Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hollymead, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:24PM Monday May 21, 2018 11:12 AM EDT (15:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:18AMMoonset 12:33AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1032 Am Edt Mon May 21 2018
Rest of today..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will stall to the south and west of the waters through tonight before returning north as a warm front Tuesday. A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and high pressure will build overhead Thursday. High pressure will move offshore Friday through the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hollymead, VA
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location: 38.08, -78.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 211420
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1020 am edt Mon may 21 2018

Synopsis
A front will remain over the carolinas into the appalachian
mountains today through tonight. The front will return north as
a warm front on Tuesday with a cold front expected to pass
through the area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure will build
over the area for the second half of the week.

Near term through tonight
Frontal boundary is stalled out south of the region today across
central va and into central wv. A weakening cluster of showers
and isolated thunderstorms moved into portions of eastern WV and
western va this morning, and some additional progress
southeastward is likely before dissipation this afternoon. By
later this afternoon, some additional shower thunderstorm
development is likely near the frontal boundary and across the
higher terrain. Locally heavy rain is possible, and there is a
low risk for an isolated flooding incident or two, although the
majority of the convection should be south west towards
blacksburg roanoke charleston on the warm side of the boundary.

Otherwise, a general increase in clouds is anticipated, with
highs in the 70s to low 80s.

The front will begin to lift northward tonight.

Any showers thunderstorms should see a weakening trend. Low
clouds and patchy fog may also develop. Warm air advection will
allow for low temperatures to be around 10 degrees above normal
across the region tonight.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
The boundary will return north and east as a warm front Tuesday,
and a southwest flow aloft will continue around high pressure
over the atlantic. The southwest flow will usher in more
moisture across our area, and instability will return due to the
moisture and daytime heating. The boundary will act as the
lifting mechanism for showers and thunderstorms to develop,
with the best chance for convection coming during the afternoon
and evening hours. Pwats over 1.5 inches suggest that there will
be enough moisture for thunderstorms to contain heavy rainfall,
and moderate to perhaps high amounts of instability
thunderstorms may contain gusty winds or hail. However, the
threat for severe thunderstorms is still limited due to the lack
of deep layer shear.

A weak cold front will approach the region Tuesday night before
passing through Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A drier
northwest flow will limit convection behind the boundary
Wednesday, but will still carry the slight chance to chance for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, with the highest
pops across southern areas.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Weak high pressure will build overhead Thursday before moving
offshore Friday. A north to northwest flow will allow for dry
and less humid conditions Thursday along with sunshine. The
humidity may creep back a bit Friday due to a return flow, but
mainly dry conditions are expected to remain in place.

High pressure will set up over the atlantic for Saturday and
Sunday and a southwest flow will allow for moisture to return,
increasing the chances for popup showers and thunderstorms.

Tropical moisture has the chance to get drawn north into the
area, but confidence is still low at this time. If it does, then
showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
A weak front will stall to the south and west today.VFR
conditions are expected through today. The boundary will begin
to lift northward tonight, with warm air advection increasing
aloft, and this may result in low clouds and areas of fog
toward morning.

The front will move into the area Tuesday before a weak cold
front passes through Wednesday. Popup showers and thunderstorms
are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening, but coverage will
diminish overnight. Drier air should allow for any convection to
be isolated or widely scattered Wednesday and confined mainly
toward the south near kcho. Even there, much of the day may be
dry.

High pressure will return for Thursday and Friday withVFR
conditions most likely.

Marine
A weak cold front will stall to the south and west through
tonight. A northeast flow this morning will turn to the
southeast later today into tonight. Winds should remain below
sca criteria during this time.

A warm front will approach the waters Tuesday into Tuesday night
before a cold front passes through Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely Tuesday, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours. Some storms may contain gusty
winds. South to southeast winds may approach SCA criteria
Tuesday and a northwest flow behind the cold front may cause
winds to approach SCA criteria Wednesday, but confidence is low
for Tuesday due to the relatively cooler waters.

High pressure will return for Thursday before moving offshore
Friday into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
Freshwater continues to decrease as water levels on the potomac
river upstream have crested and they continue to fall.

Therefore, the threat for moderate flooding has ended. Minor
flooding is still expected near times of high tide through
tonight, and it is possible Tuesday for washington dc. Will
continue with the advisory through tonight, and it may need to
be extended into Tuesday as well.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for dcz001.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Mm imr
short term... Bjl
long term... Bjl imr
aviation... Bjl mm imr
marine... Bjl mm imr
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 92 mi42 min NNW 1.9 G 5.1 76°F 65°F1023.2 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA4 mi19 minNNE 610.00 miFair77°F64°F64%1022.4 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA23 mi17 minNNE 510.00 miFair73°F60°F65%1023 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA24 mi37 minE 710.00 miFair75°F64°F70%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S865SW5CalmS4S4CalmW3SW3W4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE4NE6NE10NE10NE8N6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmSW3Calm3S6CalmS12S8S4S4S7S6SW56
2 days agoNE10NE10NE11NE11N10N11NE10NE9NE9NE12
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NE10NE9NE9NE11N8N6N8N7N5E5NE5NE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:42 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:55 PM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.13.12.92.31.71.20.70.40.40.81.72.73.23.43.22.72.11.510.50.20.30.91.9

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:30 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:51 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:42 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:36 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.72.421.51.10.70.40.30.71.52.42.92.92.72.31.81.30.90.50.30.20.71.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.