Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stafford Courthouse, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:52PM Saturday December 16, 2017 1:42 PM EST (18:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:38AMMoonset 4:05PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1231 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1231 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build south of the waters through the weekend. A backdoor cold front will approach from the north Sunday, then return north as a warm front Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stafford Courthouse, VA
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location: 38.41, -77.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 161614
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1114 am est Sat dec 16 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the southeast u.S. Today through
early Sunday. A weak backdoor cold front will stall over the
area on Sunday, lifting northward as a warm front on Monday. A
surface trough will cross the region on Tuesday. High pressure
will build over the region from the west northwest through
Thursday before a cold front approaches on Friday.

Near term through tonight
Building high pressure across the southeastern u.S. Is expected
today and tonight. With southwesterly winds expected with the
high to our south, temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees warmer
than we saw yesterday, however remaining near climatological
normal for mid-december in the middle 40s. Mostly clear this
afternoon with no threat of precipitation. Mostly clear skies
and light southwesterly winds tonight will allow temperatures to
bottom out in the upper 20s to near the freezing mark in the
metro areas.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
The aforementioned high pressure area will shift off the
southeast coast on Sunday, keeping winds light and southerly across
our area, moderating temperatures in to the mid to upper 40s.

This southerly flow will help transport moisture across the
region as pieces of mid-level shortwave energy approaches from
the southwest by Sunday evening. This will bring with it
an increase in cloud coverage and the chance of light showers
into early Monday morning, with perhaps a few flakes across our
western and northern zones. Weak forcing and lack of moisture
will result in only light precipitation.

Temperatures will continue to moderate on Monday with highs
reaching in to the lower 50s for most with a light southwesterly
flow. Conditions will remain mostly dry with ample mid to high
level clouds thanks to the proximity of the jet just to our
north and some ragged pieces of mid-level energy passing
overhead. There is a chance of some showers across our western
zones Monday night, but any precipitation will be light and in
a liquid form. Overnight temperatures Monday night will settle
in to the upper 30s to near 40 degrees, some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
The upper air flow pattern for the week ahead will mainly be zonal,
with separate northern and southern streams of the jet. It will be
the southern stream that will be greater interest to the WFO lwx
forecast area, as an impulse of energy traverses the country.

Guidance has backed away from potential storminess Tuesday. A
northern stream shortwave will be too far north to be a big player,
and the southern stream low has not arrived yet. Probably the
biggest issue will be how cloudy it will be, as a jetmax will be
overhead. The northern wave likely will send a trough axis through,
which could support increasing gusty winds.

Then comes the aforementioned wave. The GFS keeps it suppressed to
the south as ridging builds. On the other hand, the ECMWF sends the
energy across virginia, but delayed to Wednesday night-early
Thursday. If this were to happen, then p-type issues would ensue, as
850 mb warm advection would almost certainly result in a warm nose
melting within the column. Have to acknowledge the chance of precip
wed night, and that it won't be pure rain snow.

Beyond that, timing uncertainties magnify as a better amplified
northern stream system approaches. However, pop
amount type timing questions abound. Daytime temps should be
warm enough for just rain. We should be able to wiggle in a dry
day Thursday as there will be ridging behind the southern stream
system. The big question is what to do about precip at night. Am
taking a middle-of-the-road approach until a more definitive
clue can be discovered.

Aviation 16z Saturday through Wednesday
PredominateVFR conditions are expected through Sunday across
the terminals. Gusty southwesterly winds today, gusts 20 to 25
mph, before subsiding this evening. There is a slight chance of
showers Sunday night in to early Monday morning, but only brief
MVFR conditions would likely result.VFR conditions will persist
Monday and Monday night with light southerly winds.

Vfr anticipated tue-wed. Flight restrictions, with possible mixed
precip, may arrive late wed... But there all sorts of uncertainties
with that time frame.

Marine
High pressure will build to our south today, but with a
tightening pressure gradient, expect SCA conditions across our
waters through late afternoon before subsiding below sca
criteria Saturday evening. The gradient will subside Saturday
night and Sunday. A weak disturbance will pass through Sunday
night. Sub SCA conditions expected Monday and Monday night.

West northwest flow Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds may increase behind
a trough axis on Wednesday, which may reach small craft advisory
threshold.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
anz530>534-537-539>541-543.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz535-
536-538-542.

Synopsis... Bkf
near term... Bkf rcm
short term... Bkf
long term... Hts
aviation... Bkf hts rcm
marine... Bkf hts rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 21 mi43 min SW 9.9 G 14 44°F 39°F1019.2 hPa (-2.3)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi43 min S 11 G 15 43°F 39°F1019.3 hPa (-2.6)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi133 min SSW 8.9 40°F 1021 hPa21°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 50 mi43 min W 6 G 8.9

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA3 mi68 minSSW 710.00 miFair46°F22°F40%1021.3 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA9 mi1.8 hrsS 1610.00 miFair43°F28°F58%1021 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA10 mi68 minSW 6 G 1110.00 miFair45°F24°F45%1020.3 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA20 mi68 minSSW 11 G 1510.00 miFair46°F16°F31%1019.3 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA22 mi1.8 hrsSSW 12 G 1710.00 miFair43°F21°F42%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW4CalmSW3SW6
G14
SW9S7SW9
G15
1 day ago--N8N7N8NE4N6N4NE3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5E4E4E3E3N5NW5
2 days agoSW6SW6SW5S3S3S6S5S6S6S5S4S5S5S4S6SW8SW9NW6CalmCalmCalmN13
G17
N12
G21
N14
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:15 AM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:33 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:45 PM EST     1.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:12 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.60.811.11.10.90.80.60.3000.30.60.81.11.31.41.31.10.90.60.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Clifton Beach, Potomac River, Maryland
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Clifton Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:39 AM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:40 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:27 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.60.911.10.90.60.30.1-0-0.10.10.40.711.21.21.10.90.60.30.1-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.