Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chance, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:54PM Monday September 25, 2017 2:54 PM EDT (18:54 UTC) Moonrise 11:00AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 132 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 132 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the waters today, then weaken during the middle of the week as hurricane maria approaches north carolina. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A strong cold front will cross the region Thursday, with gales possible. Refer to the latest statements from the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chance, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 251735
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
135 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the mid atlantic today.

Meanwhile, hurricane maria will gradually track north well off
the southeast coast. Maria is forecast to approach the outer
banks Tuesday into Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front late in the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A mid upper level high remains anchored from the ERN great
lakes through the northeast CONUS early this morning, with
rather weak (~1020mb) high pressure at the surface. Hurricane
maria (presently a category 1) is situated near 31n and 73w as
of 5 am, which is about 350mi sse of CAPE hatteras. Mostly
clear early this morning, with some thin cirrus, and some bands
of stratocumulus approaching coastal NE nc. Temperatures range
through the 60s early this morning, with some low 70s for
coastal SE va NE nc.

The high will remain anchored N of the region today as
hurricane maria gradually tracks nwd. The current 25 00z model
consensus depicts maria about 300mi sse of CAPE hatteras at 18z
today. Becoming mostly cloudy along the coast today as model
cross-sections show moisture thickening below 900mb. Farther w,
conditions should be partly to mostly sunny. Remaining
unseasonably warm today with high temperatures ranging from the
upper 70s to around 80f at the coast, to the mid to locally
upper 80s farther inland. Mainly dry today with only a ~15% pop
for coastal NE nc this aftn.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
There is good model agreement showing maria reaching about
200mi SE of CAPE hatteras by 12z Tuesday, and the 25 00z ecmwf
has joined the remainder of the guidance with an ewd shift in
the track. Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps
slightly W of due N as an upper low drops sewd across fl.

Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result
in 20-30% pops along and E of i-95 Tuesday, but the ewd shift in
the guidance places the deeper moisture offshore. QPF will be
minimal for most areas. Lows will generally be in the mid 60s to
low 70s tonight, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday
under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming breezy along the coast with
a NE wind increasing to 15-25 mph along the coast Tuesday, with
gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

Maria reaches about 180mi ese of CAPE hatteras by 00z
Wednesday, around 150mi E of CAPE hatteras by 12z Wednesday, and
then 140-180mi ene of CAPE hatteras by 00z Thursday as some
spread begins to show up in the guidance. NHC has maria
weakening to a tropical storm during this time-frame. The
slight ewd shift will result in less rainfall across SE va NE nc
(and coastal md to a lesser degree), but there is still a
potential for modestly stronger wind gusts at the coast, higher
seas, and at least minor to localized moderate coastal flooding.

At this time, still don't anticipate heavy rain along the
coast, generally less than two inches, given maria's offshore
track. Will have pops of 20-40% east of i-95 Wed (40-50% coastal
ne nc), with slight chc pops into the piedmont. Wind gusts
could reach 30-45 mph from around norfolk va beach southward
into coastal NE nc where tropical headlines are in effect. The
biggest impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach
erosion along near the coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast
to the low mid 80s inland, after morning lows in the 60s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
First part of the extended, Wednesday night through Thursday,
will be predicated on future track of hurricane maria. Have
utilized superblend for tangible weather during this period,
given potential uncertainty in the track. Again, will stress
that the 12z ECMWF is ~50 miles closer to the coast than the gfs
and have weighted the forecast more toward its solution for the
extended. This would linger maria closer to the nc obx through
Thursday before eventually taking maria fairly quickly
northeastward away from the area on Friday in advance of an
upper trof dropping southeastward from canada. This trof and
associated cold front move into the region next Saturday.

Above normal temperatures continue on Thursday, with highs from
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures cool into the 70s
Friday Saturday in the wake of hurricane maria. Lows Wednesday
night range from the mid 60s to around 70f, then mid 50s NW to
mid 60s SE Thursday night, and in the 50s to low 60s
Friday Saturday nights.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
MVFR to local ifr conditions are prominent along the immediate
coast and portions of SE va NE nc this afternoon. Elsewhere,VFR
conditions prevail with a clear mainly clear sky. MVFR cigs
will gradually push farther inland this evening, reaching kric
around 03z, and potentially falling to ifr overnight at all taf
sites. A NE wind of 10-15kt along the immediate coast this
afternoon tonight will increase to 15-20kt with gusts around 25
kt Tuesday morning.

Outlook: increasing moisture from maria will result in a 20-40%
chc for showers Tuesday Wednesday. Locally stronger wind
speeds gusts are expected at orf ecg Tuesday night Wednesday. A
cold front approaches from the NW Thursday Friday and pushes
maria farther offshore with conditions improving
Thursday Friday.

Marine
Hurricane maria is located about 380 miles sse of CAPE hatteras
nc as of 500 am. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered
north of the area. The hurricane is forecast to track northward
well off the SE coast today into this evening, then moves to
well east of the nc outer banks by early Wed morning. The storm
will then start to track northeast Wed aftn and evening, then
accelerate ene out to sea late Wed night into Thu night. Ne
winds and waves seas will start to increase build over the
waters, esply SRN waters, this evening into Tue morning, as the
storm moves northward to well off the SE nc coast. NE winds will
increase to 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt by Tue morning,
with waves building to 2-5 ft (near 6 ft mouth of the bay), and
seas building to 6-10 ft.

Strongest NE winds and highest waves and seas will affect the
waters Tue night into Wed night with gusts to 35-45 kt a good
bet over the SRN ches bay, currituck sound, and va nc coastal
waters. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the currituck
sound, and SRN waters from the va nc border to currituck beach
light until 12z 800 am Thu morning. Aforementioned areas above
may be added to the watch this aftn, since impacts farther
north of the watch area are not anticipated to begin until tue
evening. Elsewhere, strong solid SCA conditions (20-30kt) will
occur. Seas will build as high as 14-15 ft south and 10-14 ft
north. N winds will then diminish west to east late Wed night
thru thu.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of hurricane maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Only expecting nuisance or minor flooding at the tidal gage
sites fm later today thru tue, then minor to possibly moderate
tidal flooding could occur at many sites in the middle to lower
bay, and SRN va and NE nc coastal waters Wed into Thu morning.

High surf advisories likely will be needed by tue, and lasting
into thu. The combination of storm surge and large waves could
result in some coastal erosion and damage to dune structures
later Tue into Wed night.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues through today, as 4-5 ft nearshore waves and
13-15 second swell persists.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Tropical storm watch for ncz015>017-102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz632-634-638.

Tropical storm watch for anz633-656-658.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Tuesday
for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Ajz jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Ajz jdm
aviation... Ajz jdm
marine... Bmd tmg
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 0 mi54 min E 5.1 G 8 83°F 81°F1016.1 hPa (-1.4)
44042 - Potomac, MD 20 mi44 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 1015.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi54 min N 11 G 12 77°F 1016.9 hPa (-1.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi54 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 78°F1015.8 hPa (-1.3)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi54 min 85°F 80°F1017.1 hPa (-1.3)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 27 mi54 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 78°F1016 hPa (-1.2)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 27 mi54 min E 6 G 7
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 31 mi44 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 1017 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi54 min ENE 12 G 16 72°F 77°F1016.3 hPa (-0.3)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 47 mi44 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 1 ft1016.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi54 min ENE 4.1 G 6 1016.5 hPa (-0.8)
44089 49 mi54 min 74°F8 ft

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD20 mi62 minN 610.00 miA Few Clouds86°F63°F46%1016.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi69 minNE 5 G 1110.00 miFair86°F66°F52%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW4NW5NW4NE3W3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmE4E55N53N6
1 day agoN10N12
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N6NW5CalmW5W4W3W3W4W3W5NW5W4W3W4NW5NW6NW4NW4N6N64
2 days agoNW10NW9NW8NW4NW6NW4W4SW5SW6W4W5W3NW5NW4NW4N4NW7NW6N5N7NW8NW8N7N8

Tide / Current Tables for Bishops Head, Hoopers Strait, Maryland
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Bishops Head
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 PM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.71.11.51.71.71.51.20.80.50.30.20.30.61.11.51.81.91.81.51.10.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:27 AM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     0.37 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:21 PM EDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:12 PM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.20.10.30.40.30.20-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.200.30.50.60.60.40.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.