Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren, VA

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:08PM Friday September 21, 2018 11:58 AM EDT (15:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:38PMMoonset 2:24AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1053 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through Saturday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Showers late this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 1053 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore today. A cold front will approach from the great lakes this evening, cross the waters tonight into Saturday morning, and then stall south of the waters through Monday. The front will then return northward next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren CDP, VA
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location: 38.31, -77.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 211417
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1017 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the northwest this afternoon as
high pressure moves out into the atlantic ocean. The front will
move into the region tonight, stall near the area over the
weekend, and then move back northward as a warm front next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure ridging extends southwestward along the us east
coast. This has promoted low level southeast flow, aiding in low
level moisture transport. Aloft, weak warm air advection has
begun, and on the leading edge of the push, some showers are
moving across southern maryland and the tidal potomac. Stratus
will gradually break and lift, although progress will be slow,
and may take until well into the afternoon for some locations
east of the blue ridge.

For locations west of the blue ridge where stratus is either
non-existent or will break earlier, instability will develop by
the afternoon, with 500-1000 j kg of MLCAPE likely available.

Therefore, some isolated to scattered showers thunderstorms
become possible during the afternoon hours. These however are
not expected to become particularly strong given weak forcing
and depicted warm nose aloft between 600-400 mb stunting growth.

That will not be the case further north west over the ohio
valley, pa, and across the eastern great lakes closer to the
cold front where more organized convection is expected.

High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
The cold front will continue pushing southeastward this evening
and tonight. Upstream convection over the ohio valley and pa
will make its way southeastward, however is largely expected to
weaken as it approaches our region late this evening and
tonight. Will have to closely monitor its progression as even as
its weakening, some gusty showers storms will be possible across
western md and eastern wv. For the remainder of the area, only a
few isolated to scattered showers are expected as the front
crosses. By Saturday morning, the front should be roughly
located from near de westward to southern md to near central va.

Lows tonight in the 60s to near 70f.

The front will settle south of the region on Saturday with
cooler and drier northerly flow setting up. This should actually
keep much of the area dry during the day Saturday. Across
central va and into the potomac highlands, some afternoon
showers storms may develop closer to the frontal boundary, with
heavy rain being the primary threat. Highs from 70-80f.

Conditions then become favorable for a return to wet conditions
Saturday night, Sunday, and Sunday night as upper level energy
interacts with southwest flow bringing in additional moisture
overrunning the boundary to our south. Periods of rain and
showers will become likely during this time with cool conditions
under northerly surface flow. Given wet antecedent conditions, a
flood threat may present itself, but placement and intensity of
heaviest rain is uncertain at this time. Temperatures Sunday
will remain in the 60s to near 70f. Lows in the 50s to near 60f.

Long term Monday through Thursday
A front will be stalled just south of our area on Monday while a
high pressure centered over new england moves offshore. This will
keep the cold air damming pattern over us on Monday. Below normal
high temperatures are expected, with the high temperatures reaching
the 60s and low 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible
along the front.

The front will lift as a warm front on Monday night into Tuesday
while southerly flow settles over us. Warm and moist air advection,
along with diurnal heating can produce additional showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, along with a warming trend.

An amplified mid to upper level trough will be pushing east into the
eastern CONUS Tuesday into Thursday. A surface front approaches the
mid-atlantic region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and moves across
Wednesday night into Thursday. The front will then stall over or
just to our south. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again
Wednesday and into the end of the week, especially over areas closer
to the frontal boundary.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Widespread MVFR with isolated ifr conditions expected under a
low stratus deck later this morning. A few rain showers or
drizzle are also possible, but not expecting much in the way of
visibility reductions. Gradual improvement should occur this
afternoon to return toVFR. A few showers storms are possible
this afternoon, mainly at mrb.

A cold front will approach the region this evening, with some
additional shower thunderstorm activity possible. Much of it
should weaken before reaching any TAF sites, with mrb having the
highest chance of any impacts.

The front will then cross the region late tonight into Saturday
morning, turning winds northerly. Rain chances increase
significantly Saturday night into Sunday as the front stalls
nearby. Potential exists for subVFR vis CIGS during this
timeframe.

Sub-vfr conditions are possible Monday into Wednesday as several
boundaries will be near over our region allowing for showers and
thunderstorms at times over the terminals.

Marine
Sub-sca winds expected to continue later this morning, but
south to southeast winds will increase again this afternoon and
evening ahead of a cold front with a SCA in effect. This front
will traverse the waters on Saturday, lingering to the south for
the remainder of the weekend. SCA was extended to cover a surge
in northerly winds behind the front Saturday. Sub-sca winds
then expected Saturday night and Sunday.

Periods of small craft advisory may be needed between Monday and
Wednesday as mixing increases over the waters while several
boundaries are near over our region.

Tides coastal flooding
Onshore flow has caused increased tidal anomalies. While some
decrease is expected into Saturday, the threat for coastal
flooding will persist into the weekend given increasing
astronomical tides and onshore flow.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood warning until 11 am edt this morning for dcz001.

Coastal flood advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt
this evening for dcz001.

Md... Coastal flood watch from 9 pm edt this evening through
Saturday morning for mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for mdz011-
014.

Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
mdz016.

Coastal flood advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for
mdz017.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
mdz018.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
mdz508.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz057.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for vaz054.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Saturday for anz531-
538>540.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for anz532>534-
537-541>543.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Saturday for anz530-535-536.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Mm klw
short term... Mm
long term... Imr
aviation... Imr klw
marine... Imr klw
tides coastal flooding... Klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 1 mi41 min 69°F 77°F1023 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi65 min SSW 7 G 8
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi41 min 73°F 78°F1023.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 36 mi47 min 73°F 1024.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi47 min 75°F 78°F1023.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi39 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 1023.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi149 min S 4.1 67°F 1024 hPa64°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi47 min 69°F 74°F1023.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi39 min S 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi2 hrsS 13 G 1610.00 miOvercast67°F66°F100%1024 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi2.1 hrsSE 410.00 miOvercast68°F68°F100%1023.4 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA22 mi2.1 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmS3CalmS4SE7SE10SE11SE10S8S10S9S10S15S10S8S9S8S7SW7S11S5SW11S13
G16
1 day agoN9
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NE7N8NE6CalmNW5CalmNW5N3NW3NW5NW3NW4NW4NW4NW4NW3NW3E4Calm
2 days agoS5S43N5N9N7N11
G17
NE6N6NW8NW7NW8NW8NW8NW10NW9NW5CalmCalmCalmNW4NW6N7N12

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Upper Cedar Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.