Thursday, June29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greenbackville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 29, 2017 11:53 AM EDT (15:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:47AMMoonset 11:37PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 935 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 1 to 2 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds... Building to 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the late morning and early afternoon, then building to 3 to 4 ft late.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft late.
Sat..S winds 10 kt...increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft... Subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 935 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slowly slides off the coast through today...and will then remain anchored offshore through early next week. A slow-moving cold front will weaken north of the local area over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenbackville, VA
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location: 38.01, -75.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 291415
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1015 am edt Thu jun 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will reside off the mid atlantic coast through
Friday. A trough of low pressure will set up over the area for
late Friday night through Saturday.

Near term through tonight
Sfc high pressure was centered just off the mid atlc coast late
this morning. The high will push farther out to sea through
tonight with dry wx prevailing. Ssw flow will increase this aftn
resulting in warmer and slightly more humid conditions. Mostly
sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Mostly clear tonight
with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Short term Friday through Saturday
High pressure remains centered offshore Friday and Saturday,
resulting in warm afternoons with increased humidity levels.

Dry wx will prevail thru at least the first part of Friday for
the entire region. An isolated shower or TSTM could affect the
far southern tier of the area Fri aftn eve. Then, isolated to
sctd showers or tstms will be possible Sat aftn into sat
evening, as a trough of low pressure sets up over the region.

Highs on Fri will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows fri
night mainly in the lower 70s. Highs on Sat in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Long term period will feature a fairly typical summertime pattern
with a cold front weakening near or just N of the area Sat night sun
morning. Still capping pops at 20-40% Sat night (highest n) as
more significant forcing stays NW closer to the decaying front.

Sunday will see the front wash out across the local area, will
maintain 20% pops N NW and 30% pops most other areas (up to 40%
over northeast nc). Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Mon tue
will see the local area generally in light flow and minimal
forcing. It will be very warm and humid with enough aftn early
evening instability for ~20% pops most areas (and with a little
more instability will keep pops to near 30% for interior NE nc)
highs 90-95 f inland and mid- upper 80s lower 90s near the
coast. Lows generally 70-75 f. Gfs ECMWF diverge with respect to
details late Tue wed, the ECMWF suggesting building heat and
lower pops while the GFS supports slightly cooler wx and a higher
chance for daily tstms. Have genly split the difference and
just carried 20 to 30% pops during climo favored timeframe (late
aftn and evening). Highs continue to be 90-95 f inland and
upper 80s around 90 f along the coast.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
High pressure moves off the coast today allowing for more of a
southerly flow. A cold front over the midwest will approach
this weekend and then stall to the north of the area.

High confidence thatVFR conditions will continue through the 12z
taf period. Mainly clear skies and variable to light S winds
are anticipated overnight. Scattered cumulus, around 6000 feet,
develops mainly after 16z. Winds increase a bit out of the south
by this afternoon, occasionally gusting to 15-20 knots.

Outlook: afternoon evening showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday through Monday.

Marine
Latest weather analysis features sfc high pressure now centered
along and just offshore the SE va coast. Low-level sse flow
continues this morning ~10-15 kt. A weak surge has allowed winds
to increase over the past few hours, but are still predominately
sub-sca.

After a brief lull this morning through early afternoon, expect
a slightly stronger surge as pressure gradient tightens between
high pressure offshore and low pressure crossing the upper great
lakes southern ontario. SCA headlines for S surge (wind gusts to
20 to 25 kt) now in place for all of the
ches bay from this afternoon through late this evening, and through
early Friday morning for bay zones N of new pt comfort. Timing of
strongest winds appears slightly earlier per both hi-res cams and
synoptic models coming with the initial surge from mid to late afternoon
through midnight tonight.

Farther south in the bay and across the rivers, the gradient
slackens a bit faster and therefore expect SCA winds to end a bit
sooner, thus the midnight end time. Farther north, nwps and wavewatch
indicate seas increasing to near SCA threshold this evening, mainly
north of parramore island. Wavewatch nwps blend suggests mainly 4 ft
seas in these areas with the potential for seas approaching 5 ft
out 20 nm offshore. Given that timing is into the second period, and
any SCA over the northern coastal zones would be short-lived and
marginal, will hold off on SCA headline over the coastal waters for
now. Farther south should stay at or below 3-4 ft through the
period. Similar conditions Fri aftn evening, with another surge
expected Friday afternoon and evening. However, guidance still
maintains that this surge will be slightly slightly weaker compared
to Thu night. A slow moving cold front approaches from the NW sat
but weakens by the time it reaches the local area on Sunday. Outside
of any tstms, good boating conditions expected over the
upcoming holiday weekend, with sub-sca conditions expected with
winds 10-15 kt or less and seas mainly 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz632-634.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for anz630-631.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm tmg
short term... Jdm
long term... Lkb
aviation... Ajb jdm
marine... Mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 18 mi54 min 66°F1 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 27 mi54 min SSW 8.9 G 13 70°F 72°F1023 hPa (-0.5)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 32 mi54 min S 11 G 14 77°F 76°F1022.8 hPa (-0.5)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi54 min SW 14 G 17 76°F 75°F1021.9 hPa (-0.5)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi54 min SSW 15 G 16 1023.5 hPa (-0.4)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi64 min S 14 G 16 70°F 68°F1 ft1023.2 hPa (-0.6)66°F

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA7 mi60 minS 1010.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1022.7 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi60 minSSW 1210.00 miFair80°F63°F56%1022.4 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8W8NW9S9S11S8S12S13S10S9S6SW5S8SW6SW6S8SW7SW6S5S4S8----S10
1 day agoCalmN5SE10S9S12SW5W6W4CalmNW5NW8NW3W3W4NW9NW5NW7N5N3N4N8N7N5NW10
2 days agoW5SE11SE9S11S12S13S11S7S9S5S5S5S6S5S8S7S8SW3S6SW6W5N6N6N7

Tide / Current Tables for Franklin City, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Franklin City
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Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:33 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:13 PM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.70.70.70.50.40.20.1-0-00.10.30.50.60.70.70.60.40.30.20.10.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Channel (south end), Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Channel (south end)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:48 AM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:17 PM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.52.31.71.20.70.2-00.10.51.11.622.32.21.81.30.90.50.20.10.411.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.