Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:20PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:19 PM EDT (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 2:16AMMoonset 4:59PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 181753
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
153 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
Cold front today. Upper trough Saturday. High pressure through
Tuesday. Strong cold front mid week.

Near term through tonight
As of 910 am Friday... Updated pop and sky cover based on current
radar, satellite and mesomodel trends. Decided to clear clouds
out faster from west to east this afternoon with lingering
clouds and showers in the mountains into this evening.

As of 633 am Friday...

no significant changes.

As of 255 am Friday...

even though we have a significant upper trough crossing the ohio
valley with a cold front today, timing of the front along with
the strength and axis of QPF with this system is not that easy.

First, this is still summer, so trying to time the cold front
with the upper trough will be difficult, and models do have a
good piece of its main energy lifting up across ohio and
pennsylvania. Will adjust frontal movement a bit faster than
the models today, aided by mixing with stronger west winds
aloft with diurnal heating.

Given this scenario, timing would have the front along the ohio
river around noon, central WV around 3 pm, and exiting the
mountains early this evening. Convergence along the front is not
impressive to be the main focus of activity. On the other hand,
it looks like a well defined upper disturbance within this
upper trough ahead of the front over south central ky will be
the main focus for convection today, as it lifts northeast
across our area. With pw's above 2 inches and the atmosphere
conditionally unstable, it wont take much to fire off
convection. Indeed, models do paint significant convection,
especially northwest two thirds of the area, with this upper
feature. Some of the storms will have locally heavy rain, but no
significant water problems or severe thunderstorms are expected
today. So, we have pops starting out high along the ohio river
early this morning, then shifting east northeast across the area
today. Note that much of southeast ohio will escape convection
with this feature, having already been affected by another
disturbance last evening.

Most of the convection will be over eastern WV by mid
afternoon, but will still carry a small pop until the front
passes. In any case, convection will exit the mountains this
evening as drier high pressure and clearing skies move in for
tonight. So we may have to evaluate for a good river valley fog
later Friday night. Temperatures will be tempered today with the
clouds and showers, but will be humid ahead of the front.

Cooler tonight with the clearing and drier air.

Short term Saturday through Monday night
As of 240 am Friday...

upper level trough brings another batch of showers storms
through primarily the northern half of the forecast area
Saturday before the long wave pattern GOES back to ridge
dominant over the southeastern us. This ridge will bring higher
heights over the region, with temperatures back into the upper
80s to lower 90s for the lowlands through the weekend and into
the beginning of next week. Expecting mainly dry weather after
Saturday

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
As of 240 am Friday...

long term operational models showing some consistency in the
development of a closed low over the canadian prairies that will
drop into the great lakes for the middle of next week.

Associated cold front will bring the ohio valley and central
appalachians back into a cooler and drier airmass in a more
amplified ridge trough pattern from west to east across the
conus. CPC outlook is supportive of the operational model
solutions as of this point with chances for below normal temps
embedded in the northeast quadrant of the lower 48.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
As of 150 pm Friday...

cold front is almost through the region and will cross the
mountains later this afternoon. Still a chance for brief ifr
conditions in showers at bkw and ekn, but stations to the west
should continue to improve with the exiting. High pressure
builds in tonight with clearing skies. However, the moist ground
and mostly clear skies setting in tonight will likely produce
thick river valley fog from about midnight through Saturday
morning. Conditions will improve tomorrow withVFR conditions
expected after the fog lifts at around 13 or 14z.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Saturday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing and coverage of showers at bkw and
ekn this afternoon may vary and development of fog tonight may
differ than currently forecast.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
edt 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency l h h h h h h h h h h l
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
ekn consistency h m h h h h h h h h m l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
after 18z Saturday...

dense river valley fog possible each morning.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Jmv 26
near term... Jmv mpk
short term... 26
long term... 26
aviation... Mpk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi29 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F70°F59%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9S9
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SW8S7S6SW4SW5S3S4W5S3CalmCalmCalmSW7SW4SW5S5SW5W4W9W56
1 day agoCalmCalmSE3SW6S6S5SW4CalmE3CalmE4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6S5S6S9SW6
2 days agoCalmCalmSW4NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW334

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.