Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:51PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:35 PM EST (02:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:47AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 831 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Friday...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt early this evening. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely or areas of drizzle. Areas of fog early this evening. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of fog.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 831 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will remain stalled to the south through the end of the week before gradually returning north as a warm front during the weekend. A cold front will push east across the area on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake Ranch Estates CDP, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 230157 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
857 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis A front will remain nearly stationary across
southern virginia through tonight, then begin to move northward
as a warm front on Friday before stalling again across the area
on Saturday. A stronger cold front will clear the area on
Sunday. High pressure builds over the region for the early part
of next week.

Near term through Friday
Front continues to push south this evening and is now located
along the nc va border. Thin line of showers and gusty winds
that crossed the area earlier has pretty much exited the fcst
area. Overnight, it doesn't appear there will be much forcing to
generate precip with drizzle likely to be the main p-type due
low level convergence and upslope component, although some
higher thicker clouds are seen west of the appalachians moving
eastward that could result in more rain than drizzle at times.

Question is what to do with winter wx advisory over the far nw.

Currently 2g4 is the only site AOB below freezing with basically
all guidance except NAM keeping temps abv freezing. Model trends
show temps slowly rising overnight with any ice accumulation
looking marginal at best. Any ice would probably occur on
elevated surfaces and not on road surfaces. Will continue to
monitor obs, but it is likely that the advzy will be cancelled
early especially for western mineral and grant counties where
there are no obs showing sub-freezing air.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
A warm front will shift along our northern zones as an area of low
pressure connects to its western end and moves east Friday night.

While the rain chances decrease in our southern zones, we will
still hang on to rain chances in our northern zones as the low
pressure slides to our east.

High pressure will swing across new england Saturday into Saturday
night. An affiliated cold front with the low pressure will also
stall. Temps in the 40s and 50s are expected Saturday on the cool
side of the front but temps in the 60s and perhaps 70s are expected
on the warm side of the front. Shortwave energy will also pass
through the area... Bringing the chances for showers. The best
chance for rain will be along and north of the front.

The stationary front will be in place into Saturday night. Showers
are possible with min temps ranging from the 40s north and east of
the front to the 50s and perhaps lower 60s south of the front.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
A low pressure system will be moving northeast from the great lakes
on Sunday while its associated warm front lifts north away from our
region. A cold front will then move through on Sunday afternoon
allowing for some showers... Maybe a thunderstorm. The front will
then stall to our south on Monday, but it is unclear how close to
our CWA it will be... This may cause additional showers into Monday
for parts of our area.

A high pressure system will build on Monday into Monday night and be
overhead on Tuesday bringing dry conditions over our area. The high
pressure will then shift eastward over western atlantic waters as a
return flow settles over us. Guidance then disagrees on the
development of a low pressure system over the western gulf states
and its associated boundary. The euro keeps Wednesday conditions
dry, while gfs GEFS are bringing showers over us as early as
Wednesday afternoon as this boundary and the low pressure system
approaches us and continue into Thursday.

Temperatures will be around 20 degrees above normal on Sunday, with
high temperatures reaching the 60s and 70s. Then high temperatures
will be mainly in the 50s maybe 60s, with 40s at higher elevations
for the rest of the period.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
MVFR CIGS being observed at eastern terminals will gradually
lower to ifr category overnight and remain like that through fri
and likely through the weekend. Expect also periods of light
rain or drizzle.

The front may lift further north Saturday and Saturday night. Most
terminals should still be on the cool side of the boundary which
means more low clouds along with areas of fog... Light rain and
drizzle. Perhaps kcho will have improving conditions with the
boundary setting up just to their north.

Sub-vfr conditions possible Sunday with a frontal boundary affecting
our area.VFR conditions should return on Monday into Tuesday with
high pressure building over us.

Marine
North to northeast winds will persist through tonight with winds
expected to gradually decrease overnight. A small craft
advisory remains in effect for maryland chesapeake bay and lower
tidal potomac river through tonight.

The front will likely remain to the south through Saturday
night. As of now... It appears that the gradient will be light
enough for winds to remain below SCA criteria.

On Sunday the winds will be on the increase and come close to
criteria, so it should be monitored in case a SCA is needed. Winds
will decrease on Sunday night and remain below criteria into Tuesday.

Climate
From Wednesday february 21st the following records were broken.

For iad: a monthly record high minimum temperature of 59
degrees occurred. This breaks the old record of 55 degrees set
on february 17th 1976. The high of 80 degrees was also a monthly
record, breaking the old record of 79 degrees set on february
24th 1985 and february 25th 2000.

For dca: a daily record high minimum temperature of 56 degrees
occurred. This breaks the old record of 51 degrees set in 1954.

The high of 82 degrees was also a daily record, breaking the
old record of 75 degrees set in 1953.

For bwi: a daily record high minimum temperature of 52 degrees
occurred. This breaks the old record of 49 degrees set in 1981.

The high of 79 degrees was also a daily record, breaking the
old record of 74 degrees set in 1930.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Winter weather advisory until 8 am est Friday for mdz501.

Va... None.

Wv... Winter weather advisory until 8 am est Friday for wvz501-503.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz530>532-
538>540.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Friday for anz533-534-537-
541>543.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm est this evening for anz535-
536.

Synopsis... Klw
near term... Lfr
short term... Klw
long term... Imr
aviation... Imr klw
marine... Imr klw
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 1 mi48 min ENE 11 G 12 42°F 1035.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 6 mi48 min NE 9.9 G 13 43°F 43°F1034.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi36 min E 14 G 16 43°F 42°F2 ft1032.1 hPa (-2.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi48 min E 6 G 8.9
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi48 min 43°F 48°F1035.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 22 mi48 min ENE 14 G 18 44°F 50°F1034.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi36 min WSW 14 G 18 42°F 41°F1 ft1033.6 hPa (+1.6)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 28 mi48 min E 15 G 17 44°F 48°F1034.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi126 min NE 5.1 42°F 1035 hPa40°F
NCDV2 34 mi48 min NE 1 G 6 45°F 49°F1033.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi36 min E 11 G 13 42°F 42°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi48 min 42°F 1035.5 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi48 min 42°F 40°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi48 min ENE 6 G 8.9 44°F 47°F1035.7 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD7 mi44 minENE 95.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist44°F43°F96%1034.6 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD9 mi59 minN 010.00 miOvercast43°F42°F100%1035.2 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi1.7 hrsNE 94.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F97%1034 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi61 minNE 103.00 miFog/Mist43°F41°F93%1034.9 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW9SW8SW4E4CalmNE3NW7NW6N4NE5NE5E10E11E9E8E7NE7NE9N13N15NE12NE11E9
1 day agoSE633CalmSW10SW8S5S7SW8S6SW9SW12
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2 days agoE3S7SW6SW5SW8SW7SW9SW11
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SW12--SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:34 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     0.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:57 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:26 PM EST     0.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.40.70.910.90.80.60.40.20.10.10.10.20.40.60.70.70.50.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EST     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:07 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:26 AM EST     0.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:11 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:35 PM EST     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:55 PM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.30.50.70.60.50.30-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.200.20.30.20.1-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.