Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairmount, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:23PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 3:18 PM EDT (19:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:13PMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 136 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
This afternoon..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers through the night.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters through tonight while a weak wave of low pressure passes by to the south. A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and high pressure will build overhead for Thursday before moving offshore Friday. Another cold front will pass through the waters Saturday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for Thursday, and again Friday afternoon through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairmount, MD
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location: 38.11, -75.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 161901
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
301 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure moves along a cold front tonight, with
canadian high pressure building into the mid-atlantic from the
north later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. High
pressure remains over the region Thursday and Friday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

current GOES wv imagery depicts a shortwave trough moving into
the mid-south in wsw flow aloft. Meanwhile, a cold front has
pushed through the local area and stalled across nc. Mostly
cloudy and cool this aftn with temperatures ranging through the
60s. The upper wave will approach from the wsw with moisture
spreading across the region N of the front by later this
evening. Light rain is expected to move into the piedmont later
this evening, and then expand and spread ewd toward the coast
overnight. Pops are mainly 60- 70% along and S of a line from
fvx-ric-wal and 40-50% N of that line. QPF will mainly be light,
generally 0.1-0.25", and 0.25-0.4" for far SE va NE nc. Lows
tonight range from the upper 40s NW to around 60f se.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

canadian high pressure to the NW will push the stalled front
off the coast by Wednesday aftn. Rain will linger over SE va ne
nc through about 12z 8am Wednesday morning, and then gradually
taper off through noon over coastal NE nc. Otherwise, clearing
from nw-se with most locations becoming mostly sunny by aftn.

Highs range from the upper 60s N to the low or even mid 70 S as
caa will be slow to arrive Wednesday. Wednesday night will
likely be the coolest night of the season thus far with cool
high pressure building over the region and a clear sky. Lows
will likely drop into the mid-upper 30s to low 40s for the
piedmont into portions of the interior coastal plain and mid 40s
to low 50s at to the coast of SE va NE nc.

Sunny and cool Thursday with high pressure over the region.

Highs are forecast to be in the upper 50s to around 60f, with
dewpoints in the low 30s. Even cooler Thursday night into Friday
morning as 1030mb high pressure settles over the region.

Forecast lows are in the mid 30s for the piedmont, interior
coastal plain, and interior md ERN shore (upper 30s for urban
areas), and some colder locations potentially could drop to 32f
given ideal radiational cooling conditions and a dry airmass.

Elsewhere, lows should be in the upper 30s to low 40s, with mid
40s at the coast in SE va NE nc. High pressure gradually slides
offshore by Friday aftn. Increasing clouds with highs in the low
to mid 60s.

Long term Friday night through Monday
As of 300 pm Tuesday...

at the start of the extended period, a rather vigorous
shortwave trough drops southeastward from canada (along w
associated sfc low pressure coupled with a cold front). As the
cold front approaches the area Fri night-Saturday, subtropical
moisture will stream from the gulf coast to the carolinas srn
mid-atlantic as we briefly go under wsw flow aloft. The
combination of moisture returning, an approaching cold front,
and a series of mid-level disturbances moving from wsw to ene
along the front will allow rain chances to increase throughout
the region. Thus, will maintain pops of 40-50% increasing to
60-70% for much of central south-central va Fri night. As the
front crosses the region during the day on Saturday, the highest
rain chances will shift to the southeastern CWA by the early
afternoon. Maintained categorical pops across SE va NE nc from
12- 18z sat, as the 16 12z gfs ECMWF gem continue to paint a
widespread area 0.25-0.75" of rain south and east of an avc-akq-
mfv line. Lows Fri night in the low-mid 50s ahead of the front.

Forecast highs on Saturday range from the mid-upper 60s. Rain
chances rapidly go down after 20z Sat as the front pushes
southeast of the cwa. Skies quickly clear Sat night as drier air
moves in from the N nw. Lows will range from the low-mid 40s nw
to the low 50s in coastal SE va NE nc.

Expect dry weather to prevail for the remainder of the extended
period. Low-level CAA continues on Sunday (850hpa temperatures
will range from -1c to -4c by the end of the day. Sfc high
pressure moves overhead Sun night. Highs only in the mid-upper
50s on Sunday. With the high (nearly) overhead, expect a cold
night across the area, with mid-upper 30s inland 40s along the
immediate coast. Winds turn back to the south by Mon pm,
allowing for a very slight warm-up. Low pressure (sfc-aloft)
passes well to our north on Tue tue night. This will drag
another cold front through our area late tue-wed. However, this
will likely be a dry fropa. Highs in the upper 50s-low 60s on
mon rising into the mid 60s area-wide on tue, with morning lows
in the upper 30s-mid 40s on tue.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 200 pm edt Tuesday...

a cold front is located over nc as of 18z, with a low-level ne
wind across the region, mainly AOB 10kt, but locally 10-15kt at
ecg. Meanwhile, low pressure is approaching from the wsw and
moisture ahead of this system is resulting in bkn mid and high
clouds generally AOB 5kft, with the exception of ecg, which has
an MVFR cig in closer proximity to the front. This is expected
to lift by around 21z. Low pressure will track along the front
later this evening through early Wednesday morning, bringing a
period of -ra and potentially 3-5sm vsby, with CIGS falling to
MVFR or ifr later tonight into early Wednesday morning. The
least chc of -ra is at sby, with 60-70% elsewhere. Clearing is
expected from nw-sw later Wednesday morning along with a NW wind
aob 10kt as high pressure builds in from the nw.

Cool and dry high pressure prevails Wednesday night through
Friday. Another cold front pushes through the region Saturday
bringing a chc of -ra. High pressure returns Sunday.

Marine
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

north winds have diminished this afternoon as the cold front
stays south of the area. Expect winds to become easterly this
evening, then southerly late as a weak low pressure system
develops along the front over the carolinas. This low will move
offshore by Wed morning allowing winds to turn nw. Northerly
winds quickly increase to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt across
the entire coastal waters and bay early Wed evening as strong
high pressure builds in from the great lakes. Seas will quickly
build to 5-6 ft over the ocean and 3-5 ft bay. A small craft
advisory will likely be needed. Winds slowly subside Thu into
thu night as the center of the high moves over the middle
atlantic. The high shifts offshore for Saturday, allowing for
increased south-southwest winds of 15-25kt before another cold
front passes Sat night into Sunday.

Hydrology
As of 300 pm Tuesday...

numerous river flood warnings continue on the nottoway,
meherrin, appomattox basins. Also, have re-issued the areal
flood warning for locations along the mattaponi river where the
level is still steady or slowly rising at beulahville and a new
warning for bryants corner SE of kemv. See flwakq flsakq for
site-specific details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz alb
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz alb
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Mrd
hydrology... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 13 mi30 min NW 6 G 8 60°F 68°F1021.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 27 mi18 min N 5.8 G 12 60°F 72°F1020.3 hPa (-2.1)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 34 mi36 min 59°F 69°F1022 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 34 mi36 min N 6 G 8.9 59°F 69°F1021.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 35 mi30 min N 5.1 G 8 57°F 1021.5 hPa
44089 36 mi18 min 73°F2 ft
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi30 min N 5.1 G 8 57°F 71°F1020.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 36 mi30 min ENE 2.9 G 6 62°F 69°F1020.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi36 min NNE 7 G 8
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi30 min NNE 5.1 G 9.9 1021.5 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 42 mi36 min N 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 71°F1021.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi18 min Calm G 1.9 59°F 70°F1021.3 hPa (-2.6)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 44 mi18 min ENE 7.8 G 12 61°F 72°F1 ft1021.5 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA23 mi24 minENE 510.00 miOvercast64°F45°F50%1020.3 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi24 minNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F42°F50%1021 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE4SE6SE5S4S4CalmCalmSE5S5SE7S7S8S8S8S8S5S11S11S12SW13
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NW9NW6N4NW5CalmCalmW4NW3NW5N5N6N7N4NW3N4NW4NW5----CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Teague Creek, Manokin River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Teague Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:06 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:36 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:56 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.70.60.711.41.71.921.81.61.20.90.70.60.71.11.51.92.22.32.221.7

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:38 AM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     0.30 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:34 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.30.20-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.40.40.30.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.