j kg MLCAPE exists just ahead of
the boundary, and the rap suggests central ky southern in may
realize a very narrow corridor of 400-500 j kg MLCAPE from mid to
late afternoon. Given the 50-60 kt llj, convective activity could
certainly mix down some damaging winds. More widespread gusts of 40-
50 mph are still likely this afternoon and evening. The very
impressive wind fields are supportive of bowing segments along a
qlcs, which would increase the threat for a brief tornado or two.

Low-level winds are veered, but 0-1 km shear of 45 kts and esrh over
350 m2 s2 suggest tornadic development is possible.

Timing-wise, a band of showers and thunderstorms is still forecast
to push west-to-east across the forecast area between 2-8 pm est.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to move through the i-65 corridor
between 4-6 pm est. Winds will quickly become northwesterly behind
the front and remain quite gusty this evening.

Short term (this afternoon through Sunday evening)
issued at 238 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Gusty winds today through this evening...

rain and gusty winds continue to be the focus for today into
tonight. A strong cold front will approach the area this morning and
move through this afternoon into the early evening hours.

Currently the radar shows scattered showers, mainly across north
central ky. The latest high resolution guidance suggest that some
light showers will develop across south central ky more towards
daybreak. In general today, pops were trimmed back a bit during the
morning hours. As the front moves in this afternoon, coverage of
precipitation will increase with showers and scattered thunderstorms
along and behind the front. Most of the thunderstorms should be
elevated in nature slightly behind the front. However, some
instability may develop right ahead of the front this afternoon
which could lead to the potential for a few severe storms with
damaging winds, mainly west of i-65. Further east, instability will
be decreasing as the storms approach, so the threat will be less.

Still, with the strong wind field an isolated damaging wind gust
cannot be ruled out.

Outside of any storms, it will be quite windy today. We are already
seeing some gusts to just over 30 mph early this morning. Gusts are
expected to continue to increase into the mid morning hours.

Sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph can be expected
this morning. For this afternoon into the evening, sustained wind
speeds of 20-30 mph are expected. In addition, with the pressure
gradient tightening and mixing occurring a bit deeper, wind gusts
are expected to increase a bit this afternoon just ahead of and
behind the front. Gusts to 45 mph certainly look possible and a few
gusts higher than that are not out of the question. The peak time
frame for the higher gusts looks to be 2-8 pm. Winds will shift
quickly from southerly to northwesterly as the front moves through.

Soundings continue to indicate some stronger gusts to around 40 mph
will continue through the evening hours, so will keep the expiration
time for the wind advisory at 06z.

Temperatures will be on the warmer side today, topping out in the
mid 60s. However, they will quickly drop into the 40s behind the
front with lows tonight in the low to mid 30s. Tomorrow will be much
cooler with highs in the lower to mid 40s.

Long term (after midnight Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 248 am est Sat nov 18 2017
this next week looks to be fairly quiet with surface high pressure
over the region a majority of the time. An upper level trough will
swing through on Tuesday night Wednesday and the ECMWF does try to
paint some precipitation across north central ky Tuesday night.

However, it is the only model advertising this at this time, so will
keep the forecast dry for now. This will, however, bring another
shot of cold air to the region knocking high temperatures back into
the 40s for Wednesday and thanksgiving. Thanksgiving morning looks
to be the coldest of the long term period with lows dipping into the
mid 20s. Early black Friday shoppers should bundle up as Friday
morning will not be much warmer with lows in the upper 20s to lower

Aviation (18z TAF issuance)
issued at 1226 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
difficult aviation conditions are expected this afternoon and early
this evening as combination of gusty winds and a line of fast moving
storms moves through the terminals.

Strong cold front will push in from the west this afternoon. Ahead
of the surface front, scattered showers with MVFR ceilings are
expected a the terminals. Southwest winds of 17-22kts and gusts up
to 35-40kts can be expected.

The forecasts have been updated to slightly slow the frontal timing
based on current observations. The front looks to pass through khnb
in the 18 20-21z time frame. It should pass through ksdf and kbwg
18 21-23z time frame, and the pass through klex in the 18 23-19 00z
time frame. We expect some tempo drops to ifr within showers storms
that accompany the front through the terminal.

Short term, high resolution guidance shows and sharp
isallobaric response in the post frontal airmass. So gusts of 40-
43kts could occur at the terminals right after winds shift to the
wnw nw. Gradient looks to be tight for a few hours before
diminishing after 19 03z.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... Wind advisory until 1 am est midnight cst Sunday for

Ky... Wind advisory until 1 am est midnight cst Sunday for

Mesoscale... .Ebw
short term... Eer
long term... .Eer
aviation... ..Mj

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisville, Standiford Field, KY13 mi35 minSSW 17 G 3110.00 miOvercast66°F57°F73%998.6 hPa
Louisville, Bowman Field Airport, KY16 mi38 minSSW 17 G 2710.00 miOvercast65°F57°F78%999 hPa
Fort Knox, KY16 mi95 minS 18 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy63°F55°F78%1000.7 hPa

Wind History from SDF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE6SE8SE9SE8SE6E4E5SE7SE7SE8S8S12S16
1 day agoNE7N4NW7N3CalmCalmN3NE6E6E4E3E3E4SE10SE9SE10E9E9SE9SE7SE7E8E9SE7
2 days agoS7S11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.