Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:40PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:47 PM EST (17:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:26PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 krlx 211521
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
1021 am est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure settles in today, and lingers tonight.

Another rain to snow system Wednesday into Thursday. Cold
fronts reinforce colder air through next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1010 am Monday...

the current forecast is still on track. Only nudged
temperatures and winds slightly to match current obs and trends.

Also, let the wind chill advisory expire as the threat of
dangerous windchill no longer exists.

As of 630 am Monday...

tweaked temps based on current obs and trends. Also cancelled
the remaining winter weather advisory a touch early. Snow
showers have mostly tapered off, and any remaining flurries will
not bring any additional impact.

As of 1250 am Monday...

upslope clouds and snow will linger along the western slopes
through daybreak, hanging on the longest across the northern
mountain ridges as some cold air advection continues with
another weak shortwave trough crossing 09z-12z. Extended the
winter weather advisory through 7 am. Winds remain breezy as
well, resulting in very cold wind chill values. Opted to extend
the wind chill warning through 1 pm, at which point we drop
below warning criteria. A surface high is nosing in at this
time... Depending just how quickly wind speeds drop off, could
still have a period of wind chill advisory values across the
higher ridges of the northern mountains. No plans for an
advisory to follow the warning right now, but that could be a
possible solution for the taper down period this afternoon into
tonight.

The sky should be mostly clear by sunset tonight, allowing for
very efficient radiational cooling. So expecting temperatures to
drop like a rock -- especially in areas with snow still on the
ground. A bit of a wrench in things tonight will be a mid to
high cloud deck that models show crossing overnight. This could
slow or stop the temperature drop after midnight, so there is
some bust potential to lows tonight. Opted to stay on the cold
side of the guidance envelope -- especially across the north
where the clouds will arrive last. Also starting to get warm air
advection at 850mb after midnight, so went with a non-diurnal
trend for the mountain ridges through the pre-dawn.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday night
As of 420 am Monday...

high pressure exits Tuesday as an upper level ridge crosses. The
next system approaches mid week, in the form of a surface low
that tracks north of the area on Wednesday, followed by a wave
that forms along its cold front, and then tracks up along the
front Wednesday night into Thursday, just after the front
crosses the forecast area early Wednesday night.

Precipitation ahead of the cold front arrives overnight Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. There could be freezing rain at
the onset on mainly the eastern slopes of the northern mountains
of wv, and pockets of freezing rain across the northern
lowlands. With the high exiting to the east, and southerly flow
ahead of the cold front, any remaining cold air should leave
about as fast as the isobars can take it away. Any freezing
rain across the northern lowlands should be brief. Freezing rain
in the mountains may be a bit more tenacious, but amounts even
there should only be on the order of a few hundredths of an
inch.

Models suggest an inch to an inch and a half of liquid
equivalent precipitation with this system, with that falling as
liquid a bit less, but still potentially just over an inch over
much of the area. Some models place the highest amounts over
the middle ohio valley, while others place the spotlight more
squarely over wv. Either way, grounds will either be frozen or
saturated, so most if not all liquid will again be runoff. Thus,
will highlight the potential for minor flooding once again in
the hwo.

Models have trended farther east with the wave riding up along
the front overnight Wednesday night into Thursday, with
snowfall totals of an inch or two during this time. Temperatures
drop a little below freezing Thursday morning, but then recover
only a little, hovering around freezing during the day
Thursday. So, the wintry impact of this system does not look
quite as high as on Sunday morning, although it will be a week
day commute this time.

A cold front will approach close on the heels of the mid week
system, driven by a strong, digging northern stream short wave
trough. The chance for snow showers increases ahead of it
overnight Thursday night.

Central guidance temperatures looked reasonable, save for minor
adjustments right at dawn Tuesday and Thursday mornings.

Temperatures will be above normal Tuesday into Wednesday night,
ahead of the approaching mid week cold front, and then back
down below normal behind it Thursday and Thursday night.

Long term Friday through Sunday
As of 420 am Monday...

this period features an amplification of long wave troughing
over central and eastern portions of the u.S., with ridging
along the west coast. To be sure, however, a line from the
previous version of this section reads, the weekend forecast is
low-confidence with models bouncing between varying severities
of anomalously low temperatures. This remains very apropos.

However, models are trending less extreme with the cold. In
terms of progged h85 temperatures, the possibilities range from
12c to -22c Friday into Saturday, and then similar for the next
shot Sunday night, although there was still one hold out there
with -30c.

The timing of the cold fronts, and prospects for waves forming
on them as they go by, also varies. Current timing is for
frontal passages Friday morning and again Saturday night, with
snow showers with and behind the fronts. Not withstanding the
severity of the cold, the pattern is cold enough for snow
regardless of the tracks of the systems.

Central guidance reflects the below normal and fluctuating
temperatures this period, as low as 20 degrees below normal on
highs Friday, and ten degrees below normal on lows Saturday and
Monday mornings.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
As of 630 am Monday...

still have some lingering MVFR in stratus and snow showers in
the northern mountains. Expect these to gradually taper off
over the next few hours.

Otherwise, expectVFR today. Will have some mid to high clouds
moving in tonight, but will remainVFR.

Winds will be out of the NW through most of the day, gradually
turning to more easterly tonight as a surface high drifts by.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Tuesday...

forecast confidence: high
alternate scenarios: timing of ceiling improvements in the
mountainous counties may vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
est 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency m h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h m l m m m m h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency m m h h h h h h h h h h
after 12z Tuesday...

ifr conditions possible in rain Wednesday into Wednesday night,
and then in snow overnight Wednesday night into Thursday.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Wind chill warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for wvz523-
526.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Trm mz
near term... Mz jz
short term... Trm
long term... Trm
aviation... Mz


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi57 minNNW 410.00 miFair14°F-2°F47%1037.1 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrNW12
G18
NW10
G15
N12
G22
NW11NW12
G18
NW9NW10NW9NW11
G17
NW8NW8NW4NW4NW4NW5NW5W3NW3--CalmNE3N4NW5NW4
1 day agoE5N3S4SE5SE65S7SE8
G15
SE5S7S4NW13
G21
NW12
G23
NW11
G19
NW11
G23
NW8
G18
NW13
G18
NW10
G20
NW8
G15
NW12
G20
NW13
G21
NW8
G18
NW11
G18
NW12
G19
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3NE5NE6NE6E6NE5NE5E7E8E5E6E6NE5NE4NE7E6E6E5E6E6E6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.