Friday, September22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jetmore, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:37PM Friday September 22, 2017 1:14 AM CDT (06:14 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 8:20PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jetmore, KS
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location: 38.04, -100     debug


Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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Fxus63 kddc 220537
afdddc
area forecast discussion
national weather service dodge city ks
1237 am cdt Fri sep 22 2017

Updated aviation section...

Short term (this afternoon through Friday)
issued at 1235 pm cdt Thu sep 21 2017
south winds will continue to ramp up this afternoon, in response
to strong cyclogenesis east of denver. Wind gusts near 40 mph are
expected through sunset. Unseasonably hot temperatures in the 90s
will again contribute to low relative humidity and an enhanced
risk for wildfire spread. Strong dryline with respectable
convergence will continue to sharpen through the late afternoon
along the eastern zones. Ample instability exists along this
boundary (cape upwards of 3000 j kg), and lapse rates are steep as
the EML overspreads the moisture axis. Can't rule out an isolated
thunderstorm in the SE zones, most likely in the vicinity of
barber county, but the odds of initiation are low. Kept grids dry
with pops < 15%. Should a storm develop, strong to severe
downbursts would be the primary threat for a few hours, before
convergence is lost on the retreating dryline this evening.

Tonight... Windy and unseasonably warm. South winds will remain
elevated and gusty all night, averaging 15-25 mph, in response to
a strong low level jet. With 12z NAM forecasting 850 mb winds of
55-60 kts, gustiness will prevail through sunrise. With the winds
preventing mixing, and moisture advection increasing from the
s se, temperatures tonight Friday morning will be warm and way
above normal for the first day of fall. Forecasting temperatures
to hold in the 70-73 range along and east of us 283 (normal is
lower 50s). In fact, the record warmest low temperature on record
for dodge city for sept 22nd is 69, set just last year in 2016.

A very balmy way to start autumn.

Friday... Continued windy and unseasonably warm. No change in the
synoptic pattern, with leeside cyclogenesis again inducing strong
south winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures at 850 mb
do inch back about 2c, so forecasting lower to mid 90s as opposed
to upper 90s. Also, increased boundary layer dewpoints will help
hold temperatures down somewhat. With the lee trough dryline and
its associated convergence situated further west near the co ks
border, this is where is any convective initiation will be favored
late Friday. Pop grids through 7 pm are relegated to areas along
and west of us 83, which line up with spc's marginal 5% wind hail
probability from the day 2 outlook.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 200 pm cdt Thu sep 21 2017
medium range models including the 12z runs of gfs ECMWF show great
continuity from run to run, showing a highly meridional synoptic
pattern slowly inching eastward this weekend through Monday.

Forecast builder model blends, 12z mex guidance and 12z ECMWF all
agree with each other, and their previous runs, that the best
opportunity for sorely needed rainfall in SW ks will be during the
Sunday through Monday timeframe.

Saturday... Great basin upper low only makes it to near las vegas
by late day. As such, the best forcing for convection will remain
focused along the co ks border vicinity. Pop grids increase with
westward extent, with likely category justified roughly west of a
garden city-liberal line. CAPE shear and forcing will support some
strong to marginally severe wind hail across the western zones.

Sunday and Monday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected,
with at least some areas receiving beneficial rainfall. Upper low
in southern utah Sunday morning slowly ejects NE to be near rapid
city by late Monday. Associated frontal boundary and convergence
will edge slowly eastward across SW ks during this period, with
several rounds of showers and storms expected. Likely pops offered
by the model blend are warranted, but it does not appear to be a
washout scenario either. Storm total QPF grids came up with a
general 1-2 inches across SW ks, with higher amounts focused west
of us 283, where forcing will be better defined.

Temperatures will be on a noticeable cooling trend Saturday
through Monday, as heights and thickness continue to lower, and
clouds and rainfall help hold temperatures down.

Tuesday... Rain chances will be drying up, as surface high builds
into the central plains. Crisp autumn temperatures will prevail
Tuesday and Wednesday, with afternoon readings holding near 70,
and lows dropping into the 40s.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1221 am cdt Fri sep 22 2017
vfr conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Breezy
southerly winds will continue today with llws expected before
sunrise. Wind gusts up to 30 knots will be possible this
afternoon.

Fire weather
Issued at 1235 pm cdt Thu sep 21 2017
red flag warning remains in effect along and west of us 283 this
afternoon and early evening. South winds will increase sharply
this afternoon, averaging 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph.

Dry intrusion from the west today is more marginal compared to
Tuesday. Regardless, unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures well
into the 90s will drive min rh into the 15-20% range through early
evening. Expecting critical wind rh west of the dryline this
afternoon. South winds will remain elevated and gusty overnight.

Strong south winds will continue on Friday, but increased boundary
layer moisture on Friday will keep min rh well above critical
levels (30-35%).

Preliminary point temps pops
Ddc 70 94 69 86 10 10 10 20
gck 66 93 66 83 0 10 30 50
eha 61 89 63 79 0 30 40 60
lbl 65 92 66 83 10 10 30 40
hys 73 94 71 87 10 0 10 20
p28 72 92 69 89 10 0 0 10

Ddc watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Turner
long term... Turner
aviation... Hovorka_42
fire weather... Turner


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dodge City, Dodge City Regional Airport, KS18 mi82 minS 22 G 329.00 miFair and Breezy80°F68°F67%1005.3 hPa

Wind History from DDC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S8S7S7S6S8S7S7S16S13
G21
S16S18
G23
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G27
S25
G31
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SW25
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G35
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G29
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G36
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G36
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G32
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1 day agoNW17
G21
N12
G21
N12N12N11N12N11N14N18
G26
N14
G21
N16
G22
N12
G18
NE14
G20
NE9
G18
E7--E6E5E6E5E6E6SE6S4
2 days agoS12S13S11SE9S11S10SE10S12
G18
S20
G28
S20
G27
S21
G26
S20
G27
S23
G31
S28
G33
S26
G39
SW29
G36
SW25
G34
S14
G23
S11S9S14S17S18
G25
S14
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Dodge City, KS (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dodge City, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.