Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shepherdsville, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:59PM Sunday May 28, 2017 4:40 AM EDT (08:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:23AMMoonset 11:01PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shepherdsville, KY
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location: 38, -85.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 280720
afdlmk
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
320 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Short term (now through Monday)
Issued at 315 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Strong storm chances later today conditional upon destabilizing...

trailing stratiform rain from MCS now over the northern gulf coast
states will slide across southern ky for the remainder of the
overnight, so will continue high pops there with a small chance for
an embedded rumble of thunder. Overnight rainfall, and expected
rainfall on Sunday are not enough to warrant the flash flood watch
continuing. So, will let that fall off in coordination with jkl.

More on the Sunday precipitation below...

once southern ky precipitation ends, we should see a relative dry
period through the remainder of Sunday morning and early afternoon.

As we move toward late afternoon, a shortwave and it's associated
surface low over the southern great lakes will drag a cold front
near the area. Despite what is expected to be fairly heavy cloud
cover throughout the day, models show modest to moderate
destabilization by late afternoon. Most models suggest ml cape
values around 1000 j kg, but a couple of models suggest values
closer to 2000 j kg. Given the amount of cloud cover and that sw
surface wind will just be advecting old cold pool air from overnight
convection, feel the lower instability values are a better bet.

Instability will play a big factor because vertical shear profiles
are more than sufficient for organized updrafts, and even some
splitting rotating storm modes given the long-straight hodograph. If
we are able to destabilize, still can't take the threat of a few
severe storms off the table. Most likely place for this would be
over southern in and northern ky late afternoon into the evening.

Spc has us in a marginal risk that is ultimately conditional upon
destabilizing. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies with highs
topping out in the upper 70s and touching 80.

Shortwave trough axis and cool front move through overnight, with
shower and storm chances ending from west to east. Overnight lows
should drop into the upper 50s and low 60s by dawn on memorial day.

Still expecting a dry and pleasant memorial day with plenty of
sunshine and highs on either side of 80. The dry relief will come
thanks to a mid level dry slot wrapping into a deep occluded low
over lake superior, and post-frontal surface high pressure.

Long term (Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 am edt Sun may 28 2017
Monday night - Wednesday...

deep and occluded cyclone centered over lake superior will slowly
meander into eastern ontario through Tuesday night. Mid level dry
slot that had been over the area will push SE Monday night and a
weak front will approach from the nw. Models have been hinting at
some potential light showers ahead of this front on Tuesday, and
will only mention small chances mainly across southern in in the
morning, and across east central ky in the afternoon. A second front
looks to swing through on Wednesday as another shortwave rotates
around the parent trough. So, will leave slight chances for a shower
overnight Tuesday, and a chance for a few showers and storms on
Wednesday as instability looks a little better. Look for highs
around 80 and lows in the upper 50s to near 60 during this time.

Wednesday night - Thursday...

have higher confidence that the front will be through the area
during this mid-week time frame, with dry NW flow aloft and surface
high pressure briefly in control. So, will continue a dry forecast
with lows in the mid to upper 50s and highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Thursday night - Saturday...

overall placement of upper and surface features to end the work week
becomes a bit muddy, but there is a general idea that a strong storm
system will drop out of canada and into the great lakes, dragging a
cold front into the ohio river valley. Expect to see some unsettled
days (fri-sat) ahead of this feature with scattered thunderstorm
mention. Highs should continue mostly in the upper 70s to near 80,
with lows in the low 60s.

Aviation (06z TAF update)
Issued at 125 am edt Sun may 28 2017
brunt of the heavier thunderstorms now well south of the region,
with one wave of rains about to move into central ky. Best chance
for lightning will be down in bwg in the next 3-4 hours. After that
we will see a brief lull before the next better storm chances come
later this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds will pick up from
the southeast ahead of this front by late morning. Some of these
storms could be stronger with gusty winds and hail. Storm chances
should end by late evening.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
Ky... None.

In... None.

Short term... ... ..Bjs
long term... ... ... Bjs
aviation... ... ... .Rjs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisville, Standiford Field, KY13 mi45 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast66°F62°F87%1007.6 hPa
Louisville, Bowman Field Airport, KY16 mi48 minS 710.00 miFair66°F63°F90%1007.9 hPa
Fort Knox, KY16 mi1.7 hrsSW 910.00 miFair64°F61°F94%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from SDF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W4W4W6W4W4SW6SW8S4SW9W10W11SW4NE6S12
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CalmS4SE8SE5S9SW11S7
1 day agoS3SE3SE3S3S6SW6W10S6SW9S10S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.