Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lusby, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:23PM Friday October 20, 2017 12:17 PM EDT (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:57AMMoonset 6:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 1031 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Rest of today..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Showers likely after midnight.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
ANZ500 1031 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain near the region through the weekend. A low pressure system will then affect the region early next week. A small craft advisory is likely for portions of the waters Monday through Tuesday. Gales are also possible for portions of the waters on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lusby, MD
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location: 38.35, -76.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 201415 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1015 am edt Fri oct 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain across the mid atlantic through this
weekend. A low pressure system will affect the region early
next week.

Near term through tonight
Tranquil weather under high pressure sfc and aloft. Maxt will be
in the mid 70s under light NW winds.

Tonight, high pressure builds overhead once again, so we should
have a decent inversion and a bit more potential for patchy
fog. Otherwise, mostly clear and cool with lows mostly in the
40s.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
High pressure will slowly shift east off the coast Saturday and
remain there Sunday. Winds will gradually become southerly and
temps aloft will warm a bit, but otherwise, mostly sunny skies
and light winds should prevail, as we generally remain under the
light gradient close to the center of the high. High clouds
will likely increase Sunday, and by Sunday night, the next
system may bring enough moisture and lift to spark a shower in
the mountains late at night, but that's about it though the
short term. Highs will be in the 70s, with Sunday probably just
slightly warmer than Saturday, and lows in the 40s Saturday
night, rising to the 50s Sunday night as the clouds and
southerly flow ahead of the next front keep it mild and better
mixed. Patchy fog will be a concern late at night and early in
the morning hours, probably more so Saturday night Sunday
morning than Sunday night.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Main story of the long term period is a powerful upper
trough front.

Phasing between northern and southern streams seems imminent
given amplification of flow upstream and blocking downstream.

The juxtaposition of the right-entrance region of the upper-jet,
strong mid-level vorticity advection and frontogenesis in the
low levels would suggest high probability for widespread and
potentially heavy precipitation. Given antecedent drier-than-
normal conditions and progressive (quick moving) nature of the
system, widespread flooding seems unlikely. The rain should
instead prove beneficial. Ensemble mean QPF is around 1-1.25",
mainly focused in 00z Tuesday through 12z Wednesday.

The tight gradient between deep troughing to the west and
ridging to the east is expected to result in a stribg southerly
low-level jet (marked by 50 knot 925 mb flow). This may result
in gusty winds reaching the surface, particularly with any
heavier showers or embedded convective elements. Timing and
strength differences are still evident amongst the latest
deterministic ensemble guidance, but gusty winds and heavy
downpours seem most likely sometime in the Tuesday morning
through Tuesday evening timeframe.

Cooler temperatures and the potential for showers are expected
during the middle of next week in the wake of the surface front
as upper troughing stalls overhead. Some ensembles hint at
coastal low development late next week, but historically it
becomes difficult to see substantial impacts from such a system
once the surface front has already rolled through.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr through Sunday night all terminals with light winds under
high pressure.

Sub-vfr possible Mon am (fog low cigs), then again late mon
night with lower CIGS developing showers ahead of an approaching
cold front. Llws possible by Tuesday with strong flow (40-45
kts) around 2kft. Models differ on timing but agree on overall
setup. Widespread restrictions likely Tuesday with showers (some
heavy) expected. Gusty surface winds possible.

Marine
Winds should generally stay below SCA criteria under high
pressure through Sunday night. There is a small risk of
southerly channeling Sunday night as the next front approaches,
but right now think odds are pretty low as low level jet stays
pretty weak.

Sca likely Monday as high pressure departs and southerly flow
develops. High end SCA seems likely Tuesday with strong
southerly llj. Gales possible as well, especially in heavier
convective elements ahead of an approaching cold front.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal anomalies will increase early next week as southerly flow
develops. Chances for minor tidal flooding increase as
southerly flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front
Monday night into Tuesday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Update... Lfr
synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Dfh
aviation... Rcm dfh
marine... Rcm dfh
tides coastal flooding... Dfh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 2 mi119 min NW 6 G 8 67°F 69°F1023.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 5 mi119 min NNW 14 G 16 67°F 1024.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi107 min NNW 14 G 16 68°F 1026.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 16 mi125 min NNW 8 G 8.9
44042 - Potomac, MD 23 mi107 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 1023.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 23 mi119 min NNW 8 G 11 69°F 63°F1024.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi125 min 68°F 67°F1024.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 25 mi125 min NNW 5.1 G 7 65°F 64°F1024.1 hPa
NCDV2 32 mi125 min NW 5.1 G 8 66°F 65°F1023.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 38 mi137 min NW 11 G 12 65°F 66°F
44063 - Annapolis 42 mi107 min N 12 G 14 66°F 1023.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi119 min 66°F 1023.3 hPa
CPVM2 45 mi119 min 69°F 53°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi119 min NW 5.1 G 11 67°F 67°F1024.4 hPa

Wind History for Solomons Island, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD5 mi25 minNW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F52°F50%1023.9 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD14 mi24 minVar 410.00 miFair74°F53°F48%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7S5W4SW5SW4SE5S4S3SW4SW4SW4SW5CalmW5W4W5NW6N5CalmCalmNW5NW6NW7NW8
1 day agoW5W644SE7SE5S4S5S6Calm3SW3SW5SW7SW5S6SW6SW4SW3SW5SW5SW6SW6SW7
2 days agoN7N9N7
G16
NE6N5NE3CalmSW3SW3SW4CalmSW4CalmSW3W3W5SW3W3W3W4W5W54SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Drum Point, Maryland
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Drum Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:39 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:56 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.41.61.61.41.10.80.50.30.30.40.71.11.51.81.91.91.71.41.10.80.60.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Fri -- 12:10 AM EDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:16 PM EDT     0.66 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:00 PM EDT     -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.300.40.60.60.40-0.4-0.7-0.9-1-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.