Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick Island, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:13PM Monday January 21, 2019 1:28 PM EST (18:28 UTC) Moonrise 5:55PMMoonset 7:36AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Expires:201901220615;;708653 Fzus51 Kphi 211816 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 116 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz454-455-220615- Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 116 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
.low water advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.freezing spray advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..NW winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft dominant period 6 seconds. Freezing spray.
Tonight..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft late. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Light freezing spray.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late in the morning, then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt early in the afternoon, becoming W late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Light freezing spray until late afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..S winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 116 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Deep low pressure will remain across the canadian maritimes today while arctic high pressure builds towards the area. The high will crest over the area Tuesday before heading out to sea. Low pressure will move into the upper great lakes region Wednesday and then down the saint lawrence valley Thursday. Its associated fronts will affect the middle atlantic region both days. More high pressure will follow for Friday and Saturday. A coastal storm may affect our weather next Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick Island, DE
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location: 38.43, -75.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 211805
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
105 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Deep low pressure will remain across the canadian maritimes today
while arctic high pressure builds towards the area. The high will
crest over the area Tuesday before heading out to sea. Low pressure
will move into the upper great lakes region Wednesday and then down
the saint lawrence valley Thursday. Its associated fronts will affect
the middle atlantic region both days. More high pressure will follow
for Friday and Saturday. A coastal storm may affect our weather next
Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1 pm update... We have allowed the wind chill advisory to expire
and converted the wind chill warning for carbon and monroe to an
advisory and extended it to 6 am Tuesday.

920 am update... No major changes to the forecast with this
update... Just some minor adjustments to hourly temperature and
sky cover grids based on latest obs and trends.

Previous discussion: bundle up! Today is the day we get the
full effect of the cold front that moved through yesterday. In
the wake of the cold front that moved through yesterday,
temperatures will be about 20 to 25 degrees below normal, with
highs today around 30 degrees lower than Sunday's highs.

As for winds, the pressure gradient will remain quite strong through
the day. However, pressure rises will be decreasing, and with it the
isallobaric component of the wind. Therefore, will continue with a
wind advisory only over the eastern coastal plains and portions of
delmarva. Further northwest, have kept the forecast just below wind
advisory criteria for now, but will be watching this closely through
the morning.

The combination of these temperatures and winds will mean very low
wind chills. Many locations will not see wind chills above 0 through
the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Pressure gradient finally begins to relax this evening, and with it,
we should see winds drop off significantly. Even so, with
temperatures in the single digits and winds still in the 10 to 20
mph range overnight, some locations could reach wind chill advisory
criteria for a second night in a row. The areas most at risk for
this are the southern poconos and northwestern nj. For now though,
will hold off on issuing a second wind chill advisory until the
current one expires.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
The arctic high pressure that has brought the cold temperatures will
be centered across the region Tuesday morning with the coldest air
already have passed thru the area. Gentle warm advection will begin
Tuesday with highs still below normal, but more than 10 degrees
milder than Monday. Winds chills will still be very cold in the
morning, but moderate by day's end. Fair weather is expected tue
and Tue night with increasing clouds Tue night. Temperatures tue
night will remain steady or slowly climb.

Precipitation will arrive across the area Wednesday as low pressure
moves into the upper great lakes area and its associated fronts
approach. By in large, precipitation will be rain for most areas.

The exception will be Wed morning and possibly into the early
afternoon where some mixed precip could occur for for the areas N w
of the delaware valley. Right now, we are calling for some light ice
accums across the southern poconos and northern nj, but the forecast
for precip type and amounts is rather low confid attm. We could
end up adding some snow for the poconos in future fcsts, but at
this time only a light accum would be expected. Any small delay
in arrival time would limit any mixed precip even occurring. We
will have a better handle on this p-type issue later today or
tonight. Warm air will continue to overspread all areas later
wed, so all rain is expected Wed afternoon and into Thursday. A
cold front will cross later Thu ending the precip, but bringing
in cooler temperatures again. We will continue with the likely
and categorical pops. QPF will again be in the 1 to 2 inch
range for the wed-thu period.

Mostly fair weather is expected from Thu night into the first half
of the weekend. More cold air will arrive behind the departing
system for Fri sat. This cold air will not be the deep arctic chill
that we are presently experiencing however. Readings will be 5 or so
degrees below normal Fri and perhaps 10-12 degrees below normal for
Saturday. Another short spell of cold air with moderating temps
and a renewed chc for precipitation for next Sunday and into
Monday. The latest 00z models are showing varying solutions, not
surprising. So mostly chc pops in the fcst for now. The ec cmc
are showing a coastal system for this period while the gfs
pushes the energy offshore with no development.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions. Gusty northwest winds continue with gusts up
to 40 kt possible at times at kacy and kmiv. At other TAF sites,
gusts up to 35 kt are possible.

Tonight...VFR conditions northwest winds should be gradually
diminishing to near or below 20 kt.

Outlook...

tue Tue night...VFR. Increasing clouds Tue night. Light winds.

Wed Wed night thu... Sub-vfr with lowering CIGS and rain with
some snow N W Wed morning. South winds around 10 knots.

Thu night... Improving conditions. Chance for snow N W rain S e.

Fri... MostlyVFR expected.

Marine
Gale force gusts are expected to continue at least into this
evening. Through the evening we should see winds begin to decrease
and by late this evening, winds may be below gale force on the
delaware bay. On the atlantic coastal waters, gale force gusts are
likely to continue for much of the night.

Another concern is freezing spray, in fact the first significant
freezing spray event of the season. Moderate freezing spray has
already developed. On the upper delaware bay, heavy freezing spray
has already developed, where the freezing spray advisory has been
upgraded to a warning. It is possible that localized heavy freezing
spray will occur in other locations through the day. However, at
this point, it is unlikely it will be widespread. Therefore,
continued with a freezing spray advisory on the rest of the waters.

Freezing spray is likely to continue at least as long as gales
continue.

Finally, our last marine concern today into tonight is the potential
for low water levels. Thanks to the full moon today and the strong
off shore flow, water levels at the time of low tide will be much
lower than normal. At this point, the area with the biggest risk of
reaching at least 2 feet below mllw is the delaware bay, where a low
water advisory has been issued. On the atlantic coastal waters,
although we will be below mllw at the time of low tide, it looks
like we should stay just above criteria, so will hold off on a low
water advisory at this time. On the tidal delaware river, it could
also get close, but will hold off for now, until we see how tidal
forecasts verify on the delaware bay.

Outlook..

Lowering winds and seas with high pressure for Tue and tue
night. Fair weather expected.

Wed-fri... SCA conditions expected much of the time. Rain wed-
thu. Fair Thu night and fri.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind chill advisory until 6 am est Tuesday for paz054-055.

Nj... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for njz012>014-
020>027.

De... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for dez002>004.

Md... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for mdz015-019-020.

Marine... Freezing spray advisory until 4 am est Tuesday for anz450>455.

Gale warning until 4 am est Tuesday for anz450>455.

Heavy freezing spray warning until midnight est tonight for
anz430.

Low water advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz430-431.

Gale warning until midnight est tonight for anz430-431.

Freezing spray advisory until midnight est tonight for anz431.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Fitzsimmons johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'hara
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 7 mi41 min NNW 24 G 31 38°F1024.5 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 20 mi39 min 44°F8 ft1022.9 hPa (+1.4)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 25 mi41 min NW 28 G 35 34°F1023.6 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 38 mi41 min NW 31 G 43 18°F 33°F1022.6 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 39 mi41 min 1023.3 hPa
44089 49 mi29 min 42°F5 ft

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD9 mi36 minNW 15 G 3110.00 miFair22°F-2°F35%1024 hPa
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE24 mi35 minNW 13 G 2710.00 miFair22°F-6°F29%1024.1 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi35 minWNW 19 G 3110.00 miFair and Breezy21°F-2°F34%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from OXB (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE6E7SE7SE9SE12
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2 days agoN8NW5N93N3NW4N4N5N6CalmSW3CalmCalmNW3CalmN3NW3NE3CalmE7E7E5SE8E6

Tide / Current Tables for Fenwick Island Light, Delaware
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Fenwick Island Light
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Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 01:09 AM EST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     4.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:59 PM EST     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:55 PM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.7-0.50.51.93.34.34.84.63.92.71.40.3-0.6-0.9-0.50.51.833.843.62.71.5

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 12:44 AM EST     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:20 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:27 AM EST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:28 PM EST     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:10 PM EST     1.74 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:15 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-1.6-1.2-0.30.71.5221.50.7-0.2-1-1.6-1.9-1.9-1.4-0.40.51.31.71.610.2-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.