Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aquia Harbour, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:54PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 3:27 PM EST (20:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:16AMMoonset 8:22PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1233 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front is pressing east of the area this morning with high pressure returning later today through early Friday. Another cold front will approach late Friday into Saturday before passing through Saturday night. High pressure will return for Sunday and Monday. A small craft advisory may be needed for the waters late Saturday and Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquia Harbour CDP, VA
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location: 38.42, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 221531
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1031 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
A cold front is pressing east of the area this morning with high
pressure returning later today through early Friday. Another cold
front will approach late Friday into Saturday before passing through
Saturday night. High pressure will return for Sunday and Monday. A
small craft advisory may be needed for the waters late Saturday and
Sunday.

Near term through tonight
A cold front is located over southwest pennsylvania into west
virginia as of 3 am this morning. The cold front will pass
through our area over the next few hours from west to east. At
the same time... Southern stream moisture is advecting north into
our area. The southern stream moisture is most likely to make
it into areas near and east of interstate 95. Therefore... A
period of rain is most likely across these areas early this
morning with the frontal passage.

The front will move off to the south and east by mid-morning
and high pressure will approach from the midwest and great
lakes. A potent shortwave will pass by to our north during this
time... But with most of the dynamics remaining to the north it
should not have an impact on our weather. Therefore... Increasing
sunshine and gusty northwest winds are expected ahead of the
building high. MAX temps are a little tricky to forecast since
there will be cold advection behind the cold front... But that
will be offset by increasing sunshine and mixing along with a
downsloping flow. Did tweak the hourly trend in temps a little
away from the typical diurnal trend. Feel that MAX temps will
occur late this morning to around noon before holding steady and
even falling during the middle afternoon hours. MAX temps are
most likely to range from the lower to middle 30s along the
ridge tops of the allegheny highlands... To the mid and upper 40s
for most of northern maryland into the shenandoah valley... To
the middle 50s near washington and baltimore... To the upper 50s
and even near 60 in central virginia into southern maryland.

Also of note... There will be a period of snow showers through
mid-morning for locations along west of the allegheny front.

Moisture will be limited... But an upslope component along with a
higher subsidence inversion will cause some accumulation above
2000 feet. Accumulations around an inch or less are most likely
before snow showers taper off by late morning.

High pressure will build overhead tonight and winds will
decrease around sunset for most areas. Winds will become light
overnight and with dry air and mainly clear skies this will
provide a great setup for radiational cooling. Min temps will
range from the upper teens and lower 20s in sheltered valleys
and rural areas west of the blue ridge mountains... To the mid
and upper 20s across most other locations to the lower and
middle 30s in downtown washington and baltimore.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
High pressure will remain overhead thanksgiving day and
thanksgiving night... Bringing dry and chilly conditions along
with mainly clear skies. High pressure will shift to the east
coast Friday and move offshore Friday night. A southerly flow
will return during this time. MAX temps will be a bit warmer
Friday... But still near or even slightly below climo. More dry
conditions are expected during this time. Friday night will be
seasonably chilly... But not as cold as thanksgiving night.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Long term period starts out Saturday with a ridge west trough
east pattern, but by the end it completely flips, with trough
west ridge east by Tuesday. At the surface, this will translate
into a cold frontal passage on Saturday, followed by high
pressure progressing slowly east across the region Sunday
through Tuesday. In many ways, surface features Saturday will
mirror what is happening tonight. As with tonight, one thing to
watch Saturday is a coastal low pressure which will also be
moving northeast along the carolina coast. Should this system
end up a bit further northwest, it could spread some rain into
the region, but unlike tonight, most guidance keeps this system
well to the southeast, completely separated from the
approaching northern stream shortwave and surface cold front.

This means that right now, we think the cold frontal passage
should be dry for most of the cwa. We will likely moderate
thanks to southwesterly flow just ahead of the cold front,
resulting in Saturday being rather like yesterday was... Breezy
with some clouds and temps well into the 50s, perhaps even low
60s. Along and behind the front, some showers will affect the
northwestern and western portions of the cwa, primarily the
higher terrain, and much like today, these will change to snow
showers behind the front, which in this case will occur on
Saturday night. However, the system is fast moving, so do not
expect significant accumulations even in the favored upslope
regions. Chilly and breezy but mostly dry Sunday with high
pressure starting to build in... Any lingering upslope snow
showers will be winding down. Most areas will not get out of
the 40s. On Monday, high pressure crosses the region, but temps
remain chilly with the trough just starting to exit aloft, so
only slight warming. By Tuesday, however, southwest flow will
start again in earnest as the high slides off the coast, and
moderation will become more apparent, with highs returning to
the 50s most likely.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
A cold front moved across the terminals earlier this morning,
ushering in gusty northwest winds in its wake. The gusty winds
will continue through the afternoon with frequent gusts around
20 to 25 knots with a few gusts up to 30 knots. Winds are
expected to diminish within a couple hours after sunset.

High pressure will build over the terminals tonight through
Thursday night... BringingVFR conditions and lighter winds.

Winds will turn to the south later Friday and Friday night as
high pressure shifts offshore.

Saturday and Sunday look mainlyVFR for now, with a gusty wind
(perhaps up to 30 knots at times) starting southwest, then
switching to northwest behind a cold front later Saturday. These
winds likely persist Sunday. A coastal low will be sliding
northeast off the coast on Saturday, but right now effects look
minimal to non-existent. If it ends up closer, a period of sub-
vfr would be possible on Saturday due to rain, but odds of this
look low right now.

Marine
As of 10am, a cold front has passed east of the chesapeake bay,
bringing gusty northwesterly winds in its wake. High pressure
will approach from the north and west today before building
overhead tonight through thanksgiving night. An SCA is in
effect for all waters today, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots
likely. The winds will gradually diminish tonight... But an sca
is still in effect for most of the bay and lower tidal potomac
river. Winds will continue to diminish for thanksgiving as the
high settles overhead.

High pressure will shift offshore Friday through Friday night
and a southerly flow will return... But winds should remain below
sca criteria for most of the time since the gradient will be
weak.

Cold front crossing the area Saturday will bring southwest
winds which then switch northwest by Saturday night, lingering
Sunday. These are likely to reach SCA criteria and could be near
gale, but confidence is not high on this.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz531>534-
537-539>541-543.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz530-
535-536-538-542.

Synopsis... Bjl bkf
near term... Bjl bkf
short term... Bjl
long term... Rcm
aviation... Bjl rcm bkf
marine... Bjl rcm bkf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 18 mi39 min NNW 14 G 20 53°F 51°F1015.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 36 mi39 min NNW 6 G 15 51°F 48°F1017.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 42 mi57 min NNW 8.9 52°F 1016 hPa31°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi39 min NNW 22 G 24
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 48 mi39 min NNW 15 G 20 53°F 54°F1015.8 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA6 mi52 minNNW 17 G 2310.00 miFair51°F29°F43%1018.6 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA7 mi4.5 hrsN 19 G 2710.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy59°F36°F42%1016.1 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA12 mi52 minNNW 13 G 2610.00 miFair54°F32°F43%1016.9 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA23 mi91 minNNW 15 G 2210.00 miFair52°F30°F43%1018.9 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA23 mi91 minWNW 17 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds53°F29°F39%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7
G20
S6S5S3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3W10CalmNW4N10
G16
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1 day agoW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7S12
G16
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S8
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2 days agoNW11
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W5CalmCalmW3CalmW3W5NW5NW5N7NW3CalmCalmNW4NW3CalmS5SW5W5SW6W7SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:38 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:12 AM EST     0.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:40 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:38 PM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.30.100.20.50.70.90.90.90.70.50.40.20.100.20.60.91.11.21.31.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Quantico Creek, Virginia
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Quantico Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:15 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:23 AM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:54 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:22 PM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.20.10.10.30.711.21.31.210.70.40.10.10.10.40.71.11.31.41.41.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.