Thursday, June22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:58PM Thursday June 22, 2017 2:28 PM EDT (18:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:55AMMoonset 6:22PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 221750
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
150 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Tropical moisture to bring heavy showers thunderstorms for the end
of the work week into early Saturday. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday,
with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers.

Near term through tonight
As of 925 am Thursday...

no changes this morning.

As of 630 am Thursday...

bumped up pops in scattered range for ckb to ekn for another
hour or two, otherwise no other changes made at this time.

As of 140 am Thursday...

kept the low pops in across far north with isolated showers
through dawn in close proximity to a warm front. This boundary
will retreat off to the north later this morning. Attention
quickly turns to what will be the remnants of cindy. Models
continue to be in good agreement on a piece of energy breaking
off from the circulation and advancing northeast into the area
late afternoon. There may be a few storms in advance of the main
area of rain. Despite the surge in pwats, this feature will be
progressive this evening, such that flooding concerns are low
tonight. QPF amounts of .50 to .75 inches will be common. Tried
to show a break late tonight across much of the area, before the
next slug of moisture works in from the west at dawn, affecting
mainly southeast ohio, northeast ky, and western wv.

Short term Friday through Saturday
As of 240 am Thursday...

tropical moisture remains over the region on Friday, with a cold
front and the remaining circulation of cindy moving through Friday
night into early Saturday. Models are in decent agreement with the
general pattern, although some small timing differences continue.

The big differences between models are still in the location of the
heavier precipitation bands. Models generally struggle in tropical
systems with this, so not a big surprise. The problem however is
where to post a flood watch. Confident that one will be needed, but
not confident on where.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
As of 240 am Thursday...

upper level trough will provide unseasonably mild weather with low
humidity through this period. Models have several upper level
disturbances moving through the trough, but vary on the strength and
timing. Some light showers are possible with these disturbances.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
18z Thursday through 18z Friday...

as of 135 pm Thursday...

expect rain to move in after 23z this evening from southwest to
northeast, with possible thunderstorms embedded within as well.

Largely going with an MVFR forecast, although brief ifr is
usually a possibility at the onset of heavier rain, with the
visibilities coming up after the initial burst of rain.

Therefore, some additional tempo grids may be need to cover that
on the first hour of the rain.

Ceilings to degrade to MVFR after the passage of the rain storms
across the entire area. Any ceilings that drop into the 1-2kft
range will come up slightly, but remain MVFR as winds increase
in the 12-15kt range with gusts 20-25kts, slightly higher for
the mountain terminals.

Should see some breaks in the rain storms tomorrow on the back
end of the taf.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Friday...

forecast confidence: high
alternate scenarios: timing of rain into this evening may vary
an hour or so.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
edt 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h m m l
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h m h l
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h m l
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h l
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
after 18z Friday...

ifr possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday night.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Flash flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night
for wvz005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.

Oh... Flash flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night
for ohz066-067-075-076-083>087.

Ky... Flash flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night
for kyz101>103-105.

Va... Flash flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night
for vaz003-004.

Synopsis... Rpy 30
near term... 30 26
short term... Rpy
long term... Rpy
aviation... 26

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi37 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F70°F67%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
Last 24hr5W11
1 day agoNW6NW8SW8SW5W6W4CalmSE3S3CalmS3CalmCalmS3S3S3CalmCalmSW3SW4SW5SW86SW8
2 days agoW6SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.