Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fishing Creek, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:50PM Friday November 16, 2018 9:45 PM EST (02:45 UTC) Moonrise 1:40PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ534 Chesapeake Bay From Drum Point To Smith Point- 936 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft.
ANZ500 936 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and a weak cold front may pass through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishing Creek CDP, MD
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location: 38.27, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 170207
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
907 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the ohio valley over the
weekend. A cold front will approach from the great lakes early
next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Low pressure continues to pull away from nova scotia tonight
while high pressure builds toward the area from the tennessee
valley. A westerly flow between these systems will bring dry and
seasonably chilly conditions tonight. Min temps will range from
the 20s in the mountains to the upper 20s and lower 30s across
most other locations, to the mid 30s in downtown washington and
baltimore.

Will have to keep an eye out for locations along and west of the
allegheny front. An upslope flow along with low-level moisture
trapped underneath the subsidence inversion may bring a few
flurries and perhaps freezing drizzle. There have been reports
of freezing drizzle to our north, but as of 9 pm there have not
been any reports. As the subsidence inversion lowers overnight,
the threat for freezing drizzle should gradually diminish.

Therefore, a winter advisory for freezing drizzle has not been
issued since we are not categorically confident given the lower
subsidence inversion. However, will continue to mention in the
hazardous weather outlook.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night
The center of high pressure will move over the area on Saturday
and off to the east by Sunday morning. Weather will be dry but
clouds will begin increasing Saturday night ahead of the next
system. Temperatures will continue below normal with highs in
the 40s and low 50s and lows near or below freezing.

A weak front -- lacking forcing and moisture -- will slide into
the area Sunday and Sunday night. The daytime hours will likely
see increased clouds, with any chance of precipitation holding
off until Sunday night. The highest chance will be along the pa
border to the allegheny front. Lapse rates aren't very steep, so
most areas would be rain and only the coldest areas potentially
seeing some snowflakes. Regardless, any precipitation will be
very light. Highs will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s, with
clouds holding low temperatures above freezing in most areas.

Long term Monday through Friday
All in all, the long term period looks fairly quiet. On Monday, a
longwave trough will be centered over hudson bay, while an upper
level ridge will reside across the western conus. A weak mid-level
disturbance displaced well to the south of the longer wave trough
will approach the area on Monday, pushing a weak surface cold front
through our area. With limited moisture ahead of the front and the
best forcing for ascent displaced well to our north, little if any
precipitation is expected. The best chance for a few showers Monday
afternoon through Monday night will be in the typically favored
upslope regions to the west of the blue ridge.

Another shortwave disturbance embedded in northwesterly flow will
approach the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Once again,
little to no precipitation is expected, with upslope areas having
the highest chance for a (snow) shower or two. Both deterministic
and ensemble guidance are in good agreement that high pressure will
build overhead for Wednesday and Thursday, leading to mostly sunny
skies.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
MainlyVFR conditions are expected through Saturday. High-
resolution guidance is trying to develop areas of low clouds
tonight into Saturday, but am doubting this solution as model
soundings look too saturated and latest CIGS east of the
mountains are around 4-5kft. There may be a better chance for
lower clouds on Sunday as the next system approaches, and a few
light showers could near mrb by Sunday night.

Vfr conditions are expected through the long term period.

Marine
A small craft advisory is in effect for the maryland chesapeake
and lower tidal potomac river tonight. The SCA gradually tapers
off by midday Saturday, although it's quite possible some
segments could be cancelled early. A weak front approaches late
in the weekend, but overall the pressure gradient remains weak,
and additional scas are not expected this weekend.

Quiet weather conditions are expected over the waters through the
long term period, with sub-sca level winds in the forecast each
day.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 15th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.53 inches (2018)
5. 58.17 inches (1886)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 63.01 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
3. 62.35 inches (1889)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.15 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
4. 58.09 inches (1996)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz530-531-
538-539.

Small craft advisory until noon est Saturday for anz533-534-
541-543.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Saturday for anz532-537-
540.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Bjl ads
short term... Ads
long term... Kjp
aviation... Bjl ads kjp
marine... Bjl ads kjp
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 11 mi27 min N 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 48°F1018.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 12 mi27 min N 18 G 19 46°F 1018.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 12 mi27 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 53°F1017.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 17 mi25 min WNW 9.7 G 12 48°F 1016.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi33 min NW 8.9 G 9.9
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 22 mi25 min 46°F 1018.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 23 mi33 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 45°F 49°F1017.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi33 min 47°F 49°F1017.3 hPa
NCDV2 43 mi33 min NW 1 G 2.9 40°F 47°F1017.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 43 mi135 min Calm 38°F 1016 hPa35°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 45 mi45 min W 15 G 17 44°F 51°F1018.5 hPa (+2.8)32°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 49 mi25 min W 9.7 G 14 49°F 1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD9 mi1.9 hrsWSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds39°F36°F89%1016.3 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD14 mi52 minW 410.00 miFair47°F37°F69%1017 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD17 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair36°F35°F100%1017.9 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi65 minNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds41°F35°F81%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE13NE11NE12NE13NE10
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2 days agoNW8W7W7W8NW12NW11N13N14NW17NW13N13N14NW12N14NW12NW9N11N10N7N5N7NE9NE7NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Hooper Island Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Hooper Island Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:33 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:50 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:19 PM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.50.50.60.81.11.31.41.31.10.90.70.60.50.60.81.11.41.61.71.71.51.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:29 AM EST     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:29 AM EST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:13 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:04 PM EST     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:22 PM EST     0.41 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.20.10.30.40.40.30.20-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.10.30.40.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (21,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.