Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Ocean City, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:16PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 2:49 AM EST (07:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:54AMMoonset 11:42PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 1238 Am Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est early this morning through this evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 4 seconds...building to 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 4 seconds late. A slight chance of showers late.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt...becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Wed..W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 1238 Am Est Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides off the southeast us coast today. A cold front will move through the mid-atlantic states late tonight into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Ocean City, MD
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location: 38.34, -75.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230721
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
221 am est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
A trough crosses the region this morning... With the cold front
lagging behind and moving through the region by late afternoon.

The front pushes well off the coast tonight. High pressure
becomes centered over the south central states Wednesday and
builds east into the local area by Thursday.

Near term through today
Sfc lo pres found INVOF north central mi ATTM will be tracking
ene into SE canada today. Its accompanying cold front was the
approaching the mtns attm... And will be crossing the fa midday-
afternoon. Moisture continuing to increase ahead of the fa along
the E coast on S winds (becoming gusty). Area of shras now
moving through west central nc and SW va will be spreading into
at least WRN central portions of the fa before sunrise.

Maintaining hi pops (60-90%) this morning as cold front
enters begins to cross (wrn central portions of) the fa. Will
have widespread shras W possible isold tstms (despite minimal
instability cape). Model sherb values are from +1 to +1.5
between 12-18z 23... Though this parameter does have some
limitations and the synoptic pattern (sfc low into great
lakes) composites (lack of a sharp-digging upper level system
just W of the immediate region dissimilar upper level jet
structure) do not portray a high prob for tstms strong-severe
threat for the local area (substantially different from event
earlier this month (eve of the 12th)). SPC maintains a marginal
risk for severe... And if a distinct line or some discrete cells
do develop Tue morning... They will need to be monitored closely
(given strength of low level ssw jet). Will maintain mention in
hwo. Models remain in good general agreement wrt timing and
point to pops tapering off w-e quickly by aftn... W pcpn moving
out of the entire area by 21z 23-00z 24. Vrb clouds-partly sunny
by afternoon... Deep mixing and a downslope SW flow... Highs will
be 70-75f across much of central SE va and NE nc... W 65-70f on
the eastern shore and over the W NW sections of the fa (record
highs noted in climate section below).

Short term tonight through Thursday
Dry cooler tonight Wed W lows mainly in the 30s (around 40 f
se). Mostly sunny with highs Wed u40s on the ERN shore to 50-55
f elsewhere. Partly cloudy as an upper trough swings through wed
night with lows in the u20s-l30s. Mostly sunny and seasonable
thu W highs from the l40s NE to around 50 f south central va.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Overall pattern continues to show the long term period beginning
with a shortwave ridge building eastward from the mississippi
valley into the southeastern us and mid-atlantic states on
Friday into Saturday. This is followed by a full latitude trough
that moves in on Sunday into Monday. But today, the timing
between the models and strength of the cold front crossing the
area is different with the 12z GFS slower and weaker while the
12z ECMWF is slower, stronger and would provide more rain for
the region. The ECMWF right now has better run to run continuity
than the GFS as the 6z GFS was slower and wetter than the 12z
run. So for now have leaned a little more toward the slower
ecmwf for that part of the forecast.

On Thursday night through Friday, high pressure will be in
control of the regions weather with the high overhead expect to
see a very cool night with good radiational cooling, lows in the
m20s-l30s. Temperatures will begin to warm again on Friday as
warm advection begins with SW flow, expect highs in the u40s to
u50s. Mex guidance is a bit warmer and began to trend that
direction raising highs a few degrees above the other guidance.

The SW flow continues on Fri night with more dry weather and
maybe a few more clouds. Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s
are expected.

For Saturday through Sunday night, this is where the most
interesting portion of the extended lies as the quicker GFS has
the moisture and front approaching the area by late sat
afternoon, which is about 6 to 12 hours faster than the 6z gfs
or ecmwf. At this range, did raise pops a touch, but kept the
forecast dry on Sat with temperatures getting back into the u50s
to l60s. But beginning Sat night did start to raise pops up to
high chance values. Some guidance suggest pops in the likely
range are possible now, but with timing issues and also the
questionable forcing have capped pops at 50% from late Sat night
through Sunday with a slow clearing of the pops in Sunday
evening. Sunday looks like the most probably period for rain and
the ECMWF would indicate a beneficial rain, which would be good
for the drought areas, but at this range models have been
showing these types of events for the last few weeks, but the
plentiful rain has been materializing. Have kept temps mild on
sat night and Sunday with lows in the 40s and highs still in the
60s.

The front should clear the area Sunday night with NW and high
pressure building in on Monday. The strength of the developing
upper trough will determine how strong the low over new england
gets Sunday night and this will impact temps on Monday. The
ecmwf would suggest temperatures cooler than the currently
forecast in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday. But for now will
not bit completely on the ecmwf.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
Lowering CIGS (to ifr low end MVFR) through the early morning
period as moisture continues to increase on deep layered s
winds. A cold front is approaching from the W attm... And will
push across the fa this morning... Then off the coast this
afternoon eve. The front will be accompanied by shras. Instability
with the front will also bring a lo prob for isold tstms through
midday early afternoon. Clearing improving conditions expected
during the afternoon eve. Sfc hi pres builds into the local area
from the SW through thu.

Marine
High pressure over the waters is shifting east and offshore this
evening as low pressure moves into the great lakes. A
tightening pres gradient ahead of the approaching cold front
tonight will increase winds to 15 to 25 kt from the s-sw prior
to daybreak tues. These winds will persist thru midday early
aftn Tue becoming rather gusty by mid morning. Seas on the
coastal waters building to 4-6 ft; waves 3-4 ft on the bay
rather quickly in response to the SW winds. Scas remain in
effect for all waters overnight into Tuesday. With the primary
surface low so far displaced to the north it will be hard to get
gales with warm s-sw winds over cold water this time of year,
but did keep mention of a few gusts to 30 to 35 kt for our
northern coastal waters.

Once the front clears the area tues afternoon, winds will shift
to the west 15 kt tues night Wed and then northwest on Thursday.

Waves seas subside to 2-3 ft. There is another surge of cold
air Wed night into early Thu which will maintain the NW winds
of 15 kt with some higher gusts. Waves and seas may increase by
a foot to 2 to 4 ft with this surge thu. Conditions improve by
Friday as weak high pressure builds into the area.

Climate
Record high temperatures today.

Tuesday
ric 76 1974
orf 76 1999
sby 73 1999
ecg 76 1937

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
anz630>638.

Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz650-652-
654.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Ajz lkb
near term... Alb lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Ess
aviation... Alb
marine... Jdm
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 1 mi50 min SSW 8 G 8.9 43°F 37°F1015 hPa (-3.4)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 22 mi60 min SSE 12 G 14 46°F 38°F1 ft1015.3 hPa (-3.1)46°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 31 mi50 min SSW 8 G 12 53°F 35°F1013.8 hPa (-3.3)
44089 42 mi50 min 37°F2 ft
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 44 mi50 min S 12 G 19 47°F 36°F1013.8 hPa (-3.2)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 45 mi50 min S 18 G 18 47°F 1014.1 hPa (-3.2)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD3 mi57 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F44°F97%1014.9 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD22 mi56 minSE 410.00 miOvercast52°F48°F89%1014 hPa

Wind History from OXB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7W8SW7SW5SW5CalmSW4S3S4S7S7S7S5S6S5464SW5SW6SW5S35S4
1 day agoNW5NW3CalmCalmNW3NW3Calm4CalmCalmE3SE5SE4S3S3SW4SW3S3SW7SW11SW9SW12SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Keydash, Isle of Wight Bay, Maryland
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Keydash
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Tue -- 06:26 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:41 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:56 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:13 PM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.10.90.60.40.30.20.20.61.11.41.51.41.210.70.50.30.10.10.30.81.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fenwick Island Light, Delaware
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Fenwick Island Light
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:39 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:46 AM EST     3.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:09 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.22.72.11.40.80.30.30.71.42.22.93.43.53.12.41.710.40.10.30.91.72.43

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.