Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mineral, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:59 AM EDT (10:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:16PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 436 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm edt this afternoon through this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through Monday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 436 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will gradually lift north of the area through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the ohio valley Sunday night and cross the region Monday. High pressure will build across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be needed late Monday into early Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mineral, VA
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location: 38.06, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 190754
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
354 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will push northeast of the area this morning. A
cold front will approach from the ohio valley Sunday night and
cross the region Monday. High pressure will return for the
middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
Thunderstorms that developed in the virginia piedmont late
Saturday evening have been tracking onto the eastern shore.

Surface analysis suggests that a weak warm front resides in this
vicinity. The thunderstorms have outrun limited instability;
factor in the diurnal cycle, do not believe that there will be
additional showers thunderstorms through daybreak. Latest cams
on board with this scenario.

Since the forecast area will reside in the warm sector today,
ample daytime heating is anticipated. Temperatures have been
observed several degrees above guidance past couple of days;
have followed this lead, forecasting a 90 degree day across
metro dc south. Temperatures at 850 mb near 18c support this
scenario.

There will be two zones of possible convection today. One will
be along i-95, driven by the greater diurnal heating (and
possible bay breeze boundaries). The second, more extensive
area, will be in advance of shortwave crossing the great lakes.

Lowering heights and 0-3 km shear 35-40 kt will act upon the
warm unstable airmass and terrain circulations, inducing
clusters of thunderstorms emanating off the mountains by early
afternoon. These thunderstorms likely will reach the metro
corridor late this afternoon or early this evening. Due to the
airmass in place, it will take tall storms to generate a hail
threat (freezing levels around 12,000 ft), but downburst winds
certainly a concern. SPC slight risk as been expanded south to
account for these risks.

Thunderstorms will be weakening somewhat tonight as they would
have outrun the better forcing mechanisms after dark. However,
chance pops likely will linger until early morning.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As low pressure continues to track down the st lawrence seaway
Monday, the attendant cold front will be crossing the northeast
and mid atlantic. While instability will be less than Sunday,
decent CAPE and shear profiles will coincide with frontal
convergence. Hence, the frontal zone should be marked by
scattered showers thunderstorms. Again, gusty winds will be a
threat--this time sub-severe--as model soundings have indicated
for a couple of days now a potential to mix 30-40 kt. Any
activity should push south east of the area before sunset as a
cooler and drier airmass advects in. Monday night's temperatures
should be back in the 50s.

High pressure will build across the area from central canada
Tuesday. Believe gusty northwest winds (15-20 kt) will continue
in the morning on the back side of the departing low. The cold
advection will be responsible for highs around 70.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
A upper level high will build over our region through Saturday. High
pressure at the surface will be in place over the mid-atlantic and
the southeast us. This set up will lead to a warming trend
throughout next week. As the upper level high remains over our
region, upper level shortwaves will move through the system and
affect our area periodically. There is still a lot of uncertainty on
when and where these disturbances will move through the mid-
atlantic. The location of the disturbances will all depend on the
overall location of where the upper level high ridge settles along
the east coast. The main result of this setup will be the potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form and move through our
region each day.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Patchy valley fog has been developing in the piedmont overnight.

One of the forecast challenges at this time is whether this
development will spread to impact any of the terminals,
especially in light of passing showers thunderstorms providing
wet ground at iad and especially dca. At this time, have stopped
short of introducing restrictions at the hubs, although have fog
at iad's doorstep (6sm). Don't discount its occurrence, but
don't have confidence to include.

Later today, scattered-numerous thunderstorms anticipated to
develop in daytime heating... A few along i-95, but more in the
mountains, propagating east to the coastal plain (arriving at
dca bwi after 21z). These storms carry a gusty wind threat.

Current forecast outside of the 12 hour window, but the threat
will be introduced with the 09z amd and especially the 12z
cycle. As always, inherent uncertainties with point-forecasting
convection preclude details.

After an overnight downtick, when patchy fog may develop again,
there should be an uptick in activity Monday (by midday) as the
cold front crosses the terminals. FROPA will clear all terminals
before 00z Tuesday, likely by several hours.

The airmass will be substantially drier Monday night and
Tuesday. Higher confidenceVFR will prevail.

Vfr conditions are expected for all terminals next week as high
pressure builds into our region. Flight restrictions could be
possible within showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Thunderstorms in the mid bay pushing onto the eastern shore
early this morning. Expect more thunderstorms to develop with
daytime heating, carrying a gusty wind threat late this
afternoon into this evening. The gradient wind sufficient to
support a low-end small craft advisory (which has been issued),
but any stronger thunderstorm likely will require a marine
warning.

A cold front will cross the waters Monday. Once again, scattered
showers and thunderstorms anticipated to be coincident with the
front. Model soundings suggest deep mixing possible. While some
of this likely tied to showers thunderstorms, believe there is
enough of a gradient component to issue a small craft advisory
for Monday late morning through afternoon as well.

Winds likely to subside after dark due to the nocturnal
inversion, but the pressure gradient with the related low will
support a new round of mixing on Tuesday. More small craft
conditions possible. Quiet weather expected Wednesday-Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
Positive water level departures have been pesky, lingering
around a foot above astronomical predictions. In light of these
predictions, have issued advisories for annapolis and southwest
dc for minor flooding near high tide.

The wind regime will do nothing to change things through Sunday
night. If anything, water levels could rise slightly, making for
a more widespread minor flood with high tide early Monday
morning. A cold frontal passage Monday night hopefully will ease
this condition by Tuesday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory from 7 am to 11 am edt this morning for
dcz001.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until 10 am edt this morning for mdz014.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for anz530>543.

Small craft advisory from 11 am to 6 pm edt Monday for
anz530>543.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Jmg
aviation... Hts jmg
marine... Hts
tides coastal flooding... Hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 42 mi48 min ESE 11 G 12 69°F 72°F1016.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 65 mi42 min SE 12 G 13
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 68 mi48 min ESE 11 G 13 68°F 70°F1017.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 68 mi48 min Calm G 1 65°F 65°F1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA13 mi85 minESE 32.50 miFog/Mist60°F59°F99%1018.6 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA20 mi85 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist61°F60°F100%1017.3 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi85 minN 07.00 miFair62°F61°F100%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from LKU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W3W5W5CalmE4SE6S5W5SE4S4SE4CalmE5E4E4SE5S4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW4SW5S5SW4S4SW5SW7SW5W6W6S5SW4S3S3CalmW5W4CalmSW4CalmSW3W3W3Calm
2 days agoSW3SW4SW5SW6W7W6W5W5W6NW8SW5CalmSE3S3S3S3S3S3S3S3SW4SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
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Sun -- 03:04 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:06 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:54 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.60.30.10.41.32.333.33.22.72.11.61.10.60.1-00.41.32.12.72.82.52

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
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Sun -- 02:48 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:15 AM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:38 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:51 PM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.70.30.20.61.62.63.43.83.73.12.41.81.10.60.100.61.52.433.22.92.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.