Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Point, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:00PM Monday September 25, 2017 8:09 PM EDT (00:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:03AMMoonset 9:31PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 732 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am edt Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 732 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the waters through tonight, then it will weaken overhead Tuesday through Wednesday as hurricane maria drifts north to northeast off the north carolina coast. A cold front will pass through the area Thursday and a reinforcing cold front will pass through late Friday into Friday night. High pressure will likely return for the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday night through Wednesday night and gale force winds are possible Thursday. Refer to the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Point, MD
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location: 38.23, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 252304
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
704 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the mid atlantic through
Tuesday. Meanwhile, maria will continue to track north well off
the coast while gradually weakening. Maria lingers off the outer
banks Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore Thursday ahead
of an approaching cold front late in the week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Latest msas has high pres anchored over the eastern great lakes
and northeast conus. Meanwhile, hurricane maria is located 280
miles sse of hat moving north at 7 mph. Stratus noted right
along the coast due to the moist NE onshore flow. Latest radar
shows the first batch of shwrs well ahead of maria rotating
onshore across nc mainly along and south of the albemarle sound.

The low-level moisture along the coast this evening is expected
to spread inland with overcast conditions becoming prominent
most areas overnight. Latest high res data not all that bullish
in pushing much in the way of measurable pcpn inland tonight,
but will keep the low chc pops across the ERN half of the fa
tonight given the moistening onshore flow. May even be a bit of
drizzle later on as the lowest levels moisten up. Lows from the
mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the immediate coast.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of
due N as an upper low drops sewd across fl. Increasing moisture
and some outer banded features will result in 20-35% pops along
and E of i-95 Tuesday. QPF will be minimal for most areas. Highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky.

Becoming breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to
15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

Maria reaches about 160mi ese of CAPE hatteras by 00z
Wednesday, around 150mi E of CAPE hatteras by 12z Wednesday, and
then 140-180mi ene of CAPE hatteras by 00z Thursday as some
spread remains in the guidance. NHC has maria weakening to a
tropical storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will
result in minimal rainfall across SE va NE nc (and coastal md to
a lesser degree), generally 0.50" or less. There is still a
potential for modestly strong wind gusts south of CAPE charles
on the coastal waters, and along the immediate coast from orf va
beach to the currituck county beaches (including the currituck
sound). Tropical storm watches for these areas are currently in
effect which may be upgraded to warnings later this afternoon.

High seas and minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will
also occur along the coast. Will have pops of 20-40% east of
i-95 Wed (40-50% coastal NE nc Tue night), with slight chc pops
into the piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from around
norfolk va beach southward into coastal NE nc. The biggest
impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion
along near the coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast to the
low mid 80s inland, after morning lows in the 60s and low 70s.

By 12z thu, maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles
ene of CAPE hatteras, then pushing well offshore by late in the
day. Will carry lingering slight chc pops (~20%) along the
coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day. Highs from the upr 70 coast to low mid
80s inland.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted
upper trough swings across the great lakes and northeastern us
Friday and Saturday. This trough will serve to escort maria away
from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through
the region on Thursday night. This will allow drier and cooler air
to move back into the region. Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A
secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will
slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off
the coast on Saturday. But moisture will be limited with the front
and the best chance for any showers will be over the delmarva. By
Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across new
england and down the eastern seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This
will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the
low. To mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
MVFR to local ifr conditions are prominent along the immediate
coast and portions of SE va NE nc this afternoon. Elsewhere,VFR
conditions prevail with a clear mainly clear sky. MVFR cigs
will gradually push farther inland this evening, reaching kric
around 03z, and potentially falling to ifr overnight at all taf
sites. A NE wind of 10-15kt along the immediate coast this
afternoon tonight will increase to 15-20kt with gusts around 25
kt Tuesday morning.

Outlook: increasing moisture from maria will result in a 20-40%
chc for showers Tuesday Wednesday. Locally stronger wind
speeds gusts are expected at orf ecg Tuesday night Wednesday. A
cold front approaches from the NW Thursday Friday and pushes
maria farther offshore with conditions improving
Thursday Friday.

Marine
Given the track of maria and the broadening wind field, am
expecting that some tropical storm force conditions (especially
in gusts) will occur over the coastal waters south of the va nc
border starting as early as early Tuesday evening and continuing
into Wednesday as maria moves east. Still a little more
uncertainty between CAPE charles and the va nc border and as
such have opted to maintain the tropical storm watch in this
area. Regardless, it looks like tropical storm force winds would
be away from the coast. In the lower bay, winds will be
increasing Tuesday night into wed. Given that the track stays
far enough offshore, it does not look like sustained TS winds
will be in the bay, but there could be a few gusts to near 35 kt
for a period late Tuesday night into Wed morning. As such, will
maintain the SCA for this area, as well as areas north of cape
charles. Winds seas will start to improve Wednesday night as
maria rapidly moves east.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of hurricane maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures currently 0.5 to 1 ft today as northeast to
east winds begin to increase. Expect the departure to slowly
steadily increase as maria moves northward through Wednesday.

Expect departures of 2 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday across the
southern bay and areas south of CAPE henry along the ocean, with
1-1.5 ft departures northern bay into the northern coastal
waters. These values are similar to what we saw last week in
jose. However, the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft less this
week than last week in jose. This should keep any coastal
flooding confined to minor in the southern bay and areas during
the time of high tide.

As with jose, the main concern may end up being high surf and
potential coastal erosion. Will issue a high surf advisory for
the entire coastal waters starting tomorrow as the swell
associated with maria moves into the region. Am still thinking
that nearshore waves of 8-11 ft are possible starting Tuesday
and continuing into Wednesday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... High surf advisory from 4 am Tuesday to 7 pm edt Wednesday for
mdz025.

Nc... Tropical storm warning for ncz017-102.

Va... High surf advisory from 4 am Tuesday to 7 pm edt Wednesday for
vaz099.

High surf advisory from midnight tonight to 7 pm edt Wednesday
for vaz098-100.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for anz632-634-
638.

Tropical storm warning for anz633-658.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Wednesday for anz650-652-
654.

Tropical storm watch for anz656.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm mpr
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Ajz jdm
aviation... Ajz jdm
marine... Mrd
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 12 mi52 min SSE 5.1 G 6
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 16 mi52 min E 8.9 G 11 79°F 77°F1014.7 hPa
NCDV2 17 mi52 min N 1 G 1.9 79°F 81°F1014 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi52 min ESE 5.1 G 6 76°F 80°F1014.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi52 min E 11 G 13 79°F 1015.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi40 min E 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 1014.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 28 mi40 min E 9.7 G 12 80°F 1015.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi52 min ENE 9.9 G 11 77°F 80°F1015.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi160 min ENE 1.9 83°F 1015 hPa67°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi52 min 79°F 80°F1016.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi52 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 84°F 77°F1015.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi70 min E 4.1 G 4.1 81°F 77°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD11 mi13 minN 010.00 miFair73°F68°F83%1015.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi18 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1015 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3E4NE3--NE3N3E3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3NE3CalmCalmN3Calm--Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3CalmN6CalmN4NE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Colton's Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:34 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:17 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.50.91.31.71.81.91.71.30.80.40.30.30.50.91.41.822.121.61.20.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Mon -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:34 AM EDT     0.32 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:31 AM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:42 PM EDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.3-00.30.30.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.