Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Snow Hill, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:51PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 7:52 AM EDT (11:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 7:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 703 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through Thursday morning...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft...subsiding to 5 to 6 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning. Periods of drizzle with a chance of rain until late afternoon. Vsby one half mile or less in the morning.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Thu night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
ANZ600 703 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure over the delmarva will weaken as it moves off to the northeast later today. High pressure will become centered off the southeast and mid atlantic coast Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Snow Hill, MD
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location: 38.15, -75.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260831
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
431 am edt Wed apr 26 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure lifts along the northeast coast today, resulting in
a warming trend through the remaining work week. A cold front
weakens west of the region Thursday night. High pressure
prevails through the weekend. The next cold front pushes across
the region early next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Latest water vapor and surface analysis depicts vertically
stacked low pressure just offshore the delmarva. Moisture and
energy wrapping around the backside of the system is producing
an area of light rain/drizzle from the northern neck to
southeast virginia. Latest radar trends depict a decrease in
coverage, with latest rap/hrrr guidance pushing the upper level
energy offshore shortly after daybreak. As the energy slides
offshore, expect light rain to dissipate/slide offshore. Stratus
and mixing has limited fog development this morning. Given the
upper level cyclonic flow and low cloud bases, patchy/areas of
drizzle expected to linger thru mid morning.

The surface low weakens and slowly drifts northeast today as an
upper level ridge builds in from the west. Cloud deck will be
slow to erode/lift thru mid morning, with the late april sun
expected to erode the deck inland mid to late morning. However,
warming temperatures aloft ahead of the building ridge and wrap
around moisture from the departing upper low will keep a partly
cloudy to mostly cloudy sky across the area. Cloudy across the
far northeast, nearest the upper low and associated energy.

While soundings indicate drying aloft for the maryland eastern
shore, abundant low level moisture and some modest isentropic
lift will keep a chance of rain thru early afternoon. Mixing
will be limited today (south-southwest winds of 5-10 mph) due to
a strong subsidence inversion, but temperatures expected to warm
nicely into the mid to upper 70's. Cooler near the coast.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Friday/
The stubborn upper low finally picks up speed and pushes
northeast away from the area tonight as the ridge axis aligns
along the eastern seaboard. Lingering moisture will keep some
clouds along the coast, but clearing expected inland. Lows
generally in the upper 50's to low 60's.

Ridge axis slides offshore ahead of an approaching cold front
Thursday. Increasing return flow and 850mb temps around +14 to
+16c (around +1 standard deviation) result in warm (and dry)
conditions with highs generally in the mid 80's. Cooler along
the coast. Plenty of sunshine expected.

Aforementioned cold front reaches the central appalachians late
Thursday as an upper level trough lifts from the ohio valley
over the eastern great lakes region. Limited moisture return
expected ahead of the front as the best dynamics lift well north
of the mid-atlantic. The cold front progged to not make it over
the mountains Thursday night as southwest flow aloft prevails.

Pressure falls along the lee side of the appalachians will push
a pre-frontal trough across the region Thursday night. Given
modest theta-e advection and warm temperatures, guidance does
indicated some marginal instability across the piedmont Thursday
evening. However, temperatures aloft remain warm. Given the
limitations, have only slight chance to low end chance pops
Thursday evening. Better moisture progged across the eastern
portion of the local area late Thursday night, so have 30-40%
pops for scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Deepest
moisture pushes offshore Friday morning, with only a slight
chance pop across the far southeast. Sky becomes mostly sunny to
partly sunny Friday afternoon. Another warm day in store, with
highs in the mid (possibly upper) 80's. Cooler near the coast.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through
the weekend as an upper level ridge remains anchored over the
ern conus. 850mb temperatures ~18c will support highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 Saturday (75-80f at the immediate coast)
after morning lows in the mid/upper 60s. A weak front will knock
high temperatures down a few degrees Sunday over the ERN shore, with
low 80s expected and mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast. Meanwhile,
highs W of the bay will once again be into the upper 80s.

Aftn/evening chances for showers/tstms Saturday/Sunday will be low
and mainly AOB 20%. A cold front approaches from the W Monday.

Forecast highs Monday are in the low/mid 80s after morning lows in
the mid/upper 60s. 25/12z gfs/ecmwf/cmc support the best chc for
showers/tstms very late Monday aftn into Monday evening and shifting
to the coast late Monday night. Temperatures trend back toward
normal Tuesday with highs in the 70s.

Aviation /09z Wednesday through Sunday/
Latest surface analysis centers low pressure just offshore the
mid-atlantic coast. The result is ongoing widespread ifr
conditions over the region.VFR conditions currently observed
across southeast virginia into northeast north carolina, but
expect deteriorating conditions as the low slowly lifts
northward. Area of light rain along the coast has reduced
visibilities to MVFR. Surface winds have become northwest at or
below 10 knots. Ifr conditions prevail thru mid morning as the
low lifts slowly northward. Light rain wraps around the low,
mainly impacting the northern neck to eastern shore. Have kept
mention of patchy fog over the piedmont and eastern shore, but
due to stratus and the upper low lifting over the region, expect
areas of drizzle to persist through early-mid morning. Expect
improving conditions mid to late morning inland as ceilings lift
to MVFR and rain/drizzle/fog lift/dissipate. Ifr conditions will
be slow to improve ksby as the low slowly lifts northward.

Elsewhere,VFR conditions return with a generally broken sky.

Surface winds generally out of the west at or below 10 knots.

Low pressure lifts along the northeast coast Thursday as high
pressure/fair weather returns to the region. The next cold front
stalls north of the region Thursday night/Friday, with only a
chance of rain Thursday night. High pressure centers over the
western atlantic this weekend.

Marine
Marine dense fog advisory is in effect thru 7am for the coastal
waters north of parramore island.

Latest sfc analysis shows a weak pressure gradient over
the region, with sfc low pressure centered just off the delmarva
coast. Winds avg 10-15 kt (or less) over the entire marine area and
will be relatively light today, allowing flow to become onshore by
late aftn at 10 kt or less. Seas remain elevated at 6-8 ft north and
4-6 ft south and given the light winds have converted SCA headlines
to small craft advisory for hazardous seas, these lasting through
early this evening S and into Thu morning n. Elsewhere, a relatively
benign/decent boating day expected with waves 1-2 ft or less. The
gradient becomes a bit stronger on thu, with winds turning to the s
and expected to avg around 15 kt with some higher gusts. Some
residual swell around 9-10 sec and the increasing winds look to keep
seas elevated/probably coming back up to 5 ft offshore and a sca
headline may be needed for coastal waters. Marginal SCA conditions
possible for the bay/rivers Thu aftn/evening but overall would
expect this to be below criteria for headlines given a very warm
airmass (temps in 80s) over water temperatures in the 60s or
cooler leading to less than optimal mixing. Waves will build to
2-3 ft in the bay and 1-2 ft rivers. Similar conditions expected
fri/sat as the warm weather and a general southerly flow
persist. Some guidance depicting a backdoor cold front could
shift winds to the NE for awhile for northern coastal waters by
Sunday, but most places likely to stay south of this boundary.

Tides/coastal flooding
Have cancelled all coastal flood advisories.

Current tidal departures now avg +0.75 to +1.25 ft (lowering
from earlier departures that were closer to +1.5 ft). High tide
just occurred at cambridge and only peaked around 3.0 ft mllw
(and has passed all other areas). While water levels will remain
elevated through the next 48 hrs with seas off the coast of 4+
feet and continued 9-10 sec swell, the upcoming high tide later
today is the lower of the two and all sites should stay at least
0.5 feet below minor criteria. The following high tide cycle
tonight/early Thu morning could approach minor flooding and a
statement may be issued depending on trends today.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 pm edt this
evening for anz654.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 7 pm edt this
evening for anz656-658.

Dense fog advisory until 7 am edt this morning for anz650-652.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 am edt
Thursday for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Sam
near term... Sam
short term... Sam
long term... Ajz
aviation... Sam
marine... Lkb
tides/coastal flooding... Lkb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 16 mi52 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 54°F 54°F1005.1 hPa (+1.4)
OCSM2 17 mi172 min 6 ft
44089 27 mi52 min 53°F6 ft
BTHD1 30 mi172 min 5 ft
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 38 mi62 min E 3.9 G 5.8 54°F 51°F9 ft1005 hPa (+1.2)54°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 40 mi52 min NNW 7 G 11 57°F 60°F1005.9 hPa (+1.6)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 43 mi52 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 58°F 59°F1005 hPa (+2.1)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi52 min E 12 G 14 54°F 54°F1004.6 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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NE7
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NE7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD14 mi59 minN 00.25 miFog55°F55°F100%1004.6 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD17 mi58 minNW 60.25 miFog57°F57°F100%1004.9 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA17 mi58 minWNW 81.50 miFog/Mist57°F57°F100%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from OXB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E12NE13
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E9E6E6NE5E9E14
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E14NE4NE6NE3NE4CalmE6NE3E4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE11NE11NE12
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2 days agoN6NE10NE12NE10
G17
E10E10NE9E11NE9E10E8E5E6E7E9E8E7E6NE9NE8NE11
G17
NE12NE10NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Public Landing, Maryland
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Public Landing
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Wed -- 12:17 AM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 12:43 PM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:31 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.80.70.50.40.2-0-0.1-0.10.10.30.50.70.70.70.50.40.20-0.1-0.10.10.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:28 AM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:12 AM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 10:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:14 PM EDT     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
110.80.4-0-0.5-1-1.2-1.1-0.7-0.20.30.70.80.60.4-0.1-0.6-1-1.2-1.2-0.8-0.20.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.