Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lusby, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:56PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 8:29 AM EDT (12:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:58AMMoonset 6:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 732 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt... Diminishing to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft. Occasional drizzle. Rain.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 732 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure weaken as it moves up the mid-atlantic coast through tonight. The low will move off to our north and east Wednesday and a cold front will approach from the west Thursday. The cold front will weaken and stall out nearby Thursday night and it will remain nearby through the weekend. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday into Thursday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lusby, MD
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location: 38.35, -76.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 250743
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
343 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure near the south carolina north carolina border will
move slowly northeastward along the north carolina coast through
this evening, and finally off the mid-atlantic coast Wednesday.

A cold front will approach the region late Thursday and remain
nearby through the weekend. A stronger cold front will pass
through the region early next week.

Near term /through tonight/
Low pressure will remain nearly stationary over north carolina
today before moving up the mid-atlantic coast tonight. High
pressure over southern canada into new england continues to
wedge south and west into the mid-atlantic. A northeast flow
around these systems has caused cool conditions for this time of
year. The onshore flow has also resulted in plenty of moisture.

Warm and moist air around the low will continue to overrun the
cooler air in place... Resulting in more clouds and rain today.

There has been lull in the rain early this morning... But a
soaking rain is likely to fill from southeast to northwest
between about 11z and 15z this morning. This is associated with
the convergence from the 850mb warm front that will propagate
into the area. Rain will continue through midday before tapering
off in coverage later this afternoon into this evening as the
dry slot rotating around the low builds into the area.

Therefore... The steadiest rain is expected from about mid-
morning through the middle afternoon hours. However... Even when
it is not raining that will be plenty of moisture underneath the
subsidence inversion for low clouds and areas of drizzle. Leaned
cooler than most guidance due to the cloud cover and rain
expected today.

The low become vertically stacked tonight as it moves up the
mid-atlantic coast. Therefore... It is expected to weaken. The
weakening low along with the dry slot in place will continue to
cause rain to diminish in coverage... But plenty of moisture
underneath the inversion will result in more low clouds along
with areas of light rain and drizzle. The best chance for
measurable rainfall will be across northern and eastern portions
of the CWA where wrap around moisture may build in as the low
passes by just to our east. Areas of fog are possible overnight
as well... Especially in the valleys west of the blue ridge
mountains where there may be some breaks in the stratus deck
toward morning. Fog may be locally dense.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/
The low will continue to weaken and move away from the area
Wednesday and upper-level ridging will build overhead. High
pressure over the atlantic ocean will begin to take over the
weather pattern... Allowing for a southerly flow to develop. The
southerly flow along with increasing sunshine and riding aloft
will allow for noticeably warmer conditions compared to the
previous couple days. MAX temps will range from the upper 60s in
northeastern maryland where clouds may hang on a bit longer to
the upper 70s/near 80 degrees across the central shenandoah
valley where more sunshine is expected.

A southerly flow will cause mild conditions Wednesday night as
well. A cold front will approach from the west Thursday before
moving into the area and weakening overhead Thursday night. A
south to southwest flow will usher in unusually warm conditions
for this time of year Thursday with MAX temps well into the 80s
for most locations. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
ahead of the front... Mainly late Thursday in the potomac
highlands into Thursday night across the rest of the area.

Coverage should remain isolated to widely scattered since
forcing will be weak. Best chance for gusty thunderstorms will
be across the potomac highlands perhaps into portions of the
shenandoah valley Thursday afternoon and evening. More mild
conditions are expected Thursday night.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
Warm and humid airmass will reside over the mid-atlantic through
much of the long term as our area remains in the warm
sector... With temperatures remaining well above normal through
the period. Heat and humidity will combine to foster moderate-
to-strong instability Friday into the weekend... Though focus for
convective development expected to be rather nebulous... With
terrain circulations likely main source for any diurnally-driven
thunderstorm activity. Isolated strong storms are possible
during the afternoons/evenings. Stalled front looks to remain
far enough north initially to impact the area... Though it could
sag toward the area late in the weekend. It remains unclear if
storms will remain over the higher terrain... Or if they will be
able push east toward the metro areas.

Potential for more widespread thunderstorm activity (some of which
could be strong) arrives Monday as strong cold front approaches
the region.

Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/
Cigs will continue to lower to ifr and even lifr levels early
this morning. Rain will become more widespread by mid-morning
and it will continue through most of the day before diminishing
in coverage late this afternoon and evening. Low clouds will
hang around. Ifr conditions are likely... But there may be
breaks of MVFR CIGS at times late this morning and afternoon.

Low pressure will pass by to the east tonight. Low clouds will
hang around underneath the subsidence inversion. Ifr conditions
are likely. CIGS may improve at kcho... But areas of fog may
develop due to light winds and saturated soil. Low clouds and
fog should give way toVFR conditions Wednesday... But the exact
timing of that occurring is uncertain at this time. Most likely
scenario is for MVFR conditions to develop in the morning and
becomeVFR by the afternoon.

Light winds and mainly clear skies may allow for areas of fog to
develop overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. A southerly
flow will develop Thursday and an approaching cold front may
trigger a shower/thunderstorm Thursday night. Coverage will be
isolated to widely scattered.

Vfr expected to prevail Friday into the weekend... Though,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
(especially during the afternoon/evening).

Marine
Low pressure over north carolina this morning will weaken as it
moves up the mid-atlantic coast later this afternoon through
tonight. A strong pressure gradient for today will cause gusty
northeast winds. A small craft advisory is in effect for the
waters. A gale warning is in effect this morning for the
maryland chesapeake bay south of drum point and the lower tidal
potomac river south of cobb island. The strongest winds will be
between 11z and 15z across these areas with gusts up to 35
knots.

Winds will gradually diminish later today and tonight as the
pressure gradient weakens. Will continue with the small craft
advisory for the bay and lower tidal potomac river tonight... But
that may be able to be cancelled early based on the latest
guidance. A southerly flow will develop Wednesday and the
southerly flow will strengthen ahead of a cold front Thursday
into Thursday night. A small craft advisory may be needed for
portions of the waters Thursday into Thursday night.

Light winds expected Friday into the weekend... Though, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms possible (especially during the
afternoon/evening).

Tides/coastal flooding
Easterly flow around low pressure to the south will continue to
promote persistent onshore flow over the waters through
today... Which will keep tidal anamolies elevated. Minor tidal
flooding is expected at straits point/st. Mary's county and a
coastal flood advisory has been extended for this afternoons
high tide cycle. There is still some uncertainty in flood
potential at other sensitive sites for the next high tide
cycle... Though it currently appears they will remain below minor
flood stage. The flow should gradually turn northerly tonight
into Wednesday as the low moves away from the area. Water levels
should begin to decrease during this time... Though minor
coastal flooding will remain possible through tonights tide
cycle at the most sensitive sites.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
mdz017.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Wednesday for anz530>533-
538>542.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 4 am edt
Wednesday for anz534-537-543.

Gale warning until 11 am edt this morning for anz534-537-543.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz535-
536.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl
short term... Bjl
long term... Mse
aviation... Bjl/mse
marine... Bjl/mse
tides/coastal flooding... Mse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 2 mi72 min NE 9.9 G 14 57°F 60°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 5 mi72 min ENE 14 G 18 56°F 1010.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi60 min NE 18 G 21 57°F 1011.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 16 mi72 min ENE 12 G 18
44042 - Potomac, MD 23 mi60 min NE 18 G 23 58°F 1008.1 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 23 mi72 min NE 14 G 22 58°F 58°F1010 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 25 mi72 min ENE 13 G 21 58°F 60°F1008.2 hPa
NCDV2 32 mi90 min NE 2.9 G 9.9 57°F 61°F1009.5 hPa (-0.7)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 38 mi90 min NE 15 G 16 55°F 56°F55°F
44063 - Annapolis 42 mi60 min ENE 16 G 18 56°F 1012.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi72 min 55°F 1012.3 hPa
CPVM2 45 mi72 min 56°F 56°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi72 min NNE 2.9 G 6 56°F 65°F1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Solomons Island, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD5 mi98 minNE 1310.00 miOvercast56°F55°F100%1009.9 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD6 mi69 minN 410.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1010.2 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD14 mi97 minNE 109.00 miOvercast57°F55°F96%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE13NE12NE14NE13NE6NE10NE12NE11NE12NE10NE8NE13NE10
G20
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--NE9N9NE9NE11NE10NE13NE14
G22
1 day agoNE12NE11NE6NE64NE53N3CalmCalmN6E9E9E12E9E11E9NE9NE7E10NE9NE8NE11NE13
2 days agoNE10NE9NE9NE6N7N10NE10NE12
G21
NE12N10N12NE11NE11NE6N7N7NE9N9NE10NE13NE12NE14NE9NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Drum Point, Maryland
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Drum Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:26 AM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:13 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:51 PM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.91.91.71.410.60.40.20.30.50.81.21.41.51.41.10.80.50.30.20.30.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Tue -- 01:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:20 AM EDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:20 PM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-1-1-0.8-0.6-0.20.10.40.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.4-00.40.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.