Sunday, April23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Royal, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:55PM Sunday April 23, 2017 3:52 PM EDT (19:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:49AMMoonset 3:46PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 210 Pm Edt Sun Apr 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through late Monday night...
This afternoon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Periods of rain.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Periods of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Periods of rain.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 210 Pm Edt Sun Apr 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will remain stalled south of the waters through Tuesday. Low pressure will move along the boundary today and slowly track toward the mid-atlantic coast through Tuesday. The low will finally move away from the area Wednesday and a cold front will approach the waters from the west late this week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for portions the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Royal, VA
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location: 38.22, -77.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231911
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
311 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure near the jersey shore will slide out to sea
tonight. Low pressure in georgia will very slowly move
eastward, reaching the south carolina coast on Monday, the north
carolina coast Tuesday, and moving east of mid-atlantic on
Wednesday. A cold front will reach the region late Thursday or
early Friday.

Near term /through Monday/
Latest surface analysis depicts low pressure over georgia, with
a stationary front extending eastward towards wilmington, nc and
a cold front extending south into the gulf of mexico. To the
north, high pressure is centered near the jersey shore and over
the southern great lakes, with another center in the central
plains. Aloft, we have a closed low over western tennessee, with
a shearing shortwave over southern new england and another ridge
over the southern plains.

This closed upper low will be moving at a snails pace over the
next few days, and its associated surface features will do
likewise. Overall, this is acting like a mid-winter storm,
except that its too warm for any snow. Other than the lack of
snow, the cool northeast wind, minor coastal flooding and long
period of precipitation also reflect its rather winter-like
nature.

Another element of similarity will be the excruciatingly slow
progress of the precipitation into our area. As the low pushes
east tonight, the confluence over our region will only very
slowly give way tonight and Monday, and the drier air in place,
fed into the region by the elongated high pressure ridge
(classic banana ridge often present on the northwest side of
winter storms) will continue to feed dry air into it. Guidance
has been slowing the advance of precip into the area through the
day, with latest estimate having an arrival in the dc metro
after midnight, and waiting until after dawn around baltimore.

This might be optimistically fast, given trends. However,
certainly by mid-late day Monday, rain will have overspread the
region. As the best forcing stays south, significant heavy rain
is generally not expected across the region, so no flood
watches have been issued, though if any were needed, it would be
in central va near the blue ridge where the upslope flow and
upper level forcing is maximized. Lows tonight will be in the
40s with highs generally in the 50s on Monday.

Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/
The slow moving low will only reach CAPE hatteras on Tuesday and
won't even make its closest approach to the region until Tuesday
night, though at that point it should be starting to weaken with
diminishing precip across our region. Bottom line is that we'll
continue to see periods of rain through Tuesday evening, which
should then diminish later Tuesday night. Northeast winds will
continue and temperatures will stay in the upper 40s to mid
50s. A period of heavier rain is possible late Monday night into
Tuesday as the low lifts northward and forcing increases, by
which time the dry air feeding into the system from the north
should be mostly eliminated, but again, no flood watches, as
uncertainty about placement and timing remains rather
significant.

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/
A cut off low moves from the mid-atlantic coast into the ne,
and away from the coast on Wednesday. Some isolated to scattered
showers possible, mainly to the eastern half of our CWA on
Wednesday. High pressure builds Wednesday night into Thursday
before a cold front approaches from the west. This front is
expected to stall over or near our CWA Friday and into Sunday
keeping warm and humid conditions over our region, allowing for
showers and maybe thunderstorms at times.

Temperatures will be above normal during this period, with highs
reaching the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s and 60s.

Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/
Vfr now, but deteriorating slowly tonight and Monday as low
pressure moves slowly toward the region with rain, a northeast
wind, and lowering CIGS and vis. Generally expect ifr by this
time on Monday, though it may take until then for it to happen
in the northern terminals. Ifr likely to continue at times
through Monday night and Tuesday as the low continues slowly
moving northeast up the coast. Some improvement likely to start
Tuesday night as the low starts heading into the atlantic.

Sub-vfr possible for the terminals early on Wednesday before
vfr conditions return on Wednesday night as low pressure moves
away.VFR conditions continue into Thursday, and sub-VFR
conditions possible Friday with a lingering front nearby.

Marine
Mostly below SCA right now, but expect widespread SCA by Monday
afternoon as a slow moving low moves its way up the eastern
seaboard. Right now not expecting gales, but could be close in
the middle bay. Winds may start diminishing by Tuesday night.

Isolated to scattered showers possible early on Wednesday
before dry conditions return Wednesday night as low pressure
moves away. Dry conditions continue into Thursday, and showers
and maybe thunderstorms possible on Friday with a lingering
front nearby. Wind gusts should remain below the small craft
threshold.

Tides/coastal flooding
A persistent onshore flow will continue over the waters through
Tuesday. Elevated water levels are expected during this time. The
onshore flow will strengthen a bit for Monday through Tuesday.

Minor flooding is possible near times of high tide. The flow
should gradually turn north Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
low moves away from the area. Water levels should decrease
during this time.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Monday to 6 am edt Tuesday for
anz530>532-535-536-538>542.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz534-543.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt
Tuesday for anz533-537.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Imr
aviation... Imr/rcm
marine... Imr/rcm
tides/coastal flooding... Rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 15 mi53 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 59°F 64°F1018.4 hPa (-1.8)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 40 mi53 min E 8.9 G 9.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 44 mi53 min SE 5.1 G 7 56°F 62°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi53 min E 6 G 7 55°F 63°F1018.8 hPa (-1.4)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi53 min SSE 4.1 G 8.9 59°F 66°F1018.8 hPa (-2.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 49 mi143 min NNE 1.9 59°F 1020 hPa43°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 49 mi53 min N 6 G 8.9 55°F 1019.9 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA10 mi58 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F45°F62%1019 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA15 mi58 minESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F45°F64%1020.3 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi57 minNNE 610.00 miA Few Clouds59°F46°F62%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from EZF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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NW4NW3NW5NW4NW4CalmCalmNW3N4NW4N4NW3N7N6NE5NE7NE3NE6NE7NE7NE6
1 day agoS3S6S5CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmN4CalmN3N4NE3CalmCalmNE5N5N7N6N7N8N9
G17
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2 days agoSW6SE8S8W18
G29
CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmSW6SW7SW9SW8Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:47 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:49 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:10 PM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.511.82.633.12.82.31.71.10.70.40.30.61.32.22.732.92.41.81.20.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Royal, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Port Royal
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:31 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:20 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:37 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.51.92.12.11.91.510.70.40.30.30.61.21.722.11.91.61.10.70.40.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.