Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Temelec, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:37PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 12:03 PM PDT (19:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:31PMMoonset 12:28AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay Suisun Bay The West Delta And San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 832 Am Pdt Wed Jun 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from noon pdt today through this evening...
Today..SW winds 15 to 25 kt.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 25 kt.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 20 kt.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 20 kt.
Sat..W winds 10 to 20 kt.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 20 kt.
PZZ500 832 Am Pdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... A 1023mb high pressure was located about 700nm west of Monterey bay and will continue to strengthen today resulting in increasing northwest winds, which will prevail through much of the upcoming weekend. Sustained gale force winds are expected along the big sur coast, south of point pinos, this afternoon and evening. Gale force winds will also be possible for the northern outer waters, north of pigeon point, Friday evening through Saturday morning. More details will be addressed in future updates. Steep fresh swell from the northwest winds will create hazardous seas into the weekend, particularly for operators of small craft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Temelec, CA
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location: 38.22, -122.43     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 201816
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
issued by national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
917 am pdt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis Not much change in weather conditions through
Thursday, then a pronounced warming trend for the end of the week
as high pressure builds in and winds turn more offshore. A return
to cooling and redevelopment of the marine layer appears in store
for Sunday into the first part of next week as flow shifts back
onshore.

Discussion As of 9:15 am pdt Wednesday... A good day to do some
computer work at NWS bay area with a classic june gloom weather
pattern. The marine layer rises up to about 1700 feet at sfo
(according to aviation data) which is exactly the same as at lax
this morning, over 330 miles away. Low clouds and patchy fog cover
most coastal areas and extend all the way into the southern
salinas valley. The high pressure ridge over the eastern pacific
is rather strong though and low clouds will retreat by afternoon,
but coastal areas will be the cool spot compared to inland areas.

Gusty northwest winds over the nearshore waters will combine with
a 6-7mb onshore pressure gradient for locally gusty winds into the
sfo bay region this afternoon. Insignificant changes in the upper
level pattern tonight into Thursday should mean a similar marine
layer result for the next 24-hours.

Synoptically-speaking, an upper level ridge continues to build
with its center located just off the baja california coast. Over
the next 24 hours, a shortwave trough will ripple through this
ridge's outer periphery and clip northern california. While no
precipitation is expected with this shortwave, this should limit
substantial warming for the north bay this afternoon. Southern
portions of the CWA such as the southern salinas valley and
interior san benito counties will probably be too far south to see
any influence from this shortwave and would be the most likely
locations to experience 3-6 degrees of warming from yesterday to
today.

The shortwave will quickly push east toward the northern rockies
by Thursday. For the san francisco bay area and central california
coast, not expecting much change from Wednesday to Thursday for
afternoon highs as the upper level ridge flattens. The ridge won't
stay flattened for long as models agree that broad high will
build offshore, pushing 500 mb heights over the bay area anywhere
from 590 to 592 dam by Saturday. At the surface, this will result
in hot conditions, mostly for interior locations, where highs are
expected to soar to the middle upper 90s to the triple digits.

Locations along the immediate pacific coast should remain
protected from these hot temperatures with just enough of an
onshore flow. This all changes as you head inland and or up in
elevation.

The big question at this point in time is exactly how hot it will
get along the sf bay shoreline for Saturday. One tool forecasters
use for determining the potential outcomes is through ensemble
forecasting. An ensemble is comprised of ensemble members
(anywhere from a dozen to several dozen, depending on the model),
each of which produces a slightly different forecast solution. The
spread of these forecast solutions is valuable to meteorologists
as we can see the potential spread through all the ensemble
members. Now, when looking at the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
(eps) for Saturday's heat event, some of the hottest ensemble
members -- at sjc, for example -- do exceed 100 deg f. The current
forecast package for Saturday does bump up maximum temperatures a
bit along the sf bay shoreline and the south bay, though
confidence still remains on the low side in regard to these exact
values as there remains a rather large spread in possible
outcomes. The potential heat risks based on this forecast does
introduce widespread moderate and isolated high risks across the
north bay east bay interior, south bay, and interior monterey +
san benito counties. Still a bit early to launch any headlines,
but if the current forecast holds, we'd likely be looking at heat
advisories for the warmest locations. Overnight low temperatures
will remain elevated in the thermal belts with some locations
at above ~ 1000 ft elevation likely to only cool to the mid upper
60s to 70s.

Another thing to mention for the late Friday to Saturday timeframe
is the potential for gusty winds in the higher elevations. The
gfs does advertise north to northeast winds for the north and east
bay hills mountains that could produce elevated fire weather
concerns. Will continue to monitor these forecast trends,
especially as we approach the event when the higher resolution
models are able to capture this with finer detail.

Models for Sunday suggest the start of what would be a welcomed
cooling trend across the interior. The latest GFS run even brings
in what could be a southerly surge along the big sur coast,
pushing north toward the santa cruz and san mateo coasts through
the day. Additional cooling is expected for much of the region --
especially interior locations -- heading into the beginning of
next week.

Aviation As of 11 am... Clouds scattered out from much of the
interior. However, stratus continues to impact some coastal
airfields, including kmry, as of 18z. Clouds will continue to erode
from interior areas through 19-20z with stratus expected to remain
along the immediate coast. Onshore flow this afternoon will increase
winds to around 12-15kt, with locally higher gusts. Stratus will
push back in again tonight, but confidence is low on exact timing
and coverage at this time. Thus we have opted to stick with a
persistence forecast.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR into the afternoon. Onshore winds around 20
kt, with gusts near 30 kt this afternoon and evening. MVFR ifr cigs
likely again tonight, best guess around midnight, give take a couple
of hours.

Sfo bridge approach...VFR into the afternoon. MVFR ifr will return
late this evening into tonight.

Monterey bay terminals... Ifr ceilings through the early afternoon
with periods of brief scattering possible.VFR possible by 21z but
confidence is moderate. West northwest winds 10-15 kt this afternoon
and early evening. Ifr lifr CIGS return this evening, around 02-03z.

Fire weather As of 3:30 am pdt Wednesday... A pronounced
warming and drying trend is forecast for the end of the week as
high pressure builds in and winds turn offshore. Saturday
presently looks to be the hottest day, with poor overnight
relative humidity recoveries for both Friday night and Saturday
night. Locally gusty north to northeast winds are possible in the
north and east bay hills Friday night and Saturday morning. A
return to cooling and redevelopment of the marine layer appears in
store for Sunday into the first part of next week as flow shifts
back onshore.

Marine As of 08:36 am pdt Wednesday... A 1023mb high pressure
was located about 700nm west of monterey bay and will continue to
strengthen today resulting in increasing northwest winds, which
will prevail through much of the upcoming weekend. Sustained gale
force winds are expected along the big sur coast, south of point
pinos, this afternoon and evening. Gale force winds will also be
possible for the northern outer waters, north of pigeon point,
Friday evening through Saturday morning. More details will be
addressed in future updates. Steep fresh swell from the northwest
winds will create hazardous seas into the weekend, particularly
for operators of small craft.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday Sca... Sf bay from 12 pm
sca... Mry bay from 12 pm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm from 12 pm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm from 12 pm
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm from 12 pm
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm until 2 pm
glw... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm from 2 pm
sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm
sca... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm from 2 pm
public forecast: rowe boldt
aviation: kml bam
marine: bam
fire weather: blier rowe
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 14 mi45 min WSW 8 G 12 60°F 1016.4 hPa
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 21 mi45 min WNW 13 G 16 62°F 67°F1016 hPa56°F
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 21 mi45 min SSE 7 G 8.9 58°F 62°F1016.8 hPa
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 21 mi78 min W 13 65°F 1015 hPa54°F
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 22 mi51 min S 13 G 15 57°F 1017.4 hPa
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 23 mi52 min SSE 8.9 58°F 1017 hPa
PCOC1 - 9415144 - Port Chicago, CA 24 mi45 min W 17 G 19 62°F 67°F1015.8 hPa
PXSC1 29 mi45 min 58°F 53°F
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 29 mi45 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 29 mi45 min WSW 8.9 G 14 57°F 1016.4 hPa
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 29 mi45 min W 4.1 G 7 58°F 1017.5 hPa
OBXC1 29 mi45 min 56°F 53°F
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 29 mi45 min WSW 6 G 17 54°F 57°F1017.6 hPa
LNDC1 30 mi45 min WSW 5.1 G 8 56°F 1017.4 hPa
PSBC1 - 9415115 - Pittsburg (Suisun Bay), CA 31 mi45 min W 13 G 19 70°F 1014.8 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 32 mi63 min 55°F4 ft
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 32 mi45 min W 5.1 G 7 56°F 66°F1017.7 hPa
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 33 mi45 min W 14 G 17 57°F1017.6 hPa
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 39 mi43 min NW 14 G 18 53°F 54°F1018.5 hPa53°F
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 46 mi43 min WNW 16 G 19 53°F 51°F1018 hPa53°F

Wind History for Richmond, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Napa, Napa County Airport, CA8 mi69 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F52°F63%1015.4 hPa
Novato / Gnoss Field, CA8 mi68 minS 7 G 1510.00 miFair64°F51°F64%1016.6 hPa
Petaluma Municipal Airport, CA10 mi68 minVar 5 G 1110.00 miFair64°F53°F68%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from DVO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4S965
G14
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N8CalmN6
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalm3SW7
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1 day agoNE4
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N5N4--Calm--CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4Calm5
2 days ago46SE11
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SW11SW11SW12W10W6NW5N8N7N7N4CalmNW3CalmCalmW6W4SW4CalmNW4CalmN6

Tide / Current Tables for Wingo, Sonoma Creek, San Pablo Bay, California
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Wingo
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Wed -- 01:27 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:10 AM PDT     1.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:52 AM PDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM PDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:03 PM PDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:18 PM PDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.42.51.91.71.92.73.64.44.74.43.72.81.70.80.2-0.10.21.22.53.95.25.85.75.2

Tide / Current Tables for Petaluma River Approach, San Pablo Bay, California Current
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Petaluma River Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:27 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:51 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:52 AM PDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 04:11 AM PDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:14 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:36 AM PDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:05 PM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:17 PM PDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:57 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.30.10.30.50.40.30.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-00.40.60.70.70.60.3-0-0.3-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.