Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chance, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:25PM Thursday March 30, 2017 12:43 PM EDT (16:43 UTC) Moonrise 7:45AMMoonset 9:33PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1031 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Friday evening...
Rest of today..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. Showers likely.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft...building to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of rain through the day...then rain likely through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore through tonight. Low pressure will approach the waters Friday before passing through Friday evening. High pressure will build over the waters again by Sunday. Low pressure may impact the waters early next week. Small craft advisories are possible Friday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chance, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 301405
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1005 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure becomes centered off the northeast coast tonight and
Thursday. Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries track
across the region Friday. High pressure builds over the area for the
weekend.

Near term /through tonight/
Current forecast on track with only minor changes to the grids.

Onshore flow around the high to the north will continue to pump
in mid level moisture as the days progresses. Result will be in
cloudy skies west and mstly cloudy east. Any light rain / shwr
activity expected to stay just west of the fa, mainly in the
favorable upslope areas. The clouds and onshore flow results in
a cooler day with highs ranging from the upr 40s-lwr 50s along
the coast, mid 50s-lwr 60s west of the bay.

Pvs dscn:
overrunning moisture pushes across the area late this evening
and overnight ahead of approaching upr level low. Will keep the
evening dry for most with light rain showers overspreading the
area by midnight far west... And after midnight east of i-95
midnight. Pops range from chc along the coast to likely across
the piedmont. Lows in the low- mid 40s.

Short term /Friday through Saturday/
Models remain in good agreement with handling of the upper level
low, which takes on a negative tilt as it lifts ene across the
oh valley on Friday. While the main low remains north of the
local area, NAM and to a lesser extent the ECMWF key into weak
meso low formation along the attendant frontal zone Friday
afternoon, with the triple point feature lifting e-ne across the
area Friday afternoon. This would present two distinct periods
of rainfall; the first a strongly forced, quick moving line of
showers producing rain Friday morning into early afternoon, with
a second line of convection possible for the mid-late afternoon
as the upper low and attendant surface cold front push across.

Pw's in the 1.25 to 1.50 inches and strong lift argue for rain
to fall heavily at times Friday morning. However, showers should
push through relatively quickly. Regarding the afternoon threat,
spc has now put the entire akq CWA in a marginal risk. Best
thunder chcs remain confined mainly across the southern half of
the area, with a slight chc across the north, where appreciable
clearing and destabilization is least likely. Strong deep layer
shear values would argue for at least a loosely organized
convective line with any t-storms that do fire, and reasonably
steep mid level lapse rates, lis <-4 deg c and CAPE maximized
across south central va and points south all argue for a narrow
window for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon across the
central/southern cwa, with the severe threat conditional upon
breaks in the overcast and resultant destabilization. In that
event, marginally severe hail, and damaging winds are the
primary hazards in any thunderstorms. Highs mainly in the 60s
to near 70 across the south, again dependant upon degree of
clearing after morning into midday rainfall.

Likely to categorical pops continue Friday evening with pops
tapering off after midnight as the low pulls offshore. Thunder chcs
will be limited to the evening with forcing and instability
waning quickly after sunset Fri night. Lows in the upr 40s-mid
50s.

Trailing upr level energy tracks across the eastern shore with
any showers tapering off before sunrise. Look for decreasing
clouds w/highs in the low- mid 60s eastern shore, mid 60s-lwr
70s west of the bay.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/
Weak high pressure returns to the region Sat night/sun with
nw flow aloft. Mostly clear skies and cool temperatures
anticipated with lows in the 40s Sat night and highs in the 60s
sun (upper 50s atlantic beaches). High pressure slides offshore
sun night/mon as the next low pressure system deepens over the
arklatex region/lower mississippi valley. The low continues to
track NE into NRN oh/pa Mon night into tue... Dragging a cold
front through the mid atlantic region Tue aftn/evening. Increasing
cloudiness late Sun night into Mon with similar temps to sun. Lows
in the 40s Sun night, and highs in the 60s Mon (upper 50s atlantic
beaches). Sfc pressure gradient tightens substantially late mon
night into Tue ahead of the approaching cold front. S-w winds
gusting up to 25-30 mph will be possible. Widespread rainfall is
anticipated during this timeframe with very low thunderstorm
chances due to rain occurring primarily in the morning. Warmer
temperatures Mon night/tue as a warm front lifts north through the
region. Lows Mon night in the mid-upper 40s far NRN counties (i.E.

North of the warm front) and in the lower 50s elsewhere. Highs
tue in the 60s far NRN counties and in the lower 70s elsewhere.

Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/
E-se flow allowing for some sct low stratus and patchy fog along
and ssw of phf/orf this morning. Expect the localized ifr/lifr
to mix out this morning. However, expect trend of lowering
cu/stratocu to continue today, albeit remaining inVFR range
through this evening. Strong low pressure over the southern
great plains will move northeast into the ohio valley later
Thursday, resulting in increasing mid to high clouds over the
mid atlantic region. Good model that ceilings will gradually
lower through the day from west to east with warm air advection
atop cool onshore flow at the surface. Mostly cloudy to overcast
conditions (ceiling in the 5 to 7 kft range agl) expected
through the day at ric, reaching SE terminals at korf/kecg by
mid to late morning.

Outlook... Low pressure will move from the ohio valley across
northern portions of the mid atlantic states to south of new
england by Saturday morning. Widespread rain develops late
tonight into Friday morning with a chance for thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and evening. Periods of MVFR/ifr will be
likely with visibility restrictions possible by Friday morning
and afternoon. Conditions improve quickly Saturday morning with
high pressure rebuilding back over the area for the weekend.

There will be a chance for showers western portions of the area
by late Monday as the next system develops over the mississippi
valley.

Marine
Latest sfc analysis shows high pres stretching down through the
mid atlc with a stalled frontal bndry over the SE states. Will
maintain the SCA over coastal wtrs today for seas up to 5 ft out
20 nm. Mainly 10-15 kt ne/e flow today, with the high sliding
offshore tonight and winds subsequently increasing late tonight
and especially into Fri as the next low pres systm and
associated cold front approach from the west. Marginal sca
conditions are psbl over the bay and more likely over the cstl
wtrs Fri with seas up to 6-7 ft, but will hold off on any
headlines for now with this being third period and some
headlines already in effect for today. The front crosses the
waters late Fri night/sat morning, with sub-sca winds expected
behind the front. Hi pres then builds in over the weekend.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Ajz/mpr/mam
short term... Mpr/mam
long term... Bmd
aviation... Mam/jef
marine... Bmd/mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 0 mi44 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 48°F 55°F1024.3 hPa (-0.7)
44042 - Potomac, MD 20 mi34 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 46°F 1023.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi44 min S 6 G 7 46°F 1024.6 hPa (-1.0)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi44 min SSE 8 G 8 46°F 49°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi44 min E 7 G 8.9 48°F 50°F1023.2 hPa (-1.3)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 27 mi44 min ESE 11 G 12 47°F 52°F1023.8 hPa (-0.9)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 27 mi44 min SSE 8 G 8.9
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 31 mi34 min Calm G 1.9 48°F 1024.8 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi44 min E 9.9 G 12 46°F 54°F1023.8 hPa (+0.0)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 47 mi24 min SSE 7.8 G 12 48°F 1024.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi44 min E 8.9 G 11 1024.4 hPa (-0.5)
44089 49 mi44 min 46°F3 ft

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD20 mi52 minSE 510.00 miOvercast48°F39°F71%1024.2 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi51 minE 610.00 miOvercast48°F37°F66%1023.9 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi64 minESE 710.00 miOvercast48°F30°F50%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11NE15NE14N10NE9N8N5CalmN4NE5NE4E4NE8NE7NE5NE6NE7NE8NE8E12NE11E7E7SE5
1 day agoW11SW6W8NW12
G16
N5SW3CalmCalmCalmN4N8N6N8N8N6NW5N4NE6N11N14N15
G23
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NE16N16
2 days agoSW14
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S12S9E5E6S3CalmE8S6SW6S3SW11SW9SW6SE6E5S7SW9SW10SW9S8SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Bishops Head, Hoopers Strait, Maryland
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Bishops Head
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Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:28 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:09 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:39 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.51.11.82.22.32.11.61.10.60.1-0.1-0.10.20.71.41.82.121.61.10.60.2-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:51 AM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:33 PM EDT     0.50 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:44 PM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.30.10.40.70.80.70.50.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.3-00.30.50.50.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.