Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:50PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 6:29 AM EST (11:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 2:33AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 336 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
ANZ500 336 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. After a cold front departs to the southeast this evening, high pressure will then follow through Wednesday. The next system will approach from the southeastern united states late Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180847
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
347 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will settle over the region tonight through
Wednesday. The next area of low pressure approaches from the
southwest Thursday and brings another round of rain Thursday
afternoon into early Friday. The low moves into new england by
Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 250 am est Tuesday...

latest weather analysis reveals sfc low pressure sliding ne
across atlantic canada early this morning. The associated sfc
cold front extends s-sw offshore and to the south of the local
area. To the west, 1026+mb sfc high pressure centered over the
great lakes ohio valley continues to push east... And will settle
over the region today and tonight. Cooler but seasonable temps
today with highs mainly from 45-50 f (coolest NE and warmest
sw), under a mainly sunny sky.

Some sct-bkn clouds tonight as a dampening upper shortwave
currently over the ARKLATEX region slides across the area
tonight. Lows from the m-u20s inland to u20s- around 30f SE va-
ne nc coastal areas Tue night.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
As of 250 am est Tuesday...

high pres shifts offshore tomorrow, W dry seasonable conditions
to continue. Highs Wed in the u40s-around 50f N and NW to the
l50s s. Some increase in clouds possible late in the day into
Wednesday night. High pres drifts farther off the coast wed
night while strong amplification of trough aloft begins over the
central and southern plains. With clear sky to start, expect
temperatures to drop off rapidly Wed evening into the m-u30s to
l40s... Then become steady overnight as clouds increase and
thicken lower.

Models in reasonably good agreement at this stage for Thu thu
night system. Still appears mainly dry until daybreak for much
of the area on thu, though did increase to chc pop over the se
into Thu morning) with upglide overrunning rain showers looking
to begin quickly Thu morning across the SE coastal plain.

Strong forcing deep-layered ssw flow to allow rain chances to
ramp up quickly from SE to NW Thu morning, with categorical to
likely rain chances for Thu afternoon and night. Highs thu
in the 40s inland NW to the l60s se. Still some time for
modeled QPF numbers to jostle around a little bit, but the prob
matched mean values lined up well with wpc qpf, which ranges
from 1-2" across the area.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 145 pm est Monday...

the highly amplified trough aloft exits the ms valley thu
evening... Shifting E through fri. Lo pres INVOF mid south thu
evening tracks NE through the ERN oh valley fri... Pushing a
cold front to the E coast by late fri. Timing remains fairly
consistent over the past few runs of the models. Consensus shows
a significant push of deep layered moisture NE through the fa
thu night into early Fri which then spreads toward the NE conus
during fri. Another period of moderate heavy ra possible... Then
the trailing upper level trough crosses the region late Fri into
early Sat may bring additional sct pcpn. Drying out and cool
for the weekend as the lo pres departs into the far nrn
atlantic. A cold front in zonal flow aloft arrives by late mon.

Mild Thu night W lows Thu night in the m-u40s NW to the l-m50s
in E and se. Highs Fri in the l-m60s (possibly even warmer if
ra diminishes in coverage). Lows Fri night in the l-m40. Highs
highs Sat 50-55f. Lows Sat night in the l-m30s W to the u30s-
around 40f at the coast. Highs Sun in the u40s N to the m50s s.

Highs Mon in the u40s N to the l50s s.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 1255 am est Tuesday...

vfr conditions across area terminals will persist through the
06z TAF period and beyond into midweek. Sfc winds have veered
around to the nnw behind a cold frontal passage, winds will gust
briefly this morning, especially at sby and orf but will
diminish through the day Tuesday. Clear skies and high pressure
remain in control through the period.

Outlook: high pres prevails Tue night and wed. Surface low pres
approaches from the SW Thu and will likely bring another round
of diminishing ceilings and eventually some flight restrictions
(cigs and vsby) in increasing rain chances beginning later thu
and continuing into fri.VFR conditions then quickly return for
next weekend.

Marine
As of 345 am est Tuesday...

elevated winds on the bay, currituck sound and the coastal waters
will subside by late this morning into the afternoon as high
pressure returns behind a departing trough of low pressure. Winds
are currently running 15 kt or less over the rivers, so have
cancelled scas already. N to NW winds 15 to 25 kt this morning for
the remaining waters. Seas 4-6 ft; waves 2-4 ft. SCA for the
currituck sounds expires at 10am, the bay and northern coastal waters
at 1 pm and the southern coastal waters by 4 pm.

Quiet marine conditions expected tonight thru thurs morning, before
another area of low pressure impacts the region late Thu into fri.

This will likely bring another round of SCA conditions to the
region, lasting into Saturday.

Hydrology
As of 255 am est Tuesday...

flood warnings continue for bremo bluff, richmond-westham and
the locks. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please
refer to the latest fls product for site-specific details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
anz630>632-634-650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Alb mam
long term... Alb
aviation... Mam
marine... Eri jdm tmg
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 13 mi66 min NNW 19 G 22
NCDV2 17 mi66 min NW 5.1 G 8 38°F 43°F1018 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi60 min NNW 6 G 7 38°F 44°F1017.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi66 min NNW 12 G 17 40°F 43°F1017.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 23 mi66 min N 23 G 26 39°F 1018.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi60 min NNW 18 G 21 40°F 1016.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi60 min NNW 14 G 19 37°F 42°F1017.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi120 min NNW 5.1 39°F 1017 hPa25°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi66 min 40°F 42°F1017.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi60 min N 7 G 12 40°F 42°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi47 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F28°F75%1018.6 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD18 mi37 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F26°F62%1018 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi98 minWNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds40°F26°F58%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Maryland
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Colton's Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:33 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:48 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:44 AM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:17 PM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.80.30-000.30.71.21.61.71.81.51.10.70.30.100.10.40.91.21.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Tue -- 01:11 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:32 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:02 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM EST     0.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:34 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:27 PM EST     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:53 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:09 PM EST     0.24 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:58 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.30.60.60.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.200.20.2-0-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.