Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday May 26, 2019 11:51 PM EDT (03:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:53AMMoonset 11:40AM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 1135 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
.severe Thunderstorm watch 258 in effect until 1 am edt Monday...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Numerous showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1135 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak boundary will remain stalled out near the waters through Monday. The front will then lift back north by Tuesday as high pressure off the southeastern united states coast regains control through the middle of the week. A weak cold front will stall out near the waters late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake Ranch Estates CDP, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 270134
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
934 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will settle southward across the area tonight,
stalling across the region on Monday before lifting northward
again Tuesday. Bermuda high pressure sets up toward the middle
portion of the week, resulting in hot and humid conditions over
much of the eastern united states.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Latest surface analysis indicates cold front across northern
maryland, marked by a line of showers and thunderstorms. The air
mass ahead (south) of this line has copious instability (2400
j kg mucape) and shear (45 kt effective bulk) per 00z lwx raob.

Consequently, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for
the warm unstable portion of the airmass. Conditions not as
primed for severe weather in the highlands shenandoah
valley central foothills, which is why the watch does not
extend west of martinsburg-culpeper in spite of vort supported
shower thunderstorm activity tracking east across west virginia.

Mesoscale guidance has been struggling to initialize properly
this evening. However, the most likely scenario will continue to
support congeal a line of thunderstorms pushing southeast toward
metro washington and eventually southern maryland. Given the
atmospheric conditions, numerous thunderstorms likely, with the
primary threat of damaging winds and a secondary threat of large
hail. The biggest mitigating factor will be nocturnal
stabilization (will these storms become elevated?). By midnight
or so, these showers storms should be pushing off southern
maryland, but would not rule out a lingering shower thunderstorm
therafter.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night
The surface front should generally be south of the area on
memorial day, limiting instability. A few showers and
thunderstorms could develop through the day in the deeper
frontal zone, but most of the recent guidance has very little
activity. Greater baltimore has the lowest chance of rain.

Clouds will probably outweigh sunshine for much of the day with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The weak boundary will start heading back north Monday night
and will move back north of most of the region on Tuesday.

Before that happens, however, another shortwave will bring a
round of late night early morning showers. Thunderstorms will
also be possible as steep mid-level lapse rates and instability
advect into the area. Time of day suggests there won't be a lot
of severe threat with this round, but will need to watch heavy
rain potential. After the front moves north, temps should rise
back close to 90 later in the day Tuesday, with plenty of
humidity. So there will likely be fairly large CAPE values with
moderate to strong shear. However, there may be some subsidence
in the wake of the shortwave, and better frontal forcing remains
to the north. At the moment, most guidance limits convective
activity across northern parts of the area and across pa. But
there could be an attendant severe threat. The proximity of any
frontal forcing will determine any convective threat Tuesday
night, but with the boundary likely to the north, have kept pops
low.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
For Wednesday and Thursday, high pressure both at the surface and
aloft will be centered over atlantic ocean into florida while a
boundary remains well to our north. A southwest flow will usher in
hot and humid conditions during this time.

A cold front will drop south into our region Thursday night and it
will stall out nearby through the weekend. At the same time, a weak
upper-level trough is expected to be overhead. This will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms along with seasonable
conditions.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
Showers thunderstorms will be crossing the terminals this
evening. Gusty winds a threat until nocturnal stabilization. A
this point, have best timing in metro baltimore washington til
04z, and between 02-05z for cho. At this point, forecasting MVFR
restrictions, but may be updating tafs if ifr seems apparent.

Patchy fog is possible after storms exit late tonight, though
clouds may be a limiting factor. Some low clouds aren't out of
the question either.

The front will be south of the area Monday, then lift back north
Tuesday. So Tuesday will have the greater threat of showers and
storms, and the highest chance may actually be in the morning.

Patchy nocturnal fog will remain possible at the outlying
terminals with otherwiseVFR prevailing.

Vfr conditions are expected most of the time Wednesday and Thursday.

A shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but much of the time
will be dry. A weak boundary will stall out nearby Friday, bring the
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Numerous showers thunderstorms will be threatening the waters
this evening. Gusty winds a concern, which will be covered by
marine warnings. Severe thunderstorm watch in effect til 1am.

Light winds likely to prevail through Monday and Tuesday as a
weak front meanders across the region. Main concern will be
potential special marine warnings due to thunderstorms, with
highest odds this afternoon through about 2 am tonight and again
on Tuesday.

High pressure to the south will control the weather pattern
for Wednesday and Thursday with south to southwest winds. Winds
should remain below SCA criteria for most of the time. A weak
boundary may impact the area late in the week.

Tides coastal flooding
Now that winds have taken a more westerly direction, anomalies
are decreasing, and should decrease further tonight when a cold
front moves to the south. The next few cycles should remain
below flood stage.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Hts
short term... Ads
long term... Bjl
aviation... Hts bjl ads
marine... Hts bjl ads
tides coastal flooding... Hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 1 mi33 min S 2.9 G 4.1 76°F 1013.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 6 mi33 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 73°F1012.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi45 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 74°F 1013.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi33 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 22 mi39 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 78°F 76°F1013 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi39 min 76°F 76°F1012.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi51 min S 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 73°F1012.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 28 mi39 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 74°F1012.7 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi39 min Calm G 1.9 76°F 75°F1011.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi51 min NW 12 G 14 68°F 70°F1015.4 hPa (+2.0)68°F
44063 - Annapolis 40 mi39 min NNW 7.8 G 7.8 71°F 71°F1013.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi33 min 71°F 1013 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi39 min 70°F 70°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi39 min WNW 5.1 G 8 79°F 74°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD7 mi59 minSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F73°F88%1012.7 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD9 mi69 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1013.9 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi58 minN 06.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain78°F72°F82%1012.5 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi66 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS43NW25
G38
SW4SW7SW11SW8W6W7W8NW7NW7N7NW6SE5SE9W9SE4NE10SE4S6SW5CalmSW3
1 day agoCalmCalmW4E5SE11SE9SE9E8E9SE11SE9SE10SE11SE12SE12SE13
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2 days agoSW9SW11SW9W10SW11SW10W11W10NW9NW10NW14NW15NW20NW18NW16NW16NW12NW15N10N6N6N7CalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:02 AM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:11 PM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.40.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.