Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 2:19 PM   Moonset 3:38 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KRLX 182324 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 724 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry today. Another round of showers and storms Friday with a cold front. Cooler and drier this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 710 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 1216 PM Thursday...

Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front.
Winds will pick up towards early Friday with approach of this system. With the storms, widespread severe is not anticipated, but depending on timing of front and convective development, an isolated strong storm cannot be completely ruled out across the south and east, but overall, the front should be through most locations by peak heating, thus limiting overall instability and severe potential.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms continuing along the mountains Friday night before largely moving out before midnight. Post-FROPA NW winds will be picking up going into Saturday morning, especially along the mountains, but winds will be below advisory criteria.

Saturday looks to be cool and dry with departing clouds behind the cold front. The lowlands will see temperatures in the low to mid 60s, while the mountains will stay in the 40s and 50s. Lows Saturday night will be cold with widespread 30s and 40s leading to frost concerns for the active growing areas going into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

Dry and cooler weather will still be in play to end the weekend, with the coolest day being Sunday where the lowlands will see temperatures in the mid to upper 50s; 40s and 50s in the mountains. There could be some showers across the southwestern VA and southern WV mountains Sunday due to some moisture passing to our south from The GoM.

There remains the possibility for a couple mornings of frost across the region next week. Cold lows in the 30s will allow for a more widespread development Monday morning; which could prompt some frost/freeze headlines across counties with active growing seasons.

Guidance is still split on what will happen with a front next week, but some midweek rain or thunderstorms could be possible.
Temperatures look to be near normal to a few degrees below normal next week, with Tuesday being the warmest day.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 730 PM Thursday...

VFR will prevail until lower clouds and rain ahead of a cold front cross into the area in the mid to late morning. Showers will likely reduce VIS slightly, but not lower than MVFR, unless a storm develops. Lower CIGs (MVFR) will spread across the area during the early afternoon and make it to the mountains (eastern sites) by late afternoon. The western sites will break out to VFR, except for CRW who may take slightly longer. The eastern sites will likely break out to VFR in the late afternoon to early evening. Some lower CIGs , maybe even IFR at times, have potential to form along the mountains and possibly affect CKB/EKN/BKW for a short period in the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop




Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Charleston, WV,