Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:18PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:56 PM EST (22:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 152003
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
303 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Winter weather system continues affecting the area through tonight.

High pressure builds to begin the weekend. A series of weak fronts
crosses Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure midweek.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 240 pm Thursday...

winter low pressure will cross the area from west to east
tonight. Radar imagery and high resolution model data suggest a
lull in pcpn, associated with a dry slot, spreading from south
to north across extreme southwest va, and the ky and WV border this
evening. Although pcpn coverage and intensity is expected to
decrease through 00z Friday, additional pcpn, associated with
wrapped around moisture from the low center, is expected over
portions of southeast oh, spreading west over wv, and lingering
over the northeast mountains through early Friday morning.

Temperatures will drop a degree or two overnight. Models
consensus suggest CAA at h850, with the minus 5c line well south
of our CWA by 06z Friday. These temperatures will likely switch
p-type to all snow over the central and northeast mountains,
with lesser amounts over portions of southeast oh and lowlands
of WV through 12z Friday.

As the cold air arrives, areas of pcpn will diminish in coverage
and begin exiting the central and northeast mountains towards
mid morning Friday. Upslope snow accumulations will range from
from 1 to 4 inches over the northeast mountains, with locally
heavier amounts over the highest peaks.

Winter storm warning continues in effect for the eastern slopes
of WV due to pockets of fzra through 00z Friday.

Went with nbm temperatures through the period. Expect sub
freezing temperatures area wide overnight. This will tend to
freeze any runoff water over roads.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday night
As of 235 pm Thursday...

lingering low level moisture beneath a stout inversion may keep
stratus around for much of Friday, especially across northern
counties. Just enough lift in the morning for some light precip
across the northern mountains. Model soundings suggest crystal
growth conundrums amid the aforementioned subsidence inversion. I
will leave it as snow for now, but freezing drizzle may have to be
eventually added.

Dry air will overwhelm much of the column Friday night, though the
lingering inversion should allow for fog and or stratus to redevelop
across much of the region.

Any fog stratus should dissipate later Saturday morning, with
sunshine returning for what should be splendid afternoon.

Temperatures will still run a bit below average, however.

After a chilly night, mid and high level clouds will stream in ahead
of the next S W trof. Lift will increase as the trof and cold front
approaches Sunday night, with a frontogenetically forces band of
light precip developing across the area. Some of this may take the
form of a mix with wet snow across northern counties, but should not
amount to much. A coating is possible across the northern mountains,
however.

This system pushes out Monday with sunshine returning. Temperatures
to remain below normal.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 211 pm Thursday...

high pressure nestles its way back into central appalachia on
Wednesday in the wake of Tuesday's moisture starved cold front.

Clear skies overnight will allow for ample radiational cooling
to occur, leading to chilly mornings each day. Models are
hinting at a warm up for the end of the period, as southerly
flow invites warmer temperatures back into the forecast.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 115 pm Thursday...

a low pressure system crosses east, overhead tonight. Some caa
will occur bringing sub-freezing temperatures at h850 into
Friday morning. High resolution models suggest a lull in pcpn
to spread north from extreme southwest va, and along the
central mountains early tonight. However, as the low pressure
center crosses, wrap around pcpn is expected to spread across
southeast oh and portions of WV tonight, and eventually over the
northeast mountain during the overnight hours.

Ifr lifr conditions expected this evening under light rain or
sleet at least through 00z Friday. Expected CAA will cause rain
to transition into a snow mix or snow over the central and
northeast mountains of wv. Therefore, expect ifr lifr conditions
to continue during the overnight hours at most sites under low
level stratus.

The pcpn shield will move north and east away from the area this
evening, while wrapped around pcpn sneaks into southeast oh
later tonight. With CAA from the west, expect pcpn to return to
southeast oh as all snow, spreading east into wv. However, snow
accumulations will be very light. Snow could reduce visibilities
to ifr lifr, mainly central and northern sites overnight.

Lifr ifr visibility in snow showers may be more persistent in
and near the mountains.

Light and variable winds will become light to moderate from the west
to southwest and gusty tonight.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Friday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: periods MVFRVFR possible during improving
conditions, before pcpn transitions into all snow tonight.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
est 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h m h h h h h
hts consistency m m h h h m h h m m h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h m h h h h h
ekn consistency h h m m m m m m m h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h l h h
ckb consistency m m m m h h h h h h h h
after 18z Friday...

ifr possible in snow showers into Friday morning in the
mountains.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for
wvz522>524-526.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Arj 30 mek
near term... Arj
short term... 30
long term... Mek
aviation... Arj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi65 minN 01.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F39°F92%1013 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE5NE8NE8NE8NE6NE7NE7NE8E7E6E5N3N4N4NE3E6E4E4E7CalmCalmE4Calm
1 day agoN7NW3NW3NW5NW5N4N6N4N5N5N6N5N6N7N6N4NE3E55NE6NE7NE7NE7NE6
2 days agoNE6NE5E53N3N5N3N6N6N6N5N6N6N6N6N6NW6N5NW5N5NW5NW4NW3NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.