Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairmount, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:16PM Thursday January 24, 2019 6:23 AM EST (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 9:48AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 540 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..S winds 25 kt with gusts to 45 kt...becoming W with gusts to 40 kt this afternoon. Waves 4 ft...subsiding to 2 ft late. Rain, mainly this morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft after midnight.
ANZ500 540 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front over the ohio valley will cross the waters this afternoon as low pressure passes through the region. A reinforcing front will push through the waters on Friday, with high pressure transiting the area through the weekend. Small craft advisories are likely Friday and Friday night, and may be required Saturday night and Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairmount, MD
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location: 38.11, -75.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240855
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
355 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will intensify along a cold front this
morning. The cold front then crosses the area this afternoon. A
secondary cold front crosses the area Friday. High pressure
builds in for the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 355 am est Thursday...

a baroclinic wave is approaching the eastern seaboard early
this morning ahead of a deep trough over the central conus.

Cloudy with occasional showers streaming nwd across the piedmont
and i-95 corridor is strong southerly flow aloft. Very mild
with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. This
system will track across the region throughout the morning and
into early aftn bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rain
within a region of strong vertical ascent, although detection
from a radar perspective will be limited to non-existent given
that akq and dox radars are each inoperable. QPF ranges from
0.75-1.0" across the area. The associated cold front will then
sweep through the region by early aftn, with drier air
overspreading the region. High temperatures are forecast to
range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, although temperatures may
drop a few degrees by aftn behind the cold front. A strong s
wind of 15-20 mph ahead of the front will gust to 30-35 mph, and
potentially up to 40 mph along the atlantic coast of the ern
shore.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
As of 355 am est Thursday...

clearing and colder by tonight as weak high pressure briefly
builds in from the nw. Forecast lows range from the mid upper
20s NW to mid 30s se. A trailing upper level shortwave will
cross the area on Friday, and after a sunny start will see some
clouds develop by mid-late morning early aftn, before clearing
late. There will be decent lift due to the upper energy aloft,
but low levels look very dry so maintained a dry forecast at
this time. A secondary cold front will accompany the trough, and
bring a reinforcing push of colder air. Highs Friday will be
near seasonal averages, mainly in the 40s, and then below normal
temps Friday night (lows in the upper teens to mid 20s), and
Saturday (highs upper 30s to lower 40s) as cold high pressure
builds in and settles over the region.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 350 pm est Wednesday...

fairly quiet conditions for much of the extended period in our area.

An upper level disturbance skirts north of the area during the day
on Sunday which may lead to some light precipitation across the far
northern portions of the area. Due to the lack of moisture, just
maintained a slight chance of pops across the north into Sunday
night. Warm air advection develops Monday into Tuesday as upper
heights build ahead of another great lakes low pressure system. The
associated cold front approaches the region late in the day on and
crosses the region early Wednesday bringing the potential for rain
or snow showers across the region. Much colder conditions work into
the region by Wednesday night.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
As of 105 am est Thursday...

low pressure and an associated cold front will push ewd across
the mountains early this morning, and then arrive into the
region later this morning, before pushing offshore this aftn. A
strong pressure gradient ahead of this system will result in a
modestly strong S wind of 12-15kt with gusts to ~25kt early,
will then increase to 15-20kt with gusts of 25-30kt (locally up
to 35kt toward the coast). The potential for llws of 45-60kt
~2kft will continue early this morning, mainly for
sby phf orf ecg. The wind will become westerly in the wake of
the cold front with gusts to ~20kt. Light rain will overspread
the region from 08-12z, with a period of moderate to heavy rain
passing across the region later this morning through early aftn.

Generally MVFR CIGS are expected, with a low probability if ifr
cigs. A period of ifr vsby will likely occur with the heaviest
rain, and this will likely occur after 12z for the TAF sites.

Drier air quickly arrives behind the cold front this aftn with
rain ending from about 16-19z. Mostly clear by tonight with a nw
wind of 5-10kt.

A weak and dry cold front crosses the area Friday, with high
pressure building into the region Friday night through Monday.

Marine
As of 355 am est Thursday...

early morning surface analysis shows departing high pressure
well offshore with multiple areas of low pressure along a
lengthy cold front stretching from southern ontario southward
into the gulf of mexico. This front will cross the region this
morning and early afternoon with decreasing northwesterly winds
in its wake.

Conditions across the marine area are deteriorating quickly
early this morning with southerly winds generally 15-25 with
gusts to 30 knots. Waves in the bay are generally running 2-4
feet with seas 4-6 feet offshore. Winds will increase further
this morning with 20-25 knots in the bay and 25-30 knots
offshore. Wind gusts in the bay will generally be around 30
knots but a few gusts to 35 knots are possible prior to 18z.

Wind gusts offshore will range from 30-35 knots across the
southern zones to 35-40 knots for areas north of CAPE charles
light this morning and early afternoon. Accordingly, strongly
worded small craft advisories are in effect for rivers, bay, and
currituck sound as well as the southern offshore zones south of
cape charles light. Offshore zones to the north have gale
warnings in effect from 12z this morning until 18z this
afternoon but gale headlines for some or all of these zones may
need to be extended for a few hours depending on how quickly
wind speeds decrease behind the frontal passage. Regardless,
replacement scas will be required for these zones this afternoon
as winds turn to the northwest and begin to subside. Seas will
build 6-10 feet across the southern offshore zones into the
early afternoon. Farther north seas are forecast to increase
into the 8-12 foot range later this morning and have issued a
high surf advisory for northern atlantic-facing accomack and
worcester counties from 12z through 00z this evening. Seas will
be slow to subside after the front has passed and currently have
offshore scas running into Friday morning to account for this
threat.

Conditions improve markedly for the weekend and into early next
week with high pressure in control.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 350 pm est Wednesday...

departures will continue to rise in the strong S flow through
thu morning (especially in the mid upper bay) but not expecting
any sites to hit minor flood thresholds at this time.

Equipment
As of 100 am est Thursday...

the kdox radar is currently down for a faulty azimuth motor.

Parts will need to be ordered and a return to service time is
unknown.

The kakq radar remains down due to a pedestal slip ring
assembly failure. Due to the time to procure ship the needed
parts, and the repair time, the radar will remain down through
at least Friday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... High surf advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for mdz025.

Nc... None.

Va... High surf advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for vaz099.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
anz635>637.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
anz630>634-638.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
anz650-652-654.

Gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Ajz lkb
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz lkb
long term... Ajb mrd
aviation... Ajz
marine... Rhr
tides coastal flooding... Akq
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 13 mi36 min SSE 18 G 24 44°F 1005 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 34 mi42 min 54°F 35°F1004.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 34 mi42 min S 14 G 17 56°F 37°F1003.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 35 mi36 min S 18 G 20 43°F 1004.4 hPa
44089 36 mi54 min 41°F7 ft
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi36 min SE 15 G 19 47°F 39°F1003.3 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 36 mi36 min SSW 12 G 18 51°F 40°F1006.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi42 min SSE 15 G 16
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi36 min SSE 24 G 26 1006.5 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 42 mi42 min SW 14 G 15 47°F 42°F1007.9 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA23 mi30 minS 126.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F50°F93%1006.9 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi30 minS 18 G 284.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy59°F57°F96%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN6NW10
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N74N5Calm--CalmSE4S7S5CalmCalmSW3SW3SW3S7SW7SW6SW7SW6S5SW6SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Teague Creek, Manokin River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Teague Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:50 AM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:48 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:19 AM EST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:14 PM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:56 PM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.91.62.12.221.50.90.3-0.3-0.5-0.400.71.52.12.42.31.91.40.70.1-0.4-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:19 AM EST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:27 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:38 AM EST     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:47 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:51 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:37 PM EST     0.89 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:59 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:15 PM EST     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.60.80.80.60.2-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.50.10.60.80.90.70.4-0-0.5-0.9-1.1-1-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.