Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hollymead, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:35PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 7:53 AM EDT (11:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:36AMMoonset 7:23PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 731 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning. Showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 731 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay this afternoon. High pressure will build into the waters for midweek, followed by a low pressure system moving towards the region on Friday. This system will exit the region Saturday. Small craft advisories are possible Thursday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hollymead, VA
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location: 38.08, -78.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 280743
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
343 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area this afternoon. High pressure
builds over the region Wednesday into Thursday. Another
disturbance will approach the area late Thursday into early
Saturday.

Near term /today/
A wet midday seems likely for much of the area today as an upper
level short wave tracks across the mid atlantic. Have upped pops
during from ~10am-3pm but then precip chances will diminish
during the late afternoon, although short range model still
implies scattered showers could develop post-frontal.

Spc continues to maintain maringal risk of severe thunderstorms
east of the mountains. SREF severe probabilities imply the
chances are better across SE va/nc than in our area, bufkit
profiles show neither high CAPE nor shear, and this will be
coming through fairly early in the day.

Highs expected to reach the low to mid 70s.

Short term /tonight through Thursday/
High pressure will be building into the area tonight through
Wednesday night. Patchy fog will likely develop tonight with
lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s.

Plenty of sunshine is expected Wednesday. Winds from the north
expected to gust up to 20 mph. Temperatures will top out in the
60s.

And with the high to our north Wednesday night excellent
radational cooling conditions are expected. This will drop
temperatures into the 30s west of i-95.

A warm front is forecast to be well to our south Thursday. Clouds
will be increasing as the day progresses. It will be cool and
dry. Highs in the 50s.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
A low pressure system will be moving out of the mississippi valley
eastward into the ohio valley Thursday night into Friday morning.

This will send a surge of warm and moist air advection across the
area Thursday night. While best forcing may lift north of the area,
chances for showers will be on the increase Thursday night.

The system will push to the eastern seaboard on Friday. Current
model solutions depict fairly disjointed system, but do show
potential for some consolidation/redevelopment of the surface low
downwind of the strongest upper level energy Friday night. Thus will
see highest chances of organized rainfall from Friday into Friday
night. Temperatures during this time shouldn't see a whole lot of
diurnal variability with increased clouds/moisture/rain, generally
40s at night, 50s during the day.

The low will pull eastward away from the coast on Saturday. Could
have some lingering showers, but will see a drying trend during the
day. High pressure will build into the region by Sunday with dry
conditions. The next system will eject out of the plains and may
approach the area early next week.

Highs generally low to mid 60s Saturday through Monday, with lows in
the 40s.

Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/
Vfr at all sites at the moment but believe light fog could
develop in the pre-dawn hours. An upper level disturbance will
cross the area during the 14-20z time period. Showers are
expected and isolated thunderstorm will be possible.

Vfr conditions expected tonight through Thursday.

Chances for sub-vfr conditions increase by Friday and continue
through Friday night with potential for low ceilings and
visibilities in rain with low pressure system crossing the region.

Conditions will improve through the day on Saturday.

Marine
Isolated thunderstorms during the midday hours, especially
possible over the lower potomac/ches bay south of drum point.

An SCA has been issued for Wednesday. Northerly winds are
expected to gust to 20 kt.

Potential for small craft advisory conditions increases Thursday
night and Friday with increasing southeasterly winds ahead of an
approaching system. Winds will then turn north/northwesterly on
Saturday behind the system, with continued potential for sca
conditions.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 4 pm edt Wednesday for
anz530>543.

Products... Woody!/mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 92 mi54 min S 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 50°F1010.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA4 mi61 minSSW 76.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain Fog/Mist62°F59°F90%1010.8 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA23 mi59 minSSW 810.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain in Vicinity61°F57°F88%1011.8 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA24 mi59 minSW 610.00 miLight Rain64°F60°F88%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3S7SW7SW9S8S12S11S14
G19
S11S8S6SW5CalmCalmCalmS4S4S5SW5CalmS7S8SW7
1 day agoNE8NE9NE10NE8N7NE7NE9NE9NE9E10
G17
NE10N8NE8N4NE6NE6NE6N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3
2 days agoS6SW6S6S5S8S8SW4S7S9SE9S10S10S8S6S6S6S7S5S6S6CalmCalmN5NE14
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:06 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:24 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.50.20.10.41.32.43.13.43.22.721.40.80.300.10.71.82.73.23.22.82.2

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:55 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:37 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.50.200.31.12.12.832.82.41.81.20.70.3000.51.52.42.82.82.51.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.