Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tall Timbers, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:17PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:21 AM EDT (11:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:40AMMoonset 8:50PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 432 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
.gale warning in effect until 8 am edt this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through this afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 20 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 5 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Today..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft... Subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight, followed by a secondary cold front Wednesday. High pressure will return late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timbers, MD
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location: 38.15, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 241117
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
717 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Synopsis
A weakening cold front slowly push across the local area this
morning... Before pushing offshore tonight. High pressure builds
across the gulf of mexico Wednesday and Thursday... As low
pressure lingers from the great lakes to new england.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Latest analysis indicates ~1028mb sfc high pressure well off
the new england coast. To the west, deepening low pressure
continues to slowly lift across the upper great lakes this
morning. Attendant surface cold front pushing toward the coast
this morning, with quick clearing behind the front. Aloft,
dampening upper disturbance over the local area pushing
offshore, as lead shortwave currently over the mid-mississippi
river valley continues to dig longwave trough into the oh tn
river valleys.

Regional radar mosaic showing convection of earlier this morning
now diminishing to a narrow line of showers with locally heavy
rainfall across the va northern neck and coastal plain. Have
accelerated the clearing trend to the west this morning, with
clearing by mid to late morning for all but immediate coastal
zones, where clouds and showers will linger into late this
morning. Influx of higher pw air will lift S to N along the
front just offshore. Still rather warm as winds remain from the
sw. Highs today in the mid 70s W to the lower 80s SE as cold air
lags well behind off to the NW of the local area.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Overall, good model agreement between the 00z GFS and 12z ecmwf
(due to an unspecified error... 00z ECMWF is unavailable at this
hour). NAM now strongest deepest with the clipper wave and
amplitude of the east coast upper trough by late Wed thu.

Will side a little more to the aforementioned 00z GFS 12z ecmwf
consensus with this package. Surface cold front finally gets
pushed farther offshore this evening, with clearing along the
md coast overnight as cooler and drier air filters in after
00z. Lows will range from the upper 40s west of i-95 to the
mid upper 50s closer to the coast by Wed morning. On wed... Local
area looks to remain in between the sfc cold front well
offshore and upper trough axis cold pool aloft approaching from
our wnw Wed afternoon and evening. Some sct bkn CU will tend to
linger due to some shortwave energy aloft, but should be dry
with highs mainly in the m-u60s. For Wed night thu, shallow
layer of overrunning moisture could portend to a sprinkle or
two as the upper trough axis crosses. However, drier air in low
levels should make measuring rainfall unlikely. And therefore
have maintained rain chances AOB 10% for now for Wed night and
thu morning. Lows Wed night mainly in the 40s. High pressure
will build across the SE seaboard up into the local area.

Look for gradual clearing with highs in the low to mid 60s on
Thursday, as high pressure builds north across the local area
from the SE coast.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Long term period starts off dry Thu night Fri with sfc high pressure
over the immediate area and W SW flow aloft. With light sfc winds
under a clear sky, expect low temps Thu night in the low mid 40s
most of the area, and highs in the mid upr 60s fri. Attention then
turns to an approaching deep upper-level trough sat. Although any
pcpn will likely hold off until after daytime sat, included a 20%
chance of a shower in case the faster ensemble member solutions pan
out. Better chance of rain (40-50%) arrives Sat night Sun as strong
sfc low pressure forms out ahead of the upper-level trough. There is
still plenty of uncertainty over the track of this low, but the
possibility is there for moderate to heavy rain sun. High temps in
the mid upper 60s Sat drop to the upr 50s to mid 60s sun.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
Low pressure to the north and associated surface cold front
bringing ceilings down into MVFR LCL ifr range this morning. Se
or S winds 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt possible during
this time period, with higher gusts possible in stronger showers
or tstms. This front will push to the coast by daybreak, with a
return toVFR for all terminals but sby by 15z, with clearing
reaching the coast by early afternoon. MainlyVFR conditions
expected later Tue aftn evening through fri.

Marine
A cold front will push east and approach the marine area around
8-10am. The cold front is then expected to slow down and take
its time pushing east and offshore through this afternoon.

Southerly winds 15-25 kt with gusts into the low 30kt range
will occur this morning all waters as the front nears. Once the
front passes, expecting the wind direction to remain S sw
through the afternoon but with speeds diminishing to 10-15 kt
bay rivers and 15-20 kt currituck sound and coastal waters.

Waves will build up to 4 ft on the bay and to 6-8 ft on the
ocean.

Secondary cold front crosses the area tonight with sub-sca NW winds
developing behind the front into wed. Will maintain the SCA over the
ocean through the day Wed due to a prolonged period of 5+ ft seas
and into Wed night for the coastal waters north of CAPE charles.

Lighter winds and sub-sca conditions expected Thu and Fri with sfc
high pressure over the area.0

Tides coastal flooding
Both cambridge and bishops head touched minor flooding
thresholds this morning with tidal anomalies running 1.0-1.5ft
above normal due to strong sse winds ahead of a cold front.

Water levels at these locations could potentially remain
elevated for the next high tide cycle this aftn early evening,
which is the higher astronomical tide, despite lessening winds.

A coastal flood statement may be needed later today.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
anz635>638.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz650-652-
654.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Alb lkb mam
long term... Mas
aviation... Mam tmg
marine... Jdm
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 5 mi51 min WSW 8 G 12
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 14 mi51 min SW 11 G 13 67°F 68°F1008.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi51 min SW 13 G 17 68°F 69°F1007.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 18 mi41 min SSW 14 G 16 69°F 1007.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi51 min SW 13 G 16 69°F 1008.5 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi51 min SW 7 G 8 62°F 68°F1007.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi41 min WSW 16 G 19 70°F 1007.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi51 min S 17 G 21 69°F 68°F1008.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi51 min 70°F 68°F1008.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi51 min S 7 62°F 1007 hPa61°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi41 min SW 12 G 16 67°F 1008 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N3
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD11 mi88 minS 11 G 1610.00 miOvercast70°F66°F87%1007.5 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD16 mi29 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast67°F64°F91%1008.1 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi26 minno data10.00 miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4E7SE6E9
G15
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G17
E10SE8
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G21
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G27
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G23
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G27
S7S11
G16
S9
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SE6SE4E7SE4E4CalmSE4SE3CalmE3E3CalmE3E3E3E3E3E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm3N4Calm3CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Coles Point, Virginia
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Coles Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:32 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:04 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.71.21.51.71.81.71.30.80.50.30.20.40.71.21.71.921.91.61.10.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Tue -- 01:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:14 AM EDT     0.30 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:00 AM EDT     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:03 PM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:00 PM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.20.10.30.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.40.50.50.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.