Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elliott, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:13PM Monday May 21, 2018 11:13 AM EDT (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 12:24AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1032 Am Edt Mon May 21 2018
Rest of today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will stall to the south and west of the waters through tonight before returning north as a warm front Tuesday. A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and high pressure will build overhead Thursday. High pressure will move offshore Friday through the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elliott, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211456
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1056 am edt Mon may 21 2018

Synopsis
A weak frontal boundary slips south across most of the area
early this morning, then stalls over southern virginia this
afternoon. The front lifts back north as a warm front late
tonight into Tuesday. A more pronounced cold front will cross
the region on Wednesday, followed by a period of dry weather
Thursday and Friday under the influence of high pressure.

Near term until 10 pm this evening
As of 1055 am edt Monday...

latest surface analysis shows a weak frontal boundary just north
of the va nc border with very weak flow aloft. This boundary is
expected to serve as the focus for shower thunderstorm
development this afternoon into early this evening. Latest cams
guidance suggest that the rainfall could become heavy as any
storms will be slow to move with forecast mbe vectors generally
less than 5 kt out of the west. As such, have mentioned heavy
rain in the forecast for NE nc and far southside va. Luckily,
this area did not see nearly as much rainfall late last week, so
they should be able to handle some heavy rainfall today.

However, if the storms become stationary, they will drop very
heavy rainfall given the preciptable water values of 1.75
inches this afternoon this evening.

Otherwise, will continue with tapering pops to the north of the
boundary, with areas north of i-64 not seeing much, if any
precipitation today tonight.

Previous discussion below:
latest analysis indicates a weak sfc cold front now through the
md eastern shore, situated from central va to the va eastern
shore. Flow aloft is rather light and from the W to wsw with
weak upper trough over the gulf of mexico and ridging well off
the SE us coast. Thus, the front will struggle to move south of
the region today and is progged to stall across south central
va. As is typical W the fronts, it should buckle farther south
along the coast and shift the winds to the NE across hampton
roads. High res models depict quite a bit of QPF over interior
se va and NE nc from mid morning into the aftn, even as
instability parameters weaken due to the onshore NE flow. Have
raised pops to high chance to during this period, gradually
shifting the highest pops to south central va and interior NE nc
during the aftn. Meanwhile, should be a sharp cutoff in pops to
the N of these zones, going dry over the N NE and only about a
20% pop this aftn for richmond and norfolk. Highs today will avg
in the lower 80s interior va, to the 70s along the coast and
over NE nc.

Upper low to the S moves east and winds aloft shift to the sw
overnight. Models have backed off on deep lift and moisture, but
still will maintain 30-40% pops most areas as the front drifts
ne slowly. Lows in the upper 50s ERN shore to the mid 60s S sw.

Short term 10 pm this evening through Wednesday night
As of 355 am edt Monday...

sfc high pres off the SE CONUS coast remains in control tue
while lo pres and its accompanying cold front tracks through the
midwest-oh valley. Vrb clouds-partly sunny Tue W mainly
diurnal pops (20-50%) (tue) ahead of that system, but pops have
will be highest later in the day nnw locations. Highs Tue from
the m-u70s at the coast to 80-85f inland.

A more pronounced cold front crosses the area (late) Tue night
through Wed accompanied by sct to numerous shras tstms. Will
have pops mainly 30-60%... W highs from the upper 70s-lower 80s at
the coast to the mid 80s inland. Could be a scenario with an area
of showers W only embedded tstms early in the day with the
wind shift, followed by storms then regenerating during the
heat of the day in mid late aftn with additional energy provided
by a shortwave pushing through wnw flow aloft. Drying from the
nw to SE after sunset Wed with mainly dry conditions all areas
after midnight as airmass turns much drier. Lows Wed night in
the upper 50s lower 60s N to the mid upper 60s s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm edt Sunday...

any lingering showers t-storms move south of the area by Thursday
morning as a cold front passes through va and nc. Behind the
cold front, sfc high pressure settles into the mid-atlantic
region thu-fri. This will give us a short break from the rain.

Moisture starts to stream northward next weekend as southerly
flow returns to the region. Therefore, rain is in the forecast
from Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the weekend.

Expect isolated-scattered afternoon showers t-storms on
Saturday with more widespread showers t-storms returning Sunday
through memorial day. Currently have slight chc pops Sat pm-sun
am with pops increasing to ~40% Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Highs in the low 80s inland upper 70s in coastal areas on Thursday.

Warmer with highs in the mid-upper 80s expected Friday through
Sunday. Lows in the low-mid 60s on Fri Sat morning increasing to ~70
on Sun Mon am.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
As of 755 am edt Monday...

a weak front is now pushing through central and SE va with patchy
ifr MVFR stratus and MVFR vsbys through about 15z at korf kphf.

The front becomes located from the va piedmont to NE nc by aftn.

Chance for showers by this aftn evening are 30-40% for kecg,
~20% for kric kphf korf, and <10% for sby. Tstms look rather
unlikely through 00z given the onshore flow but there is a
slight chance at kecg and along west of i-95 including kric. The
boundary returns N as a warm front across the local area late
tonight early Tuesday with a potential for showers and isolated
tstms (pop 20-50%) though did not include this in tafs yet. Cigs
look to lower overnight and flight restrictions are in the tafs
from 06-12z.

Aftn evening showers tstms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

A moist airmass will remain over the region and a potential will
exist for patchy early morning fog and or stratus. High
pressure looks to build in from the N by Thursday and Friday
bringing mainlyVFR conditions during the end of the week.

Marine
As of 420 am edt Monday...

no headlines in the short term today thru Tue night. A weak
frontal boundary will drop south into the NE nc waters during
today. Winds will become NE or E arnd 10 kt or less over the
waters behind the boundary. Seas will range fm 2 to 4 ft and
waves 1 to 2 ft during today. The boundary will lift back north
as a warm front tonight thru Tue morning, with the winds turning
fm SE to S or sw. Expect SW winds 5-15 kt Tue night, then W or
sw Wed into Wed evening, before shifting to the NW then N wed
night into Thu morning, as a cold front drops thru the region.

Winds and waves seas are still expected to remain below small
craft advisory criteria thru much of the week.

Hydrology
As of 420 am edt Monday...

flood warnings continue for the james and appomattox river
basins. Warnings also continue for the meherrin and nottoway
rivers (at stony creek), as well as portions of the chowan
basin. Additional flood warnings continue for the chickahominy,
south anna and mattaponi rivers, as well as the pocomoke river
in md. See flwakq or flsakq for more details.

Climate
As of 355 am edt Monday...

* ric monthly rainfall total through 5 20 remains at 8.84"
(already ranks as 5th wettest may on record). (precipitation
records date back to 1880)
* sby monthly rainfall total through 5 20 is now 8.52" (already
ranks as 3rd wettest may on record). (precipitation records
date back to 1906)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Mrd lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Eri
aviation... Lkb
marine... Tmg
hydrology... Akq
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 12 mi44 min ENE 5.1 G 8 73°F 73°F1022.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 13 mi44 min 72°F 72°F1023.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 19 mi44 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 1023.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi44 min ESE 5.1 G 6 71°F 69°F1022.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi34 min NE 7.8 G 7.8 69°F 1023.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 30 mi34 min NE 19 70°F 1022 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi44 min ESE 7 G 8
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 36 mi44 min E 7 G 8.9 70°F 73°F1022.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi74 min N 9.9 G 11 67°F 66°F1023.8 hPa (+1.2)59°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi104 min ENE 5.1 68°F 1023 hPa57°F
CPVM2 46 mi44 min 68°F 61°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi34 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 1023.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 48 mi44 min 1022.6 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 49 mi50 min E 7 G 11 67°F 67°F1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD10 mi39 minNE 710.00 miFair73°F57°F57%1022.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi82 minE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F60°F58%1022.2 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW12W10SW10SW12
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SW7SW6SW5SW3SW6SW8SW7SW7N6NW4N8N10NE7NE7NE7NE10E8E7
1 day agoS66SE7SW8
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2 days ago--E9E14E15E15
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E13E12E13E12E10E9E8E8E5Calm--

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Fishing Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:47 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:37 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.100.30.91.62.32.72.82.62.11.50.90.4000.30.91.62.22.52.42.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:20 AM EDT     -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.65 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:08 PM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:05 PM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.20.10.30.60.60.60.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.