Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:22PM Friday March 22, 2019 7:54 AM EDT (11:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:24PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 737 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 4 ft. Numerous showers with isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Diminishing to 25 kt late. Waves 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 4 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 737 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will strengthen as it moves toward the canadian maritimes through tonight. High pressure will return for the weekend before low pressure and its associated cold front impact the waters early next week. The gale warning may be need to be continued into Saturday morning, but otherwise a small craft advisory will likely be needed Saturday into Saturday night. Small craft advisories may also be needed Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221120
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
720 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
Potent surface low pressure will lift toward new england today,
as surface high pressure builds to the west. A cold front will
push across the area today. High pressure will rebuild over the
area for the weekend, with dry conditions expected to return to
the local area.

Near term through tonight
As of 320 am edt Friday...

early morning analysis reveals rapidly deepening ~992mb surface
low pressure sliding from the delaware bay toward coastal nj.

Aloft, the parent upper low is pushing offshore of the
northeast upper mid-atlantic coast this morning. To the south,
a compact area of low pressure is scooting offshore of the
carolina coast early this morning, with some very light showers
now over the gulf stream. Temperatures early this morning are
largely in the 30s, though a few readings around 50 low 50s are
noted over nc zones. Some spotty light rain lingers over md
counties for a few more hours, but otherwise partial clearing
that has ensued inland over SW zones will reach the coast by
mid-morning. Becoming mainly sunny all zones by mid to late
morning behind the departing system. However, do expect clouds
to move back in this afternoon as one last trailing shortwave
will follow fast flow aloft and dive e-se across the area late
today, with the attendant sfc front to cross the area this
afternoon into this evening. To no one's surprise... Cams are a
bit more bullish with areal coverage of showers this aftn, and
have therefore nudged rain chances upward slightly. Have gone
with high end chc pop (40-50%) over md va northern neck zones
for some scattered showers this afternoon, mainly north of ric
to sby, flanked by a slight chc mainly along and north of
us-460.

Other forecast issue for the day will be the wind. Strong high
pressure will build across the upper midwest great lakes today,
as deepening low pressure slides into new england. Resultant
w-nw winds have already become gusty this morning, and will tick
up a bit further late this morning and this afternoon. While
winds do come up just shy of wind advisory criteria, we will
continue to carry mention in the hwo. NW winds will gust to
25-35 mph inland, 30-40 mph near the coast. Highs today in the
mid to upper 50s, to low 60s central and southern zones.

Front slides offshore early tonight, with quick clearing this
evening. Remaining breezy early, though expect winds decouple
late especially inland. However, this should prevent temps from
falling toward the cooler end of the guidance envelope (met).

This will average out with lows in the 30s (though some upper
20s possible in typically cooler sheltered rural areas inland).

Short term Saturday through Monday
As of 350 am edt Friday...

sfc hi pres and dry wx settle over the local area for the
weekend (though breezy Sat along the coast). Highs Sat in the
l50s at the coast in va-md to the u50s around 60 f inland. Lows
sat night 30-35f inland to the l40s right along the coast in se
va- NE nc. Surface high slides offshore for Sunday, with return
flow bringing an even milder day, even after a chilly start.

Highs Sun in the m-u50s near the bay and on the ERN shore to the
u60s- around 70f elsewhere.

Sfc hi pres will shift off the SE CONUS coast Sun evening then
remain off the coast through mon. Meanwhile... Lo pres and its
associated cold front will be starting to take shape gather
moisture from the oh valley to the lower ms valley. Still mild
sun night-mon W a chc of shras returning by Mon afternoon (esp
n and W portions).

Sfc hi pres will shift farther off the SE CONUS coast sun
evening then remain off the coast through mon. Meanwhile,
southern stream system and its associated cold front will be
starting to take shape gather moisture from the oh valley to the
lower ms valley. Remaining mild Sun night- mon. Continue to
favor the quicker timing given flatting more progressive upper
flow. Therefore, will continue to mention a chc of shras
returning by Mon afternoon and Monday evening (esp N and w
portions). Remaining mild for Monday with highs in the 60s to
near 70.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
As of 225 pm edt Thursday...

the cold front will be pushing S through the area Mon evening
into Tue morning W a trailing area of lo pres tracking by to
the S as colder sfc hi pres builds SE out of canada. That low
tracks off the lower mid-atlantic coast Tue afternoon.

Maintained pops to 50-70% (for ra) across much of the fa mon
night into Tue morning then taper the pops down from NW to se
tue afternoon evening. Dry cool wx expected Tue night- wed
(though breezy windy... ESP at the coast). Milder and remaining
dry thu.

Lows Sun night in the m-u40s. Highs Mon from 60-65f near the
bay and on the ERN shore to the u60s-l70s inland. Lows Mon night
in the u30s N to 45-50f se. Highs Tue in the m-u40s... Except
l50s in far SE va-ne nc. Lows Tue night from the u20s-l30s N and
w to the 30s far se. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s E to the l-m50s
inland. Highs Thu from the 50s at the coast to l60s inland.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
As of 720 am edt Friday...

vfr conditions have returned over much of the area this morning,
as deepening area of low pressure will continue to track nne
from the DELMARVA to just offshore of the nj coast by sunrise
this morning. A short-lived regression back to MVFR possible at
ksby through ~14z, though the gradual clearing trend will
continue across area terminals. The wind will be W 10-15kt with
gusts to 20-25kt on the back- side of the low.

A potent upper trough will tracks across the region today with
a W wind of 15-20kt and gusts to 25-30kt. Bkn-ovc CIGS ~6-8kft
are expected during the aftn at ric sby, with sct- bkn clouds
~6-8kft at phf orf ecg. There is a minimal chc of showers,
mainly from ric-sby, and there could be some brief gs at sby,
but have held out of the TAF for now.

Outlook: high pressure builds into the region from the nw
late tonight into Saturday, and then slides offshore Sunday. A
nw wind will continue Saturday and then become SW Sunday. A
strong cold front approaches from the NW Monday, and crosses the
area Monday night, with high pressure building in from the n
Tuesday. There is a potential for degraded flight conditions
Monday night into early Tuesday.

Marine
As of 350 am edt Friday...

busy marine forecast this morning with strong westerly winds in the
wake of low pressure moving northward overnight. This low will
deepen further today over new england as high pressure begins to
build in from the north and west.

Winds across the northern half of the bay are quite strong this
morning with sustained winds 20-30 knots with gusts 35-40 knots.

Thus, have upgraded the previous gale watch over our northern bay
zone to a gale warning with this package. Elsewhere in the southern
bay winds are not quite as strong with 20-25 knots and gusts to 30
knots. Waves are running 3-5 feet in the bay with 5-9 foot seas
offshore. Small craft advisories remain in effect for all bay and
river zones through Saturday morning. Offshore, winds range from 15-
20 knots across the south to 20-30 knots over the northern waters. A
gale warning remains in effect for points north of CAPE charles
light. Seas are beginning to come down a bit with offshore flow but
will remain well into SCA territory with 5-7 feet across the north
and 4-6 feet prevalent over the southern waters.

Expect there will be a relative decrease in winds late this morning
into the afternoon hours as the gradient temporarily slackens.

However, a secondary shortwave trough aloft will pass just to our
north this evening with an accompanying area of cold air spilling
into the region. The CAA surge combined with the steep pressure
gradient will result in restrengthening of wnw winds this evening
and overnight, especially across the northern bay and offshore zones
where winds will increase to 25-30 knots with gust 35-40 knots.

Elsewhere, strong SCA conditions and headlines will continue for the
rivers, lower bay, currituck sound and offshore zones outside of the
gale warning area. Waves in the bay tonight will generally run 3-5
feet with seas offshore 5-7 feet.

Conditions begin to improve by Saturday afternoon with decreasing
winds and waves seas as high pressure builds closer to the area.

Marine conditions will be much improved Sunday with high pressure
overhead. The next system nears the area Monday with modest south
and southwesterly flow preceding it. A strong cold front is forecast
to cross the region late Monday into Tuesday with strong northerly
winds in its wake.

Hydrology
Flood warnings have been issued for the rivanna river at
palmyra, and for the meherrin river at lawrenceville. No
additional sites are forecast to reach flood stage at this time,
but substantial rises are still expected over mainstem rivers
during the next 24-36 hours.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for anz635-636-
638.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for anz637.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Saturday for anz631-632-
634-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Saturday for anz633.

Gale warning until 6 am edt Saturday for anz630.

Gale warning until 11 am edt Saturday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Rhr
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 13 mi36 min NW 30 G 36
NCDV2 17 mi42 min WNW 11 G 23 47°F 1002.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi36 min WNW 13 G 22 47°F 46°F1001.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi42 min NW 18 G 25 48°F 48°F1002.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 23 mi36 min NNW 17 G 26 46°F 1001.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi30 min NW 25 G 29 46°F 46°F1003.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi36 min WNW 25 G 29 47°F 49°F1001.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi144 min NW 9.9 45°F 1000 hPa39°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi42 min 47°F 47°F999.6 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi36 min NW 9.9 G 21 1002.7 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi71 minW 11 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F39°F81%1002 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD18 mi61 minW 17 G 2710.00 miA Few Clouds45°F39°F80%1001.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi62 minWNW 17 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F41°F83%1001.2 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E4E5NE7NE10E10E14
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1 day agoCalmNE3E7E8E10NE7NE7NE8NE6E7E5E6E7E7E7E6NE3NE6NE4NE7NE10E5NE7E7
2 days agoCalmN3N10N84--W8
G14
4NE9NE9NE6CalmCalmCalmE4E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Fri -- 12:40 AM EDT     0.66 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM EDT     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:07 PM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:20 PM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.50.1-0.3-0.7-0.9-1-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.50.40.2-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.