Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:54PM Monday November 19, 2018 3:09 PM EST (20:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:12PMMoonset 2:49AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1234 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1234 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak area of low pressure north of the waters will pull off to the northeast today as a frontal boundary lingers nearby. Another wave of low pressure will move across the waters tonight as a cold front sweeps through on Tuesday. A more potent cold front will navigate across the waters late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong canadian high pressure will build over the waters for the remainder of the work week. Small craft advisories may be required for portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren CDP, VA
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location: 38.31, -77.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 191933
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
issued by national weather service mount holly nj
233 pm est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
A weak area of low pressure over the ohio valley will ride
along a stationary boundary situated near the mason dixon line
tonight, with a cold front crossing the area during the day on
Tuesday. Low pressure will move across the northern great lakes
on Wednesday, pushing a strong cold front through the region
Wednesday night. High pressure of canadian origin will build to
our north for the remainder of the work week before another
system threatens the area over the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Weak low propagating along the front will lift northeast tonight
further away from the region. The front will finally begin to
make progress through the region as a cold front through the
early morning hours.

Along and just behind the front, we could see light
precipitation, primarily west of the blue ridge. With the
exception of higher elevations in wv, md, and va highlands,
most of the region should remain well above freezing. Thus, if
any precipitation occurs, it will be mostly rain. In the higher
elevations of the appalachians however, a rain snow mix
changing to all snow is possible. There is limited moisture with
this system though, so if any snow accumulation occurs it
should be less than one inch, or less than 2 inches along the
allegheny front.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
Precipitation will come to an end as the northwesterly flow
behind the cold front will lead to dry air advection. The one
exception is along the allegheny front, where orographic lift
could result in lingering light showers.

With the cold air advection behind the front, temperatures will
be considerably lower than on Monday. Highs will be about 10 to
15 degrees lower than highs on Monday, or about 5 to 10 degrees
below normal.

On the back side of the low, expect a tight pressure gradient,
resulting in northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph at times
and up to 30 mph along ridge lines.

By Tuesday night, winds will start to diminish and skies will
clear out. This will set the stage for efficient radiational
cooling conditions. Consequently, widespread freezing conditions
are expected across the region, with the exception of the urban
centers where the temperatures may stay just above freezing.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure builds in for Wednesday, continuing a trend of
below normal temperatures.

A dry, arctic cold front is expected on thanksgiving. The air
behind this front is the coldest of the season so far, with
temps likely not getting far from the freezing mark on
thanksgiving day, and possibly reaching the teens in many areas
thanksgiving night. See the climate section below for a few
notes on how rare this cold spell might be, though the midnight
temperatures will affect this.

Did not make many changes to the grids beyond thanksgiving as
there is still considerable uncertainty with the weekend
systems. Many models trended slower with the onset of
precipitation, now depicting precipitation not arriving until
early Saturday morning. While a later onset would be good news
for most of the region, with the chance for precipitation type
to be all rain increasing, there remains significant chance of
some wintry weather at the onset especially west of the blue
ridge with the potential for cold air damming. Just how
persistent this wintry weather will be is yet to be determined,
but anyone with travel plans Friday night into Saturday should
keep an eye on evolving forecasts.

The low will likely pass us by Sunday and with a more pacific-
type air mass following it, the storm looks likely to do what
the system last week did... Nudge the coldest air back north of
the region and leave some more moderate temperatures over our
region for Sunday. Uncertainty regarding the timing of a system
quickly following on the first one's heals makes the forecast
for Sunday uncertain, but some rain is possible per the gfs, for
example. Other models, notably the ecmwf, allow for more of a
gap between the systems, which would make Sunday a fairly decent
travel day. Stay tuned...

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Vfr with dry conditions is expected at all the terminals through
00z. A weak area of low pressure will passing along and to the
north of the terminals tonight, with mrb serving to see the best
chance of MVFR vis CIGS due to -shra, all other terminals
likely to remainVFR and mainly dry.

A cold front will cross the terminals early Tuesday with winds
shifting out of the northwest. Gusts up to 25 kt will also be
possible after 15z. A stronger but dry cold front will move
through the terminals late Wednesday into Wednesday night,
maintaining gusty northwest winds withVFR vis CIGS prevailing.

Vfr conditions expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure
builds in behind another cold front. Gusty NW winds may be an
issue, with gusts likely in the 20-30 knot range.

Marine
Winds are expected to remain below small craft advisory
conditions through tonight as winds should stay mostly light. A
cold front will move through the waters on Tuesday with
increasing northwesterly winds expected, thus an sca GOES into
effect Tuesday morning and persists for portions of the waters
into Tuesday night. A brief lull may be realized Wednesday
morning over the waters as the gradient weakens, however another
strong cold front is expected to sweep through the waters late
Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing solid SCA gusts over the
marine district.

Small craft advisories are likely Thursday and may continue into
Friday as another cold front slides across the region.

Climate
Unseasonably cold weather is looking increasingly likely to
briefly take hold of the region on thanksgiving. Daytime
temperatures are likely to stay in the 30s, and it could be the
coldest thanksgiving in over 20 years, depending on the readings
at midnight. Here are the benchmark readings to compare this
thanksgiving to:
washington dc area
year high elapsed
2017 47 1 year
2013 40 5 years
2000 38 18 years
1996 35 22 years
1930 30 88 years
the high has not been lower than 30 on thanksgiving since
official temperature record keeping began in 1872.

Baltimore md area
year high elapsed
2017 44 1 year
2013 38 5 years
2000 37 18 years
1996 33 22 years
1930 31 88 years
the high has not been lower than 31 on thanksgiving since
official temperature record keeping began in 1872.

Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore setting
the annual record already. Here are the current rankings for
wettest year on record (through november 18th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.58 inches (2018)
5. 58.17 inches (1886)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 63.18 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
3. 62.35 inches (1889)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.17 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
4. 58.09 inches (1996)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am Tuesday to 5 am est Wednesday
for anz530>534-537>543.

Small craft advisory from 9 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for anz535-
536.

Synopsis... Bkf 99
near term... Bkf 99
short term... Bkf 99
long term... Rcm 99
aviation... Bkf rcm 99
marine... Bkf rcm 99
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 1 mi40 min E 6 G 7 52°F 49°F1015.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi46 min S 6 G 7
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi40 min S 5.1 G 6 55°F 52°F1016.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 36 mi40 min S 11 G 12 53°F 1017.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi40 min SSW 7 G 8 56°F 50°F1016.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi40 min 52°F 1017.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi100 min SE 5.1 55°F 1017 hPa45°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi40 min S 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 46°F1016.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi40 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 53°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi74 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F46°F75%1016.9 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi75 minSSE 510.00 miFair62°F46°F56%1016.3 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA22 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair61°F45°F58%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4S4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW6NW4CalmW4CalmNW4W3CalmNW3NW5CalmS3S4S3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE5E5NE4CalmNW5NW5NW5NW7NW5NW7NW6NW5NW7NW6NW7NW6NW5NW4NW3SW3SW4S4S4Calm
2 days agoW9W6W8CalmNW5NW6E7W3NW4NW7NW7NW6NW8W7NW6NW5N7N6NE5N6NE94N4E7

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
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Mon -- 02:49 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:52 AM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:17 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.310.60.30.100.10.50.91.21.51.61.51.20.80.50.200.10.30.71.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Cedar Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.