Monday, March25, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:47PM Monday March 25, 2019 1:25 AM EDT (05:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:35AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 242355
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
755 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019

A low pressure system brings showers tonight and Monday. High
pressure and mostly dry weather and a warming trend for the
remainder of the week.

Near term through Monday
As of 755 pm Sunday...

holding off on any adjustments on pops this evening given that
the afternoon forecast package still matches up fairly well with
current radar trends. However, I will be keeping an eye on radar
and incoming hi-res model updates to see if any adjustments
will become necessary.

As of 400 pm Sunday...

did a fresh update on temperatures, dew points, and humidities
for this afternoon, bumping up high temps by a degree in
correspondence with local observations.

As of 120 pm Sunday...

dry air remains entrenched near the surface. Had lowered dew
points earlier today, but it wasn't near enough and have taken
another 5+ degrees off the dew points through much of the
afternoon. Can see dew points beginning to increase to the
west, so the trend across the forecast area should turn around
mid to late afternoon.

Keep the forecast mainly dry until around sunset, then bring
pops in from the west as a warm front slides in. Have this area
of showers spreading across the northern forecast area before
midnight. Attention then turns to a surface low moving through
the lower ohio river valley overnight, and then crossing the
central appalachians on Monday. Have an area of 80-90 pops
crossing with the low. Maintained some isolated thunder mention
across the far southern forecast area Monday afternoon where
some better instability develops. Showers will then be on the
decrease from west to east from late afternoon into the evening
as the surface low pulls away.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday
As of 230 pm Sunday...

low pressure exits to the east Monday night with canadian high
pressure building in from the north. Tuesday will be dry, but
cooler. Low rh values with ample sunshine will dry things out
from Monday's rain. Due to the wet conditions, fire danger
should not become an issue until later in the week. Good
radiational cooling and a cold night expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday. However, warm march sunshine will recover
temperatures on Wednesday with highs into the 60s by Wednesday
afternoon. Again, models tend to overestimate dew point temps in
this pattern, so rh values will likely dip into the 20 percent
range by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light with high
pressure centered overhead, but fire danger may still be
elevated as fuels dry out.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 235 pm Sunday...

strong surface high pressure will remain in control through the
end of the week. Temperatures will continue to increase as well,
with above average high temperatures expected on Thursday into
the weekend. Low rh values Thursday afternoon and a slight
increase in surface winds will keep the fire danger elevated,
but other than that the weather should be quiet. Models are in
good agreement keeping things dry until the weekend. Then they
diverge on the arrival of the next system on day 7 of the
forecast. For this time period, went with a blend of ensemble
and deterministic guidance, which brings in some low chance pop
from the west by Friday evening.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
As of 750 pm Sunday...

vfr continues to hold strong across all TAF sites this evening,
with its demise on its way in the form of a low pressure system
currently crossing through the western ohio valley. Clouds will
progressively lower and thicken during the overnight hours,
dropping down into MVFR for pkb, ckb, and ekn early Monday as
the first batch of showers meanders along the northern portions
of the forecast region. Dry air still dominates at the surface
this evening, so it will take awhile for enough moisture to
saturate the atmosphere and allow precip to reach the ground.

Therefore, decided to withhold from any visibility reductions
for the northeast mountain terminals early on in the TAF period
due to the low confidence that initial showers would be capable
of achieving lower vsbys.

Once the low and coinciding frontal boundary crosses through
the area Monday morning, flight categories lower further down
into ifr for most, if not all, terminals with reductions in
vsbys and or CIGS due to more healthier and widespread showers.

Flight conditions barely improve by the conclusion of this taf
period, but drier air will be on the horizon, moving in from the
northwest by Tuesday morning in response to high pressure
building down from canada.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Tuesday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of category changes may vary
overnight and Monday.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Mon 03 25 19
utc 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
edt 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h m l m h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h m m l h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h m h h h
after 00z Tuesday...

periods of ifr possible in lingering stratus late Monday night.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Mz mpk
near term... Mz mek
short term... Mpk
long term... Mpk
aviation... Mek

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi35 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F28°F36%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmE3CalmE5CalmE3CalmCalmSE33SW7SW6W9SW7W9W7
1 day agoW3NW4NW6W4NW5NW3CalmN4NW3NW4NW56SE3N5NE73E4E3E4E4SE3CalmCalmE3
2 days agoW8W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.