Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. George Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:55PM Friday April 26, 2019 1:39 AM EDT (05:39 UTC) Moonrise 1:04AMMoonset 11:03AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1036 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am edt Friday through late Friday night...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. A chance of showers through the night.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will move north over the waters Friday morning. A cold front will cross from west to east Friday afternoon and evening. A weak ridge of high pressure will move overhead late Saturday followed by another low pressure system on Sunday. Small craft advisories will be required Saturday, with gale warnings possible. Small craft advisories may be necessary again Sunday and Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George Island CDP, MD
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location: 38.04, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 260122
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
922 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis
A warm front stalled in central virginia tonight will lift north
across the region Friday morning. Low pressure will track
from the ohio valley to the eastern great lakes Friday, pulling
a cold front across the area Friday afternoon. High pressure
will build in behind this front for the early part of the
weekend. Another storm system could approach the region Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Frontal boundary is residing in central virginia this evening
will more or less remain in place overnight. Warm advection and
approaching upper trough will enhance shower activity overnight.

Some mainly elevated instability may develop and an isolated
thunderstorm or two is also possible, mainly across eastern wv
and va. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday night
Surface warm front will remain in central va early Friday
morning, but should rapidly progress northeastward through the
area during the mid and late morning hours. Meanwhile, surface
low pressure will move northeastward through the eastern great
lakes during the day, with its attendant surface cold front
crossing the region during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Some showers and or elevated isolated thunderstorms may
be ongoing early Friday morning, with activity waning during the
late morning hours after the surface warm front lifts north.

This will allow for temperatures to rise and cause surface-based
instability to develop. A few models suggest significant
instability of greater thatn 1500 j kg, but most are not as
unstable, likely due to lingering clouds limiting insolation.

However, this should be adequate, when combined with strong low
to mid level wind field and 40 knots or so of bulk shear, to
set the stage for strong to locally severe thunderstorms, mainly
from the blue ridge mountains eastward, with the highest
probability of severe across portions of central va, eastward to
dc, and into southern maryland where a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms was introduced.

Showers thunderstorms will likely develop around noon or so
across eastern WV and central va, and move eastward across the
region, exiting east of the chesapeake bay by 7 pm. The highest
threat window for severe thunderstorms will likely exist between
2 pm and 6 pm. Several discrete cells are possible ahead of what
may become a more organized developing squall line. The primary
threat will be isolated damaging wind gusts, but given
low level directional shear and relatively high helicity values,
an isolated tornado is also possible, with the highest
probabilities in southern md.

Heavy rainfall will also occur with these showers thunderstorms,
and while a widespread flood event is not likely, an isolated
incident of flooding is possible if any training thunderstorms
occur. The flood threat is somewhat lower than a week ago since
the weather has been dry for nearly a week now.

Highs on Friday will range from the 60s to low 70s, with coolest
readings in the mountains where the surface cold front will
arrive first, fairly early in the day.

The front will then push eastward Friday night with strong
west-northwest flow following behind. Gusty winds are expected
with 30-40 mph likely, although mixing may be limited at night.

It's possible a wind advisory may be needed, especially across
the higher elevations, but uncertainty exists at this time. The
wind field begins to weaken Saturday but mixing will increase
during the daylight hours, so gusty winds may actually MAX out
Saturday morning. Highs Saturday in the 60s to around 70f.

A weak ridge of high pressure moves overhead Saturday evening
before shifting eastward and offshore by Sunday morning as a
weak area of low pressure approaches. Some showers become
possible Saturday night.Lows in the 40s to low 50s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
A cold front will cross the area Sunday afternoon. Moisture and
instability will be limited with the best moisture and
instability focused to our region's north. Rainfall amounts will
be light. Dry weather is expected Sunday night as strong high
pressure builds in from the northwest.

Moisture returns Monday night as high pressure shifts east. A
developing front over the ohio valley will be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms. Although disturbances will move along
the front, the front will remain nearly stationary with very
little shower or thunderstorm activity initially. Expect
unsettled weather to redevelop toward the middle and latter part
of the week with a chance for thunderstorms.

Aviation 01z Friday through Tuesday
Showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms will develop this
evening and continue into Friday morning. Reductions to MVFR
are expected, with the highest probabilities of more consistent
MVFR ceilings at mtn mrb.

A strong cold front will then cross the terminals Friday.

PredominantVFR MVFR anticipated, but local ifr likely within
showers storms. In addition, local gusty winds (40-50 kt)
possible in stronger storms. Placement of these cells
problematic this far out, but the general time frame for strong
winds wind shift will be mid afternoon mrb cho and late
afternoon at the hubs (iad dca bwi).

Gusty northwest winds will continue behind the front Friday
night into Saturday before diminishing Saturday night. Gusty
nw winds anticipated once again Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening behind another frontal passage.

A few showers are also possible Monday night. Conditions could
briefly become MVFR in these showers.

Marine
Generally light winds expected on the waters through tonight.

Flow which is predominantly northerly this afternoon will
become south this evening and tonight as a warm front slowly
crosses the waters.

By Friday, a sharp cold front will be approaching the waters.

While mixing won't be ideal, there will be a healthy gradient
wind in advance of this front. A small craft advisory is in
effect beginning at 12 noon. The environment will also become
favorable for development of clustered showers thunderstorms
Friday afternoon capable of producing gusty winds in excess of
34 knots and possibly up to 50 knots, and special marine
warnings may become necessary.

In the wake of the cold front Friday night into Saturday the
gradient remains tight, with 30-35 kt (and depending upon model
solution, perhaps up to 40 kt) still available. Momentum
transfer will be more optimal. A SCA is in effect, but an
upgrade to gale may be needed. The strong winds will continue
into Saturday morning before gradually relaxing during the
afternoon hours.

Small craft advisory conditions expected Sunday and Sunday
night with frequent gusts to around 25 knots. Winds diminish
below criteria later Sunday night through Monday night.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am Friday to 6 am edt Saturday for
anz530>543.

Synopsis... Mm rcm
near term... Mm rcm
short term... Mm rcm
long term... Klw
aviation... Mm klw rcm
marine... Mm klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 4 mi45 min ESE 6 G 7 62°F 66°F1009.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 7 mi45 min ENE 4.1 G 4.1
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 20 mi45 min ESE 2.9 G 6 61°F 62°F1009.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi45 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 60°F 1010.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi45 min E 7 G 8.9 60°F 67°F1009.9 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi45 min E 6 G 8 63°F 68°F1008.9 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi45 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 64°F1007.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi45 min 59°F 66°F1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD8 mi46 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F55°F84%1009.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi47 minN 010.00 miOvercast60°F55°F86%1010 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi56 minN 010.00 miOvercast59°F51°F77%1010.5 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair61°F53°F78%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3N4NE5E4E6NE5E7E4NE4NE8E85NE8NE5E8E5NE5NE8E4E4Calm
1 day agoSW9W7W4CalmSW5SW4CalmW3NW7NE54W6SW9W73SW6W7CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW4CalmCalmSW5SW3S5S7SE5SE8SE6SE7SE7SE8SE7SE9SE6SE7S6S4

Tide / Current Tables for Lynch Point, Yeocomico River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Fri -- 02:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:15 AM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:11 PM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 06:26 PM EDT     0.32 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.3-0.20.10.30.50.40.3-0-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.30.30.2-0-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.