Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chance, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:51PM Friday February 23, 2018 11:32 PM EST (04:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:29AMMoonset 12:52AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 937 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy drizzle late this evening. Patchy fog late this evening, then patchy dense fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm...decreasing to 1 nm or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy heavy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt...becoming s. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 937 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A boundary will approach the waters as a warm front tonight and it will remain nearby through Saturday night before eventually moving to the north Sunday. A cold front will pass through from the west late Sunday into Sunday night. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the waters on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chance, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240239
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
939 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly lift north through the local area
overnight. High pressure prevails off the southeast coast
Saturday night and Sunday. A cold front crosses the mid-atlantic
Sunday night and settles across north carolina Monday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Warm front will be continuing to make very slow progress n
across the local area overnight. Partial clearing had occurred
into central va and across most of SRN SE va-ne nc. Across the
nne... Low CIGS and patchy fg remain. Fg will be problematic
overnight W vsbys CIGS vrb. Have raised dense fg advisory over
most of the local waters due to increasing warm moist air over
colder waters. Over land... Will hold off on any advisory... But
one may be necessary (esp over central SRN and SE va-ne nc).

Otherwise... Partly to mostly cloudy W lows m-u40s N and central
areas (including the ERN shore) and l50s across NE nc.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
Much of the local area will enter the warm sector Saturday,
with fog stratus lifting and scattering in the morning. The warm
front will remain in vicinity of the NRN tier of the area. A
shortwave trough rounding the top of the SE CONUS ridge could
bring some showers across the n, mainly during the aftn and
evening. Forecast pops for these areas are mainly 30-50%, with a
thin corridor of likely across the far n. High temperatures
range from the low mid 60s over the md ERN shore, to the
mid upper 70s over SRN va and NE nc. The ridge builds back nwd
Saturday night with the warm front shifting N of the area.

Remaining mild with lows in the 50s to around 60f.

A cold front approaches from the W Sunday morning. This front
should be slow to cross the area given the strength of the
ridge, so have opted for an evening frontal passage. Very warm
Sunday with high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, with
low mid 70s over the ERN shore, and locally mid upper 60s for
the md beaches. See the climate section for recored highs. The
best upper level forcing lifts well N of the area, so pops at
this time are only 30-50% ahead of and along the front.

The cold front drops across the area Sunday night and settles
over nc Monday. A secondary low pressure tracks along the front
along with some mid-level energy and this could bring a period
of light rain, mainly across the SRN va and NE nc. Cooler behind
the front, but still above normal with lows Sunday night in the
50s and highs Monday in the upper 50s to mid 60s, but these
values could fall during the day.

Long term Monday night through Friday
The cold front pushes offshore with some lingering shwrs along
the SE coast Mon eve. Pt cldy cooler. Lows in the mid 30s to mid
40s.

High pressure over the area Tue shifts offshore Tue nite and
wed. Dry thru 18z Wed with isltd shwrs psbl across the piedmont
wed aftrn as moisture returns from the sw. Highs Tue mid 50s-lwr
60s. Lows Tue nite 40-45. Highs Wed upr 50s-mid 60s.

Low pressure moves NE into the gt lakes region mid week with
the advancing warm front lifting north across the region wed
nite and trailing cold front thurs. Models show a decent
moisture feed into the systm from the SW so will carry likely
pops (shwrs) for both periods. Kept thunder out of forecast as
that will depend on the actual timing of the cold frontal
passage. Lows Wed nite mid 40s-lwr 50s. Highs Thu upr 50s-
upr60s. Chc pops Thu nite as upr level systm is slow to track
across the NRN mid atlantic region. Lows in the 40s.

Cyclonic flow Fri will usher in a drier cooler airmass but
shwrs linger across the ERN shore as the upr level systm slowly
pulls offshore. Highs in the 50s to near 60 se.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
A warm front will gradually lift north through the region overnight.

Widespread ifr to lifr ceilings have developed along and north of
the boundary. Expect for the low stratus to persist through much of
the night into the morning hours, gradually improving from south to
north as the front lifts through the region. Ceilings are generally
expected to improve toVFR by Saturday afternoon, but ifr ceilings
may linger across the north (including sby) for much of the day.

Visibilities have also fallen off at many of the sites near the
coast, and the patchy fog will likely spread further inland
overnight. Expect visibilities in the 1 to 3 nm range at all taf
sites overnight with periods of lower visibilities, especially near
the coast. Visibilities are expected to gradually improve Saturday
morning. The warm front eventually lifts north of the region by
Saturday night early Sunday. Generally light and variable winds
overnight, becoming southwest Saturday morning.

Outlook: a cold front crosses the region Sunday night into Monday
bringing the potential for ceiling and visibility restrictions along
with periods of light rain. High pressure settles over the area
Tuesday and slides offshore Wednesday.

Marine
Winds becoming ssw for the overnight... Remain blo 15 kt.

Warm moist air over the colder waters will result in continued
areas of dense fg (into Sat morning) thus the issuance of a
dense fg advisory on all (but the rivers - will have 1-3 nm
vsbys those areas)... Otherwise 1 2 nm or less.

Offshore high dominates through the weekend with s-sw winds aob
15 kts, seas averaging 2-4 ft. Could see some gusts to 20 kts
sat nite, but not frequent enuf for any headlines attm. The next
cold front crosses the waters Sun nite with a wind shift back
to the n-ne for the early part of the week. No real CAA surges
noted behind the front, so kept winds seas below SCA levels.

Climate
Very warm temperatures will return over the weekend, record
highs are listed for Sat 2 24 and Sun 2 25.

* record highs
* site: Sat 2 24... ... Sun 2 25
* ric: 82 (1985) 83 (1930)
* orf: 82 (2012) 81 (2017)
* sby: 77 (2012) 80 (1930)
* ecg: 79 (1985) 78 (2017)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est Saturday for anz630>634-638-
650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Ajz alb
near term... Alb
short term... Ajz mas
long term... Ajb mpr
aviation... Ajb
marine... Mpr
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 0 mi45 min S 7 G 9.9 46°F 48°F1025.9 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 20 mi33 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 47°F 43°F1026.6 hPa (-1.6)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi45 min S 8 G 8 42°F 1025.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi45 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 44°F 43°F1025.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi45 min 46°F 47°F1026.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 27 mi45 min Calm G 1
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 27 mi45 min SW 8 G 8.9 50°F 49°F1025.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 31 mi33 min S 7.8 G 9.7 43°F 42°F1026.4 hPa (-1.0)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi45 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 49°F 52°F1026.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi45 min S 7 G 8 1026.8 hPa
44089 49 mi33 min 42°F4 ft

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD20 mi41 minN 00.50 miFog44°F44°F100%1025.2 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi40 minSSW 64.00 miFog/Mist48°F48°F100%1025.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi58 minS 41.00 miFog/Mist46°F44°F93%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE9NE8NE9NE6N6E7NE6NE8NE6NE5N4N5CalmNW6E3E4SE7CalmCalmCalmSE4SE4Calm
1 day agoSW8SW4E4CalmNE3NW7NW6N4NE5NE5E10E11E9E8E7NE7NE9N13N15NE12NE11E9NE7E11
2 days ago3CalmSW10SW8S5S7SW8S6SW9SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Bishops Head, Hoopers Strait, Maryland
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Bishops Head
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:52 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:55 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     2.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:52 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:22 PM EST     1.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.100.10.511.522.121.71.30.80.50.20.20.30.61.11.61.81.71.51.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:53 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:04 AM EST     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 04:53 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:20 AM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:11 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:38 PM EST     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:55 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:57 PM EST     0.24 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.200.30.60.70.70.50.30-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.200.20.20.20

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.