Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:58PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:16 AM EDT (08:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:47PMMoonset 1:16AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 210730
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
330 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
Frontal boundary in vicinity into the weekend with showers and
storms. Cold front Sunday night.

Near term through tonight
As of 320 am Thursday...

as of 07z, the frontal boundary was draped across central parts
of the cwa, generally in the vicinity of the route 33 50
corridor. A few shra continue to dot the area at this early hour
as low stratus and fog take hold north of the boundary.

For today... An upper level system will approach the area from
the southwest, as the pesky front begrudgingly tries to return
north. This scenario will provide for two focusing mechanisms
for shra tsra today, with chances ramping up into categorical
from south to north today. Instability looks a bit less today
than previous days. This is especially true across the far
northern counties which look to stay north of the front until
early this evening. Pwats around 2 inches with moisture
advection from the upper level system, along with continued
warm cloud processes, will mean another day of downpours and a
flash flood threat. The most vulnerable areas are across
southeast oh and northern WV where FFG is considerably lower
than areas farther south. After mulling things over, i've
elected to hoist a flash flood watch across those locales. The
greatest threat within the watch for this afternoon looks to be
in the route 50 corridor, essentially where the front will be
located during maximum heating. This shifts into our far
northern counties this evening. The watch spans into the short
term to account for additional rains Friday. Temps may make a
run on the other side of 80 degrees before convection takes
over.

As mentioned the main focus remains across far northern
counties and southeast ohio tonight, though I cannot rule out
stray showers or storms anywhere overnight.

Short term Friday through Sunday night
As of 250 am Thursday...

a low pressure system will move into
the great lakes region Friday into Saturday. This will keep
plenty of moisture over the area allowing for showers and
thunderstorms. Meso models are showing some pretty decent
rainfall amounts on Friday afternoon and evening, especially
over northern portions of the region. Will go with a flash flood
watch for this region.

Deeper moisture pulls out by Saturday, so while showers and
thunderstorms are still expected Saturday and Sunday, the flash
flood threat lessens.

A cold front is then expected to push through Sunday night.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
As of 250 am Thursday...

a high pressure system will build into the region on Monday,
remaining through mid week. While some residual moisture behind
the front could allow for some showers or thunderstorms in the
southern counties on Monday, expect dry weather for Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
As of 200 am Thursday...

isolate shra threat continues across the area through the
predawn hours, courtesy of a lingering frontal boundary. North
of this boundary, ares of ifr or worse stratus and or fog will
develop, most likely affecting northern terminals. This low
stratus will be slow to dissipate Thursday, taking until perhaps
late morning to lift into a bkn MVFR CU field.

An upper level system will approach from the southwest today
with rounds of showers and storms moving through. Coverage
should be greater than yesterday with high confidence on all
terminals being affected at some point this afternoon evening.

Brief ifr or worse vsby in the strongest convection which is
being handled with 2 hour tempo groups centered around the time
of highest confidence for each terminal.

Evening showers storms will gradually wane across northern sites
this evening, with areas of low stratus developing along and
northwest of the ohio river.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Friday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing and density of low stratus and fog
tonight may vary at northern sites. Timing of convection today
may vary an hour or two at each site.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Thu 06 21 18
utc 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
edt 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency h h h h h h h h l l h m
hts consistency h h m m m m m h h m m h
bkw consistency h h h h h m m m h l h m
ekn consistency l m h h h h h m h h h h
pkb consistency m l m m m m m h h m h h
ckb consistency l m l m h m m h m m h h
after 06z Friday...

brief ifr conditions expected in afternoon thunderstorms
through the weekend.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Flash flood watch from 1 pm edt this afternoon through late
Friday night for wvz007>011-016>020-028>032-039-040-
521>526.

Oh... Flash flood watch from 1 pm edt this afternoon through late
Friday night for ohz066-067-075-076-083>086.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Rpy 30
near term... 30
short term... Rpy
long term... Rpy
aviation... 30


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi25 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds71°F68°F90%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5S3SW4SW63SW6SW9W8SW7
G19
W63
G16
S6W8W3S3S3S5CalmCalmSW4SW6SW4Calm
1 day agoSW4SW5SW5SW6W55W6W7SW9W9W8W10
G21
SW4N5N12NW7CalmSE3CalmCalmSW3CalmS4S4
2 days agoCalmSW3S4SW4SW5SW53SW6W6W5NW34SW8SW7W5SW7W5SW3SW3SW3S3SW5SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.