Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greenbackville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:01PM Thursday September 21, 2017 9:57 AM EDT (13:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:05AMMoonset 7:07PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 704 Am Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late Friday night...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...mainly E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt...becoming W in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight...mainly E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft...mainly E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft...mainly E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft... Building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft... Building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon.
ANZ600 704 Am Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the weekend while tropical cyclone jose meanders south of the new england coast. SWells from distant hurricane maria will begin to impact the local area waters by this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenbackville, VA
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location: 38.01, -75.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211057
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
657 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain centered northwest of the area through the
weekend while tropical storm jose will linger south of the new
england coast. Hurricane maria is expected to track between the
bahamas and bermuda early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure building
northwest of the region. Some patchy fog will remain possible across
portions of the piedmont and NE nc through early this morning before
quickly dissipating after sunrise. Mostly sunny skies and
unseasonably warm temperatures (around 6-8 degrees above normal for
late september) are expected again this afternoon with highs ranging
from the low 80s near the coast to the upper 80s further inland. A
stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible across NE nc this
afternoon, but am expecting the majority of any precipitation to
stay well south of the region.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure building
northwest of the region. Some patchy fog will remain possible across
portions of the piedmont and NE nc through early this morning before
quickly dissipating after sunrise. Mostly sunny skies and
unseasonably warm temperatures (around 6-8 degrees above normal for
late september) are expected again this afternoon with highs ranging
from the low 80s near the coast to the upper 80s further inland. A
stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible across NE nc this
afternoon, but am expecting the majority of any precipitation to
stay well south of the region.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
High pressure remains strong invof ERN great lakes and interior
ne CONUS late in the weekend into Mon while a much weakened remnant
circulation (of jose) slowly tracks wwd toward the NRN mid-
atlantic coast (12z 20 GFS more aggressive in that scenario
than the 12z 20 ecmwf). Regardless... Expecting some increase in
clouds and will carry minimal pops by mon... ESP near the coast
as winds turn (a little) more onshore. Lows Sat night in the
l-m60s... Except u60s at the coast. Lows Sun night mainly in the
m-u60s. Highs Sun Mon in the u70s-around 80f at the coast... M80s
inland.

Wx conditions tue-wed will depend on track of tropical cyclone
maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of jose) would
bring increasing winds pops... Esp ERN portions of fa... More to
the E would result in drier wx. For now... Generally taking the
middle of the road blend of all guidance meaning... Vrb
clouds 20-40% pops (highest e) Mon night-tue night. Monitor
forecasts from TPC on maria through the weekend.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
GenerallyVFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as
high pressure influences our weather pattern. Any current patchy fog
quickly dissipates this morning. Winds will be out of the nne this
afternoon mainly 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook: generallyVFR dry conditions are anticipated through the
weekend period as high pressure builds into the region.

Marine
Tropical storm jose is located SE of CAPE cod early this
morning and is forecast to slowly back to the wsw today through
Sunday. Meanwhile, hurricane maria is located N of the dominican
republic early this morning and is forecast to track to the nnw
through Saturday and then nne through Monday about equidistant from
the carolina coast and bermuda.

Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas
generally 3-5ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall below
5ft today. However, the SCA for hazardous seas will continue, and
has been extended to 10z Saturday as seas are forecast to rebuild to
4-5ft later tonight into Friday. Seas are expected to remain
elevated, generally 4-6ft into the weekend as swell arrives from
maria. Scas for seas will likely be needed through the weekend. The
bulk of the forecast guidance keeps maria offshore during the early
to middle portions of next week. Monitor the NHC forecast for the
official forecast track of maria. A further increase in seas is
expected Monday through Wednesday along with an increasing northerly
wind Tuesday-Wednesday.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures are averaging ~1.5ft above normal in the
chesapeake bay and tidal rivers early this morning, with
1.0-1.5ft above normal for the ocean and mouth of the bay. Most
locations in the bay and tidal rivers are likely to reach or
exceed minor flood thresholds during the next high tide today,
with bishops head potentially approaching moderate this
afternoon. Coastal flood advisories have been extended to cover
the next high tide cycle. For the ocean-side and mouth of the
bay, ocean city is expected to touch minor flooding this
morning, with other locations along the coast falling a few
tenths short of minor flooding. Note, the primary coastal
flooding threat the the va ERN shore is on the bay-side.

Additional minor flooding is possible over the next few days as
tidal anomalies remain above normal due to the presence of
energetic swell from tropical storm jose and eventually
hurricane maria this weekend.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues today as swell nearshore waves will be slow to
subside.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until noon edt today for mdz024-025.

Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for
mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz089-090-099.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz093-095>097-523>525.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz100.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for vaz075-
077-078-084>086.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt
Saturday for anz650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Ajb
near term... Ajb
short term... Ajb
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajb
marine... Ajz
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 18 mi88 min 74°F3 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 27 mi58 min N 8 G 12 75°F 73°F1017 hPa (+1.4)
OCSM2 28 mi178 min 3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 32 mi58 min N 1.9 G 4.1 80°F 74°F1016.7 hPa (+1.4)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi58 min N 6 G 8 74°F 76°F1017.2 hPa (+1.3)
BTHD1 40 mi178 min 4 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi58 min N 8.9 G 11 1017.5 hPa (+1.6)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi68 min NW 9.7 G 12 73°F 71°F5 ft1016.3 hPa (+1.1)69°F

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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NE19
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NE6
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G29

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA7 mi64 minN 410.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1016.5 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi64 minNNW 510.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW10NW10W8
G16
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NW7NW4W4W3W3W4W4CalmCalmW3W3CalmNW5NW4NW4N4
1 day agoN13
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NW9NW10NW10NW10NW9NW8NW8NW9
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2 days agoNE16
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NE14NE12N9N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Franklin City, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Franklin City
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:26 PM EDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.60.40.20.1-0-0.10.10.30.50.70.80.80.70.50.30.20-000.20.50.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Channel (south end), Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Channel (south end)
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:23 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:26 AM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:49 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:50 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.70.3-0.1-00.41.11.72.22.62.52.11.50.90.4-0-0.20.10.71.31.92.32.42.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.