Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hollymead, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:21PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:18 AM EST (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:01AMMoonset 5:10PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1231 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Light snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Light snow.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1231 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will depart east of the region through tonight. A cold front will cross the waters Tuesday and low pressure will develop offshore Wednesday. High pressure will return for late in the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for the waters late Tuesday night through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hollymead, VA
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location: 38.08, -78.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 160219
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
919 pm est Mon jan 15 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will weaken and slide toward the east coast through
tonight. A cold front will approach the area Tuesday before
passing through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low pressure will
develop along this boundary offshore later Wednesday before high
pressure settles to our south Thursday. High pressure will remain
to our south through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
High pressure situated over southern quebec this evening and its
ridge axis over our region will weaken and shift northeastward
tonight. A clipper system over the western great lakes will move
slowly eastward tonight, extending a cold front toward our
western zones Tuesday morning. We should see some light snow
break out along the western ridges and western md towards
daybreak with accumulations generally under an inch through this
time period. A winter weather advisory GOES in to effect at 5am
for these locations, including the eastern panhandle of wv. For
the latest forecast snow amounts and probabilities, visit our
winter weather page at weather.Gov lwx winter.

Mostly cloudy skies have been observed along and east of i-95
since this afternoon thanks to a moist onshore flow. This will
continue to be the case overnight with increasing cloudiness
across the rest of the CWA as the trough nears from the west.

Temperatures overnight will hold in to low to middle 20s, with
upper teens at our typically colder locations. Guidance
indicates the possibility for patchy fog east of the blue ridge
towards daybreak, but with ample cloud cover, am skeptical of
this happening. That being said, given the moist low levels
owing to the onshore flow, it is possible.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
The much awaited cold front associated with the approaching
trough will move slowly eastward into the area during the day
Tuesday. As heights fall and lift increases, anticipate snow
(mainly light) to continue developing eastward, eventually
reaching the NW suburbs of dc baltimore after dark. There is
still some uncertainty in timing, but the most likely scenario
is one where snow moves into the shenandoah valley and parts of
north-central maryland (northern baltimore to frederick county
md) between 4 and 7 pm, pushing across i-95 between 8 and 11 pm.

The steadiest snow from the shenandoah valley eastward to the
metro areas should be between late Tuesday evening and early
Wednesday morning, likely impacting the Wednesday morning
commute. Steadier snow should enhance linger across portions of
central virginia (the charlottesville area) to southern maryland
through Wednesday morning as a wave of low pressure develops
offshore. Meanwhile, dry air advecting in from the northwest
should cause snow to cease across much of eastern west virginia,
northern virginia and northern maryland by mid-morning
Wednesday. In general, anticipating 1-2 inches across much of
the area, with 2-4 inches across the higher elevations and
central shenandoah valley into parts of central virginia where
higher ratios stronger forcing and moisture will be juxtaposed.

Have issued an advisory across the allegheny front and northern
maryland eastern west virginia where confidence is highest, and
hoisted a special weather statement for a potentially hazardous
Wednesday morning commute for the i-95 corridor.

Clearing and breezy conditions are expected Wednesday night as the
cold front pushes east, ushering in another arctic airmass. Cold
wind chills are possible again over the higher elevations which
could warrant an advisory Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Monday
High pressure will remain to our south over the southeastern conus
into the atlantic Thursday through the weekend. A west to southwest
flow will allow for a moderating trend in temperatures. In
fact... This weekend MAX temps in the 50s are most likely. Dry
conditions will likely persist during this time as well.

Overall there is good pattern agreement amongst guidance for the
long term period. On Thursday morning, the upper level trough will
be exiting the east coast, giving way to a shortwave ridge and
surface high pressure building across the mid south. While high
temperatures will return closer to seasonal normals, Thursday night
will likely be cold (teens 20s) again with light winds and mostly
clear skies.

Low pressure will track into the great lakes later Sunday into
Monday. The cold front associated with the low will approach our
area during this time. A southwest flow will continue to usher in
milder conditions... But increased moisture from the gulf of mexico
and the forcing from the front will cause increasing chances for
precipitation. Timing is uncertain this far out.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
MVFR CIGS widely observed this evening along our eastern
terminals (dca bwi mtn) this evening thanks to a moist onshore
flow. This should continue to be the case for the bulk of the
overnight period. Guidance continues to indicate the
possibility of patchy fog over those same terminals after 09z,
which not out of the realm of possibility given the low level
moisture, however skeptical of occurrence with ample cloud
cover. As such, have left out of the tafs for now. Winds will
remain light and variable at all terminals overnight.

Vfr conditions expected for much of the day on Tuesday, with the
threat of -sn restrictions increasing at mrb by the afternoon. Sub-
vfr (ifr possible at times) likely Tuesday night in -sn.VFR
should return by midday Wednesday. Winds should be light today
through Tuesday, then become NW and blustery by Wednesday.

High pressure will settle to the south and east for Thursday
through Saturday. A west to southwest flow is expected during this
time.VFR conditions are most likely during this time.

Marine
With high pressure to our northeast and a low pressure over the
great lakes slowly moving eastward, a weak pressure pattern will
reside over our waters through Tuesday, resulting in light winds
and no headlines.

Nw winds increase likely to SCA levels early Wednesday morning.

High pressure will settle off to the south and east Thursday
through the weekend. A west to southwest flow is most likely
during this time. A small craft advisory may be needed for
portions of the waters Thursday. Winds may approach SCA criteria
Friday into the weekend as well, but confidence is low.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Winter weather advisory from 5 am to 8 pm est Tuesday for
mdz003-501-502.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm Tuesday to 7 am est
Wednesday for mdz004>006-507.

Va... Winter weather advisory from 5 am to 8 pm est Tuesday for
vaz503.

Wv... Winter weather advisory from 5 am to 8 pm est Tuesday for
wvz050>053-055-501>505.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bkf dhof
short term... Dhof
long term... Bjl
aviation... Bkf dhof
marine... Bkf dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 92 mi49 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 30°F 33°F1031.9 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA4 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair26°F14°F60%1030.5 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA23 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair23°F19°F86%1030.5 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA24 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair18°F16°F94%1031.8 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4Calm4Calm4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm
1 day agoN4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3N46NE8NE8N7NE6E6E9E5NE8NE3NE6NE4NE5N4N4NE5
2 days agoSW64NW8
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NW84N4N3

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:32 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     2.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:26 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:04 PM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.1-0.10.41.11.82.32.42.21.710.50.1-0.1-0.10.41.322.52.72.62.11.51

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:47 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     2.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:40 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:52 PM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30-0.10.311.622.11.81.40.90.50.2-0-0.10.31.11.82.22.42.21.81.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.