Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greenbackville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:18PM Saturday March 23, 2019 1:12 AM EDT (05:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:27PMMoonset 7:52AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1257 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
.gale warning in effect until 11 am edt this morning...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw early in the afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas around 2 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt, becoming N late in the evening, then increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
ANZ600 1257 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front has crossed the waters. High pressure will rebuild over the area for the weekend. Low pressure approaches from the west Monday, with a trailing cold front crossing the area Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenbackville, VA
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location: 38.01, -75.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230217
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1017 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move off the coast this evening. High pressure
will rebuild over the area for the weekend. Low pressure approaches
from the west Monday, with a trailing cold front crossing the area
Monday night.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 1015 pm edt Friday...

the shortwave trough that was rotating through the larger
eastern us close low has pushed off the mid-atlantic coast and
taken the showers and stronger winds with it. The rest of the
night will see high pressure slowly build eastward into the
area. The sky has already cleared and as the pressure gradient
slowly relaxes expect the winds to also begin to weak as well
with just a light 5 to 10 mph wind by morning. For
temperatures, did bump up the previous forecast just a little
based up the fact that the winds will still keep some mixing in
place to limit the radiational cooling. Also this is a little
more in line with the latest lav guidance as well.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday night
As of 315 pm edt Friday...

sfc high builds into the ohio valley sat, overhead Sat nite then
pushes off the carolina coast sun. Dry through the period. Highs sat
around 60 west of the bay, holding in the 50s near the water. Lows
sat nite mainly in the 30s, except a few upr 20s in those normally
colder spots. Return flow begins a warmup sun. Highs in the 60s west
of the ches bay, 50s along the coast. Increasing clouds Sun nite
ahead of a leading warm front from the low apprchg from the west. A
shwr psbl across NRN most zones late. Lows in the 40s.

Shwrs overspreads the area west to east Mon as the low pressure
tracks across the area. Highest pops in the afternoon. Mild ahead of
the trailing cold front with highs in the 60s except some 50s at the
beaches. A rather strong trailing cold front pushes across the area
mon night with pcpn ending behind it after midnite. Highest pops in
the evening. Kept it all liquid for now as it seems the pcpn will
end before the cold air filters south. Lows in the 30s north, 40-45
south.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 315 pm edt Friday...

strong cool canadian high pressure is progged (per 22 12z
numerical guidance) to build in from the N Tuesday in the wake
of the departing cold front and area of low pressure. There is
some timing differences amongst the guidance with respect to
moisture, with the GFS faster to bring in drier air, and the
ecmwf cmc slower to clear the moisture. Therefore, a 20-40% pop
has been maintained Tuesday morning, mainly for SRN va NE nc.

Highs Tuesday are forecast to be ~10-15f below seasonal
averages, with highs ranging from the mid 40s along the coast,
to around 50f inland. Lows Tuesday night range from the upper
20s N the the mid 30s se. Cool high pressure remains over the
area Wednesday into Wednesday night with dry and mostly
sunny clear conditions, and high temperatures in the upper 40s
to mid 50s, followed by lows in the low 30s N NW to around 40f
se. High pressure slides offshore Thursday into Friday resulting
in a warming trend (but remaining dry). Forecast highs reach
the mid 50s along the coast to low mid 60s inland Thursday, and
then upper 50s low 60s along the coast to mid upper 60s inland
Friday. Lows Thursday night Friday morning range from the upper
30s to mid 40s, then mid 40s to low 50s Friday night Saturday
morning.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 830 pm edt Friday...

a cold front producing a line of rain showers and wind gusts up
to 40 kt have moved through all sites this evening except kecg.

Line is weakening as it moves into nc. Kecg can see a quick
gust up to 35 kt as the line moves through. Winds had decreased
to 10 kt immediately after the passage of the line of showers.

Winds should increase tonight back to 15 kt with gust up to 25
kt before decrease, again, late tonight and into tomorrow
morning. Then once again, winds will be increasing 15-20 kt
with gust up to 25 kt for Saturday. Behind the cold front, skies
have cleared and will remain clear through the rest of the 00z
taf period.

Outlook:
high pressure will continue to build in for the weekend. Low
pressure along with a strong trailing cold front approaches from
the NW Monday, and crosses the area Monday night, with high
pressure building in from the N Tuesday. There is a likelyhood
for degraded flight conditions Monday night into early Tuesday.

Marine
As of 315 pm edt Friday...

gusty winds will continue over the waters the rest of the afternoon,
with no changes to current headlines. A secondary cold front will
pass over the waters this evening with an accompanying area of cold
air spilling into the region. The CAA surge combined with the steep
pressure gradient will result in restrengthening of wnw winds this
evening and overnight, especially across the northern bay and
offshore zones where winds will increase to 25-30 knots with gust 35-
40 knots. Elsewhere, strong SCA conditions and headlines will
continue for the rivers, lower bay, currituck sound and offshore
zones outside of the gale warning area. A brief surge of wind gusts
to 35 kt will accompany the front as it crosses all waters this
evening, but duration won't be long enough to expand current gale
warning. Will issue smws as needed. Waves in the bay tonight will
generally run 3-4 feet with seas offshore 5-7 feet.

Conditions begin to improve by Saturday afternoon with decreasing
winds and waves seas as high pressure builds closer to the area.

Marine conditions will be much improved Sunday with high pressure
overhead. The next system nears the area Monday with modest south
and southwesterly flow preceding it. A strong cold front is forecast
to cross the region Monday night into Tuesday with strong nne winds
in its wake. Scas will be likely, with the possibility of gales for
the southern coastal waters.

Hydrology
As of 315 pm Friday...

went ahead and issued a flood warning for the richmond city
locks. Otw, cancelled the flood warning at palmyra as it
quickly dropped below flood stage late this morning. Flood
warnings continue on the james at westham and meherrin river at
lawrenceville. See flwakq flsakq for details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Saturday for anz635>638.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Saturday for anz631-632-
634-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Saturday for anz633.

Gale warning until 6 am edt Saturday for anz630.

Gale warning until 11 am edt Saturday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Ess
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajz
aviation... Mpr cp
marine... Jdm
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 18 mi72 min 45°F4 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 27 mi60 min 42°F 44°F1009.3 hPa
OCSM2 28 mi192 min 1 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 32 mi54 min 44°F 50°F1010.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi54 min 44°F 48°F1011.2 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 47 mi82 min 43°F6 ft1006.8 hPa (+2.4)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi54 min 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA7 mi18 minWNW 14 G 2310.00 miFair43°F25°F49%1009.6 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi18 minW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F27°F57%1009.3 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE6NE6NE8NE6NE3NE5NE8NE7E6SE9SE15SE19
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2 days agoCalmE3CalmN4N3N3N5E12NE12NE14NE15--NE14NE13NE16NE17NE12NE11NE11NE9E7E8E8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Franklin City, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Franklin City
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:01 AM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:22 PM EDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.60.50.30.1-0.1-0.1-00.20.40.60.80.80.60.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.10.10.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Channel (south end), Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Channel (south end)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:44 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:43 AM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:56 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:07 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.50.80.2-0.2-0.300.71.422.42.52.21.50.90.3-0.1-0.200.61.42.12.62.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.