Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 9:36 PM   Moonset 6:30 AM

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FXUS63 KDDC 250004 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 704 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather risk on Thursday for areas along and east of highway 83.

- Fire weather risk on Thursday for areas along and west of highway 83.

- Potential fire and severe weather risk for Saturday as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

18z obs and RAP upper air analysis shows a widespread cloud deck across southwest Kansas with the last areas of morning convection well to the south and east. 500 mb winds have a ridge across the Rockies with an embedded shortwave developing in the front range and a large closed low still well off the Pacific coast of California.

For tonight the position of the longwave trough/upper low should quickly move into the Colorado river basin in the desert southwest which will push the upper level ridge eastward into the central plains. With this we will also see a layer of warmer air in the mid levels with many models showing around 8-10 (C)
700 mb temperatures which will be important to monitor as it will affect our storm chances on Thursday. Ahead of the warm front we should have a 700 mb shortwave coming out of the front range from eastern Colorado through central Kansas and with good moisture advection along the front and wave we should see an area of thunderstorms develop mainly after midnight for areas along and east of highway 83. These storms should move quickly to the east into central Kansas by morning and with low CAPE values forecast this rain and storm should stay below severe limits.

Thursday the SPC has put an enhanced risk of severe weather for areas along and east of highway 83. Three things we have been noticing so far that could mitigate the risk is how much thunderstorm outflow/clouds/colder air hangs around from what we get tonight in our eastern zones. Also the warm mid layers at 700 mb will produce a strong cap all across southwest Kansas with the 25th percentile temperatures at 8 (C) and 90th at 9-10 (C) suggesting a >90 % chance of a strong cap. With temperatures in the mid levels that warm we would need the areas with moisture to get to near 90 degrees to break the cap which is not looking promising at this point. Also models are lagging the forcing at 500 mb until well after 00Z to also help break the CAP. Some CAMs have been showing no convection at all however if a storm can break the CAPE the bulk shear and CAPE values would support supercells capable of hail greater than 2 inches and damaging winds. If supercells can stay discrete through 7 pm the low level jet will increase and introduce a tornado threat and we can't rule out a strong tornado potential. This is what would be call a classic conditional severe weather risk.

Fire weather threat west of highway 83 will be the result of a dryline moving in from the west and reaching to the Scott City- Liberal line and southwest winds will be 20-30 mph with relative humidity values falling to below 15%.

Thursday night any convection that develops will race to the north and east as the 991 mb surface low moves into southwest Nebraska and the dryline/cool front moves to the east.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Friday the low from the surface to 500 mb will move into central Nebraska and will sweep drier air through southwest Kansas.
Winds will increase through the day especially for areas along and north of K-96 with wind speeds at 20-30 mph with higher gusts.

Saturday will have both severe and fire weather potential in southwest Kansas. Medium range ensemble models have an upper low moving from the four corners region Saturday morning to southeast Colorado by late afternoon. Moisture profiles have the highest levels in central Kansas with the drier air for much of southwest Kansas along and west of highway 283. Elevated to critical fire weather potential is high (>80%) as winds will be out of the southwest at 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Severe weather at this point looks to be mainly along and east of highway 281 with the greater potential more into central Kansas.

After Saturday ensemble upper air forecasts go more zonal and we will go dry and warmer for the middle parts of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Aviation weather conditions will deteriorate this evening with widespread IFR/LIFR conditions developing particularly in the 09-15Z time frame...later up north toward HYS and earlier down south toward LBL terminal as the warm front lifts north. The forecast at HYS terminal is particularly challenging in that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop overnight near or just east of HYS, which will likely spread an outflow boundary south across HYS some time in the 09-13Z time frame. This thunderstorm outflow boundary will likely result in an easterly wind (if not slightly northeasterly) and may reach as far as DDC mid-morning, however we will keep winds at DDC out of the south-southeast Thursday morning. HYS will likely remain in the low stratus and IFR/LIFR flight category much of the day Thursday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

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