Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fredericksburg, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:17PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 3:58 AM EST (08:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 5:59PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 331 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 331 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will push southeast of the area today. Low pressure will develop and move off the north carolina coast tonight. High pressure will build south of the area Thursday through Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fredericksburg, VA
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location: 38.3, -77.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 170258
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
958 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build
into the area Wednesday, then shift south and east of the region
later this week into the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
Snowfall this evening has been relegated mainly along our
northern and western zones, slowly moving eastward across
western md and along the allegheny front. Reported observations
so far this evening have been ranging 1 to 3 inches across
northwestern md and the WV panhandle, with lesser amounts to the
adjacent areas to the south and east. Model guidance continues
to depict lower qpf, thus reduced snow amounts to the east of
these areas overnight and early Wednesday morning. As such, have
adjusted snow totals down, with a dusting to up to an inch
looking more likely in the metro areas.

This relative minima in QPF extends east into northern virginia and
central maryland including the baltimore dc metros due to a weakness
between better jet forcing to the north and strong PVA with the 500
mb low to the south. Given that a half inch to up to an inch is
possible into the morning commute Wednesday, an advisory
continues for the interstate 95 corridor metros. The advisory
also includes portions of central virginia closer to the upper
low better moisture where an inch to an inch and a half is
possible.

Despite favorable upper level dynamics, low level dry air intrusion
on NW flow begins by daybreak across much of the area, and this is
expected to eat away at the snow from north to south. Snow
will end by midnight across northwestern maryland, around
daybreak from the northern baltimore suburbs southwest into the
shenandoah valley and by mid-morning elsewhere, though some
light snow may linger across the central va piedmont until noon
as the upper low moves across. If this drier air moves in
quicker than currently forecast, snow will end sooner and totals
will be lower. On the flip side, if upper level dynamics
overcome low level dry air, snow totals could be a little
higher, especially considering the strength of the upper jet and
colder temperatures resulting in higher ratios toward the end
of the event. Overall, a relatively dry and powdery snow is
expected.

Temperatures are expected to then remain below freezing through
the day Wednesday as another arctic airmass spills into the
region on gusty northwest winds.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
Clearing is expected on brisk northwest winds through the night
Wednesday night. Low temperatures will fall into the teens for
most areas, single digits at the higher elevations. With a tight
pressure gradient and cold air advection in place, wind gusts
could approach wind advisory criteria over the higher elevations
Wednesday into Thursday. The combination of these strong winds
and cold temperatures could also result in dangerously low wind
chills approaching -10 f over the ridgetops. Winds should be
somewhat lighter at the lower elevations precluding both wind
advisory and significant wind chill threats in the lowlands,
though it will be far from mild (wind chills likely in the
single digits).

As the building high pushes to the south of the area on Thursday,
winds become more westerly and temperatures quickly begin to
moderate both as warmer air advects in aloft and westerly
downsloping component helps boost surface temperatures east of the
higher elevations. Highs a few degrees on either side of 40 are
expected. If winds go light Thursday night under clear skies, the
ambient airmass in place could allow temperatures to drop below the
20s currently forecast.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Surface high pressure will cover the southeastern states on Friday
as an upper level trough axis slowly moves offshore. Heights build
aloft as a broad upper level ridge becomes more established across
the central and eastern u.S. Temperatures on Friday continue to
moderate with dry weather expected.

The weekend will feature high pressure settled over the southeastern
and mid-atlantic states with a continued moderation in temperatures,
10 to 15 degrees above normal and continued dry weather.

By Monday, the area of low pressure that developed in the central
plains on Sunday will move into the western great lakes region early
Monday. The low level flow will bring an increase in moisture and
continued relatively mild temperatures on Monday. Best rain chance
(not snow) will be Monday into Monday night. The cold front
extending from the great lakes surface low will sweep across the
region on Tuesday. 85 hpa temperatures behind the cold front on
Tuesday finally go back below freezing, with some upslope snow
possible in the western mountains.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Light snow is expected across the terminals tonight, resulting
in MVFR ifr conditions. Expect light and variable winds for much
of the overnight period before starting to increase out of the
northwest towards daybreak as a cold front crosses the
terminals.

Nw flow behind the front should bring drying and a return toVFR
shortly after daybreak Wednesday. Winds could gust 25-30 kts into
Wednesday evening before gradually diminishing.

ExpectVFR conditions through the extended. Due to the cold water
temperatures on the potomac, there could be ifr or lifr issues at
both dca and mtn due to fog during the morning hours fri-sun.

Marine
Light and variable winds expected today as a cold front
approaches from the west. NW winds increase behind the front
Wednesday morning into SCA territory, and likely remain there
well into Wednesday night. Winds should be lighter Thursday, but
sca gusts are still possible.

With surface high pressure established, expect wind conditions
on the waters to be below SCA levels Friday-Sunday. With the
moderation in temperatures expected this weekend, some breakup
in ice will occur by late this weekend.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Winter weather advisory until 9 am est Wednesday for dcz001.

Md... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
mdz003-501-502.

Winter weather advisory until 9 am est Wednesday for mdz011-
013-014-016-503>506-508.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Wednesday for
mdz004>006-507.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
vaz503.

Winter weather advisory until 9 am est Wednesday for
vaz036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508.

Wv... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
wvz050>053-055-501>505.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 am Wednesday to midnight est
Wednesday night for anz530>533-535-536-538>542.

Small craft advisory from 3 am Wednesday to 6 am est Thursday
for anz534-537-543.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Bkf dhof
short term... Dhof
long term... Smz
aviation... Bkf smz dhof
marine... Bkf smz dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 22 mi41 min NNW 5.1 G 8.9 33°F 32°F1025.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 46 mi41 min NW 7 G 8.9 32°F 34°F1027.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 50 mi41 min N 8.9 G 9.9
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 51 mi149 min N 1 30°F 1027 hPa29°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA2 mi64 minN 710.00 miFair33°F30°F89%1026.7 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA7 mi64 minN 75.00 miLight Snow32°F31°F99%1028.1 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA24 mi84 minN 35.00 miLight Snow32°F26°F80%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from EZF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E4E3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N5N7N8
1 day agoNW3N3N5NW5NW4N5CalmNW3NW4N4CalmNE6E5E3E3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN7N8
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N7NE7N5N8N7N3N5N4N4N4N4CalmN3N3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:12 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:33 AM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:06 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:58 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:41 PM EST     2.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.1-0.100.61.422.42.421.50.90.40-0.100.71.62.32.62.72.41.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:14 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:57 AM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:20 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:58 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:23 PM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-000.30.50.80.910.90.70.50.40.1-0.1-00.30.60.91.11.31.31.10.80.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.