Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

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Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:36PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:31 PM EDT (17:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 6:40AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1037 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1037 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will remain stalled out across the area through today. It will then cross the region late Thursday or early Friday, with high pressure building over the waters at the end of the week and into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be necessary Thursday night and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191132
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
732 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
A weak trough will linger across the region today. A strong
cold front pushes through the region late Thursday afternoon and
evening. High pressure will build into the area on Friday and
settle across the region through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 350 am edt Wednesday...

latest analysis indicates a moist SW flow aloft and a weak sfc
trough lingering across the region early this morning. Scattered
showers continue over the eastern shore and also into nc with
just spotty light showers elsewhere. Temperatures range from
the upper 60s in the piedmont to the lower-mid 70s closer to the
coast.

For today, following closely to the href mean and hrrr and this
seems to match well with current conditions and the stream of
moisture evident on IR satellite. Overall, less shear and
forcing is present today compared to the past 2 days so severe
threat is limited. However, a very moist atmosphere with pwats
~2", a lingering sfc trough, and weak upper troughing support
another round of likely pops today, especially across SE va and
ne nc (60-70%). A little more uncertain for central va and the
md eastern shore but will have pops around 40-50% for this area.

Locally heavy rain is possible, but widespread flooding is not
anticipated given that storms will be short lived and not very
well organized. Cooler given ample cloud cover and only brief
breaks of partial Sun with highs mostly in the lower to mid 80s
(if more Sun occurs, some upper 80s will be possible). Pops will
tend to diminish this evening and somewhat drier air aloft
pushes in overnight so will have a mostly dry forecast after
06z. Lows upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short term Thursday through Friday
As of 350 am edt Wednesday...

models continue in good agreement with a cold front crossing the
area late Thu aftn and pushing off the coast Thu evening. Rather
significant amplification of the upper trough as the front
passes through and models generally have the shortwave over the
area as opposed to being N of the local area. For this reason,
will maintain likely pops for all areas at least for a few hrs
as the front moves through. Timing for highest pops looks to be
from 18-21z nw, 21-00z central, and 00-03z se. Limiting factors
for widespread precipitation are a rather strong wsw low level
flow that often leads to some drying E of the appalachians. With
strong daytime heating (highs into the lower to perhaps mid 90s
se 1 2 of the area and upper 80s around 90f nw), there still
should be sufficient instability for some strong to severe
storms and SPC has the area in a marginal severe risk but close
to a slight risk to the N and also to the sw. Main severe
threat will be from damaging straight line winds.

Once the front crosses should begin to see drier air pushing in
and the rain chances diminishing Thu evening from NW to se. The
models continue to depict the upper trough swinging through
into Friday. Not confident in having pops most areas in the
forecast given a lot of drier air moving in, but do expect skies
to be partly variably cloudy on Fri rather than mostly sunny
all day. Did include a 20% pop Fri morning across the eastern
shore along the track of the secondary shortwave. For Friday
have highs in the low to mid 80s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 400 pm edt Tuesday...

high pressure to the north keep it dry sat, although some
diurnal convection psbl not far off to our sw. High 80-85,
75-80 at the beaches. A warm front slowly lifts north Sat night.

Enough moisture noted across the piedmont to have low chc pops
after midnite. Lows 65-70.

The front lifts north of the area Sun allowing the bermuda ridge to
establish itself across the region through Tuesday. NW flow along
with a lee trof will result in sct mainly diurnal convection each
day. Warmer and more humid. Highs Sun mid-upr 80s inland, 80-85
along the coast. Lows Sun night upr 60s-lwr 70s. Highs Mon tue
upr 80s-lwr 90s inland, low-mid 80s along the coast. Lows mon
night 70-75.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 730 am edt Wednesday...

mostlyVFR conditions are observed across the area but flight
restrictions are not far away as an area of low clouds in the
piedmont has spread into portions of central and southern va.

Most of the guidance suggests the highest coverage of
shower tstms later today will be across SE va but certainly a
chance for showers all sites today. For now went primarily with
vcsh wording with shra in the SE this aftn. Generally improving
conditions this evening as bulk of showers moves offshore
(though some low CIGS could redevelop later tonight into early
thu).

Outlook: mainly dry Thu morning into early aftn and becoming
breezy with W SW winds. Scattered showers tstms expected during
the aftn early evening as a cold front moves through. Then, drier
withVFR conditions Fri sat.

Marine
As of 420 am edt Wednesday...

no headlines in the short term today thru thu. Ssw winds will
continue across the waters, as high pressure remains well off
the SE coast and a cold front will eventually approach from the
west during thu. Expect mainly ssw winds 5-10 kt today into
early tonight, then will be SW and increase to 10-20 kt Thu aftn
into Thu night in advance of the cold front. That cold front
will cross the waters late Thu night into Fri morning, with
winds 10-20 kt becoming west then northwest. Very brief sca
conditions will be possible over the ches bay and the nrn
coastal waters late Thu night thru Fri morning. High pressure
builds over the area during Fri and into sat.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb
long term... Mpr
aviation... Lkb
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 13 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 6
NCDV2 17 mi49 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 80°F 79°F1008.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi43 min SSW 6 G 7 81°F 75°F1009 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi43 min SSW 8 G 9.9 1009.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 23 mi43 min S 12 G 13 75°F 1010.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi37 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 79°F 78°F1008.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi49 min SW 9.9 G 11 78°F 81°F1010.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi43 min 1009.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi43 min S 2.9 G 6 79°F 77°F1009.4 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi48 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F71°F79%1010.2 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD18 mi38 minS 810.00 miFair85°F78°F80%1009.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi39 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F82%1009.3 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W6W5SW4CalmCalmS7
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1 day agoSE4S5CalmS9
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Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Maryland
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Colton's Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:40 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:58 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:18 PM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.11.622.22.21.91.510.60.30.10.30.61.11.51.81.91.81.510.60.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Wed -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:58 AM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:03 PM EDT     0.33 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.60.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-1-1.1-1-0.8-0.5-0.20.10.30.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.