Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tall Timbers, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:58PM Thursday April 27, 2017 12:56 PM EDT (16:56 UTC) Moonrise 6:21AMMoonset 8:25PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1031 Am Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft late.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Am Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak cold front will cross the waters tonight. A backdoor cold front will move south across the chesapeake bay region Sunday morning. A stronger cold front will cross the region from the west Monday night. A small craft advisory is possible Monday into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timbers, MD
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location: 38.15, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 271331
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
931 am edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches the mid atlantic region today, stalling
near the mountains tonight. High pressure prevails off the
southeast coast the rest of Friday through the weekend. The next
cold front pushes across the region early next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Update... Based on webcams and observation trends, any fog on the
md lower eastern shore has lifted into low stratus and will
continue to lift and scour out over the next hour or so as
south winds increase. Meanwhile, stratocumulus is moving
offshore as of 900 am with high cirrus pushing in from the west.

Additional mid to high level clouds expected to push into the
eastern piedmont this afternoon as a cold front approaches the
ohio valley. This may hamper full warming potential in these
areas and adjusted high temps down a degree or two as a result.

Also adjusted atlantic beaches down 5-10 degrees for highs with
temps starting out in the upper 50s this morning and an onshore
wind component over colder waters. Otherwise, today will be warm
with fair weather cumulus development by this afternoon.

Previous discussion...

latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a broad/anomalous upper
trough encompassing much of the western/central conus, with an
upper level ridge over the east. At the surface, weak area of
low pressure is located offshore the northeast coast with high
pressure well offshore extending westward over the southeast. A
cold front associated with the upper trough is located along the
mississippi river valley. A dense fog advisory remains in
effect for the lower maryland eastern shore, with an area of
dense fog visible in the obs and on satellite. Otherwise, only
some patchy fog inland as light southerly flow and relatively
dry low levels have kept widespread fog at bay.

Fog expected to erode/lift shortly after daybreak in response to
quickly warming temperatures. The upper level ridge axis slides
offshore late morning as the central us trough de-amplifies and
lifts over the ohio valley and into the great lakes region. An
associated cold front will reach the central appalachians late
today. Increasing return flow ahead of the front (southwest
gusts of 20-25 mph) and 850mb temperatures around +14 to +16c
(+1 standard deviation) results in a warm day, with temperatures
generally 10+ degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs generally in
the mid 80's. Cooler along the coast. Increasing mid to upper
level clouds late today may keep some of the far western
piedmont in the low to mid 80's. Otherwise, outside of some high
clouds spreading over the region today from a decaying line of
showers, a mostly sunny sky is expected.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Saturday/
Showers and thunderstorms progged to develop along the cold
front this afternoon from the ohio valley to the southeast. Hi-
res guidance pushes a weakened version of the convective line
into the piedmont early this evening as the upper level forcing
becomes displaced from the deepest gulf moisture. Short term
guidance indicating better moisture return compared to 24 hours
ago thanks to a developing 30-40 kt low level jet. Good moisture
flux advects anomalous precipitable water values into the
region ahead of the line/pre-frontal surface trough. Thermal
soundings indicate elevated instability as height falls and cold
air advection aloft steepen mid level lapse rates. Showalters
range from -1 to -2. Deep layer shear progged around 30-40 knots
due to increasing winds aloft. However, given the lack of
overall forcing and the convective line outracing the front,
have kept pops in the chance category tonight. Main threat from
thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall. Mild tonight, with
lows generally in the mid to upper 60's.

Weak surface trough/convergence boundary stalls near the coast
Friday morning as the deepest moisture pushes offshore. Even
though the best moisture pushes offshore, enough moisture and
instability near the coast will keep mention of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
early-mid afternoon. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge amplifies
off the southeast coast Friday. Early morning clouds and
convection will temper temperatures from reaching their full
potential Friday afternoon. Highs similar to today, generally in
the mid (possibly upper) 80's. Cooler near the coast.

Heights continue to build into Sunday as 850mb temps warm to +16
to +18c (+2 standard deviations). The result will be the warmest
day of the season with widespread readings in the low 90's.

Dewpoints in the 60's will push heat index values into the mid
90's inland. A backdoor front progged to drop into the northern
mid-atlantic region late Saturday, but models indicate large
spatial and timing differences. While the models indicate a
great deal of instability, soundings indicate a cap just above
850mb. Moisture is also limited with precipitable water values
at or below 1.25 inches. Will maintain slight chance pops across
the north near the dropping front, but believe sea-breeze
boundaries will struggle to overcome the lack of moisture and
warm temperatures aloft.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through
sun as an upper level ridge remains anchored just off the east
coast. A backdoor cold front could affect NRN portions of the
area Sat night thru Sun morning with a slgt chc of showers, then
a slowly approaching cold front from the west could produce
isolated or widely sctd showers or tstms Sun aftn into sun
evening, especially WRN half of the region. Lows Sat night in
the mid 60s to near 70. Highs on Sun in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

That cold front will push thru the mts by late mon, then cross
the area and move off the coast Mon night into Tue morning. Have
high chc to likely pops for showers/tstms during this period.

Highs on Mon in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Mon night mainly
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Weak high pressure will provide dry
wx for later Tue morning thru at least most of wed, as it
slides from the gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Highs on
tue in the 70s, and mainly in the mid to upper 70s on wed.

Aviation /13z Thursday through Monday/
Outside of ifr conditions due to fog across the maryland lower
eastern shore, widespreadVFR conditions observed early this
morning. Light southerly winds and relatively dry low levels
indicated in soundings will limit overall fog development but
some early morning patchy fog possible north and east of kric.

Ifr conditions prevail thru early morning for ksby, otherwise
skc.

Cold front approaches from the west today with increasing
southwest flow late morning through the afternoon. Expect gusts
of 20-25 knots. Scattered afternoon CU expected inland around
4-6kft agl. Weakening line of convection expected to push across
the region this evening through late tonight. Lower
ceilings/visibilities will be tied to convection.

Outlook... Next frontal boundary will provide a focus for more
shower/tstm development late sat. Cigs/vsbys lower in any
convective activity.

Marine
A cold front approaches the waters today resulting in an
increase of south and southwest winds through tonight. Deep low
pressure over the upper great lakes will move north into canada
which will relax the pressure gradient by Friday.

Southeast to south winds were generally 10 knots or less early
this morning. Seas subsided overnight but remain 4 to 5 ft north
of parramore island. While there may be lull in 5 foot seas late
this morning... They are expected to build once again late today
and into tonight as winds increase.

Replaced SCA for hazardous seas with a sca. This is to avoid
confusion with winds increasing today. The SCA was also expanded
to anz654 (parramore island to CAPE charles) where sca
conditions are expected to develop by this afternoon. There is
indication the SCA may be needed for the rest of the coastal
zones for a short period this evening but will let the day shift
assess the need. Elsewhere conditions are expected to stay below
sca. Although winds over land are expected to gust over 20 knots
today... The cool water will inhibit mixing over the marine area.

The cold front that approaches the waters today will dissipate
over the area Friday morning. A disorganized pressure pattern
will produce light winds over the waters Friday. Seas are
forecast to subside to below 5 feet by midday Friday. Benign
conditions are indicated for the marine area through the
weekend. Another deep low pressure system will move through the
upper midwest early next week. This along with an approaching
cold front will increase the pressure gradient locally and
another SCA may be needed starting Monday.

Tides/coastal flooding
There is gradual improvement in water levels that have been
elevated by a new moon and long period swells. Some locations
will continue to have high tides get within a few tenths of a
foot of minor flood. At this time... The high tide cycle early
Friday morning at bishops head maryland touches minor flood.

Climate
It appears likely that richmond and norfolk will end the month
with the warmest april on record. Warm temperatures during most
of the month combined with an unseasonably warm period to end
april are expected to push the average temperature above that
which occurred in 1994. At richmond, the previous record was
63.2 and at norfolk it was 64.7. Both were set in 1994. This
month's temperatures could be around a degree above those
values.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Friday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Alb/bmd
near term... Bmd/sam
short term... Sam
long term... Tmg
aviation... Sam
marine... Lsa
tides/coastal flooding... Akq
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 5 mi38 min SW 8 G 8.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 14 mi38 min SW 13 G 17 77°F 64°F1010.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi38 min E 1.9 G 5.1 71°F 60°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 18 mi26 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 1010.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi38 min S 9.9 G 11 62°F 1011.9 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi44 min SSW 6 G 9.9 78°F 64°F1009.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi26 min SSE 9.7 G 12 64°F 1011.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi38 min SSE 6 G 9.9 67°F 66°F1012.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi44 min 78°F 63°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi146 min SE 5.1 57°F 1011 hPa53°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi26 min SW 7.8 G 12 71°F 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD11 mi63 minSSW 810.00 miFair79°F64°F62%1011.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi75 minSW 1010.00 miFair77°F62°F61%1011.8 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD16 mi64 minSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F68°F67%1011.2 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi61 minS 11 G 1610.00 miFair80°F60°F52%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4W6W6NW54E6E4SE4CalmE3E4E3E4E5E4E4E3CalmCalmS5S5S6S9S8
1 day agoNE10
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NE8NE7N6N6N65--------------------5NW5NW8W85
2 days agoNE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Coles Point, Virginia
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Coles Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:18 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:55 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:55 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.82.32.52.421.40.90.50.1-00.10.61.21.72.12.21.91.40.90.50.20.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 12:11 AM EDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:55 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.40-0.4-0.8-1-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.5-0.20.20.40.30-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.