Sunday, April23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elliott, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:48PM Sunday April 23, 2017 1:35 AM EDT (05:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:44AMMoonset 3:41PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1032 Pm Edt Sat Apr 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Sat Apr 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will remain stalled south of the waters through Tuesday. A series of low pressure systems will ride along the boundary. High pressure will briefly return for Wednesday. A cold front may impact the waters Thursday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for portions the waters Monday through Tuesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elliott, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230207
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1007 pm edt Sat apr 22 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary across the carolinas
tonight and Sunday. Low pressure will slowly track along the
southeast coast Sunday and Monday, then linger off the mid atlantic
coast through mid week. This system will bring periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall to the region.

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/
Much of the initial ra has exited the coast. Lingering sct shras
remain attm... And will remain so until the next area from sw
va-ne tn arrives later on tonight. Otherwise... Cool and cloudy
through the overnight. NE winds remaining gusty to 20-30
mph... Highest INVOF coast. Lows in the u40s nnw to the m50s se.

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday/
A cloudy and wet period ahead with periods of mdt to hvy rainfall.

Qpf btwn 1.5 to 3.5 inches (highest across the piedmont).

Models in general agreement that a cut-off upr level low tracks se
across the lwr mid atlantic region tonight and Sunday. System then
takes on a neg tilt that spawns a coastal low off the SE coast
Monday. This system get cut off from the main upr lvl flow which
allows it to spin over the warm gulf stream waters Monday and
Tuesday before slowly lifting NE Wednesday. Upshot will be for
mainly cloudy skies with periods of mdt to lclly hvy rainfall
through the period as copious amounts of deep atlantic moisture gets
entrained and rotates around the system. Thus, confidence high
enough to go with likely to categorical pops each period. First shot
of mdt to hvy rainfall will be Sunday, second one Sunday night and
Monday and possible a third one Monday night. NAM more agressive
than GFS with thunder chcs as the NAM actually brings the system
inland thus allowing a warm sector to develop along the sern coastal
areas. GFS keeps the system offshore. Thus, kept high pops but low
chc thunder given the model differences.

Highs Sun in the mid 50s to lwr 60s. Lows Sun nite in the upr 40s-
mid 50s. Highs Mon in the mid 50s-mid 60s except 65-70 sern coastal
areas. Lows Mon nite in the upr 40s-lwr 60s. Highs Tue in the lwr
60s-lwr 70s.

Hydro wise, no flood headlines anticipated ATTM with numerous breaks
in between bouts of rain expected. Do expect some healthy rises in
local river by early next week, especially if the heavy rainfall
falls over the headwaters. Given the forecasted QPF and after coord
with the rfc, expect minor flooding at lawrenceville on the meherrin
river by tue. Again, this based on QPF so plenty of time to adjust
if needed.

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/
Long term period will feature a trend towards drier and warmer
conditions. For Tue night, mid-level cutoff low and associated
sfc low start to progress offshore, with some pcpn psbl on the
backside of the systm. Pops range from 20-40%. Warming trend
then commences for Wed as deep swly flow develops across the
eastern seaboard, lasting through the end of the week with temps
in the 70s Wed reaching the 80s most areas Thu and fri.

Aviation /02z Sunday through Thursday/
As of 00z... An east to west oriented cold front was situated in
north carolina just to the south of the forecast area. North to
northeast winds and widespread ifr ceilings were present in and
around the TAF sites. The forecast calls for slow improvement for
northern portions including sby with generally ifr elsewhere during
the 00z TAF period. The ifr will be mainly due to low ceilings but
ifr visibility can be expected during heavier rain. Confidence in
details is moderate with indication that temporary improvement may
occur from time to time. This will be difficult to pin down time and
location wise.

Current radar imagery shows thunderstorms moving off the southeast
va and northeast nc coast with areas of light to moderate rain
elsewhere. Precipitation will increase during the TAF period as low
pressure moves eastward along the front into the carolinas Sunday.

Northeast winds will prevail during the period. These winds will
occasionally gust to around 20 to 25 knots southeast portions at orf
and ecg.

Outlook... A well organized low pressure system will linger just off
the carolina coast from Sunday night into early this coming week.

Unsettled weather continues into Tuesday with widespread
precipitation and degraded aviation conditions. Current forecasts
have the low moving off to the northeast Wednesday with a high
pressure ridge building into the southeast states from the atlantic.

Wednesday through Friday are expected to be dry and mainlyVFR.

Marine
Surface analysis and radar imagery depict the cold front south of
the chesapeake bay and approaching the va/nc border at 330 pm edt.

The front will continue moving to south of the waters this evening.

Winds north of the boundary were from the north and northeast.

Low pressure over the tennessee valley will slide eastward into the
carolinas Sunday and deepen off the carolina coast Sunday night and
Monday. Northeast winds will increase with seas increasing through
Monday.

Sca is in effect for the chesapeake bay and currituck sound and the
coastal waters south of parramore island. The SCA expands into the
lower james river and the coastal waters north of parramore island
at 10z (6 am edt). The SCA expires late Sunday morning north of new
point comfort.

Low pressure lingers off the coast through Tuesday. Current
headlines run through Sunday night most of the area and especially
the coastal waters but will likely be needed into Tuesday or
Wednesday. Winds will generally run 20 to 25 knots with seas
building to at least 6 to 8 feet due to prolonged northeast
flow.

Tides/coastal flooding
An extended period of onshore flow will result in increasing
tidal departures thru mid week. Tidal departures will reach +1
to 1.5 feet through Sunday night along the atlantic coast and in
the lower chesapeake bay and james river. Northeast flow
increases Monday, with tidal departures of 1.5 to 2 feet. Minor
flooding is expected Monday night thru Tuesday during high tide.

Flow becomes offshore Wednesday.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for anz632-634-638-
654-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Sunday for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Sunday for anz630-631.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Sunday to 6 am edt Monday for
anz650-652.

Synopsis... Alb/mpr
near term... Alb
short term... Mpr
long term... Mas
aviation... Lsa
marine... Mas/lsa
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 12 mi48 min N 8.9 G 12 54°F 63°F1016.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 13 mi48 min N 8 G 8.9 54°F 65°F1016.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 19 mi48 min NE 9.9 G 13 55°F 1017 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi48 min N 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 62°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi36 min NE 12 G 14 56°F 54°F1 ft1017.6 hPa (+1.0)
44042 - Potomac, MD 30 mi36 min NNE 14 G 19 56°F 62°F1 ft1015.6 hPa (+0.8)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi48 min NNE 5.1 G 6
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 36 mi48 min NNE 8.9 G 13 55°F 64°F1016.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi36 min NW 7 G 8 52°F 59°F50°F
CPVM2 46 mi48 min 55°F 50°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi36 min N 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 60°F1017.2 hPa (+0.9)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 48 mi48 min 52°F 1016.9 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 49 mi48 min NE 4.1 G 6 52°F 56°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD10 mi56 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast54°F50°F88%1016.6 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi44 minNE 910.00 miOvercast54°F52°F93%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE7NE5NE7E5NE7N8NE10NE9NE9NE6N7N10NE10NE12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW6SW8NW4CalmNW4W5SE5E7SE7E6SE9SE9SE10SE8SE6E7S6SE7SE11CalmE4
2 days agoSW5SW3SW5SW7SW6W11SW11W10NW8SW7W74E8SE10SE12SE12SE10SE9S5S6S6S5S3S5

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Fishing Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:17 PM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:56 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.52.11.610.50.20.20.61.21.82.42.72.62.31.81.20.60.20.10.30.91.62.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:55 AM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.50 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.50.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.50.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.