Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greenbackville, VA

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What's New / NOTES
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:22PM Sunday July 22, 2018 6:22 PM EDT (22:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:10PMMoonset 1:00AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 353 Pm Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers this evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt early in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely.
Mon night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 353 Pm Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A broad area of low pressure will linger to the west of the region today through the middle of the week allowing an unsettled pattern to persist.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenbackville, VA
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location: 38.01, -75.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 222016
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
416 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
A moist southerly flow, coupled with a low pressure trough
aloft over the tennessee valley and southeast u.S., will result
in an unsettled pattern through at least the middle of next
week.

Near term until 6 pm Monday evening
As of 400 pm edt Sunday...

with the heavy rainfall moving through the peninsula at this
time, and the potential for additional rainfall along the
boundary, have opted to expand the flash flood watch to include
the peninsula this evening. Otherwise, radar and surface obs
suggest that a bay breeze type boundary has set up just west of
the bay this afternoon. Expect the storms to ride up and along
this boundary this evening. With the precipitable water values
above 2.0 inches combined with potential training of echos, see
no reason to make any other changes to the watch. Some
indications that the heaviest rain may stay out of caroline and
hanover, but given the cells south of richmond, have opted to
keep them in for now. The evening shift can certainly cancel
early if need be.

Otherwise, expect showers and isolated storms to continue
across the east overnight as the upper trough starts to become
negative helping to allow for deep unidirectional flow out of
the south. This will continue through Monday, although the
precipitation will likely back to the west Monday afternoon as
the trough to the west becomes even more negatively tilted due
to another short wave moving around the trough. As such, have
maintained likely pops across the east for the entire night
tonight, and went with categorical across much of the area for
Monday.

Short term 6 pm Monday evening through Wednesday
As of 415 pm edt Sunday...

the wet and unsettled weather continues through Wednesday as
the trough over the ohio valley stays nearly stationary allowing
for continued deep and moist southerly flow. Will maintain
likely pops or greater through the period as there is really no
period where rain is more likely than another. Given the lack of
significant low level focus, it does not seem like there is a
significant flooding threat, but as the week GOES on, the more
saturated the ground will become so the potential for flash
flooding will become greater simply due to the water not being
able to soak into the ground. Wednesday may be the best day for
any heavy rainfall given that the upper trough will finally move
eastward helping to allow for better upper forcing.

It will be very humid through the period, but not terribly
warm. Highs generally in the low-mid 80s. Lows in the 70s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 400 pm edt Sunday...

after two days of fairly good consensus between models, the
most recent 12z GFS euro runs have diverged in their solutions
days 5-7 and beyond. Thursday will start off wet, especially in
the northern neck and delmarva. The GFS initiates afternoon
convection across much of the area, especially along and west of
i-95 on Thursday... While the euro lingers a low-end rain chance
along and east of i-95. Went with a gfs-favored solution to
begin the day, but trended more towards the euro Thursday night
by tapering chance pops eastward along east of the i-95
corridor. Friday, the best opportunity for rain will be across
extreme SE va NE nc, with more isolated convection further
northwest. Saturday will feature scattered afternoon storms
across much of the area, with action waning after sunset once
again. Sunday has the potential of being the most unsettled day
of next weekend, with consistent signals in the models of a
developing low pressure over the ohio valley. This will send a
modest impulse of mid-upper level energy eastward into our area,
sparking thunderstorms across the piedmont that move towards
the coast during the afternoon and evening hours.

Ensembles indicate the potential for a continued pattern of
troughiness wet weather across much of the mid-atlantic through at
least the beginning of next week. The typical "oven-baked" july
temperatures that we can experience this time of year will not be an
issue for now... As 850mb remain a consistent 16-18 degc. In other
words, afternoon 2m temps will remain in the upper 80s around 90
degf for thurs-sun, so no extreme heat to worry about. Overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s carry us into the start of the next work
week.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
As of 200 pm edt Sunday...

a rather unsettled period of weather will continue through
Monday. Broad southerly flow will allow for showers and
thunderstorms especially at phf orf ecg with brief ifr
conditions. Otherwise, the remaining sites will seeVFR this
evening. MVFR conditions return to all sites late tonight into
Monday with excessive low level moisture and additional showers
moving into the area due to the moist southerly flow.

Unsettled weather continues through Wednesday. Expect occasional
MVFR conditions at all sites through the period with some brief
ifr in heavier showers storms. Some improvement possible late in
the week.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Sunday...

latest analysis shows sfc low pressure and an upr-level trough
stationed off to the west, allowing for deep S SE flow over the fa.

Will continue inherited headlines with this forecast package... Sca's
over the bay and ocean, which have been extended through the 4th
period with not much pattern change expected through mid week. For
now left out the rivers and sound as it looks quite marginal, but
will monitor for potential SCA issuance there as well. Winds mainly
15-25 kt over the bay ocean, with 3-5 ft waves over the bay and seas
up to 6-8 ft over the ocean. Again, the pattern persists through
midweek with a sse wind of at least 10-20kt continuing along with
seas remaining AOB 5ft. Scas conditions are likely to be extended in
future updates for portions of the marine area, ESP over the ocean.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 pm edt Sunday...

similar setup as yesterday, with minor flooding likely during the
higher astronomical tide tonight, primarily along the bay side of
the lwr md ERN shore and the tidal potomac and bay adjacent to the
nrn neck.

A high risk of rip currents will continue through Mon for the nrn
beaches, with a moderate risk for the SRN beaches today increasing to
a high risk for mon. Dangerous shorebreak also continues.

Equipment
As of 320 pm edt Saturday...

kdox radar is inoperable due to a failure of the motor. All
parts will not arrive until Tuesday july 24. Return to service
is unknown at this time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm this evening to 5 am edt
Monday for mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Flash flood watch until midnight edt tonight for vaz064-
075>078-083>086-090-517>525.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Monday for vaz075-077-078.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Tuesday for anz630>632-634-
650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mrd
near term... Mrd
short term... Mrd wrs
long term... Bms
aviation... Tmg mrd
marine... Mas
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 18 mi52 min 75°F5 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 27 mi40 min SSE 9.9 G 15 79°F 76°F1012.5 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 32 mi34 min SSE 12 G 14 80°F 81°F1010.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi34 min SSW 24 G 31 74°F 85°F1011.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi34 min SE 1 G 2.9 1011.2 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi32 min SE 14 G 16 78°F 75°F6 ft1012.5 hPa (+0.8)78°F

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA7 mi28 minSSE 1210.00 miA Few Clouds81°F78°F91%1011.3 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi28 minSSE 8 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F75°F79%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE21
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SE12S12SW15
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SW7SW9SW5S4SE5SE6SE7SE14SE13
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1 day agoE8E11E8E10E10E10SE10SE9E6E9E10E12E13E13E13
G19
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G17
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2 days agoSE6E5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4CalmCalmCalmE4E8E7E6NE9SE7SE10SE11E10E10SE11

Tide / Current Tables for Franklin City, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Franklin City
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Sun -- 01:05 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     0.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:48 PM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.10.30.40.50.60.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.20.40.60.70.70.70.60.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Channel (south end), Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Channel (south end)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:31 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:49 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:06 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.91.31.61.91.91.61.30.90.60.20.10.40.81.31.82.22.42.31.91.51.10.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.