Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday April 27, 2017 3:15 AM EDT (07:15 UTC) Moonrise 6:23AMMoonset 8:27PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 132 Am Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this evening...
Overnight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Am Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will continue to drift northeast from the delmarva through morning. A weak cold front will cross the waters Thursday night. A backdoor cold front will move east across the chesapeake bay region Sunday morning. A stronger cold front will cross the region Monday night. A small craft advisory is possible Sunday night into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren CDP, VA
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location: 38.31, -77.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 270137
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
937 pm edt Wed apr 26 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure east of new jersey will continue to slowly move
northeast through tonight. A weak cold front cross the area from
the west Thursday night. A backdoor front will move west across
the area Saturday night into Sunday before lifting north as a
warm front early Monday. A stronger cold front will move through
the region from the west Monday night.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 9pm, there is a weak surface ridge extending from off the
mouth of the chesapeake bay to to roughly dulles and south of
the low off the nj shore. Light SE flow is across the cwa. A
swath of low clouds persists over the baltimore metro area.

Northeastern sections of the area should see an increase in low
level clouds through the night with patchy fog. West of there to
the blue ridge, expect radiational fog to develop overnight in
the clear and calming conditions.

Min temps mid to uppers 50s inland to around 60f in urban
centers per er superblend.

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/
After the low pressure area finally departs and moves east of
cape cod Thursday skies should finally return to a mostly sunny
condition - after morning fog/low clouds.

South winds begin to mix after 10am with gusts 20 to 25 mph
across the area through the afternoon. Well mixed 14c 850mb
temps should result in low to mid 80s maxima.

But the respite from clouds will be short. A weakening cold
front will be pushing into the mid atlantic Thursday night
bringing the chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms. This will
not be coming through at a prime time for severe weather.

Coverage will be spotty, so one place could pick up a few tenths
of an inch of rain while ten miles away stays dry.

The front is expected to be east of the region by Friday
morning. Skies should improve, highs again in the lower to mid
80s.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
High pressure will be to our southeast with a front along the mason-
dixon line Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will remain
warm with a chance of showers or a thunderstorm mainly across the
northern half of our region.

By Sunday into Sunday night, the high to the southeast will break
down with the front sliding across the d.C. Area during the day
before meandering northward as a warm front Sunday night. The chance
for showers and thunderstorms will become more prominent,
mainly Sunday with the front nearby and before the warm surge.

An increasing southerly wind will usher in warmer and more humid air
to help fuel showers and thunderstorms Monday into Monday evening. A
strong cold front should works its way eastward across the region
Monday night.

Gusty westerly winds and drier and cooler air will filter into the
region Tuesday and Tuesday night behind the cold front as high
pressure builds in from the west.

High pressure moves offshore Wednesday, while keeping conditions
dry. A return flow will be an indication that a new warm front will
try to push across the region later Wednesday.

Aviation /01z Thursday through Monday/
MVFR CIGS persists in the baltimore metro...VFR elsewhere rest
of the evening. Fog/low stratus development expected overnight.

Still left visibilities in the 2-3sm range given potential
presence of low clouds generally 08z-14z.

Vfr after 13-14z Thursday with increasing southerly flow. Gusts
20 to 25 kt expected through the afternoon. Showers/isolated
thunderstorms possible Thursday night as a weakening cold front
moves through.VFR again Friday.

MVFR to ifr conditions expected Saturday through Sunday with showers
and thunderstorms in the area near mrb, iad, mtn and bwi terminals.

Vfr conditions elsewhere. MVFR to perhapsVFR conditions Sunday
night. Winds southwest around 5 knots Saturday, becoming light and
variable Saturday night, then east 5 to 10 knots Sunday, and
southerly 5 to 10 knots Sunday night.

Marine
Winds expected to remain below SCA values through tonight. Southerly
flow increases through Thursday with 20 knot gusts warranting a
small craft advisory from noon to midnight. Showers/isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night as a weak cold
front enters the bay region. Southerly channeling ahead of this
front warrants a continued SCA until 5 am Friday.

No marine hazards expected Saturday through Sunday night. Winds
southwest 5 to 10 knots Saturday, becoming light and variable
Saturday night, then east 10 knots Sunday, and southeast 10 knots
Sunday night.

Tides/coastal flooding
Water levels have decreased slightly with northwest winds today but
remain elevated, especially from the potomac river southward.

Straits point will exceed minor flood stage through at least the
overnight high tide cycle. Guidance shows steady to decreasing
waters for the remainder of the week, but am a bit skeptical
about this outcome considering winds will become south or
southwesterly through that time. Thus minor flooding at
sensitive sites will need to continue to be monitored. In terms
of the current guidance, Friday morning will be the next
targeted opportunity.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for mdz017.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Thursday to 5 am edt Friday for
anz531>534-537-539>541-543.

Small craft advisory from noon Thursday to midnight edt
Thursday night for anz530-535-536-538-542.

Update... Jackson
previous... Woody!/klw/ads


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 1 mi45 min ESE 7 G 9.9 62°F 63°F1009.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi45 min SE 8.9 G 9.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi45 min ESE 6 G 7 60°F 59°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 36 mi45 min S 8.9 G 9.9 59°F 1010.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi45 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 61°F 62°F1009.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi25 min S 7.8 G 7.8 59°F 1010.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi45 min Calm G 1 61°F 64°F1009.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi25 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 60°F 1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair61°F60°F97%1009.8 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair58°F57°F100%1009.1 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA22 mi20 minN 01.50 miFog/Mist55°F55°F100%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N10N8NW7N7N9N7NE7N4E6E8E5E6CalmE5NE5SE4S7S7S5SE5SE4SE3Calm
1 day agoNE15
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NE14NE15
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2 days agoE11E8NE7NE12
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NE14NE8NE12NE12--N10NE7NE14
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G21
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NE15NE11NE16
G22

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
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Thu -- 04:16 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:45 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:37 PM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:48 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.91.62.12.32.21.91.30.80.2-0.1-0.200.511.51.81.91.61.20.70.2-0.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Cedar Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Upper Cedar Point Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:05 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:01 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:43 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.40.81.21.51.61.51.20.90.60.30.1-00.10.40.81.21.31.41.20.90.60.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.