Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:23PM Monday May 29, 2017 7:20 AM EDT (11:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:49AMMoonset 11:13PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 432 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Rest of the overnight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will move toward the waters this afternoon...but stall and weaken by tonight. Another weak front will approach late Tuesday...also stalling and weakening. A third cold front will finally push through Wednesday night, with high pressure following on Thursday. A warm front will lift northward on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake Ranch Estates CDP, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 290808
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
408 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
Upper level low pressure will drift east across the north side
of the great lakes this week. In the meantime, weak high
pressure will prevail over the mid atlantic outside of weak
cold frontal passages Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Low
pressure approaches from the west this weekend.

Near term through tonight
Early this morning, low pressure centers are located near the
great lakes and east of the delmarva. A warm front links the two
lows but curves south of the lwx cwa. Thus most of the area is
locked in a stable marine layer of low clouds, fog and drizzle.

Some observations have briefly hit 1 4 mile, so will have to
keep an eye on dense fog advisory potential, but on the whole,
this is more of a low stratus situation.

A cold front trailing the low to our west will push eastward
today, overtaking the stalled warm front. This front will act to
scour out the low clouds through the morning hours, but perhaps
taking until early afternoon in the baltimore area. With the
low offshore and high pressure remaining to the northeast, it is
looking like the front will get hung up around the chesapeake
bay this afternoon. A temperature (as well as cloud) gradient
will be in place across northeast md... And have thus shaved
highs several degrees east of baltimore. Elsewhere, highs should
surge into the 80s. In addition, the frontal convergence zone
may spark a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across the
eastern quarter of the area.

The front becomes more nebulous tonight, drifting to the south.

Onshore flow will be re-introduced, bring a return of lower
clouds, especially the northeastern quadrant of the area. Fog
and reduced visibility will be possible, whether due to low
clouds (east) or radiational cooling of the moist airmass
(west). Low pressure will develop along the frontal zone to our
south, which could bring a shower threat to the far southeast,
but otherwise dry. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Upper level low pressure will continue to spin over ontario
Tuesday and Wednesday with the jet stream located just to our
northwest. Surface features will continue to be less defined
though, as weak fronts (more pressure troughs than huge airmass
differences) waver across the region.

The first will push southeast on Tuesday afternoon. With low
stratus to start the day, it is uncertain how quickly and how
far east it will erode. West of the marine air, modest
instability will develop. Deep layer shear increases in
magnitude with northward extent. Thus there is some risk of
strong gusty thunderstorms developing ahead of the front. Spc
has placed northern parts of the area in a marginal risk.

This front will lose its definition as it slips southward
Tuesday night, ending the chance for showers. A final and
slightly more well- defined front will push south Wednesday
afternoon and evening. While low level convergence isn't great,
some scattered showers and storms will still develop along the
front. The front will align better with diurnal heating to our
west, so expect a decreasing trend for any storms that enter the
area. Once again though, deep layer shear will be strong, so
any organized storms could have a gusty wind threat. A marginal
risk is in place for the northwestern half of the area.

Highs both days will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s
and 60s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Canadian high pressure will dominate Thursday as a trough
passes aloft. Warm air will begin returning northward on Friday,
but by Saturday the next cold front is already dropping back
south across the region as another trough rotates around the
stalled upper low over southern canada. That front looks to
stall south of the region by Sunday as the upper low starts
moving further east, with the front perhaps lifting back north
as a warm front early next week. We will have a chance of
showers and thunderstorms with the front dropping south across
the area late Friday into Saturday. By Sunday, with the
potential for the front to stall south of us, the weather is
uncertain, but if high pressure builds in strongly enough from
the north, it could be dry. Temperatures will mostly be cooler
than normal, with the warmest day likely Friday.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Ifr lifr conditions through daybreak with an onshore flow. How
quickly CIGS lift this morning will depend if the warm front is
able to lift north, or if cold frontal passage will be required
to mix out the clouds. Regardless, improved conditions are
likely by early afternoon, except perhaps near mtn where the
front may become hung up. A few showers may redevelop around
baltimore this afternoon, but not enough coverage to put in the
taf.

The front will not have a lasting effect though, with onshore
flow redeveloping tonight. Low MVFR or ifr likely in baltimore
area, and possible at the rest of the terminals except cho. It's
uncertain how quickly these clouds will erode on Tuesday as
well. Where they do, thunderstorms will be possible during the
afternoon and evening as the next boundary drops southeast.

It's possible the low cloud pattern repeats Tuesday night as
the front washes out. A more well-defined cold front will push
through late Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible.

MainlyVFR later this week with high pressure returning.

Thunderstorm chances are maximized late Friday into staturday
with a passing front.

Marine
Overall light flow is expected on the waters through Wednesday.

Expect variable wind directions as weak boundaries waffle
across the area, though onshore flow may persist more often than
not until a more defined cold front passes through Wednesday
night. With the frontal passage after sunset, am not thinking
strong winds will be found in its wake. Also can't completely
rule out a few thunderstorms each day, mainly focused in the
afternoon and evening, although it's uncertain how many reach
the waters at this time.

Sub-sca winds expected later this week. Thunderstorm chances
increase late Friday with an approaching front.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels remain high and should continue above normal for
the next few cycles due to the persistent onshore flow. Likely
to continue reaching minor flood at many sites and advisories
remain out into early this afternoon. Guidance also suggests
advisories will need to get extended or reissued for the next
cycles late tonight and tomorrow. After Tuesday, northerly flow
may finally allow anomalies to start falling.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
dcz001.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for
mdz014-018.

Coastal flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for mdz017.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz054.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Rcm
aviation... Ads rcm
marine... Ads rcm
tides coastal flooding... Rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 1 mi50 min NNE 8.9 G 12 64°F 1010.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 6 mi50 min N 4.1 G 6 64°F 68°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi40 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 1010.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi50 min NNE 4.1 G 4.1
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi50 min 63°F 70°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 22 mi50 min NNE 5.1 G 8 64°F 70°F1009.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi40 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 1008.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 28 mi50 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 70°F1009.6 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi50 min NW 1 G 1.9 65°F 70°F1009.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi80 min NNE 7 G 8 62°F 65°F
44063 - Annapolis 40 mi40 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 63°F 1010.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi50 min 63°F 1009.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi50 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 63°F 67°F1009.9 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD7 mi28 minN 410.00 miOvercast64°F64°F100%1010 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD9 mi27 minN 010.00 miOvercast63°F60°F94%1010.8 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi27 minN 010.00 miOvercast66°F64°F96%1009.8 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi30 minVar 47.00 miOvercast63°F60°F94%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E8E7SE8SE7E7SE9SE3S4E4E9NE5E3E5NE4NE7NE6NE7NE6NE4N5NW8NW6N3
1 day agoCalmCalm3SE4SE8SE9SE11SE8SE9E8SE7E8E6NE3NE5NE4S3E3E7E8SE7SE5E8SE6
2 days agoSW9W15W12W15
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W16W11NW8W7NW5CalmCalmNW3W3W4W4SW6W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:12 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.711.31.61.71.61.41.10.80.60.40.30.30.50.70.91.11.110.80.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:55 PM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.50.80.80.70.50.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.