Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:21 AM EST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:52PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 336 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of the overnight..N winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain or a chance of sleet.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming w. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
ANZ500 336 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Strong canadian high pressure will build over the waters through Friday before a storm system develops along the coast and moves northward Saturday. High pressure will briefly return Sunday before another system moves in Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday and Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 220854
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
354 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
A strong cold front will push across the area after midnight.

Cold canadian high pressure builds in from the north thanksgiving
day into Friday, bringing well below normal temperatures but dry
conditions to the area. Low pressure impacts the region Saturday
bringing the next chance for rain.

Near term through tonight
As of 345 am est Thursday...

latest surface analysis reveals strong low pressure pulling
across the canadian maritimes this morning. The associated
surface low has pushed across labrador newfoundland, with the
attendant trailing arctic front dropping across the delmarva
toward the local area early this morning, as strong 1038+mb sfc
high pressure builds from ontario and the upper great lakes into
new england northeast CONUS today. Resultant strong cold dry
air advection behind the front will make for a blustery and cold
thanksgiving day across the region. Look for highs only in the
30s today over much of the area (some low 40s possible far
southern tier of counties from us-58 south into nc. Wind chills
will remain in the 20s and 30s through the day.

Record lows and record low maximum temperatures are included in
the climate section below. Temperatures at midnight to 1 am will
prevent any low maxs from being realized today, but expect temps
to remain quite chilly today in strong caa. Mainly clear today,
except for along coastal tidewater, where strong CAA advection
running south across the still- relatively warm bay waters will
result in a few bay streamer clouds per nam-dng and past few
successive runs of the hrrr.

A cold night ahead tonight. Winds should diminish this evening
as high builds to the north and gradient slackens. Expect
temperatures to then plummet into the 20s to low 30s after
sunset into the late evening hours. Have issued a freeze
warning for the small handful of counties that are still active
in the frost freeze program this late in the season, mainly for
coastal tidewater (incl. Orf va beach and NE nc along and east
of edenton), with only the coastal NRN obx not in the freeze
warning. Early morning lows in the upper teens to low 20s
inland... Upper 20s to mid 30s coastal NE nc.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 345 am est Thursday...

dry and a bit milder on Friday. Upper ridge will build over the
region Friday, but will quickly pivot offshore ahead of next
upper trough coming ashore across the ca coast this morning.

This should translate to a clear mostly sunny day Friday (some
increase in low mid clouds possible over the SE from the ocean
and the SW as warm advection aloft ensues). Still, despite
modest moderation, temps will remain chilly with highs only in
the 40s with the cold ridge still in place across the region and
limited mixing.

Previously referenced upper trough across the west coast slides
across the plains and mid-south Friday and Friday night, before
taking on a neg tilt and ejecting northeast across the northern
mid-atlantic into the northeast Saturday into Sat night.

Meanwhile, cool air wedge looks to develop as high pressure over
new england slides offshore, with cool dry air becoming pinned
against the eastern slopes of the central appalachians.

Gradually increasing isentropic lift will allow for light
precipitation to break out toward dawn Saturday morning in the
west, and shortly thereafter toward the coast. For the most
part, quick warming will prevent any significant p-type issues
for most even west of i-95, with temperatures mild enough for
no issues at all along the coast. However, as is typical with
these in- situ wedges, a brief period of sleet or even freezing
rain is possible well inland as the vertical column saturates.

Top-down powt tools indicate usual areas along west of highway
15 are most likely to experience this brief mixed pcpn, and as
with the previous event, minimal (if any) impacts are anticipated,
but will bear further watching. Rain will become moderate to
briefly heavy (especially inland) Saturday aftn, tapering to
light rain drizzle ending from west to east late Sat aftn night,
with the trailing cold front ending all pcpn late Sat night.

Highs Sat in the upper 40s to low 50s NW to mid to upper 60s se.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 345 am est Thursday...

local area will be in between systems Sunday, with brief
clearing expected across the area. Temps Sun Mon will be
slightly warmer than Thu Friday, and closer to normal with highs
in the upper 50s lower 60s and upper 30s to 40s. Next system
crosses the area on Monday, with another shot of cold air with
a cold front crossing the region later Mon Tuesday. This will
bring temperature back down below normal for the middle of next
week, but condition look to remain mostly dry with best
moisture forcing looking to remain off to our nw.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
As of 1245 am est Thursday...

vfr conditions across area terminals this morning will prevail
through the 06z TAF period and beyond. Some scattered mid level
clouds possible briefly later this morning W bay streamers
(mainly orf, but a chance at sby phf as well), as a strong
cold frontal passage drops across the terminals early this
morning. Winds shift to the N NW overnight then become gusty
at times (15-25 kts) with onset of diurnal mixing after 14-15z
through early evening.

Outlook...

dry WVFR conditions tonight through Friday night. Next
system brings rain and flight restrictions Sat morning through
sat evening. Clearing out withVFR conditions returning for
sun.

Marine
As of 330 am est Thursday...

strong CAA expected today as a cold front pushes south of the local
area this morning. N winds will average 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30
kt most waters thru the day. As such, will leave SCA headlines in
place for all waters save the upper james, york and rappahannock
rivers where winds will remain 15kt or less. Waves 2-4 ft; seas 3-6
ft. N to NE winds diminish this evening and overnight so that scas
for the lower james river, the bay and currituck sound can come down
by or before 10 pm. Seas will gradually subside as well this evening
and overnight, but will be slowest to do so south of CAPE charles.

Therefore, have extended scas for the southern coastal waters thru
Friday morning as seas remain around 5 ft.

Winds veer to easterly at 10-15 knots on Friday as weakening high
pressure to our north moves eastward into the atlantic. Seas around
5 ft may linger along the northern obx. For Saturday, the next storm
system is expected to impact the waters by later in the day.

Southeasterly winds will increase through the day to 15-25 knots by
late afternoon evening with building seas waves. Another round of
scas appear likely for a large portion of the local waters, with
seas being slow to subside into Sunday.

More unsettled marine conditions appear possible early next week.

Climate
* record low maximum temps for nov 22:
* ric... 36 (1929) (temp of 38 at 06z)
* orf... 39 (2008) (temp of 44 at 06z)
* sby... 36 (1989) (temp of 38 at 06z)
* ecg... 41 (1972) (temp of 44 at 06z)
* record low temperatures for nov 23:
* ric... 20 (2008)
* orf... 23 (2008)
* sby... 15 (2008)
* ecg... 19 (1937)

Equipment
Kakq radar is down due to a pedestal error. Return to service is
unknown at this time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
ncz015>017-031-032.

Va... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
vaz095-098.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz632-
634-650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz630-
631-633-638.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Friday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Lkb jao
aviation... Mam
marine... Jdm
hydrology...

climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 13 mi39 min NNE 8 G 8.9
NCDV2 17 mi39 min N 4.1 G 7 37°F 48°F1026.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi33 min N 12 G 14 38°F 51°F1027.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi39 min NNE 8 G 14 40°F 47°F1026.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 23 mi33 min N 17 G 27 38°F 1027.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi31 min N 12 G 14 39°F 1026.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi31 min 38°F 1028.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi33 min N 6 G 12 37°F 45°F1027.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi111 min N 5.1 37°F 1027 hPa23°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi39 min 36°F 47°F1027.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi33 min N 7 G 14 35°F 46°F1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last
24hr
W5
SW5
G9
SW9
G12
SW7
G11
W6
SW6
G9
W9
G12
NW8
G11
W8
N8
N8
N7
NW1
N18
N19
N18
N14
N13
N17
N17
N19
N17
N12
NE7
1 day
ago
W3
W4
NW4
NW5
NW9
NW9
NW7
NW12
NW19
N21
N19
N18
N16
N17
N15
N14
N14
N10
N5
N7
N7
N6
N5
W4
2 days
ago
SW3
SW5
SW3
W2
W2
SE3
SE5
SE3
S4
SE7
SE7
S4
S3
S3
SW10
SW7
SW7
SW7
SW3
SW4
SW6
G10
SW12
G15
SW8
NW9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi38 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F26°F75%1027.4 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD18 mi28 minNNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F24°F57%1026.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi89 minN 910.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F28°F70%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmS4S9SW12SW10SW10SW9SW8W6W6NW3CalmNW7NW74NW5NW7NW7
G14
W6W4W6NW4NW4
1 day agoCalmSW4Calm443N64NW7NW10
G20
NW8
G16
NW8NW8NW10
G15
NW8
G19
NW65N75CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS6SW4S6SW5SW6SW4S5S6S7SE3SE3S4S3S5S5SW5S6S4S5S5S4S5S8W6

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 12:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:00 AM EST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:57 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:13 AM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:09 PM EST     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:43 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:02 PM EST     0.31 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.50.70.60.40-0.4-0.7-1-1.1-1-0.8-0.6-0.20.10.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.