Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Drum Point, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:55PM Thursday November 15, 2018 10:22 PM EST (03:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:09PMMoonset 11:52PM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 938 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect until 6 am est Friday...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Friday through Friday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 938 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move off to the northeast overnight. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley Friday through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and a weak cold front may pass through early next week. Gale warnings may be required Friday, and small craft advisories may be needed through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Drum Point CDP, MD
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location: 38.32, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 160140
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
840 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure along the carolina coast will move north toward
long island by tonight. High pressure will build in from the
ohio valley over the weekend. A cold front will likely approach
from the great lakes early next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Coastal low pressure continues to track north up the mid-
atlantic coast this evening. As of 8 pm, it was located over
southeastern virginia. The upper-level low is moving through the
ohio valley during this time.

The dry slot has moved in, causing precipitation rates to
decrease, but light precipitation is still occurring as warm and
moist air overrun the surface cooler air in place. The warm
advection aloft has caused most areas to change over to rain,
but temperatures remain near or below freezing across the far
northern and western suburbs of washington and baltimore to the
potomac highlands. Across these areas, rain will freeze on
contact with untreated surfaces. The most ice accretion should
be along and west of the blue ridge and catoctin mountains.

The low will move to the north overnight, but the upper-level
low will swing through the area. A northwest flow will develop
behind the departing low, causing central and southern areas to
dry out. However, a period of snow is expected across northern
areas, mainly from the potomac highlands into eastern west
virginia, northern maryland and extreme northern virginia. An
additional coating to an inch with a quick burst of snow is
possible across these areas. However, upslope snow may cause
more accumulation along and west of the allegheny front.

Have left the winter storm warning in effect for north-central
maryland and along west of the blue ridge and catoctin mountains
for the additional glaze of ice through late this evening. The
warning may be able to be cancelled early to the south, but will
likely remain in effect overnight until precipitation shuts off
behind the departing upper-level low toward morning. A winter
weather advisory remains in effect for portions of northern
virginia and northwest harford county in maryland. An additional
light glaze of ice is expected, especially on elevated surfaces.

The snow from the upper-level low should end from west to east
between 1 am and 5 am overnight, but upslope snow will likely
continue along west of the allegheny front. Dry conditions along
with blustery northwest winds are expected by Friday morning for
most areas. As for temperatures, most areas should be above
freezing near washington and baltimore, but temps near freezing
along the mason-dixon line and near west of the blue ridge and
catoctin mountains may cause slippery conditions to persist.

A couple other things... First, the combination of melting snow
and runoff from the rain has caused elevated stream and creek
levels overnight. An isolated instance of flooding is possible
across central virginia into the metro areas. Minor flooding is
expected along the robinson river near locust dale. Second, a
wind advisory is in effect for the ridge tops of the blue ridge
and potomac highlands overnight. Strong winds along with
snow ice on trees may cause downed trees and power outages. Even
though winds will not be quite as strong in the valleys, we are
getting reports of around a quarter inch of ice in the northern
shenandoah valley to close to a half inch of ice in the central
shenandoah valley. Gusty winds may cause downed trees and power
outages across these areas as well.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday night
Low pressure pushes quickly northeast away from us on Friday,
with weak high pressure dominating late Friday through Saturday
night. Breezy conditions will persist on Friday, with some
upslope snow showers possible with only light accumulations.

Drying and warming will the the predominate theme elsewhere,
with highs rebounding back towards 50 and lows near freezing.

Some high elevation freezing drizzle can't be ruled out Friday
night thanks to a bit of low level moisture being lifted on the
ridges, but otherwise, do not expect any significant precip.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Cloudy but dry conditions are forecast for Sunday, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 40s to around 50. A cold front will progress
through the area on Monday as a vigorous shortwave trough
traverses the great lakes region. With the main forcing for
ascent associated with the trough displaced well to our north
and limited moisture ahead of the cold front, any precipitation
is expected to be light and mainly confined to upslope favored
areas to the west of the blue ridge. High pressure will move
back in for Tuesday, resulting in quiet weather conditions and
below normal temperatures with highs in the 40s.

Beyond Tuesday, model guidance begins to diverge. The GFS has a mid-
level shortwave moving through during the day Wednesday, along with
an associated reinforcing cold front at the surface. This solution
has very little precipitation associated with the front. The euro on
the other hand maintains high pressure overhead, with quiet weather
conditions across the area.

Aviation 01z Friday through Tuesday
Ifr conditions will persist through late this evening, before
gradually lifting overnight into Friday morning. Areas of rain
are expected through late this evening with freezing rain at
kmrb. Precipitation may end as a brief period of snow overnight,
especially across kmrb.

Vfr conditions are expected through the long term period.

Marine
Low pressure will pass through the waters tonight. There may be
a brief lull in the gusty winds as the low passes by, but a
surge behind the low will cause gusty winds to return toward
morning. A gale warning is in effect for the maryland chesapeake
bay overnight and it may be needed for portions of the waters
Friday morning. Solid SCA on NW flow behind departing low
expected all day Friday before diminishing in the evening.

Lighter winds expected Saturday as high pressure builds
overhead from the ohio valley.

Light winds expected on Sunday through Monday morning. Some
stronger wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon, but not
expected to reach SCA criteria at this time.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal anomalies have increased due to a northeast flow. Minor
flooding is possible overnight for washington dc, but elsewhere
water levels should stay below minor flooding thresholds.

Anomalies will decrease as an offshore flow develops toward
morning and lasting into the weekend.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 13th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.17 inches (1886)
5. 57.54 inches (1948)
6. 57.38 inches (2018)
7. 54.29 inches (1937)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 62.66 inches (2003)
2. 62.35 inches (1889)
3. 61.68 inches (2018)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.05 inches (1972)
3. 58.09 inches (1996)
4. 57.65 inches (2018)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for mdz003>006-501-
502.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Friday for mdz503-505-
507.

Va... Winter storm warning until 1 am est Friday for vaz025-503-504-
508.

Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
vaz025-026-503-504-507-508.

Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for vaz026>031-505-
507.

Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for vaz040-
501-506.

Wv... Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
wvz505-506.

Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for wvz050>053-055-
501>506.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Friday for
anz530>534-537>543.

Gale warning until 6 am est Friday for anz530>534-537>543.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Friday for anz535-536.

Synopsis... Ads rcm
near term... Bjl ads
short term... Ads
long term... Kjp
aviation... Bjl ads kjp
marine... Bjl ads kjp
tides coastal flooding... Bjl
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 0 mi35 min NW 8 G 13 47°F 53°F1004.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 7 mi35 min NNW 19 G 24 47°F 1004.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 14 mi41 min NNW 22 G 23
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 16 mi33 min 50°F 1004.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi33 min WNW 21 G 27 49°F 1002.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi41 min NW 16 G 20 46°F 48°F1003.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 23 mi35 min ENE 9.9 G 13 54°F 47°F1001.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi41 min 50°F 48°F1002.3 hPa
NCDV2 31 mi41 min NNW 6 G 9.9 39°F 46°F1004.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 35 mi113 min NNE 5.1 39°F 1007 hPa39°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 40 mi23 min N 16 G 19 42°F 49°F1005.9 hPa (-3.8)42°F
44063 - Annapolis 45 mi29 min 41°F 1005.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi35 min 41°F 1005.2 hPa
CPVM2 47 mi35 min 42°F 42°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 49 mi35 min N 6 G 8.9 40°F 47°F1005.9 hPa

Wind History for Solomons Island, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD3 mi91 minNNE 142.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F48°F100%1003.6 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD5 mi40 minW 95.00 miOvercast43°F42°F100%1005.1 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD12 mi30 minWNW 94.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist47°F46°F97%1003.3 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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NE16N17NE16NE17NE11NE14NW12
1 day agoW7W7W8NW12NW11N13N14NW17NW13N13N14NW12N14NW12NW9N11N10N7N5N7NE9NE7NE9NE13
2 days agoE8E9E10SE8E14
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W3NW19NW15NW12NW9W8NW12W9W9W11NW15NW16
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NW17N14NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Solomons Island, Patuxent River, Maryland
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Solomons Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:34 AM EST     1.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:56 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:18 PM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.30.40.60.811.11.110.80.60.40.30.20.30.50.811.21.31.21.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 03:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:12 AM EST     0.35 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:12 AM EST     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     0.38 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:26 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:41 PM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:52 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.30.30.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.40.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.