Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:00PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 9:26 AM EDT (13:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:41PMMoonset 6:15AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 736 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Today..SE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Patchy fog this morning. Scattered showers with areas of drizzle this morning, then scattered showers with isolated tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 736 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will push northward across the waters today. A cold front will then approach the waters from the ohio valley Wednesday, and will likely stall south of the waters Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday night and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 251037
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
637 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis
Strong high pressure slides into the canadian maritimes today.

Low pressure approaches the mid atlantic coast from the southeast
tonight, then recurves to the northeast and tracks across the virginia
capes Wednesday. A cold front moves into the region Wednesday night,
then stalls across the southern part of the local area Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 630 am edt Tuesday...

latest msas shows the frontal boundary nearly stationary along
the va nc coastal plain with the wedge holding firm across the
piedmont but starting to show signs of eroding closer to the
ches bay. Meanwhile, a weak tropical low is about 300 miles se
of hat. Whether this system gets upgraded or not today, it will
make for a rather interesting forecast as this low approaches
the carolina coast late this afternoon. I am always lery of any
tropical circulation nearing the coast (especially during peak
heating hrs).

Before that occurs, the e-se flow ahead of this system will
likely allow the wedge to erode as the strong high to the
north moves farther east. What this will do is allow the airmass
to become more tropical in nature after the morning crud burns
off. Given plenty of residual low level moisture and the
advancing tropical moisture, will have likely pops across the
sern zones this aftrn. Can't rule out sct shwrs tstrms as far
west as the i95 corridor and ERN shore with slght chcs across
the WRN piedmont. Summer heat humidity return with highs from
the upr 70s NW zones to the low-mid 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
As of 330 am edt Tuesday...

the tropical low is progged to "re-curve" along the gulf stream wall
tonight then turn NE and accelerate across the vacapes ahead of an
approaching cold front wed. Moisture fields suggest any significant
pops will be confined to coastal areas as the low pushes NE late
tonite. Otw, a warm and humid night ahead with lows from the upr 60s
nw to lwr 70s se. Some fog shud develop in most areas after midnite.

Some lingering shwrs along the coast Wed morning, but most of the area
remains dry thru abt 18z ahead of the apprchg cold front. Expect enough
heating for temps to quickly rise into the mid- upr 80s. (no where near
the record highs which are in the mid 90s). Moisture quickly moves east
of the mts after 18z with shwrs tstrms expected to overspread the area
west to east late in the aftrn. Will maintain likely pops across the
west with chc pops east. Any severe threat remains north of the fa, but
would not be surprised to see a few strong storms across the
far NRN zones late with the threat being gusty winds and hvy
rainfall.

The front slows to a crawl Wed night keeping likely to high chc pops
across the local area. Thunder chcs shift to the SRN zones after
midnight as the winds across the NRN half of the fa turn north. Lows
60 NW to lwr 70s se.

Deja vu Thursday. Models show the front stalled across the carolinas
with low pressure resulting in another overrunning insitu-wedge
scenario across the local area. Thus, will carry likely pops
for now with highs ranging from the mid 60s NW to near 80 se.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 305 pm edt Monday...

forecast period starts with a cold front pushing through the
area on Friday, as broad high pressure builds to the north of
the area Friday night into Saturday. GFS remains a bit quicker
to bring cooler and drier air through post-frontal during the
day on Friday, so did lower pop slightly Friday afternoon, but
did maintain a slight chance mention for all but far NW piedmont
zones. Weekend looking a bit cooler and drier, or at least
relatively speaking... As temperatures look to fall back toward
climo normal W high pressure building over the region. Highs
generally range from the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday through
Sunday with dewpoints dropping off slightly each day late Friday
into the weekend. Lows generally upper 50s to low 60s inland
and upper 60s to low 70s at the coast.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 630 am edt Tuesday...

latest msas has the frontal boundary stationary along the va nc
coast with high pressure to the north continuing the wedge the
ifr st over the piedmont. The wedge has eroded along the coast
cigs lifting to MVFRVFR. Radar showing sct shwrs lifting north
across the northern zones with shwrs from the offshore low apprchg
the outer banks. High res data continues to show the ifr MVFR
cigs along with periodic light rain and areas of fog continuing
through mid morning over the piedmont with MVFRVFR along the
coast.

Low pressure apprchs the area from the SE this afternoon then
recurves to the NE late tonight and wed. Expect the airmass to
become more tropical in nature ahead of its approach, basically
washing out the wedge this aftrn. Could see a brief subsidence
area ahead it the system for a few hrs this aftrn, but plenty
of moisture is left behind for sct-bkn convection to develop
across the ERN half of the fa. Greatest threat area be be along
the coast. Thus, expect MVFRVFR CIGS with sct shwrs after 18z.

Kept thunder out of any forecast for now given low confidence of
when and where any thunder will occur. Bests chcs are at orf ecg.

Pcpn tapers off after 00z tonight except for sct shwrs
continuing along the coast as the low passes by.

Outlook... More numerous and widespread convection expected late
wed and Wed night along and ahead of a cold front that is
progged to stall south of the area, resulting in another
ifr MVFR day along with periods of rain and fog Thursday.

Marine
As of 345 am edt Tuesday...

a weak frontal boundary is in the process of lifting north
across the southern half of the marine area early this morning.

Meanwhile, sfc high pressure is situated along the new england
coast, while low pressure resides about 250 miles sse of cape
hatteras. The aforementioned frontal boundary washes out over
the local area today, as high pressure retreats east into the
canadian maritimes. Additionally, low pressure will continue to
lift north off the carolina coast today. Will allow scas for the
bay and rivers to expire at 4am as the easterly surge wanes to
10-15 kt. Winds the remainder of today are expected to become se
by this afternoon at similar speeds. Seas 4-6 ft S and 5-9 ft n
this morning will become 4-6 ft all coastal waters this
afternoon.

The offshore low should continue to track northward tonight and
eventually push well offshore of the mid-atlantic coast during
Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west late. Nhc
will continue to monitor this feature for possible development.

Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical cyclone or not, it
does have the potential to bring some locally heavy rain to the
nc obx today and tonight. Winds veer from the SE this evening to
the ssw late tonight and Wed at 10-15kt in advance of the
approaching front. Winds then turn to the NW and N post-frontal
wed night and Thursday but remain sub-sca. We will have to deal
with seas remaining elevated through at least Wed night (4-6 ft)
and thus scas for the coastal waters have been extended in time.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 515 am edt Tuesday...

waters levels will remain elevated through at least the next
high tide cycle late this morning (atlantic side) or afternoon
(bay side) as tidal anomalies remain ~1.5 ft above normal. Will
continue a coastal flood advisory from the middle peninsula
over to accomack county on north, as well as an additional
coastal flood advisory for areas adjacent the upper james river
from jamestown to hopewell. Coastal flood statements will be in
place for the lower peninsula and southside hampton roads as
well as worcester county md for water levels approaching minor
flooding thresholds.

With winds lessening and becoming SE and then S later today into
Wednesday, expect the anomalies will lower a bit so that
locations across the lower bay and adjacent the atlantic ocean
will stay below minor flooding thresholds. However, water levels
across the middle upr bay, especially on the lower md eastern
shore and adjacent the potomac river, will likely remain
elevated into Wednesday and likely necessitate an extension of
coastal flooding headlines.

Equipment
Kdox is offline due to an equipment issue. Parts are on order
and technicians hope to have radar online after parts are
received. However, no return to service time is available at
this time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz081-082-084>086-089-090-093-099.

Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz075-077-078.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Thursday for anz650-652-
654.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajb mam
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jdm
tides coastal flooding... Jdm
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 17 mi38 min 73°F 72°F1023.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi38 min 74°F 75°F1024.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi44 min 76°F 72°F1024 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 23 mi38 min 72°F 1025.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi36 min SE 12 G 14 75°F 1023.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi36 min SSE 9.7 G 12 73°F 1025.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi38 min 73°F 72°F1024.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi116 min SE 1.9 62°F 1024 hPa62°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi44 min 72°F 73°F1025.5 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi44 min 70°F 70°F1024.3 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi38 minESE 47.00 miOvercast72°F71°F100%1025.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi34 minSE 88.00 miOvercast77°F72°F85%1024.2 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4NE5NE4NE6E5E5E7E6E8E8
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E8E7E7E6E5E5E3E4E4E3CalmSE4SE5
1 day agoNE3NE5NE3CalmE6NE3NE5NE4E4NE3NE4E3NE3NE3NE4NE3NE4NE3NE4E5NE4NE5NE5NE4
2 days ago------------------------------------NE4NE3CalmNE3NE4NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.