Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:20PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:25 PM EDT (19:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:18PMMoonset 1:08AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 133 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
This afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 133 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will pass through the waters today and a cold front will approach from the northwest tonight before passing through Wednesday. High pressure will build overhead Thursday through Friday before moving offshore during the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221902
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
302 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front across the eastern part of the local area will move
northeast tonight. A cold front will cross the region on
Wednesday, followed by a period of dry weather Thursday and
Friday under the influence of high pressure.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across the mountains of
northern va WV in association with the subtle short wave over the
ohio valley. Best flow aloft generally remains just north of the
area, but given the strong instability and marginal deep layer shear
profile of 25-30kt, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for
the northern part of the forecast area generally north of richmond.

The best chance for severe weather would likely be across the far
north (caroline louisa counties through the northern neck) due to
the better kinematics, however overall the best severe threat seems
to be north of the area. Main concern could be another period of
locally heavy rainfall with storms possibly training across the
north this evening. These storms should diminish relatively quickly
after sunset due to loss of daytime heating.

Meanwhile, storms have also developed across the far south in
association with a weak surface trough. These are not expected to be
severe, but again, given the high precipitable water values of
around 1.75 inches, heavy rain is expected.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

the surface front over the ohio valley will slowly move through the
area on Wednesday. Models suggest the front will take pretty much
the entire day to move through the region, and as a result much of
the southern half of the local area will remain south of the front
through the afternoon. This should allow for thunderstorms to once
again develop along the front in the afternoon. Winds aloft are only
marginal for severe storms in the afternoon with only about 20-25 kt
of shear during the afternoon. Could not rule out some line segments
with gusty winds but organized severe unlikely. After the front
passes through Wed evening, expect dry and seasonable weather thu
into Friday.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 320 pm edt Monday...

a strong surface ridge and northwest flow aloft with the upper
ridge axis to the west over the mississippi valley will provide
dry weather with moderate temperatures for the beginning of the
extended forecast. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s Friday and
the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows in the mid to
upper 60s Friday night. But the upper ridge will erode through
the holiday weekend with a gradual increase in moisture as it
appears that another area of low pressure will form in the
northeastern gulf of mexico by Sunday and push more tropical
moisture northward into the region. This could allow for more
showers and tropical downpours for Sunday and again on Monday.

The big model difference in the models is the handling of a
backdoor cold front between the 12z GFS and ECMWF with the gfs
pushing the front south through the area and the ECMWF keeping
the boundary well north of the area. In either case, the chance
for showers and some possibly heavy rainfall exist for the
second half of the holiday weekend. If the GFS is right with the
front Monday could be a damp cool rainy day while the ecmwf
would lead to more periodic showers with some breaks. At this
time of year, seems more likely the for the front to hang north
of the area. So have kept the temperatures up more in the low to
mid 80s for Sunday and Monday.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

mostlyVFR conditions expected this afternoon, although localized
ifr possible early this afternoon at ecg with thunderstorms.

Otherwise, another round of showers and thunderstorms possible at
ric and sby late this afternoon and this evening as the storms
currently on the mountains move eastward. Localized ifr possible
especially at ric, but timing is difficult. These should diminish
this evening due to loss of daytime heating.VFR expected overnight
into Wednesday, although additional storms possible across the far
south late Wed morning into Wed afternoon.

Outlook... The cold front moves through Wednesday Wed evening with
high pressure building in for Thu fri.VFR conditions expected
beyond Wednesday.

Marine
As of 715 am edt Tuesday...

latest obs reflect a light e-se flow across the waters this morning.

The latest surface analysis reveals weak frontal boundary oriented
just S SW of the waters at sunrise. Expect surface ridge to the
south across the carolinas will nudge front back north across
the waters later today, slowly lifting back north across the
local area from late morning through the afternoon, with surface
winds to veer around to the s-sw behind the boundary. Pressure
gradient tightens slightly, but remains weak and therefore
expect winds to remain no more than 10-15 kt. Seas remain ~2 to
3 feet on SE swell of ~6-8 seconds W waves 1 to 2 feet. Models
continue to develop some more scattered convection along the
returning front across lower bay and central southern waters
this afternoon, gradually diminishing into the evening.

Additional showers and storms are possible over northern waters
by late afternoon into the evening.

S-sw flow persists Tuesday night. Winds do nudge upward slightly
over southern waters, as pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead
of next front. However, conditions should remain predominately sub-
sca (~15kt lower bay and southern coastal waters). Weak surface cold
front crosses the region on Wednesday. However, given the typical
late-spring pattern in place, cool air push behind the front is
minimal, and little more than a post-frontal wind shift to the w-nw
is expected late Wednesday into Thursday morning. High pressure
builds into the area Thursday through Friday, leading to developing
lift n-ne flow and generally tranquil marine conditions into the
start of the holiday weekend.

Hydrology
As of 625 am edt Tuesday...

flood warning continues for the appomattox river basin. Mattoax
is now forecast to reach moderate flooding by late tonight early
Wednesday morning. Warning has been dropped at stony creek,
with river falling below flood stage earlier this morning.

Additional flood warnings continue for the chickahominy,
mattaponi rivers, as well as the pocomoke river in md. (allowed
south anna pamunkey river to expire). See flwakq or flsakq for
more details.

Climate
As of 145 am edt Tuesday...

* ric monthly rainfall total through 5 21 remains at 8.84"
(already ranks as 5th wettest may on record). (precipitation
records date back to 1880)
* sby monthly rainfall total through 5 21 remains at 8.52"
(already ranks as 3rd wettest may on record). (precipitation
records date back to 1906)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mrd
near term... Mrd
short term... Mrd
long term... Ess
aviation... Mrd
marine... Mam
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 13 mi38 min SW 6 G 6
NCDV2 17 mi38 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 75°F1015.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi38 min SSW 8.9 G 11 76°F 70°F1016.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi38 min WSW 8 G 8.9 78°F 74°F1016.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 23 mi38 min S 12 G 14 69°F 1017.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi26 min SE 9.7 G 12 72°F 72°F1 ft1015.7 hPa (-2.9)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi26 min SSE 9.7 G 12 70°F 1 ft1017.6 hPa (-2.0)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi38 min S 11 G 13 73°F 75°F1017.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi116 min SE 1.9 73°F 1018 hPa66°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi38 min 79°F 71°F1017.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi38 min SSE 5.1 G 6 75°F 66°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi49 minSW 710.00 miOvercast77°F68°F74%1017.3 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD18 mi33 minVar 46.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze79°F71°F77%1016.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi94 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F68°F67%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SE8SE9SE5SE5SE3CalmSE3SE4SE3E3SE3CalmSE4E3E4E5SE8SE7S7S7S7S64
1 day ago--------------------------------NE11
G16
NE11NE8NE7E8N3NE4SE8
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Colton's Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:55 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:31 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:05 PM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.70.40.20.40.71.21.71.92.121.71.30.80.50.20.10.40.91.31.722.11.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Tue -- 02:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:35 AM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:17 PM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:36 PM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.40.50.30-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.20.20.40.50.30.1-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.