Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairview Beach, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:21PM Monday October 23, 2017 9:52 PM EDT (01:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:51AMMoonset 8:08PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 836 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.gale warning in effect until 8 am edt Tuesday...
Tonight..S winds 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt...increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely early this evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt early in the morning. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 836 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight, followed by a secondary cold front Wednesday. High pressure will return late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairview Beach, VA
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location: 38.36, -77.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 240101
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
901 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the area late tonight
and push east of the chesapeake bay Tuesday morning. High
pressure will gradually build across the region during the
second half of the week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Frontal boundary resides from ohio through khts to western south
carolina at this time. A line of thunderstorms continue just
east of this axis, near a plume of favorable moisture (dewpoints
in the 60s). Winds aloft will become increasingly favorable as
well, with a low level jet of 50-60 kt centered around 5000 ft.

Winds of 40 kt likely reach down to 1000 ft or so... Without any
mixing. Given these kinematics, shear profiles exceptionally
favorable. Instability, on the other hand, meager. It remains to
be seen how effectively severe gusts will mix. Its been good in
southwest virginia, but with the loss of daytime heating, that
trend should decrease. Have a tornado watch for nelson augusta
counties, where the threat the best.

That leaves the synoptic wind threat. Am quite concerned about
the ridges, and have issued a wind advisory for that. There will
be a certain amount of vertical transport in just showers. Am
uncertain of what the magic formula will be, but included
counties with several hundred feet elevation in the advisory.

That ended up as roughly i-95 west. The time fram of wind
concern roughly now through midnight or 06z along west of the
blue ridge. By midnight, the low level jet will spread east to
include the i-95 corridor, lasting until sunrise or just before.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
Cdfnt will push east of the bay by 12z with showers ending.

Still mild under westerly flow. Upper trough axis crosses the
area Wed (gfs) or Wed night (ecmwf) with temps staying in the
60s during the day and 40s at night. Any precip would be
confined to the upslope areas.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Troughing will remain entrenched over the eastern CONUS through the
period as ridging persists out west and over the north atlantic.

This will lead to near normal temperatures late this week into the
weekend. A spoke of energy will rotate around an upper low stationed
just southwest of james bay likely bringing another period of
unsettled weather at some point next weekend, but timing placement
details remain fuzzy this far out.

Aviation 01z Tuesday through Saturday
Shallow line of convection will move across terminals tonight
first at kcho between 01z-03z and then across the rest of the
terminals between 03z-09z. MVFR CIGS and wind gusts to 45-50 kt
can be expected with this line of showers.

MainlyVFR expected late in the week with light flow.

Marine
Winds are expected to strengthen rapidly tonight in response to
strengthening low-level jet. Main channel of the bay and lower
potomac should experience gale force winds easily while the
upper bay and upper potomac the winds will depend more on
strength intensity of convection. Think there could be a 3-hr
period where they also experience brief gales, so raised the
gale warning everywhere. Convective line moves east of the bay
by 15z Tue at the latest with winds diminishing and showers
ending. Smws may also be required later tonight.

Light flow with high pressure over the waters thu-fri.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels have increased with the incoming tide up the
chesapeake bay. Departures have risen to around 1 ft, which
would be problematic for baltimore city county. Have added them
to the advisory for tonight's tide cycle. Uncertainty as to how
much surge will reach havre de grace remains (estofs output
overdone) so have kept peak tide under advisory levels. The
margin of error straddles that threshold.

An advisory remains in effect for annapolis tomorrow. Would not
rule out other sites as well. (snap-ex suggests baltimore should
be included.) however, there is copious uncertainty as well.

Hopefully we will work some of those issues out once the current
tide cycle passes.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for dcz001.

Md... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for mdz003>006-011-
503>508.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 pm edt Tuesday for mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for mdz011.

Va... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for vaz026>031-037>040-
050>056-501-502-505>508.

Wv... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for wvz050>053-055.

Marine... Gale warning until 8 am edt Tuesday for anz530>533-535>542.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
anz530>533-537>542.

Gale warning until 3 pm edt Tuesday for anz534-543.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Hts
short term... Lfr
long term... Dfh
aviation... Lfr hts dfh
marine... Lfr dfh
tides coastal flooding... Hts dfh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 12 mi53 min SE 9.9 G 13 71°F 69°F1010.6 hPa (-2.1)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 37 mi53 min SE 9.9 G 14 73°F 67°F1011.6 hPa (-2.2)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 41 mi83 min ESE 13 69°F 1012 hPa64°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi131 min SSE 21 G 24
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi53 min SSE 18 G 23 71°F 70°F1012.1 hPa (-2.2)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi43 min S 23 G 27 72°F 3 ft1012.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 46 mi53 min SSE 24 G 29 71°F 1012.7 hPa (-2.6)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 49 mi53 min S 20 G 27 73°F 68°F1011.4 hPa (-2.9)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA11 mi78 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F66°F87%1012.9 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi1.9 hrsSSE 1710.00 miOvercast73°F66°F79%1011.8 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA12 mi78 minSSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F66°F81%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE4SE7
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3CalmSE5SE5E6E8E6CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E4SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Maryland Point Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:22 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:01 AM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:05 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.10.10.30.60.91.11.21.10.80.60.30.20.10.20.40.711.21.31.210.8

Tide / Current Tables for Riverside, Potomac River, Maryland
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Riverside
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:41 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:24 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.10.30.60.91.21.31.41.20.80.50.30.10.20.30.611.31.51.51.310.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.