Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 8:04 PM   Moonset 5:32 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 229 Am Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 knots - .increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. A slight chance of very light drizzle this morning. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Thu - W winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Thu night - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Fri - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Fri night - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 knots.

PZZ500 229 Am Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
light to gentle southwesterly breezes continue this morning and through the early afternoon today. Towards the afternoon, winds slowly turn to become more northerly and moderate to fresh and last through the early portion of Friday. Starting Friday afternoon, northerly winds strengthen to become strong and gusty, with gale force gusts likely into the late night. Northwest swell continues to move through the waters this week with a period of about 10-12 seconds. Small southerly swell with a period of about 14-16 seconds persists through the week as well.

FXUS66 KMTR 241200 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 500 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1228 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A deep marine layer and expansive cloud coverage will keep temperatures cool through Thursday before a cold front brings strong wind on Friday. Clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures are expected this weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1228 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Stratus coverage is quite expansive early this morning due to a deep marine layer. Some light drizzle is possible along windward facing slopes this morning, although there hasn't been any measurable precipitation so far. The cloud cover will keep morning temperatures near normal, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal this afternoon.

The weather pattern is fairly dynamic over the next few days. A persistent low pressure system off the coast of San Francisco will finally weaken and open up into a trough late today, bringing the return of NW flow. The supporting upper-level cut-off low will evacuate to the east on Thursday, allowing a small amplitude ridge to become established. This high pressure will squish the marine layer from around 4,000 ft on Wednesday to around 1,500 ft on Thursday. This change will bring lower, but less expansive cloud coverage and the potential for morning fog. This regime won't last long as a new cold front and associated trough move will move through on Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The Weather Prediction Center forecasts the cold front to move through Friday morning, with a slight chance for light rain on either side. The biggest impact from this system will be strong NW wind behind the front. Our official forecast has gale force wind gusts along the coast of Sonoma, Marin, and Big Sur on Friday afternoon and evening. NBM probabilities are above 95% of confirming the previous sentence. All of this has led me to strongly consider a wind advisory. While there is still some uncertainty if the threshold will be hit between Marin and Monterey counties (roughly a 30% chance), I'd rather have the advisory out with as much lead time as possible to allow the Rocky Creek slip-out repair crew time to secure the crane for high winds. The downside of the early issuance is that the coverage may need to be expanded over the next 24 hours if the rest of the coast or inland areas start trending higher in the guidance.

Winds will remain strong through the night Friday before gradually decreasing through the weekend. The cold front will also usher in a dryer airmass with much less cloud coverage expected this weekend, especially for inland areas. This will allow temperatures to return to normal through the weekend and into early next week.

Some super long range guidance is starting to hint at a potential storm during the first weekend in May. While there have been some aggressive deterministic runs lately, the current ECMWF and GEFS ensemble means both keep the total precipitation under 1/2" at San Francisco. Even that would be a lot for May, however, which typically averages about 1/2" for the entire month. The Climate Prediction Center is also taking note of this and showing slightly wetter than normal conditions in the 8-14 day outlook (May 1-7). This is just something to keep an eye on for now.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Low to mid level clouds continue to shroud much of the region.
Despite this, most terminals are currently VFR and expected to remain so through the evening tonight, though by a slim margin.
Cloud ceilings are likely to continue to hover in the 3200-4000' range this morning, just barely escaping MVFR CIG thresholds. That being said, models do favor a few select terminals to see intermittent MVFR CIGs this morning, namely KOAK and KSTS. Though, chances of achieving MVFR conditions are only in the 50% range.
Therefore, confidence is low-moderate. Aside from these terminals, low and mid level clouds will continue to be present through the TAF period with VFR prevailing. Winds this afternoon will increase out of the W/SW to become breezy between 10-15 knots. Into the evening, winds become more westerly but slowly ease. Stratus and low clouds are expected to filter back inland into the early morning of Thursday, brining MVFR CIGs for most terminals within the SF bay and southwards. Slight ridging will help to lower CIG heights through the nighttime hours of Wednesday into Thursday, though highest confidence is in maintaining MVFR at this time.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR expected to last through the early morning of Thursday. There currently stands between a 45-50% chance that KSFO may see MVFR CIGs develop over the terminal between now and around 17Z. That being said, confidence is highest in maintaining VFR conditions, though this will be something to watch closely through the next few hours. Winds SW this afternoon becoming W into the evening breezy and gusting around 20 knots. Stratus returns in the early to mid morning of Thursday bringing MVFR CIGs to the SF Bay region.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR expected to prevail through the evening of Wednesday, though low to mid level clouds will continue to bring overcast skies through much of the day today. Confidence on maintaining VFR is only moderate. Into the afternoon, winds increase to become onshore and breezy, with gusts upwards of 20 knots likely at KMRY. Stratus and MVFR conditions return into the late evening of Wednesday and last through the remainder of the TAF period with CIGs gradually lowering. At this time, thoughts are that MVFR will be maintained, though dipping into IFR territory Thursday morning is not out of the question yet.

MARINE
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 459 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Light to gentle southwesterly breezes continue this morning and through the early afternoon today. Towards the afternoon, winds slowly turn to become more northerly and moderate to fresh and last through the early portion of Friday. Starting Friday afternoon, northerly winds strengthen to become strong and gusty, with gale force gusts likely into the late night. Northwest swell continues to move through the waters this week with a period of about 10-12 seconds. Small southerly swell with a period of about 14-16 seconds persists through the week as well.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

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Pinole Point
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Wed -- 01:14 AM PDT     5.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:32 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:01 AM PDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:40 PM PDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM PDT     2.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:04 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pinole Point, San Pablo Bay, California, Tide feet

Wilson Point 3.9 mi NNW
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:48 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:23 AM PDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:32 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:00 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:21 AM PDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:31 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:45 PM PDT     -0.22 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:39 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:04 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:09 PM PDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wilson Point 3.9 mi NNW, San Pablo Bay, California Current, knots

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