Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. George Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:19PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:23 PM EDT (00:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:47AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 732 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Waves 4 ft. A chance of showers this evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm...decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 5 ft... Subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft... Subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 732 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight, followed by a secondary cold front Wednesday. High pressure will return late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George Island CDP, MD
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location: 38.04, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 232353
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
753 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the area late tonight
and push east of the chesapeake bay Tuesday morning. High
pressure will gradually build across the region during the
second half of the week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Frontal boundary resides from ohio through khts to western south
carolina at this time. A line of thunderstorms continue just
east of this axis, near a plume of favorable moisture (dewpoints
in the 60s). Winds aloft will become increasingly favorable as
well, with a low level jet of 50-60 kt centered around 5000 ft.

Winds of 40 kt likely reach down to 1000 ft or so... Without any
mixing. Given these kinematics, shear profiles exceptionally
favorable. Instability, on the other hand, meager. It remains to
be seen how effectively severe gusts will mix. Its been good in
southwest virginia, but with the loss of daytime heating, that
trend should decrease. Have a tornado watch for nelson augusta
counties, where the threat the best.

That leaves the synoptic wind threat. Am quite concerned about
the ridges, and have issued a wind advisory for that. There will
be a certain amount of vertical transport in just showers. Am
uncertain of what the magic formula will be, but included
counties with several hundred feet elevation in the advisory.

That ended up as roughly i-95 west. The time fram of wind
concern roughly now through midnight or 06z along west of the
blue ridge. By midnight, the low level jet will spread east to
include the i-95 corridor, lasting until sunrise or just before.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
Cdfnt will push east of the bay by 12z with showers ending.

Still mild under westerly flow. Upper trough axis crosses the
area Wed (gfs) or Wed night (ecmwf) with temps staying in the
60s during the day and 40s at night. Any precip would be
confined to the upslope areas.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Troughing will remain entrenched over the eastern CONUS through the
period as ridging persists out west and over the north atlantic.

This will lead to near normal temperatures late this week into the
weekend. A spoke of energy will rotate around an upper low stationed
just southwest of james bay likely bringing another period of
unsettled weather at some point next weekend, but timing placement
details remain fuzzy this far out.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Shallow line of convection will move across terminals tonight
first at kcho between 01z-03z and then across the rest of the
terminals between 03z-09z. MVFR CIGS and wind gusts to 45-50 kt
can be expected with this line of showers.

MainlyVFR expected late in the week with light flow.

Marine
Winds are expected to strengthen rapidly tonight in response to
strengthening low-level jet. Main channel of the bay and lower
potomac should experience gale force winds easily while the
upper bay and upper potomac the winds will depend more on
strength intensity of convection. Think there could be a 3-hr
period where they also experience brief gales, so raised the
gale warning everywhere. Convective line moves east of the bay
by 15z Tue at the latest with winds diminishing and showers
ending. Smws may also be required later tonight.

Light flow with high pressure over the waters thu-fri.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels are expected to rise quickly this evening as srly
flow strengthens. Estofs performing much better than etss as it
typically does in srly flow, but magnitude of surge is almost
always overestimated especially in the upper parts of the bay.

Don't have enough confidence to raise an advzy for baltimore and
havre de grace, but have enough confidence that annapolis will
experience minor coastal flooding for the next two high tide
cycles, so raised the advzy for them.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for dcz001.

Md... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for mdz003>006-011-
503>508.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 pm edt Tuesday for mdz014.

Va... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for vaz026>031-037>040-
050>056-501-502-505>508.

Wv... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for wvz050>053-055.

Marine... Gale warning until 8 am edt Tuesday for anz530>533-535>542.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
anz530>533-537>542.

Gale warning until 3 pm edt Tuesday for anz534-543.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Hts
short term... Lfr
long term... Dfh
aviation... Hts lfr dfh
marine... Lfr dfh
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 4 mi53 min S 18 G 23 73°F 68°F1013.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 7 mi53 min SSE 21 G 23
44042 - Potomac, MD 9 mi43 min SE 19 G 23 72°F 1012.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 20 mi53 min SE 19 G 22 71°F 70°F1013.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi53 min SSE 24 G 27 71°F 1014.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi53 min SE 18 G 22 71°F 69°F1014.5 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi53 min SE 15 G 19 71°F 69°F1011.5 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi43 min S 19 G 25 72°F 1014.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi43 min S 21 G 27 73°F 1013.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 43 mi53 min SE 22 G 26 1015.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi53 min 71°F 68°F1015.2 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi53 min ESE 2.9 72°F 1014 hPa67°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD8 mi30 minSE 11 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F66°F81%1013.4 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi31 minSSE 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast71°F66°F87%1013.6 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi48 minno data10.00 miFair74°F61°F67%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE3CalmE3E3CalmE3E3E3E3E3E3CalmE4E7SE6E9
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1 day agoCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SE6SE4E7SE4E4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3N4Calm3CalmE3E3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Lynch Point, Yeocomico River, Virginia
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Lynch Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:03 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:51 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:09 PM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.81.11.31.41.310.60.40.20.10.20.50.81.21.41.51.41.20.90.60.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Mon -- 12:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:26 AM EDT     0.33 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:14 AM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:19 PM EDT     0.58 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:08 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:13 PM EDT     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.300.30.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.40.60.50.30-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.