Tuesday, December11, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greenbackville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:43PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 1:54 PM EST (18:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 8:40PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1254 Pm Est Tue Dec 11 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds, subsiding to 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Rain.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ600 1254 Pm Est Tue Dec 11 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure slowly tracks eastward off the north carolina coast today, with high pressure returning on Wednesday. A brief surge of cold air will clip the northern zones early Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenbackville, VA
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location: 38.01, -75.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 111710
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1210 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure moves farther off the carolina coast this
afternoon. High pressure will build over the area in its wake
this afternoon through Thursday. Low pressure approaches from
the southwest Thursday night into Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1205 pm est...

no major changes to the going forecast, with forecast largely on
track. Nudged temps down in the piedmont slightly toward lav rap
numbers, with temp recovery a bit sluggish with what is still a
relatively deep snowpack. Otherwise, mainly clear sunny today
with a refreeze of any snowmelt by late evening through the
overnight. Lows in the upper teens to 20s inland... Lower 30s
along the coastal zones.

As of 700 am est Tuesday...

current GOES wv imagery depicts a NRN stream trough
diving through the great lakes, and a SRN stream trough pushing
across the southeast. Low pressure has re-intensified off the
carolina coast in response to the SRN stream trough. This is
resulting in clouds, along with some bands of light rain over
ne nc. Temperatures range widely across the area early this
morning, with upper teens low 20s across the NW with snow cover
and a partly cloudy sky, to the upper 30s around 40f over
coastal SE va NE nc with clouds and patches of light rain. In
between these locations, temperatures are mainly in the mid 20s
to low 30s. Secondary roads and overpasses will likely be slick
this morning with sub- freezing temperatures and an sps is in
effect through 10 am to highlight this potential.

The low will gradually move farther offshore today as high pressure
builds in from the w. Decreasing clouds are expected this morning,
with most locations becoming mostly sunny by aftn. Any lingering
light rain should move offshore shortly after 12z. Mixing is
expected to be limited today for areas with snow cover. Therefore,
forecast highs are generally around 40f low 40s inland, with mid 40s
closer to and along the coast.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

high pressure moves offshore Wednesday. A weak trough clips the
nrn mid-atlantic Thursday, with high pressure building across
new england in the wake of this system. Temperatures will be
slow to moderate through midweek given snow cover. Remaining dry
through the period as high pressure prevails under a partly to
mostly sunny clear sky.

Low temperatures tonight range from the low 20s in the piedmont, to
the upper 20s around 30f toward the coast. Highs Wednesday range
from the low mid 40s inland to the mid upper 40s at the coast. Highs
Thursday range from the low 40s NW to the low 50s se, after morning
lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 355 pm est Monday...

after a quiet mid-week, the pattern will become more active as we
head into the weekend. Models continue to indicate the development
of a low pressure system over the southern us Thursday which will
impact our area late Friday into Saturday. Rain overspreads the
region by Friday evening with the highest likelihood of pops by
Saturday night, rain may be moderate to heavy at times. Rain chances
continue into the Saturday afternoon, especially across the ne. At
this time, left any thunder message just south of our area where
models currently indicate better instability. Ahead of this system, a
deep southerly flow will transport abundant moisture into the region
allowing for pwat values to climb in excess of 1.5" Friday afternoon
into Saturday morning. Model output shows anywhere from 1 to 2
inches of QPF over the local area with this system. High QPF values
in addition to the melted snowfall from the previous winter storm
will set the stage for potential flooding issues.

Even with southerly flow of moisture on Friday, a surface wedge will
likely keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s NW to lower 60s se. Thought was to continue to trend
below guidance Friday, especially nw. Highs will generally range in
the low to mid 50s Saturday through Monday. Lows during the period
will generally remain above average.

Aviation 17z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 1205 pm est Tuesday...

low pressure is slowly moving farther off the outer banks at
midday. Sct-bkn midlevel clouds have pushed offshore, leaving
mainly clear sky across terminals at 18z TAF time. Remaining
mainly sunny clear sky through the TAF period this
aftn tonight, withVFR conditions to prevail through the period.

A nnw wind of 5-10kt this aftn will become W 5kt or less by
tonight as high pressure slides across the southeast.

Outlook: high pressure prevails Wednesday and Thursday. Low
pressure approaches from the SW Thursday night and Friday, and
tracks across the region Friday night and Saturday.

Marine
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

latest sfc analysis indicates ~1005 mb low pressure a few hundred
miles off the nc coast, with sfc high pressure centered over
northern va. There is still a decent pressure gradient across the
waters, especially south and east. Winds on the bay are out of the n
around 15 knots north 15-20 knots south. Winds have significantly
decreased across the NRN coastal waters, but nne winds are still
gusting to just above 25 kt south of CAPE charles. As a result, seas
remain around 8-9 ft over anz658 with 6-7 ft seas north of the va nc
border. The aforementioned area of low pressure will only slowly
move E through the day today. This will keep winds across the
southern zones elevated as they slowly turn to the NW by this aftn.

Expect ~15 kt winds north of CAPE charles ~20 kt to the south (w
higher gusts) through the day today. Waves will decrease to 2-3 ft
over most of the bay by around sunrise. The mouth of the bay will
continue to see elevated waves (~4 ft) through much of this morning,
so went ahead and extended the SCA until 15z. Seas will will slowly
subside with 4-5 feet N 6-7 feet S by this afternoon. Winds turn to
the W or wnw over all areas by tonight early Wed am and increase to
~20 kt over the northern ocean zones as a surge of slightly cooler
air aloft moves in from the wnw. Did not extend scas for the north
of parramore island past 00z Wed as conditions look to be marginal.

Went ahead and extended scas through 4 am Wed for the SRN three
ocean zones, as seas will be slow to subside below 5 ft (especially
closer to 20 nm offshore).

Seas continue to subside and winds decrease during the day on Wed as
a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Tranquil marine
conditions will persist through early Friday as high pressure
dominates the local weather. Another area of low pressure moves from
the SRN plains to the mid-atlantic southeast from late this week
through the weekend. As a result, a return to SCA conditions is
possible as this system impacts the area (late Fri through sun).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for anz654-656-
658.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz650-
652.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz mam
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Eri


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 18 mi55 min 47°F5 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 27 mi43 min NNE 7 G 8 42°F 45°F1018 hPa
OCSM2 28 mi175 min 4 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 32 mi37 min WNW 4.1 G 12 45°F 40°F1017.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi37 min WNW 9.9 G 12 38°F 39°F1018.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi37 min NNW 15 G 16 1018.9 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi65 min 51°F5 ft1017.9 hPa (-2.6)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA7 mi61 minNW 1010.00 miFair47°F25°F42%1017.5 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi61 minNW 810.00 miFair43°F28°F56%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N10N5N5N7N7N8N8N8N8NW7NW8NW10NW9N8NW7NW8N8NW9N8NW7NW7NW8NW10
1 day agoN9N11N11N11N11NE16
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2 days agoNW11
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NW9NW5NW4CalmN3N4N3N4N4N6N8N6N5N6N7N6N5N5N8N7N5N6N7

Tide / Current Tables for Franklin City, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Franklin City
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:30 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:09 PM EST     0.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:11 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.20.40.50.60.70.60.60.40.30.20.100.10.20.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Channel (south end), Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Channel (south end)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:18 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:33 AM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:06 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:54 PM EST     1.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.510.60.40.20.30.61.21.72.12.42.42.11.61.10.70.40.20.40.81.21.61.92

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.