Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
King George, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:16PM Thursday January 17, 2019 12:19 PM EST (17:19 UTC) Moonrise 1:59PMMoonset 3:30AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1056 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Rest of today..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of rain and snow this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Periods of snow or rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of snow or rain or sleet in the afternoon.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 1056 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will track through the great lakes later today and tonight. The cold front associated with this low will pass through the waters Friday. Another stronger low pressure system will affect the area over the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday and a gale warning may be needed Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King George, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 38.24, -77.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 klwx 171527
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1027 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore today and low pressure will
pass by to our west tonight. The cold front associated with the
low will move through the area Friday before high pressure
briefly builds overhead Friday night into early Saturday.

Stronger low pressure will track through the tennessee valley
Saturday, before passing through our area Saturday night into
Sunday. Arctic high pressure will build overhead later Sunday
through Monday before moving offshore Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
High pressure extends into the area from southern canada,
before sliding offshore this afternoon. An area of surface low
pressure is ejecting out of the central plains and will approach
the area this afternoon. Between moisture trapped under a
subsidence inversion and advancing clouds ahead of the
aforementioned low pressure system, skies are mostly cloudy to
cloudy, and it's doubtful much Sun will be seen today.

Temperatures won't rise much as a result, remaining in the 30s
for most locations.

The low center will track up the ohio valley this afternoon and into
the lower great lakes tonight. Increasing isentropic ascent may lead
to some light snow over western areas during the midday hours, but
the bulk of the precipitation will fall during the late afternoon
and evening. Latest guidance is still a bit of spread amongst
model guidance in terms of onset time, and thus uncertainty on
if the evening rush hour in the metro areas will be impacted.

However, there has been a slight trend towards a quicker onset.

So, have extended winter weather advisories into the dc
metropolitan area through tonight. Widespread totals of 1-2
inches are expected across the advisory area through tonight,
with the onset occurring right around the evening rush hour.

Amounts generally around an inch or less will be found for
southern portions of the CWA in this modest QPF event. Higher
totals will be found along the allegheny front from a
combination of synoptic and upslope snow, so a winter weather
advisory is also in effect for this area.

After dropping with sunset, temperatures in most areas will either
hold steady or rise a few degrees through the night as low level
flow becomes southeasterly. For the most part, the column will rise
above freezing from warm air advection aloft nearly coincident with
where surface temperatures will be above freezing. So while some
sleet pellets or drizzle freezing drizzle could occur as
precipitation tapers off, it will largely be a snow (with some rain
in the southeast) event. All precipitation east of the allegheny
front will likely have ended by daybreak.

Short term Friday through Friday night
The associated cold front will pass early Friday. In most areas,
this should lead to at least partial clearing and warmer
temperatures in the 40s to near 50. However, due to a weak gradient,
there are some indications that there might not be enough flow to
scour out low level moisture across north central maryland, which
would lead to cloudier and cooler conditions. Upslope snow showers
will continue through midday along the allegheny front with
additional minor accumulations. High pressure will extend into the
area Friday night with lows in the 20s to around 30.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Arctic high pressure well to our north will wedge down into the
mid-atlantic Saturday while low pressure intensifies as it moves
through the plains and into the tennessee valley. The low will
be in the southern stream of a split jet, which means that deep
moisture will get wrapped into this system. The low is most
likely track toward the appalachians Saturday night before
passing through our area late Saturday night into Sunday. The
low will move well off to our north and east later Sunday and
arctic high pressure will build overhead Sunday night through
Monday.

For Saturday through midday Sunday... The latest 00z guidance
continues to suggest that the low will track closer to the
appalachians as opposed to our south or along the coast. This
would put our area on the "warmer" side of the storm, which
means that there is a better chance for rain or a wintry mix
changing to rain for most areas instead of significant snow. The
00z ensemble fields also show this being the most likely
scenario. This scenario continues to make sense given the the
synoptic signals such as the subtropical ridge poking into the
southeastern CONUS ahead of this system, and the higher
pressures from the arctic high being over the plains instead of
new england ahead of the storm.

As of now, it appears that the most likely scenario for
Saturday into Sunday is for precipitation to develop later
Saturday morning and afternoon due to warm and moist air
overrunning the relatively colder air. A potent southerly low-
level jet will develop Saturday night while shortwave energy
passes through in association with the approaching low. This is
when the steadiest precipitation is expected. A soaking rain and
wintry mix are expected during this time. See next paragraph
for details on p-type. Bitterly cold but drier air will
gradually return Sunday as the low move off to the north and
east. Timing is a little uncertain as of now, but it does look
like steady precipitation should end across most areas by
midday.

As for p-type, going with the most likely scenario which tracks
the low close to the appalachians before developing into a
coastal low and moving well off to our north and east, this will
allow for plenty of warm air to overspread the area from south
to north. However, arctic high pressure will be entrenched to
our north so there will be low-level cold air in place.

Therefore, a wintry mix is most likely at the onset for most
locations. However, the warmer air should quickly take over for
locations near and east of the interstate 95 corridor limiting
any wintry precipitation. Farther north and west, cold air will
be deeper to start, and trapped in the valleys for much of the
event. Therefore, more significant snow and or ice is possible.

One thing to note is the ridge axis that extends down from the
high seems to poke down into the shenandoah valley, and low-
level colder air is usually tough to displace north and west of
this ridge axis. Did lean closer to the colder guidance
regarding low-level temperatures for this reason. Therefore, it
appears that the most likely chance for significant snow and or
ice would be near and west of interstate 81 to the allegheny
highlands. The latest forecast does indicate this, but
admittedly confidence is low because there is still some model
divergence on the exact track of the low.

Another thing to note is that the arctic high is quite strong
even to our north as well as our northwest. Therefore, a slight
southward track in the low cannot be ruled out at this time, and
if that does occur then more significant wintry precipitation
could make it closer to the i-95 corridor. There are still a few
ensemble members showing that this is a possibility, but again
the large majority of them point to the previous situation with
the low being a bit farther north.

For later Sunday and Monday: the low will move away from the
area later Sunday, and an arctic cold front associated with the
low will pass through the area. Windy and bitterly cold
conditions are expected behind the cold front for later Sunday
and Sunday night. The precipitation may even end as a brief
period of snow wintry mix. The rapid drop in temperatures also
means that any wet surfaces or standing water will rapidly
freeze. Gusty northwest winds and bitterly cold air will
continue Sunday night into Monday ahead of arctic high pressure.

Wind chills below zero are possible Sunday night into Monday,
and wind chills are likely to be well below zero in the
mountains during this time. Another possible hazard Sunday night
into Monday may be localized snow showers. Do think coverage
would be very limited, but given the cold air in place and
strong cold advection, a streamer or two may make it east of the
mountains.

Arctic high pressure will build overhead Monday night and
bitterly cold conditions will persist, but winds will diminish.

The high will move offshore Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for
a moderating trend.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
Ceilings around 4-5kft remain trapped under a subsidence
inversion and will likely linger through the early afternoon.

Ceilings will lower as a low pressure system approaches from the
west later this afternoon. Periods of light snow will begin
from west to east this afternoon early evening, with the
steadiest snow expected during the evening hours before tapering
off late tonight. Visibility and ceiling restrictions will
likely fall to MVFR and could be ifr at times. As the cold front
clears the area on Friday, conditions should gradually improve.

However, flow will be weak behind the front, so low level
moisture may have difficulty scouring out, especially over the
baltimore terminals. OtherwiseVFR conditions and light winds
are expected through Friday night as weak high pressure build
into the area.

Low pressure will track toward the appalachians Saturday before
passing through our area Saturday night into Sunday. Warm and
moist air will overrun cold air in place, causing a wintry mix
Saturday that will change to rain for most areas. The wintry mix
will be most prolonged at kmrb. Ifr conditions are likely to
develop later Saturday. Widespread rain is expected Saturday
night, but a wintry mix will likely hold on around kmrb. Ifr and
subifr conditions are expected.

Cigs vsbys will improve Sunday as the low moves away from the
area, but gusty northwest winds and bitterly cold conditions
are expected. The gusty winds will hang around through Monday
before diminishing Monday night.

Marine
Winds will gradually become easterly through this afternoon as
low pressure approaches the area. Winds will then turn
southeasterly tonight as the low tracks to our northwest, but
will remain below SCA criteria. Snow and rain are possible over
the waters, especially this evening. The associated cold front
will cross the waters early Friday, but the flow behind it is
weak, so no advisories are expected through Friday night as weak
high pressure builds in.

Low pressure will approach the waters Saturday before passing
through early Sunday and then moving well off to the northeast
late Sunday. High pressure will build over the waters early
next week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for the
waters later Saturday and Saturday night. A gale warning will
likely be needed Sunday and possibly into Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
An onshore flow will increase later Friday through Saturday
night as low pressure passes through the area. Minor tidal
flooding for sensitive areas near high tide is possible during
this time. A strong offshore flow will develop later Sunday and
Monday. Tidal blowout conditions are possible during this time.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 4 am est
Friday for dcz001.

Md... Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 4 am est
Friday for mdz005-006-011-013-014-504>508.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Friday for mdz003-004-503.

Winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Friday for mdz501.

Va... Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 4 am est
Friday for vaz052>054.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Friday for vaz501-502-505-506.

Winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Friday for vaz503.

Wv... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Friday for wvz051>053.

Winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Friday for wvz501-503-505.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Ads cjl
short term... Ads
long term... Bjl
aviation... Bjl ads cjl
marine... Bjl ads cjl
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi37 min ESE 8 G 9.9 37°F 40°F1027.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 35 mi37 min ESE 9.9 G 11
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 39 mi31 min ESE 9.9 G 11 36°F 40°F1028.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi37 min ESE 12 G 13 38°F 40°F1028 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 44 mi37 min SE 7 G 8 35°F 1029.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi109 min E 4.1 36°F 1029 hPa22°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 45 mi31 min ESE 2.9 G 6 37°F 38°F1028.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi49 min ESE 9.7 G 12 37°F 1029.9 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
W4
N3
N4
N4
SE1
S4
E2
--
NW1
NW3
NW4
N3
N4
N7
NE3
N3
N4
N2
NW1
NE2
SE2
E9
SE10
SE10
1 day
ago
NW8
NW7
NW13
NW9
NW5
NW5
NW1
--
NW1
--
SE2
--
SE1
S3
S6
S7
SW8
W7
W6
W7
NW7
NW8
N5
N5
2 days
ago
N9
N7
N7
N7
N9
NW10
NW11
NW10
N10
N9
N6
W7
NW8
NW7
N13
N11
N10
N12
N9
N10
N12
N12
N10
N8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA14 mi24 minE 410.00 miOvercast37°F29°F73%1027.4 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA18 mi24 minE 610.00 miOvercast37°F28°F70%1029.1 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi23 minSE 710.00 miOvercast37°F28°F70%1028.3 hPa

Wind History from EZF (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW6NW4W7W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW4NW3NW4N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Hopyard Landing, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Hopyard Landing
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:47 AM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:50 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:01 PM EST     2.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
11.41.71.71.51.10.70.2-0-0.100.411.622.121.61.10.70.30.1-0.10

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:54 AM EST     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:30 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:21 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:08 PM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:40 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
11.72.12.221.610.50.1-0.1-0.10.311.82.42.62.52.11.610.60.2-0-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.