Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:52PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:25 PM EST (19:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:04AMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1233 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening...
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers with areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely through the day, then a chance of rain through the night.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will approach from the south this afternoon before passing through later tonight through Tuesday morning. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected behind the boundary later Tuesday through Wednesday. A cold front will pass through the waters later Wednesday night into Thursday and it will remain stalled to our south through Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191758
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1258 pm est Mon feb 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure slides offshore today, allowing for a return of
moisture. A warm front lifts through the area tonight. High
pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast Tuesday and
Wednesday bringing a return to well above normal temperatures.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Main batch of stdy rain now moving into the SRN half of the fa
with light rain drizzle across the rest of the piedmont. Exception
is the lower md eastern shore where little if any rain has fallen.

High res data continues to show the pcpn tapering off to light
rain drizzle this aftrn but remaining cloudy overcast as the
lower levels become or remain saturated. Thus, adjusted grids a
bit to fit this scenario. Temps slow to rise but do expect
readings to reach 50-55 late this aftrn with the lwr 60s across
the se. Attention then turns to fog development tonight which
will be addressed in the aftrn update.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
Increasing SW flow tonight as upper ridge axis begins to
amplify build off the SE coast. Models indicate some continued
light QPF amounts overnight, but there is little forcing for
precipitation so will genly keep pops capped at less than 20%.

Milder with little drop in temperatures due to the SW flow, lows
ranging from the upper 40s well inland to the lower-mid 50s se.

The local area will be firmly in the warm sector on tue, with
strong upper ridge centered over the gulf stream off the se
coast. However, GFS nam continue to depict a lot of low level
moisture across the area and fairly shallow mixing per bufkit
soundings through the entire day. This is probably overdone and
suspect the SW low level flow and 850mb temperatures rising to
+10 to +12 c will be sufficient to scour out the low level
clouds by late morning and allow for a partly sunny aftn. Highs
expected into the 70s except for locally cooler conditions at
the immediate coast. Very warm Tue night into Wed with continued
sw flow. Approaching sfc cold front to remain west of the
appalachians through the day which will limit chances for rain.

The gfs ECMWF nam do show an area of enhanced moisture pushing
into the piedmont during the late morning aftn but this will
likely just translate into a little more cloud cover. Partly
sunny overall with highs mainly ranging from the mid to upper
70s except for locally cooler conditions at the immediate coast.

If it turns out mostly sunny with deeper mixing than
anticipated, some locales could rise into the lower 80s. See
record highs below.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Region will overall be dominated by mid upper level ridging
during the extended period. Shortwave trof will temporarily
break down the ridge Wednesday night Thursday, allowing a cold
front to drop through the region from the N NW on Thursday.

High pressure will build to the north of the region behind the
front cold front, with temps dropping back closer to normal for
Friday. Front potentially moves back north of the region by
Saturday, allowing for another surge of warmer air to move into
the region for Saturday Saturday night. Gfs ECMWF are in some
disagreement with how far the warm front gets, as well as how
quickly the next cold front moves into through the region. Ecmwf
less bullish in moving warm front north, which causes the
Saturday Sunday period to be more unsettled, and potentially
cooler than GFS would suggest. At this point, have used the
blended model solution, which sides toward a warmer day 6 7
period.

Outside of the model inconsistency in the day 6 7 period, the
chances for rain appear most likely on Thursday with cold
frontal passage, and possible Friday into Friday night, as front
tries to lift back northward. Temperature-wise, another warm
day on Thursday ahead of the cold front, with high temps in the
60s low 70s. Cooler Friday with highs in the 50s to around 60,
then potentially warmer on Saturday, with most areas in the 60s.

If ECMWF is correct, warmer temps will be restricted to the
southern half or so of the cwa. Sunday also remains uncertain
with regard to temperatures, but they should still be above
normal. Overnight lows in the 40s to around 50 Thursday and
Friday night, then in the 50s Saturday night.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Steady batch of rain has moved east but tsctns loaded with
moisture at most levels to keep ifr conditions due to drizzle
and fog through 12z. Models showing vsbys as low as 1 2sm in fog
tonight. A warm front will lift north of the region tues morning
slowly drying out the upr levels while the lwr levels are slow
to scour out. Thus, CIGS will be slow to rise into MVFR range
by or shortly after 15z Tue withVFR conditions not expected
until the end of the forecast period. Some SW wind sheer noted
ivof the warm front near sby Tue morning as well.

Outlook...

a back door cold front approaches from the NW Wed night then
drops south across the area thurs. Expect a return to ifr MVFR
conditions in rain fog thurs behind this feature.

Marine
Latest obs buoy reports reflect e-se flow ~10kt this morning. Sfc
high pressure in place over the waters is allowing for light winds
early this morning, with winds to veer around to the sse from late
morning through this afternoon, then ssw tonight as high moves
offshore and sfc warm front lifts north of the region (accompanied
by sct numerous showers today.

Sub-sca ssw flow persists tonight through midweek, with waves
generally 1-2 feet on the bay, and 2-3 feet on the ocean. With winds
remaining below SCA criteria, will need to monitor for marine fog,
especially Tuesday night and Wednesday, as dew points increase into
the 50s.

Back door cold front drops across the region on Thursday, turning
winds to the N NE over at least northern waters during the day on
Thursday. Deterministic guidance is still split over how far south
the boundary slips before washing out or weakening lifting back
north on Friday. In either event, weak CAA behind the front likely
will keep winds below SCA criteria through much, if not all of this
period. Nwps indicating potential for some increasing wind wave by
wed night early Thursday, which could make for some choppy seas
during this period in NE flow before winds gradually veer back to
the S by later Friday as boundary lifts back north.

Climate
Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged tue
2 20 and Wed 2 21:
* record highs:
* date: Tue 2 20 Wed 2 21
* ric: 77 (1930) 75 (1930)
* orf: 77 (1991) 79 (2014)
* sby: 75 (1930) 75 (1943)
* ecg: 78 (1991) 77 (2014)

Equipment
Kakq radar will be down ufn. See ftmakq for details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm mpr
short term... Jdm lkb
long term... Wrs
aviation... Mpr
marine... Mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 17 mi38 min ESE 1 G 1 43°F 43°F1028.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi38 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 40°F1029.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi38 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 44°F1029.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 23 mi38 min S 5.1 G 6 41°F 1030.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi26 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 42°F 42°F1028.8 hPa (-2.8)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi26 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 41°F 38°F1029.7 hPa (-2.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi38 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 43°F 44°F1029.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi38 min 51°F 44°F1030.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi38 min SSW 4.1 G 6 42°F 42°F1029.5 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi69 minN 02.50 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1030.1 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD18 mi33 minSSE 41.50 miOvercast with Haze50°F30°F46%1028.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi94 minVar 52.50 miFog/Mist43°F43°F100%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmSE6E3CalmCalmCalmE3SE3SE4SE4SE5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S5S4Calm
1 day agoE6SE3CalmE5E3CalmE3CalmW3SW3SW4W4W7W5W6CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4N6
G16
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2 days agoSW4W4NW7
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NW4NW5NW3NW3NW3NW5CalmN3CalmCalmNE4NE6E8E7E6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Colton's Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:37 AM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:02 PM EST     1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:52 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.61.21.61.81.91.61.10.70.30-00.10.40.91.41.71.81.71.30.80.30-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Mon -- 01:38 AM EST     0.48 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:57 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:46 PM EST     0.40 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:06 PM EST     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.40.50.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.200.30.40.30-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.