Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 9:11 PM   Moonset 6:02 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 835 Am Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Today - NW winds 15 to 25 knots. Tonight - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Fri - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Fri night - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 knots.

PZZ500 835 Am Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
moderate northwesterly winds persist through Friday morning with occasional fresh to strong gusts through various portions of the coastal waters, mostly in the southern waters. Winds strengthen to become strong and gusty into Friday afternoon with gale-force gusts likely near the big sur coast. These strong and gusty northwesterly winds last through the weekend and into at least the early portion of next week, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. Moderate period northwest swell will continue to move through the waters this weekend, with a new longer period northwest swell train entering the waters Sunday. Light, long period southerly swell continues through end of forecast period.

FXUS66 KMTR 251756 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1056 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Cool temperatures will continue today. A cold front will bring a chance for light rain beginning tonight, with strong winds Friday night. Increasing sunshine will kick off a warming trend Sat-Tue.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A coastal surface trough will continue to weaken and move inland, allowing a low-amplitude ridge to build. This will cause the marine layer to compress to about 1,500 ft. Compared to the 4,000 ft deep marine layer observed Wednesday, the low overcast today will be more limited to the coast and adjacent low valleys. The standard NW flow will also return as the trough weakens. The cool temperatures will continue, with highs generally in the 60s. This ridge pattern will be short lived as a cold front moves through on Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Some light rain is possible starting ahead of the cold front Thursday night, with low PoPs lasting though the day Friday.
22/26 members of the SREF have some precipitation falling at SFO between Thursday night and Friday, but only 4 of them are above 0.05" of accumulation, and none of those are above 0.1". Similar results are found throughout the Bay Area, with slightly more bullish results along the Central Coast. As such, I have increased the NBM PoPs to at least 15% to ensure a slight chance of rain is mentioned, but did not increase the QPF from the WPC guidance, which is near zero. There's a decent chance some rain falls late Thursday-Friday, but it will be light.

The bigger impact will be from strong NW winds behind the cold front. 24 hours ago, it looked like a slam dunk wind advisory along the coast, but the models have backed off since then. NBM is on the high side of the guidance, but only shows a slight chance of exceeding 40 mph gusts along the coast on Friday night. The timing of the strongest winds has also shifted from Friday afternoon to overnight Friday. Based on this, and the fact that other deterministic models are even less aggressive, we are not hoisting a wind advisory at this time. That being said, there will be plenty of gusts above 30 mph on Friday and Saturday with some minor impacts expected.

The weekend will feature clearing skies and slightly warmer temperatures, although Saturday will still be breezy. The gradual warm-up will continue through early next week, as the region returns to seasonal temperatures under mostly clear skies. The next threat of rain arrives late next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Satellite shows low ceilings shuffling through the region causing MVFR conditions over most of the terminals. Onshore winds will continue to build to breezy and gusty through the afternoon with some terminals seeing relief overnight to moderate winds. SF Bay terminals are expected to remain gusty and breezy through the TAF period. Stratus may lift to VFR for brief moments this afternoon before lower ceilings will return tonight bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions overnight. VFR is expected to return by Friday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR with W/NW breezy and gusty winds. Models suggest a short brief moment of VFR near the afternoon but had low confidence to include in TAFs. If lifting does occur, expect MVFR conditions to linger near by the terminals. Winds will remain breezy and gusty through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR through most of the TAF period for KMRY but KSNS may see a temporary lift to VFR this afternoon. Winds will become breezy and gusty this afternoon, before transitions to moderate overnight. VFR expected to prevail after 12Z.

MARINE
Issued at 1056 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Moderate northwesterly winds persist through Friday morning with occasional fresh to strong gusts through various portions of the coastal waters, mostly in the southern waters. Winds strengthen to become strong and gusty into Friday afternoon with gale-force gusts likely near the Big Sur coast. These strong and gusty northwesterly winds last through the weekend and into at least the early portion of next week, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. Moderate period northwest swell will continue to move through the waters this weekend, with a new longer period northwest swell train entering the waters Sunday.
Light, long period southerly swell continues through end of forecast period.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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Hog Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:15 AM PDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:44 AM PDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:03 PM PDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:20 PM PDT     2.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:10 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hog Island, San Antonio Creek, San Pablo Bay, California, Tide feet

Petaluma River Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:47 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:11 AM PDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:19 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:45 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:22 PM PDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:06 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:55 PM PDT     -0.26 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:14 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:07 PM PDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petaluma River Approach, San Pablo Bay, California Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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