Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick Island, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:20PM Monday March 25, 2019 1:59 AM EDT (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 9:04AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Expires:201903251315;;872315 Fzus51 Kphi 250113 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 913 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz454-455-251315- Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 913 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday evening through Wednesday morning...
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late in the morning, then becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers late in the morning. A chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 5 ft early in the evening. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers likely until early morning, then a chance of showers late.
Tue..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 913 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will settle across the region tonight into Monday. A weak area of low pressure is then expected to develop along the front and track just south of our region Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then builds into the region Tuesday and remains in place through Friday. The next cold front arrives later next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick Island, DE
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location: 38.43, -75.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250124
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will settle across the region tonight into Monday.

A weak area of low pressure is then expected to develop along the
front and track just south of our region Monday night into
Tuesday. High pressure then builds into the region Tuesday and
remains in place through Friday. The next cold front arrives later
next weekend.

Near term through Monday
No major changes with the 930 pm update. Forecast still looks on
track.

Clouds will continue to increase during the overnight hours as a
cold front approaches, then crosses the forecast area, positioning
itself south of the area Monday morning. Moisture with this system
is limited, so only scattered light rain showers or sprinkles are
expected with the frontal passage itself, mainly toward morning,
along with a wind shift to the north.

With the cloud cover and a weak southerly flow for much of the
overnight period, low temperatures will range from the low to mid
30s in the far north to the mid 40s south, a good ten degrees warmer
than last night and 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time
of year.

Short term Monday night through 6 pm Monday
Low pressure from the ohio and tennessee river valleys is expected
to move north along the cold front positioned just to our south,
bringing an increased chance of rain showers to the southern two-
thirds of the forecast area, mainly south of the i-95 i-195
corridor, later Monday afternoon and Monday night. Temperatures will
be warm enough for precipitation to fall as all rain. A weak
northeasterly flow Monday morning will become stronger as the low
approaches the va nc coast line later in the day. Expect highs in
the low 40s north and mid to upper 50s south.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
Monday night-Tuesday... A mid-lvl wave will pass south of the
area overnight Monday concurrent with the longwave trough
centered east of hudson bay sagging southward over the area.

Lift associated with this wave combined with modest low-lvl
convergence will spark precipitation over the southern part of the
area Monday night. Progging the northward extent of the
precipitation is tricky as the airmass will be rapidly drying
from n-s Monday night into Tuesday morning due to increasing northerly
flow resulting from high pressure building over the great lakes
coincident with cyclogenesis to our SE over the atlantic.

Lower-resolution guidance typically struggles with these low-
lvl dry air setups and thus leaned more towards the NAM 3km and
cmc reg for pops this package and didn't go as far north with
higher pops as the ec GFS fv3 would suggest. This essentially
confines likely pops to DELMARVA south of new castle cecil
counties, and far southern nj near CAPE may. Can't rule out
precipitation making it up to about philadelphia but think the
dry air will filter in too quickly for the northern half of the
cwa to get anything Monday night. Although currently expect most
of the precipitation will be rain, can't rule out some snow
mixing in at the tail end early Tuesday morning (although this
wouldn't accumulate). Snow potential will largely depend upon
how long precipitation lingers in the face of the dry air
advection (e.G. The NAM solution would be the most favorable for
snow but the NAM is also the slowest piece of guidance).

Precipitation in the south should end by or before daybreak
Tuesday as both the mid-lvl wave and the associated sfc low move
out to sea. Tuesday will be quiet with a dry airmass in place,
although it will be somewhat cool (highs about 10 degrees below
normal), as continued cold advection persists as the sfc. High
moves just to our nw.

Wednesday... Quiet as high pressure moves overhead.

Temperatures warm a few degrees but are still a bit below
normal.

Thursday Friday... The aforementioned high pressure moves out
to sea by early Thursday with flow turning more southerly. This
will result in a notable warm up on Thursday (apart from the
immediate coast where the warm up will be more moderated) with
highs getting back to near normal (upper 50s, maybe even low
60s). Moisture begins to increase over the area late Thursday
although this will be mostly confined to the mid-lvls.

The warm up continues on Friday as southerly flow prevails.

Highs should reach the mid to upper 60s in most locations apart
from the immediate coast. Given additional moisture advection
combined with increased heating, can't rule out a shower or
thunderstorm across the far northwest but confidence is low at
this point
Saturday Sunday... Guidance begins to diverge on solutions for
next weekend, as the pattern locally will depend upon the
evolution of shortwave energy over the western us and this
energy's interaction with a sagging longwave trough over
northern canada. The general trend has been to further amplify
the shortwave & phase it with part of the northern trough before
moving it through the area. However the degree of amplification
will largely dictate the speed of the feature and any
associated fronts or precipitation and this is not agreed upon
at this time. Consequently broadbrushed pops in this period as
both prefrontal convection and precipitation associated with a
cold front would be possible.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Increasing clouds. Southwest winds around 10 knots
early, becoming variable 6 knots or less during the late evening
hours.

Monday...VFR ceilings, but MVFR conditions possible by afternoon,
especially near south of phl to miv as showers associated with a low
pressure system move in from the southwest. North to northeast winds
around 10 knots.Outlook... Monday...VFR ceilings, however a
period of MVFR possible with light rain mainly near and south of
ilg to miv. Any rain ends by late Monday night. North to
northeast winds 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Monday night to Tuesday morning... MVFR conditions possible in
primarily rain at phl and southward. Conditions improving NW to
se with all terminals likelyVFR by 12z Tuesday. Northeast
winds 10-15 kts (highest at acy).

Tuesday-FridayVFR conditions expected to prevail. Northerly
winds on Tuesday become light and variable by Wednesday,
eventually turning southerly by Thursday.

Marine
Tonight and Monday... High pressure will continue to influence
the coastal waters of new jersey and delaware through a good
portion of the overnight hours. However, a cold front will begin
moving across the northern waters after midnight, reaching the
coastal waters of delaware Monday morning. A southwest wind 10
to 15 knots will dominate prior to this frontal passage, then
veer to the north- northeast soon after. 2 to 3 foot waves are
expected.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... SCA conditions expected to develop over
southern and central atlantic marine areas with northerly northeasterly
wind gusts up to 30 knots and seas increasing to 5-6 ft.

Northern nj coastal waters and delaware bay will be more
marginal however there will be a window for SCA conditions
Tuesday morning. Northeasterly winds increase later Monday
night and Tuesday morning with gusts up to 30 knots (especially
on the atlantic coastal waters to perhaps lower delaware bay),
then winds should diminish some from north to south later
Tuesday. Seas will also build due to the increased northeast
flow.

Wednesday through Friday... SCA seas may linger in southern
ocean zones Wednesday morning however after that point sub-sca
conditions are expected to prevail through the period.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am to 11 pm edt Tuesday for anz451-
452.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm Monday to 8 am edt Wednesday
for anz453>455.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Johnson miketta
short term... Miketta
long term... Carr
aviation... Carr miketta
marine... Carr miketta


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCSM2 6 mi180 min 1 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 7 mi48 min 51°F 45°F1019.1 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 20 mi70 min 44°F2 ft1018.9 hPa (-1.6)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 25 mi48 min 52°F 45°F1018 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 38 mi48 min 46°F 46°F1017.7 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 39 mi42 min 1018.4 hPa
44089 49 mi30 min 45°F3 ft

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD9 mi67 minSW 1210.00 miFair53°F42°F66%1018.7 hPa
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE24 mi66 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F37°F59%1018.3 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi66 minSSW 710.00 miFair51°F39°F66%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from OXB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmNW6W3W4W5W44NW6W8W8S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Fenwick Island Light, Delaware
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Fenwick Island Light
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Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:00 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.43.82.81.70.70-0.20.21.12.12.93.53.83.52.71.80.90.30.10.31.12.133.7

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:24 AM EDT     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:09 AM EDT     1.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:39 PM EDT     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:27 PM EDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.6-0.1-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.4-1-0.30.41.11.41.20.80.2-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.30.411.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.