Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tall Timbers, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:36PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:11 PM EDT (21:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:07AMMoonset 11:46PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 432 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of this afternoon..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach from the north tonight before stalling out near the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night. Low pressure will track along the boundary, passing through the waters Wednesday and the boundary will drop farther south as a cold front Thursday. High pressure will briefly build toward the waters Friday before moving offshore during the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timbers, MD
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location: 38.15, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 182014
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
414 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the coast through Tuesday. A
frontal boundary drops into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday,
then stalls across the region through the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 330 pm edt Monday...

any convection across the SE along sea breeze bndry should
dissipate by 00z due to loss of heating. Also watching the sct
convection over the mts with the high res data suggesting some
of these storms drifting into the NW zones over the next few
hrs. Thus, will carry low pops across the NW and SE early. Otw,
mstly clr to pt cldy and muggy. Models are showing another night
of locally dense fog along the eastern shore beaches and ocean.

Lows in the low-mid 70s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
As of 335 pm edt Monday...

tues starts off pt to mstly sunny with temps quickly rising thru the
80s and into the 90s. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary approaches from
the north after 18z with the latest data showing sct convection
developing ahead of it as a weak S W drops se. The temps combined
with dp temps in the 70-75 degree range results in heat index values
rising above 100 with values AOA 105 mainly along and east of i95
and south of i64. Am a bit concerned about some mixing out of the
dew points across the piedmont during peak heating hrs. Thus, have
enough confidence to issue a heat advsry for eastern areas. Included
the richmond metro area in the advsry not wanting to split hairs.

Of course, this will all depend on just how fast the cloud coverage
increases and how fast any convection develops. In addition, some
strong to severe storms will be possible late afternoon and evening
given the already high CAPE environment and increasing 0-6 km bulk
shear of 25 to 30 kts. Heavy downpours possible given pw's apprchg
2 inches. SPC already has us in a marginal svr risk for damaging
winds. Highs top out in the mid 90s except upr 80s-lwr 90s ERN shore.

The strongest convection weakens Tue evening, but kept low chc
pops lingering thru the night due to the front sagging south
ivof the ches bay. Lows in the low-mid 70s.

Appears we do it again Wed as the frontal boundary stalls across the
area with enough heating to allow temps to reach between 90-95 south
and mid-upr 80s across the north. Models show a convective complex
dropping ese along the bndry resulting in the development of tstms.

Spc has most of the fa in a marginal svr risk mainly for damaging
winds (except the lwr md ERN shore).

The bndry weakens Wed night but kept chc pops through the night. Lows
70-75. More of the same Thursday with another round of convection
developing along the meandering frontal boundary. Not as hot with
highs in the mid-upr 80s.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 350 pm edt Monday...

models show strong ridging aloft remains over the southeastern
us and gulf coast states Thursday evening with a trough exiting
the northeastern us while a closed low and trough are entrenched
over the central us. The ridge over the southeast and gulf
coast will remain entrenched for the extended period and the
central us trough will lift into the great lakes and
northeastern us before it begins to shear out. At the surface,
the models show a cold front sinking south through the area
Thursday night into Friday before washing out on Saturday. The
question is how far the front GOES as the GFS and ECMWF get the
front well into the carolinas. The models often struggle with
how far south the fronts get this time of the year. So have held
on to some pops in the southern portion of the CWA Thursday
night into Friday thinking the front will linger a little closer
than the models currently show. Once the front dissolves on
Saturday, the flow will return to a southerly direction as the
high to the NE retreats and the low pressure over the great
lakes heads toward SE canada. This will allow the warmer and
more humid air to return to the area. Temperatures will rebound
from the mid to upper 80s on Friday to upper 80s to near 90 on
Saturday. This day should have the better chance for afternoon
storms with the added forcing of the upper trough.

For Sunday into Monday will see a return of the heat and
humidity as the ridge over the SE us remains in place with the
models trying to break it down on Monday with a cold frontal
passage. Right now the models show a much more vigorous trough
over the great lakes and northeastern us which would suggest
that the front would go through and would like generate some
convection along the boundary. So have increased pops back to
chance levels on Monday after reducing values to slight chance
on Sunday. Temperatures each day should be in the low to mid
90s. But will have to see if this trend of the models persist or
if the ridging over the SE us maintains it hold on the weather
and the fronts continue to stall out near the va nc region.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
As of 130 pm edt Monday...

low sc finally burned off withVFR conditions to start off the
forecast period. Sct-bkn CU ivof sea-breeze bndry for next
several hrs across sern TAF zones. Kept mention of thunder out
attm given low confidence of where any convection develops.

Patchy fog at sby towards sunrise with more fog over the ocean.

Any convection Wed ahead of the approaching cold front holds off
until after 18z.

Outlook..

Periodic shwrs tstrms Wed Thu as a frontal bndry remains stalled
across the region.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Monday...

winds will remain e-se into this evening at 10 kt or less. Winds
will veer around to the s-se then SW tonight while increasing to 10-
15 kt. Waves seas 1-2 ft.

Winds will become W then NW at 10 kt or less Tuesday morning as a
weak boundary crosses the waters. A weakening cold front then sags
south over the waters late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning,
turning winds to the n-ne (but still less than 10 kt). The
meandering front slowly lifts back north late Wednesday, with
onshore flow gradually becoming ssw late Wednesday evening and early
Thursday. This same front then drops back south across the waters on
Thursday, with a longer duration of ne-e winds lingering into
Friday, but with winds still no higher than 10 kt. Waves 1-2 ft;
seas 2-3 ft.

Climate
As of 345 am edt Monday...

hottest airmass of the season so far is expected today tue. Record
highs are listed below for reference:
* site today 6 18 Tue 6 19
* ric: 100 (1970) 103 (1944)
* orf: 99 (1944) 101 (1944)
* sby: 98 (2014) 96 (1993)
* ecg: 100 (2011) 100 (1944)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday for ncz012>017-
030>032.

Va... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday for vaz079>083-
087>090-092-093-096-097-513>516.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ess
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jdm
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 5 mi47 min SE 8 G 8.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 14 mi41 min ESE 8 G 9.9 85°F 78°F1014.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi41 min SSW 5.1 G 6 86°F 79°F1014.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi41 min S 13 G 15 79°F 1015.3 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi41 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 84°F 88°F1013.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi31 min SSE 14 G 16 80°F 1014.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi41 min S 8 G 8.9 85°F 1015.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi41 min 91°F 82°F1015.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi101 min SW 4.1 88°F 1015 hPa73°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi31 min S 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 1017 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD11 mi18 minSSE 610.00 miFair88°F70°F55%1014.1 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi34 minSSE 510.00 miFair88°F69°F55%1015.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD16 mi79 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F71°F55%1015 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi16 minSSE 310.00 miFair93°F71°F51%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E7E7SE4E5E6E4E5E4CalmCalmNE5CalmCalmCalmE4E5E4E4S6S345S6
1 day agoSE8S7SE76SE6SE6SE5CalmSE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmE5SE6E8E7S6SE5
2 days agoE8NE74CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6S5SE63CalmS7

Tide / Current Tables for Coles Point, Virginia
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Coles Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:24 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:30 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:05 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:15 PM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.511.622.22.21.91.410.60.200.10.51.11.61.92.121.61.20.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Mon -- 12:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:11 AM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:19 PM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.10.40.60.50.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-1-1.1-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.50.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.