Friday, May24, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:43PM Friday May 24, 2019 7:02 PM EDT (23:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:06AMMoonset 10:11AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 241928
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
328 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

Front returns north as warm front tonight. Another cold front
will remain near the area Saturday night through Monday, before
returning north as a warm front.

Near term through Saturday
As of 225 pm Friday...

front situated across tristate area into the coal fields of wv,
as depicted by rap low level theta E gradient, visible
satellite, and radar echoes. In fact this boundary is becoming
more defined as visible satellite showing a sharp demarcation
of CU field. This will continue to serve as the primary focus
for convection this afternoon, lingering perhaps into this
evening. With radar showing a bit more coverage already and
after interrogating latest cams along with SREF probs, elected
to increase pops a bit along the boundary this afternoon which
will slowly be moving northward as a warm front. MLCAPE is
progged to increase to near 2000 j kg in the vicinity of the
boundary this afternoon. Coverage of convection should be held
in check, given marginal deep layer shear and mid level lapse
rates. Overall lack of deep moisture and a capping inversion
should also be a limiting factor, helping to keep much of the
action near the front where better moisture will reside.

Spc has highlighted parts of SE oh and southern half of WV in a
marginal risk for severe. This seems warranted with rap dcape
values and soundings supportive of a damaging wind threat. While
the threat for large hail is not zero, a repeat of yesterday is
not expected with poor lapse rates and less in the way of shear

Activity should diminish greatly with sunset as boundary layer
cooling allows the mid level cap to become established once
again. However, an low pop was maintained with the boundary as
it moves into the northern CWA tonight. Some river valley fog is
expected to develop with extent dependent on cloud cover. Models
indicate a wave traversing around the peripheral of the ridge
will allow showers and perhaps some morning storms in the
vicinity of the oh river Saturday morning, shifting eastward as
the day progresses. I've increased pops for tomorrow, but not
quite as high as some models are suggesting. Highs tomorrow will
be dependent on convection but we should still manage at least
low 80s.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
As of 300 pm Friday...

showers and storms wind down for the most part overnight, with
scattered activity mainly along the aforementioned boundary
across the north and in the mountains. By early Sunday, a
northern stream trough skirts to the north of the great lakes,
tightening the mass gradient for us. As a result, warm, moist
flow converges again along a weak cold front limping down into
the ohio valley, providing the focus for more shower storm
chances on Sunday. Thus a ring-of-fire type patter persists,
with ripples of energy in the mean ridge generating waves of
convection along the boundary through Sunday night.

Storm training could lead to flooding Sunday and Sunday night.

Something to keep a close eye on is where rain falls Friday and
Saturday, and if vulnerable locations arise before steadier
rain arrives Sunday. In general the flood threat will increase
with each round of moderate to heavy rain Sunday. There is
damaging wind potential, but details this far out are a bit
sketchy at this time.

Modest NW flow behind the wave brings in slightly cooler, drier
air Monday for brief break - although a few storms are still
possible especially in the mountains as the remnant boundary
remains draped across the area.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 315 pm Friday...

Monday night into early Tuesday, the ridge axis across the south
shifts east allowing for warm advection to return with gusto.

Warm frontal showers and storms are possible, but current timing
overnight would rely on frontal forcing to realize elevated
instability, so have stuck with chance slight chance pops.

Tuesday and Wednesday, 850mb temps soar to near 20 c translating
to surface temperatures reaching into the low-90's across the
lowlands and 80's across most of the mountains (even snowshoe at
4848' reaches the mid-70's). Models continue to trend dry for
the bulk of the area for this time period with the exception of
elevated-heat-source type showers and storms across the
mountains. Should the warm front move through later into the
daytime hours of Tuesday, more showers and storms are possible.

Late in the week, models agree on a pattern shift with greater chances
for troughing across the earn CONUS as opposed to persistent ridging
that has plagued the region for several days. This will likely
lead to rounds of storms as cold fronts and surface systems
associated with troughs move across the area. The consolation
prize with these would be more seasonable, reasonable may
temperatures back down into the 60's (highest ridges) to near 80
(western lowlands).

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
As of 235 pm Friday...

shra tsra with quasi stationary frontal boundary will affect
hts crw bkw during the first couple of hours of the TAF period.

Brief ifr vsby in convection is possible. While a brief MVFR
tempo was mentioned in hts crw taf, amendments will be issued to
handle ifr should it become apparent a terminal will be

This boundary will move north as a warm front tonight. Precip
chances will diminish substantially with sunset, but an isolated
threat will remain for northern terminals. Otherwise, some
patchy dense valley fog is expected, with crw ekn bkw having the
highest probs for ifr fog. Some MVFR stratocu may develop in the
predawn but confidence is not high at this time. Shra tsra may
develop in the vicinity of the oh river in the 12-15z time frame
before shifting eastward. Some prob30 groups were coded up for
hts pkb
forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Saturday...

forecast confidence: medium
alternate scenarios: convection may affect hts crw bkw with
brief ifr vsby this afternoon.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
edt 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h m h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 18z Saturday...

brief ifr possible in afternoon and evening storms Saturday and

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... 30 mc
near term... 30
short term... Mc
long term... Mc
aviation... 30

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi72 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds85°F73°F68%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW6SW4SW4W5CalmSW4CalmSW5SW5CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3SW5SW55W7E6Calm33W4
1 day agoS3S3CalmSW3S3SW3SW5S6S6S6S6S8S7S8SW7
2 days agoNE7NE6E7E5E4NE5E5E4E3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE4S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.