Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lusby, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:53PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 10:34 AM EST (15:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:35AMMoonset 10:44PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 1025 Am Est Tue Feb 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Thu night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
ANZ500 1025 Am Est Tue Feb 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will pass through the waters through midday. High pressure will remain off the southeast coast later this afternoon through Wednesday. A cold front will pass through the waters later Wednesday night into Thursday and it will remain stall to the south Thursday night before returning north as a warm front Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday night and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lusby, MD
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location: 38.35, -76.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 201529
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1029 am est Tue feb 20 2018

Synopsis
Southerly flow south of a warm front will bring near record
warmth to the region today and Wednesday. A cold front will
pass through Wednesday night into Thursday before stalling out
to our south Thursday night. The boundary will return north as a
warm front Friday into Saturday before a stronger cold front
passes through from the west on Sunday.

Near term through tonight
Warm front has dissolved and is reforming to the north as low
level inversion is rapidly mixing out. Clouds are quickly
dissipating and temperatures in the region are rising rapidly.

For the rest of today, south southwest winds and very warm
temperatures will be the main story as highly anomalous upper
level ridge (heights 2-3 sd above climatology for feb) sits
parked off of the southeast us coastline. 850 mb temperatures
will rise into the 13-15c range by this evening, which is very
rare territory for feburary. Expecting high temperatures to
reach the 70s for most locations, except holding in the 60s in
northeast md and along the chesapeake bay where clouds clear
last. Some locations west of the blue ridge will make a run at
80f.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
Tonight, with plenty of low level moisture as dew points sit in
the 50s, some fog and low clouds become possible again.

Extremely mild conditions for this time of the year are expected
with lows in the 50s to locally near 60f.

Wednesday will be exceptionally warm again with another day of
highs in the 70s to locally near 80f. As a cold front
approaches from the northwest later in the day, some showers
become possible west of the blue ridge.

The cold front will push southward across the region Wednesday
night, with surface northerly flow taking over. Aloft, with the
strong ridge still positioned near the southeast us coastline,
southwest flow will continue. This combined with some energy
aloft, will set the stage for a day of rain and drizzle on
Thursday, with temperatures crashing back towards normal, with
daytime highs in the 40s 50s.

Long term Friday through Monday
A boundary to our south will return north as a warm front Friday
and it will stall out near our area Friday night through
Saturday. Most of the area should remain north of the boundary
Friday... So low clouds along with chilly conditions are expected
with perhaps even some light rain and drizzle.

The boundary will likely move into the area Friday night and
hang around through Saturday night. There is high uncertainty
as to exactly where the boundary will be which means that there
is high uncertainty with the forecast. The boundary will
separate chilly marine air to the north vs unusually warm and
moist air to the south. It does look like there will be
shortwave energy passing through in the southwest flow
aloft... So rain is likely although it will probably not be
raining the whole time. Given the anomalously moist airmass in
place... Moderate to locally heavy rain is possible.

A stronger cold front is still expected to pass through the area
later Sunday into Sunday night from the west. More showers are
likely ahead of the front. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out either... Depending on whether or not the previously
mentioned boundary is overhead or to our north. If it is to our
north... Then the warm sector may provide enough instability for
some thunderstorms to develop.

Aviation 16z Tuesday through Saturday
Low clouds and fog have nearly finished mixing out.VFR is
expected through this evening with a southwest wind. Winds may
gust up to 25 knots this afternoon.

Additional low clouds and some fog are likely again tonight,
with potential for ifr returning, especially bwi mtn dca cho.

Similar to today, these ceilings visibilities will improve
through Wednesday morning withVFR by the afternoon.

As a cold front crosses Wednesday night with rain likely
Thursday, another period of sub-vfr is likely.

A boundary will approach from the south Friday as a warm front
and it will stall out nearby or just to our north Saturday
through Saturday night. Times of rain are likely along with
subvfr CIGS vsbys ahead of the boundary Friday. In
fact... Ifr subifr conditions are likely during this time. Subvfr
conditions are likely Friday night and possible Saturday
depending on how far north the boundary makes it. Uncertainty in
the position of the boundary remains high at this time.

Marine
Southerly flow will increase by this afternoon and a small
craft advisory is in effect. With warm air temperatures
expected over considerably cooler waters, the strongest gusts
will likely be observed along the shorelines. The same situation
will occur Wednesday and a SCA is in effect. Additional small
craft advisories may become necessary on Thursday as well as
northerly winds increase behind a cold front.

A warm front will approach the waters from the south Friday and
it will stall out nearby later Friday night through Saturday
night. Confidence on where the boundary sets up remains low at
this time. If the boundary sets up to the north... Then SCA wind
gusts are possible in the warm sector. However... The boundary
may remain just to the south as well which would mean lighter
winds but extended low clouds fog. Times of rain are likely
regardless of the frontal postion Friday through Saturday night.

Climate
Some all-time february highest minimum temp records could be in
jeopardy, but it depends on how quickly a cold front moves
through Wednesday night.

If the Wednesday calendar day low does not drop below 60
degrees, it would be the first time not dropping below 60 at
dca in february since 1891, and only the sixth time on record in
the entire meteorological winter season. Even a low 56 or
higher at dca would be the warmest low in the month of february
since 1976.

The all-time february highest minimums are:
61 at dca washington (2 17 1891)
58 at bwi baltimore (2 17 1891)
55 at iad dulles (2 17 1976)
- records only go back to 1960 at iad
it almost GOES without saying that daily records are in jeopardy. A
table of those records follows:
record warm daily maximum temperatures
tue 2 20 Wed 2 21
dca 76 (1930) 75 (1953)
bwi 76 (1930) 74 (1930)
iad 70 (1971) 70 (1997)
record warm daily minimum temperatures
tue 2 20 Wed 2 21
dca 59 (1939) 51 (1954)
bwi 57 (1939) 49 (1981)
iad 46 (1981) 45 (1981)

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.Record warmth is possible behind the warm front later today
through Wednesdayva... None. Wv... None. Marine... Small craft
advisory until 8 pm est this evening for anz530>543. Small craft
advisory from 9 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for anz530>543.

Synopsis... Bjl rcm
near term... Mm
short term... Mm
long term... Bjl
aviation... Bjl mm
marine... Bjl mm
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 2 mi47 min SW 13 G 16 55°F 42°F1030 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 5 mi47 min SW 13 G 18 57°F 1030.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi35 min SSW 12 G 14 49°F 39°F1 ft1030.8 hPa (+1.4)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 16 mi47 min WSW 6 G 8
44042 - Potomac, MD 23 mi35 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 50°F 43°F1 ft1030.3 hPa (+0.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 23 mi47 min SSW 13 G 14 52°F 46°F1031.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi47 min 59°F 43°F1030.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 25 mi47 min WSW 11 G 14 58°F 44°F1030.8 hPa
NCDV2 32 mi47 min SW 11 G 17 60°F 43°F1028.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 38 mi35 min S 8.9 G 9.9 51°F 38°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi47 min 63°F 1027.8 hPa
CPVM2 45 mi47 min 46°F 46°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi47 min S 8 G 8 53°F 43°F1029 hPa

Wind History for Solomons Island, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD5 mi1.7 hrsSW 8 G 1710.00 miOvercast57°F57°F100%1030.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD6 mi58 minSSW 75.00 miOvercast55°F55°F100%1030.8 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD14 mi1.7 hrsN 04.00 miOvercast with Haze55°F39°F55%1030.4 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SE65--SE4SE3CalmSE3E3SE43E3S7SW6SW5SW8SW7SW9SW11
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1 day agoNW11N13
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N6NE8NE8SE5NE5NE3CalmSE3SE6SE7SE5SE7SE7SE8SE7SE9SE5SE5S6S7S5S7
2 days agoSE10SE6SE7S4CalmE3NE12N9NE3N4CalmW3W5W4SW3W8W8W10W5W5W4W3NW6NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Drum Point, Maryland
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Drum Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:45 AM EST     1.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:07 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:06 PM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:17 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.20.60.91.11.110.70.50.20-0.1-00.20.40.711.110.80.50.2-0.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Tue -- 12:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:19 AM EST     0.51 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:48 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:34 PM EST     0.33 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:45 PM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:44 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.30.50.50.30-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.200.30.30.2-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.