Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairmount, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:44PM Saturday February 17, 2018 9:41 PM EST (02:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 7:37PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 933 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 kt...becoming w. Waves 1 ft. Rain late this evening. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 933 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A wave of low pressure will track along a cold front to our south tonight. High pressure will return for Sunday, then move offshore early next week. A warm front will move north across the waters Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairmount, MD
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location: 38.11, -75.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180025
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
725 pm est Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure skirts across southern virginia and north carolina
late this afternoon and intensifies off the DELMARVA coast this
evening, bringing widespread rain to the region. High pressure
returns Sunday with mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.

A warm front lifts north through the area Monday and Monday
night. High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast
Tuesday and Wednesday bringing a return to well above normal
temperatures.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Latest analysis indicates sfc low pressure over SW va with high
pressure centered across SE new england. Rain has overspread
most of the cwa, but except across the north has been light so
far. Due to column cooling wet bulb effects, temperatures over
the far N NW have dropped into the mid 30s, but with sfc dew pts
at 32-33 f not expecting much more of a drop. Thus, just a
little sleet snow possibly mixed in across fluvanna louisa caroline
into early evening but should be no accumulation with just wet
roads. Elsewhere, all rain continuing into evening as sfc low
pressure pushes east off the coast and intensifies off the
delmarva... Then heads out to sea by Sun morning. Will have high
pops (65-80% W to 80-100% e) this evening... Decreasing nw-se
after midnight. Lows in lower 30s NW to the upper 30s lower 40s
se. QPF amounts to avg 0.25 to 0.50" N to 0.15 to 0.30" s.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
Sfc high pressure builds over the region Sunday for a dry mostly
sunny day. Highs mainly from the mid to upper 50s west of ches
bay (warmest south central va), with cooler conditions, mainly
in the in the upper 40s lower 50s close to the coast with light
onshore flow. Models bring next system and a return of moisture
back from the SW by mon. Mostly clear Sun evening with
increasing clouds overnight from SW to ne. Lows mainly 35-40f
though readings may actually rise a bit after midnight across
the west. A slight chance for rain late west of i-95. With the
sfc high well off the mid- atlc new england coast on mon,
overrunning moisture pushes across the local area with mainly
cloudy skies and a light E SE flow. Best forcing remains off to
our NW however, so not necessarily looking at a lot of qpf. Will
carry pops to 40-50% most areas for now. Not a true cad setup,
but a lot of clouds and shallow mixing will keep it cool for
much of the day, especially across the piedmont. Late day highs
will avg 50-55f W NW to the mid 60s far se. Increasing SW flow
mon night as upper ridge axis begins to amplify build off the se
coast.Models indicate some continued light QPF amounts mon
night, but there is little forcing for precipitation so will
genly keep pops capped at just 20%. Milder with little drop in
temperatures due to the SW flow, lows ranging from the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Area will be firmly in the warm sector on tue, with
strong upper ridge centered over the gulf stream off the se
coast. GFS nam depict a lot of low level moisture across the
area so skies may start of mostly cloudy. Suspect the SW low
level flow and 850mb temperatures rising to +10 to +12 c will be
sufficient to scour out the low level clouds by late morning
and allow for a partly sunny day. Highs expected into the 70s
except for locally cooler conditions at the immediate coast.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
A strong +2 st dev 500mb ridge will be located over the
subtropical WRN atlantic Wednesday bringing very warm temperatures.

Lows Tuesday night Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the mid
50s to around 60f, followed by highs Wednesday in the upper 60s low
70s over the ERN shore, and at least mid upper 70s elsewhere. There
is the potential for low 80s over SE va NE nc. A weak shortwave
trough is progged to rotate around the ridge Wednesday, and this
could result in some more clouds and low pops (20-30%) over the
piedmont. The ridge slowly breaks down Wednesday night into
Thursday, but remains strong. Therefore, a cold front to the NW will
have slow progress reaching the mid-atlantic. Pops Wednesday night
will range from 20-30% S to 30-40% n, then ~30% S to 50-60% n
Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will mainly be in the 50s, with the
potential for wide ranging highs Thursday possibly around 60f low
60s N to the 70s SE depending on where the cold front reaches. Upper
level ridging will continue to prevail but gradually weaken off the
southeast coast later next week into next weekend with well above
normal temperatures continuing. There remains some uncertainty with
the cold front, with the general consensus for the front to be into
nc Friday with highs in the 50s to low 60s, and then lifting back n
as a warm front with highs in the 60s to around 70f by Saturday.

Forecast pops are mainly 20-30% Thursday night through Saturday.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Widespread MVFR ifr conditions as low pressure system just off
the coast and upper level cyclonic pattern pushes light to
moderate rain through the region. The low is forecast to
continue NE over the waters overnight and the rain will
eventually move off the coast before daybreak as high pressure
moves into the area. Ceiling and visibility conditions will
slowly improve through the night and likely becomeVFR between
midnight and 4:00 am. Winds will mostly be light less than 10 kt
during the overnight and shift to the NW and ne.VFR conditions
expected for Sunday with few clouds as high pressure builds in.

Another round of rain showers and flight restrictions lower
cigs are possible by Monday and possibly lasting through mon
night Tue morning with low stratus. ExpectVFR warm ssw flow to
prevail Tue after the early am clouds scour out. A cold front
approaches from the NW on Wednesday but expectVFR conditions to
prevail.

Marine
Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure off the new england coast
with weak low pressure off the carolina coast. Seas remain close to
5 ft over far southern coastal wtrs this aftn, but with a slight
downward trend expected and this being quite marginal will not hoist
any headlines. The aforementioned low slides NE along the coast
tonight and strengthens. A brief period of SCA criteria winds is
psbl over the wtrs, but with this expected to last less than a few
hours, will maintain previous thinking that a mws or smw will likely
be best suited to handle this. Pressure gradient then slackens into
sun, with sub-sca conditions expected to continue through at least
the middle of next week. Nne winds late Sun veer around to the ese
sun night as a surface high slides offshore, becoming southerly mon
night into Tue as a warm front lifts north across the waters. Ssw
flow persists into midweek, with seas remaining 2-4 ft.

Climate
Ecg set a record high at 81 f Fri 2 16. Another round of record
highs will possibly be challenged Tue 2 20 and Wed 2 21:
* record highs:
* date: Tue 2 20 Wed 2 21
* ric: 77 (1930) 75 (1930)
* orf: 77 (1991) 79 (2014)
* sby: 75 (1930) 75 (1943)
* ecg: 78 (1991) 77 (2014)

Equipment
Kakq radar will be down ufn.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Jdm lkb
long term... Ajz
aviation... Lkb jef
marine... Mas
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 13 mi42 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 43°F1019 hPa (-3.0)
44042 - Potomac, MD 27 mi32 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 35°F 1017.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 34 mi42 min E 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 44°F1018.6 hPa (-3.4)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 34 mi42 min 35°F 43°F1019.5 hPa (-3.4)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 35 mi42 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1 34°F 1018.9 hPa (-3.8)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi42 min ESE 6 G 7 35°F 40°F1017.5 hPa (-3.7)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 36 mi42 min NW 4.1 G 7 38°F 47°F1018.4 hPa (-2.1)
44089 36 mi42 min 41°F3 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi42 min NNW 16 G 18 1019.3 hPa (-2.0)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 42 mi42 min N 9.9 G 14 38°F 40°F1018.5 hPa (-3.0)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi32 min S 5.8 G 7.8 35°F 1020 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 44 mi32 min NE 9.7 G 12 37°F 1019.9 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA23 mi48 minNW 97.00 miLight Rain38°F37°F97%1018.4 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi48 minN 46.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F36°F100%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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NW9N8
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N7NW9N8N7N6N6N6N6NE13E13E13E12E9E8NE9NE10NE6----N6NW9
1 day agoSW17
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W7W5NW5W4SW5SW8W7W4W6W7N9
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2 days agoSW5S10SW3S4SW10SW8S7S4S5SW5SW10W10
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SW8S10S8S9S11S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Teague Creek, Manokin River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Teague Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:23 AM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:51 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:41 PM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:36 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.7221.71.30.80.3-0-0.10.10.61.21.82.22.221.61.10.60.1-0.1-00.3

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:20 AM EST     0.55 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:12 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:32 PM EST     0.67 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:35 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:39 PM EST     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.50.30.1-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.20.20.50.60.70.50.2-0.2-0.6-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.